Health threats pose significant dangers to humankind and form a major source of human suffering and sorrow. Responsible leadership and reasoned decision making can significantly improve the arenas that are affected by health threats, through establishing a better allocation of very scarce resources for building health capabilities and for increasing health preparedness, responsiveness and resilience. This book examines how public health leaders can use the cutting-edge research from Decision Sciences to better manage emerging and re-emerging health threats, with a focus on enhancing health security. While these decisions must be informed by the best available evidence, they must also address competing priorities and key uncertainties and must mitigate critical risks, albeit in a cost-effective manner which seeks to maximize societal value. This is a book about how decisions on health security can be improved, both in terms of the content that is utilized in a health decision analysis and the decision processes that are employed in reaching a decision. This decision-focused perspective can help public health leaders and public health experts to increase the health preparedness of health systems, the task of which involves improving health capabilities, increasing the robustness of health systems against health threats, as well as strengthening health resilience and the responsiveness of these systems against disease outbreaks.

Covers both multicriteria decision and multiobjective optimization and helps readers understanding the mathematics behind the methods Includes several levels of exercises and solutions aiming the developing of readers' problem-solving skills and to promote concepts retention Designed for a 12 weeks course in multiple attribute decision modelling taken by advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in the mathematical sciences, engineering, and economics and management Includes supplementary teaching materials as slides presentations and self-evaluation exercises Provides models built in GAMS that can be solved and analysed with the software free version

This book aims to assess what the changes of the Treaty of Lisbon envisaged and whether these ambitions have materialised since the Treaty entered into force. It offers analyses of the past, as well as what might be the future (because some provisions will only enter into effect in the years to come). To what extent has the current decision-making process been able to address the shortcomings and challenges of the past? What has been the impact of aspects of the Lisbon Treaty that clarified pre-existing norms and structures, in some cases formalizing them, rather than introducing new changes? The authors of this book look at the interaction between formal rules and informal practices, seeking to point to the interaction between the two. They find that informal practices to date typically still dominate formal rules. This book was published as a special issue of West European Politics.

Here is a comprehensive guide to the incorporation of computer simulation in all levels of the planning function of an organization. Writing for managers of planning, planners, and programmers, the author enables readers to gain an overall understanding of the potential role of simulation in planning, to apply simulation to their own particular needs, and to translate planning concepts into computer instructions. Nersesian demonstrates that for manager, planner, and programmer alike, simulation is not difficult in concept nor complicated to put into practice. The author argues that simulation is a necessary activity in a planning environment characterized by uncertain futures and rapidly changing conditions.

The book is organized into separate chapters, each of which acts as a case study of an aspect in the use of simulation. The synopsis that begins every chapter provides the manager of a planning operation with an appreciation of the general application of simulation to one facet of planning. The chapters themselves focus on particular situations which might befall a planner within the general application of simulation to the planning process. Special appendices--designed to aid programmers who have not had much previous experience in setting up simulation programs--follow each chapter and provide descriptive material and the applicable simulation program. As a comprehensive yet easily understood guide to the benefits of utilizing simulation in the planning process, this book will be an invaluable resource for planners, corporate executives, and programmers.

As a manager or executive, you don't want to make mistakes. You want to make the right decisions that will help your career and business progress. However, no one is free from making mistakes, especially as the world and business becomes ever more complex. In fact, most managers and executives make their decisions without being aware of the clues that separate the right decisions from the wrong ones. This book unravels the mystery that lies between success and failure, focusing on management mistakes. It uncovers the reasons behind most decision errors and shows how to deal with them successfully. It proposes a better approach to goal setting, risk assessment, context analysis, information processing, number crunching and personnel management. It also gives the keys to overcoming the long list of cognitive biases that managers suffer from (whether they know it or not). The book is written from the diverse and rich experience of the author and is based on the examples of dozens of real business mistakes.

Drawing on the innovative concept of Organizational IQ and a study of companies in seventeen countries, Survival of the Smartest charts a course for managers to follow into the twenty-first century.

At the heart of the book is the authors' tool for assessing an organization's future health, which they call Organizational IQ. It measures a company's ability to quickly process information and make effective decisions. As industry clock speeds accelerate everywhere, a high IQ has become a prerequisite for survival. Low IQ companies that the authors studied, on the other hand, have already vanished.

Case studies from Hewlett-Packard, British Petroleum, Sun Microsystems, and Chrysler, among others, illustrate how companies can improve their Organizational IQs. How did Hewlett-Packard become the dominant player in printing? How did British Petroleum transform itself from a stodgy behemoth into the most agile and competitive player in the oil industry? How did Chrysler rise from the brink of bankruptcy to become the auto industry's prized asset?

In these companies, technology by itself played only a secondary role: to be successful, the entire organization had to become smarter. The authors show how key strategic decisions turned around these companies' Organizational IQs—and with it, their fortunes. A detailed company case study takes you in slow motion through the different steps you can take to improve the IQ of your own organization.

Survival of the Smartest offers a rare blend of a coherent framework, in-depth company case studies, a sound research base, and a detailed, step-by-step implementation example. Based on a landmark study of 164 organizations worldwide, conducted as part of a partnership between Stanford University, McKinsey & Company, and the University of Augsburg, Organizational IQ is proving to be the acid test for the success or failure of companies around the world.

"Survival of the Smartest is a practical and action-oriented road map for managing in the Information Age. It can save you much pain by tapping into the experience of managers who have done it before."—Eric Benhamou, CEO, 3Com

"Most executives acknowledge that they need to prepare their organizations for the challenges of the 21st century. But how do you know where you stand and what are the most important levers for improvement? Survival of the Smartest is a must read for any manager who is looking for answers to these questions."—Guenter Mooshammer, Senior Vice President, Vishay Semiconductor

"Mendelson and Ziegler brilliantly capture the character of organizations smart enough to function successfully in a turbulent world. Loaded with powerful concepts and how companies have successfully applied them, Survival of the Smartest will teach you how to create a "High-IQ" company and avoid the traps that make good companies mediocre."—Jerry Porras, Lane Professor of Organizational Behavior, Stanford Business School, and coauthor, Built to Last.

"Professor Mendelson and Dr. Ziegler make it abundantly clear that if your organization is not on the path to becoming a high-IQ company, then it is probably on the road to extinction. This book packs a lot of wisdom that is eminently useful to companies large and small, hi-tech and low-tech. With a solid research base at Stanford Business School and loads of real-world experience, Survival of the Smartest captures essential truths for management in the Information Age."—Charles Fine, Professor, Sloan School of Management, MIT, and author of Clockspeed: Winning Industry Control in the Age of Temporary Advantage.

"This book shows how winning information-age firms can turn speed from a potential problem into a weapon and turn a flood of information into a competitive advantage."—Scott Cook, cofounder, Intuit, Inc.

"Survival of the Smartest is a comprehensive set of tools for measuring the IQ of your organization and systematically improving an organization's ability to learn. I found the book to be both a pragmatic and practical way to hone the competitiveness of any company."—John McHugh, General Manager, Hewlett-Packard ProCurve Networking Business

The book discusses a new approach to the classification problem following the decision support orientation of multicriteria decision aid. The book reviews the existing research on the development of classification methods, investigating the corresponding model development procedures, and providing a thorough analysis of their performance both in experimental situations and real-world problems from the field of finance.
Audience: Researchers and professionals working in management science, decision analysis, operations research, financial/banking analysis, economics, statistics, computer science, as well as graduate students in management science and operations research.

Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond "narrow" technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. Additionally, there has been very rapid growth in recent years in evolutionary Multiobjective optimization, stochastic analysis, robustness, and regression-based methods, and thus, the need for a look at the newest trends in the field.

This volume is in effect the third book in the Springer ISOR series by these editors, bringing the latest developments in MCDM into focus. It presents research from leaders in the field on such topics as Problem Structuring Methodologies; Measurement Theory and MCDA; Recent Developments in Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization; Habitual Domains and Dynamic MCDM in Changeable Spaces; Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis; and more.

Providing a comprehensive framework for building an effective fraud prevention model, "Fraud Risk Assessment: Building a Fraud Audit Program" presents a readable overview for developing fraud audit procedures and building controls that successfully minimize fraud. An invaluable reference for auditors, fraud examiners, investigators, CFOs, controllers, corporate attorneys, and accountants, this book helps business leaders respond to the risk of asset misappropriation fraud and uncover fraud in core business systems.

This book demonstrates the theoretical value and practical significance of systems science and its logic of thinking by presenting a rigorously developed foundation-a tool for intuitive reasoning, which is supported by both theory and empirical evidence, as well as practical applications in business decision making. Following a foundation of general systems theory, the book presents an applied method to intuitively learn system-sciences fundamentals. The third and final part examines applications of the yoyo model and the theoretical results developed earlier within the context of problems facing business decision makers by organically combining methods of traditional science, the first dimension of science, with those of systems science, the second dimension, as argued by George Klir in the 1990s. This text would benefit graduate students, researchers, or practitioners in the areas of mathematics, systems science or engineering, economics, and business decision science.

This book provides an overview of the nascent field of "information pooling and group judgmental accuracy." The contributors to this volume include mathematical psychologists, economists, social psychologists, political scientists, and statisticians. The book is organised around five review essays: one on information pooling from the perspective of models of individual judgment (Batchelder), one on information pooling and group judgment (Grofman and Owen), one on group judgment in applied settings (Hastie), and one on organisational design (Radner). Along with the review essays discussant comments are also provided which elaborate on points not covered in the essays. While the focus of these papers is largely theoretical and abstract, the subject of information pooling and optimal group judgment is clearly one of great practical importance and is directly relevant to issues of policy choice and organisational structure.

This book systematically examines and quantifies industrial problems by assessing the complexity and safety of large systems. It includes chapters on system performance management, software reliability assessment, testing, quality management, analysis using soft computing techniques, management analytics, and business analytics, with a clear focus on exploring real-world business issues. Through contributions from researchers working in the area of performance, management, and business analytics, it explores the development of new methods and approaches to improve business by gaining knowledge from bulk data. With system performance analytics, companies are now able to drive performance and provide actionable insights for each level and for every role using key indicators, generate mobile-enabled scorecards, time series-based analysis using charts, and dashboards. In the current dynamic environment, a viable tool known as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly being adopted to deal with complex business decisions. MCDA is an important decision support tool for analyzing goals and providing optimal solutions and alternatives. It comprises several distinct techniques, which are implemented by specialized decision-making packages. This book addresses a number of important MCDA methods, such as DEMATEL, TOPSIS, AHP, MAUT, and Intuitionistic Fuzzy MCDM, which make it possible to derive maximum utility in the area of analytics. As such, it is a valuable resource for researchers and academicians, as well as practitioners and business experts.

"Energy Budgets at Risk" "(EBar)"(R) provides everyone from facility energy managers and financial managers to government policy-makers and electric utilities program planners with the background information required to understand energy cost, price, efficiency, and related issues important in developing a balanced approach to facility energy risk management. Throughout the book, respected energy economist Dr. Jerry Jackson clearly shows how to reduce energy costs and increase cash flows by using risk management concepts developed in the financial industry.

This book is about how models can be developed to represent demand and supply on markets, where the emphasis is on demand models. Its primary focus is on models that can be used by managers to support marketing decisions. Modeling Markets presents a comprehensive overview of the tools and methodologies that managers can use in decision making. It has long been known that even simple models outperform judgments in predicting outcomes in a wide variety of contexts. More complex models potentially provide insights about structural relations not available from casual observations. In this book, the authors present a wealth of insights developed at the forefront of the field, covering all key aspects of specification, estimation, validation and use of models. The most current insights and innovations in quantitative marketing are presented, including in-depth discussion of Bayesian estimation methods. Throughout the book, the authors provide examples and illustrations. This book will be of interest to researchers, analysts, managers and students who want to understand, develop or use models of marketing phenomena.

This is a book about the evaluation and choice of information sources by individuals and the design and management of information systems by organizations. The book studies the determinants of the value and cost of information, both to the individual and to the organization, provides technqiues for the assessment of the value of information and the comparison of informativeness among alternative sources, and presents principles for the optimal design and management of information systems. These topics are unified by the thesis that both information sources and information systems are valuable to the extent they contribute to better decision making. By providing students, researchers, and practitioners with a coherent notation and framework throughout, the book integrates the decision-theoretic approach to the evaluation of information with knowledge from information science and management information systems on the design, management, and cost of cooperative information systems, thereby demonstrating the multidisciplinary applicability of a unifying approach based on decision theory. Researchers and graduate students in economics, operations research, management information systems, and information science will find this book useful.

Decision-making has been one of the principal victims of 'modern' thinking. The 'analytical' approach has, of course, brought us vaccines, electricity and the internal combustion engine. But, in seeking to break things down into their component parts and improve the parts, governments and businesses continue to make some astonishingly bad decisions. What's more, many enterprises still pay close attention to 'decisions' and 'decision-making' whilst overlooking the bigger picture: the organizational system within which those decisions get made. This elegant book is a guide for any public, private, government or non-profit organization that needs a system for making better decisions. It sets out to change our 'analytical' habit and invites enterprises to consider the bigger picture. Author Vince Barabba presents an elegantly simple approach to making better decisions. He calls this approach 'The Decision Loom' and bases it on Systems Thinking, Design Thinking and Complexity Theory. He also describes the four core capabilities that any organization must put in place for this approach to work. What's more (because we're humans and prefer stories to instruction manuals) the tapestry of the book is embroidered with fascinating examples from the author's lifetime of experience at the head of American corporate and public decision-making.

This book is designed to help MIS and information center managers and their staffs to efficiently and cost effectively meet the needs of end-users in their organizations. Focusing on managerial aspects of information centers, Robert J. Thierauf explores the ways in which new information technology--spreadsheets, query languages, report writers, word processing, etc.--can be placed in the hands of end-users without the interdepartmental conflict and loss of systems control often associated with such transitions.

Set your company up for long-term success. Every company needs a strategy. A focused strategy aligns decision making throughout the organization and helps establish a competitive edge in the marketplace. But with so many options to consider, how do you define a unique strategy that will ensure growth? Whether you're starting a business from scratch or leading an existing company facing new threats, this book offers the direction you need. The HBR Guide to Setting Your Strategy provides practical tips and advice that break down the process of crafting strategy so you can identify the areas your company should build on to help it thrive long into the future. You'll learn to: Understand what strategy is&#8212and what it isn't Define where you'll play and how you'll win Conduct more-effective strategic discussions with your team Test your strategy before you implement it Communicate your strategy to key stakeholders Ensure your strategy is flexible and adaptable Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

There is no denying the global economy is changing at a rapid pace. Competition is increasing in intensity, technology is increasing in complexity, and innovation is increasing in importance, but approaches to managerial decision-making have not kept pace. This rigidity explains such corporate disasters as the blowout, explosion, and fire at the BP drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the total collapse of the residential mortgage industry that started in 2006, and the use of lead paint on children's toys revealed in 2007. Managers today face 21st century problems, and Avoiding Corporate Breakdowns provides the means of solving these very problems.

Optimal Control and Dynamic Games has been edited to honor the outstanding contributions of Professor Suresh Sethi in the fields of Applied Optimal Control. Professor Sethi is internationally one of the foremost experts in this field. He is, among others, co-author of the popular textbook "Sethi and Thompson: Optimal Control Theory: Applications to Management Science and Economics."

The book consists of a collection of essays by some of the best known scientists in the field, covering diverse aspects of applications of optimal control and dynamic games to problems in Finance, Management Science, Economics, and Operations Research. In doing so, it provides both a state-of-the-art overview over recent developments in the field, and a reference work covering the wide variety of contemporary questions that can be addressed with optimal control tools, and demonstrates the fruitfulness of the methodology.

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.