We are in increasingly uncertain times where senior executives are looking for high level and practical business advice from experts and peers on what works - what doesn't and how to navigate their way through the challenges of modern corporate life. Inside the Leaders' Club is based on discussions with business leaders who share their expert tips. It will cover all elements of leadership from how to manage a business to examining what the role of a business leader is in tackling climate change. This book offers leadership advice through the insights of our world class speakers and practical advice through the shared experiences and expertise of the senior executives who are members of the FT Forums - expertly curated, analysed and presented by senior FT editors.

This chapter describes a study conducted at the Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, in their School of Business. The study was to explore the applicability of a judgment-analytic decision support system to the assessment of the likelihood of an applicant being selected for admission to the School's Graduate Certificate in Business Administration (GCBA) program. The likelihood of a program administrator selecting a particular applicant is directly linked to the assessment of the likelihood of that applicant's success in the GCBA program. The purpose of this study, in effect, was to analyze the administrative judgment process in assessment of an applicant's likelihood of success in the program. THE PROCESS OF HUMAN JUDGMENT Human judgment is a process through which an individual uses social infonnation to make decisions. The social infonnation is obtained from an individual's environment and is interpreted through the individual's cognitive image of the environment. The. cognitive image provides a representation of the environment based on past experiences and training, and essentially predisposes the person to respond to social infonnation in predictable ways. An individual's policies or beliefs about the environment represent these patterns. Human judgments are based then upon one's interpretation of available infonnation. They are probability statements about one's environment and how one reacts to it. This condition leads to the human judgment process being inherently limited. It is fundamentally a covert process. It is seldom possible for an individual to accurately describe his or her judgment process accurately.

Proceedings of the Advanced Seminar held at the Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, June 4-8, 1984

Enterprise Modeling has been defined as the art of externalizing enterprise knowledge, i.e., representing the core knowledge of the enterprise. Although useful in product design and systems development, for modeling and model-based approaches to have a more profound effect, a shift in modeling approaches and methodologies is necessary. Modeling should become as natural as drawing, sketching and scribbling, and should provide powerful services for capturing work-centric, work-supporting and generative knowledge, for preserving context and ensuring reuse. A solution is the application of Active Knowledge Modeling (AKM).

The AKM technology is about discovering, externalizing, expressing, representing, sharing, exploring, configuring, activating, growing and managing enterprise knowledge. An AKM solution is about exploiting the Web as a knowledge engineering medium, and developing knowledge-model-based families of platforms, model-configured workplaces and services.

This book was written by the inventors of AKM arising out of their cooperation with both scientists and industrial practitioners over a long period of time, and the authors give examples, directions, methods and services to enable new ways of working, exploiting the AKM approach to enable effective c-business, enterprise design and development, and lifecycle management. Industry managers and design engineers will become aware of the manifold possibilities of, and added values in, IT-supported distributed design processes, and researchers for collaborative design environments will find lots of stimulation and many examples for future developments.

Every business should introduce new technologies to improve their performance? The only way to innovate is to think outside of the box? And obviously, having a Chief Strategy Officer is a guarantee of success. Really? The reality is that there are no magic recipes for success. If there were, every company would use them, and no single company would be outstanding. Business strategy is messy, requires hard graft and is difficult to get right. And yet the world of strategy is dominated by management consultants and business gurus making sweeping generalizations, oversimplifying business thinking and peddling their own unfounded ideas. But do these methods actually work? Myths of Strategy debunks thirty of these most common strategy sagas, cutting through consultant hyperbole and provide you with tried and test business ideas that will make your company more successful. About the Business Myths series... The Business Myths series tackles the falsehoods that pervade the business world. From leadership and management to social media, strategy and the workplace, these accessible books overturn out-of-date assumptions, skewer stereotypes and put oft-repeated slogans to the test. Entertaining and rigorously researched, these books will equip you with the insight and no-nonsense wisdom you need to succeed.

Get to better, more effective strategy.

In nearly every business segment and corner of the world economy, the most successful companies dramatically outperform their rivals. What is their secret? In Better, Simpler Strategy, Harvard Business School professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee shows how these companies achieve more by doing less. At a time when rapid technological change and global competition conspire to upend traditional ways of doing business, these companies pursue radically simplified strategies. At a time when many managers struggle not to drown in vast seas of projects and initiatives, these businesses follow simple rules that help them select the few ideas that truly make a difference.

Better, Simpler Strategy provides readers with a simple tool, the value stick, which every organization can use to make its strategy more effective and easier to execute. Based on proven financial mechanics, the value stick helps executives decide where to focus their attention and how to deepen the competitive advantage of their business.

How does the value stick work? It provides a way of measuring the two fundamental forces that lead to value creation and increased financial success—the customer's willingness-to-pay and the employee's willingness-to-sell their services to the business. Companies that win, Oberholzer-Gee shows, create value for customers by raising their willingness-to-pay, and they provide value for talent by lowering their willingness-to-sell. The approach, proven in practice, is entirely data driven and uniquely suited to be cascaded throughout the organization.

With many useful visuals and examples across industries and geographies, Better, Simpler Strategy explains how these two key measures enable firms to gauge and improve their strategies and operations. Based on the author's sought-after strategy course, this book is your must-have guide for making better strategic decisions.

This book investigates in detail large-scale group decision-making (LSGDM) problem, which has gradually evolved from the traditional group decision-making problem and has attracted more and more attention in the age of big data. Pursuing a holistic approach, the book establishes a fundamental framework for LSGDM with uncertain and behavioral considerations. To address the behavioral uncertainty and complexity of large groups of decision-makers, this book mainly focuses on new solutions of LSGDM problems using the interval type-2 fuzzy uncertainty theory and social network analysis techniques, including the exploration of uncertain clustering analysis, the consideration of social relationships, especially trust relationships, the construction of consensus evolution networks, etc. The book is intended for researchers and postgraduates who are interested in complex group decision-making in the new media era. Authors also investigate the similar features between LSGDM problems and group recommendations to study the applications of LSGDM methods. After reading this book, readers will have a new understanding of the LSGDM study under the real complicated context. 

The decision-making process has become a challenge in modern organizations due to increased access to information and large data sets. When considering single-criteria problems, the decision making process is extremely intuitive. On the other hand, multi-criteria decision making, which involves several factors, requires further consideration and more sophisticated methods. Fuzzy Optimization and Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Digital Marketing applies fuzzy theory and multi-criteria decision making principles for better practice in the digital business environment. Presenting timely research and case studies on practical implementation of such theories in the digital marketplace, this publication is designed for use by business professionals, executives, graduate-level students, and researchers. This research-focused publication features discussions on several key concepts useful for modern business professionals including decision-making models and fuzzy theory applied to internet marketing, consumer behavior, and the optimization of strategic marketing plans.

Drastic changes of the societies in the new century require new paradigm in every area of social science. Organizations study is not exception. This book illustrates the cutting edge of organizations study beyond the traditional approaches in management science and general management theory. With an interdisciplinary approach emphasizing systemic properties of organizations such as interaction, hierarchy, network and emergence, it covers dynamic aspects of organizational learning and evolution as well as the decision making function and information processing process.

This volume highlights the main procedures for assessing the regional risks resulting from dangerous goods storage, and transportation by means of different systems (i.e., road, rail, ship, and pipeline). The information in the book is based on a wide range of references and studies. The main procedural steps involved in quantitative risk analysis for transportation systems are supported by relevant methods of risk assessment, as recognized at an international level. The book gives an overview of the criteria and guidelines applicable to the implementation of risk assessments and management at different stages. Chapter 1 describes the environmental and safety factors to consider when performing a transportation risk analysis for a region. Chapter 2 presents risk definitions and the methodology for analyzing transportation risks in a complex area. Chapter 3 presents general information about truck accidents and their consequences, and reviews the risk presented by road tunnels. Chapter 4 deals with transportation of hazardous materials by rail. Chapter 5 is concerned with the assessment of transportation risks on water ways. Chapter 6 furnishes a description of the transport pipelines for natural gas and petroleum products and describes the situation in Switzerland. Chapter 7 presents a compilation of statistical data related to accidents and the movement of dangerous goods. Chapter 8 is devoted to the description of data bases and computer support for risk assessment. Chapter 9 deals with integrated approaches for regional risk assessment and safety management with special emphasis to the transportation of hazardous materials. Chapter 10 presents several relevant case studies andmiscellaneous information.

Gorrod examines the many challenges for the next generation risk management system. Dramatic changes in market conditions, budgetary constraints, the evolving nature of risk within the financial organization, as well as the requirements of increasing regulation in the global market place have resulted in a totally different environment for risk systems. These applications must be functionally richer, have greater performance, provide seamless and improved integration, as well as being quick to deploy and cheaper to deliver and support. Recent advances in technology have provided a number of tools to help the risk technologist. This book summarizes these new trends and also arms the reader with the knowledge, tools and approaches required to survive in this new environment. Covering the requirements of the trader and risk manager, to how to decide whether and how to out-source or develop in-house, this book acts as the handbook for risk technologists to survive these challenges.

Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and, strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly, 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members."

This book addresses new concepts, methods, algorithms, modeling, and applications of green supply chain, inventory control problems, assignment problems, transportation problem, linear problems and new information related to optimization for the topic from the theoretical and applied viewpoints of neutrosophic sets and logic. The book is an innovatory of new tools and procedures, such as: Neutrosophic Statistical Tests and Dependent State Samplings, Neutrosophic Probabilistic Expert Systems, Neutrosophic HyperSoft Set, Quadripartitioned Neutrosophic Cross-Entropy, Octagonal and Spherical and Cubic Neutrosophic Numbers used in machine learning. It highlights the process of neutrosofication {which means to split the universe into three parts, two opposite ones (Truth and Falsehood), and an Indeterminate or neutral one (I) in between them}. It explains Three-Ways Decision, how the universe set is split into three different distinct areas, in regard to the decision process, representing: Acceptance, Noncommitment, and Rejection, respectively. The Three-Way Decision is used in the Neutrosophic Linguistic Rough Set, which has never been done before.

This book explores clustering operations in the context of social networks and consensus-reaching paths that take into account non-cooperative behaviors. This book focuses on the two key issues in large-scale group decision-making: clustering and consensus building. Clustering aims to reduce the dimension of a large group. Consensus reaching requires that the divergent individual opinions of the decision makers converge to the group opinion. This book emphasizes the similarity of opinions and social relationships as important measurement attributes of clustering, which makes it different from traditional clustering methods with single attribute to divide the original large group without requiring a combination of the above two attributes. The proposed consensus models focus on the treatment of non-cooperative behaviors in the consensus-reaching process and explores the influence of trust loss on the consensus-reaching process.The logic behind is as follows: firstly, a clustering algorithm is adopted to reduce the dimension of decision-makers, and then, based on the clusters' opinions obtained, a consensus-reaching process is carried out to obtain a decision result acceptable to the majority of decision-makers. Graduates and researchers in the fields of management science, computer science, information management, engineering technology, etc., who are interested in large-scale group decision-making and consensus building are potential audience of this book. It helps readers to have a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of clustering analysis and consensus building in large-scale group decision-making.

Information Technology (IT) - the field that links computer and communications equipment and software - is transforming the way modern business is done. Examples of factors leading these changes are: rapidly decreasing costs of computer hardware, government de-regulation, accelerating global competitiveness, an increasing management awareness, and the knowledge of how to employ Information Technology successfully. These have all led to the increase of IT's effects on existing markets, and, in the process, are creating entirely new markets. This book explores a variety of advances in IT by a group of researchers who are at the cutting edge of this research. Moreover, the book examines these innovative developments in terms of the Information Technology field and its effect on modern business. It is becoming increasingly apparent that IT is critical to success in today's competitive marketplace. As a result, this book examines a host of emerging effects at work in these developments and seeks to make sense out of these counter-acting, sometimes multiplicative, effects which can become obstacles for managers who wish to develop competitive applications of IT. These effects and the development of IT are grouped into four general categories in the book: Future Markets, Inter-Organizational Systems, Focused Applications, and Future Strategies.

Franz Ferschl is seventy. According to his birth certificate it is true, but it is unbelievable. Two of the three editors remembers very well the Golden Age of Operations Research at Bonn when Franz Ferschl worked together with Wilhelm Krelle, Martin Beckmann and Horst Albach. The importance of this fruitful cooperation is reflected by the fact that half of the contributors to this book were strongly influenced by Franz Ferschl and his colleagues at the University of Bonn. Clearly, Franz Ferschl left his traces at all the other places of his professional activities, in Vienna and Munich. This is demonstrated by the present volume as well. Born in 1929 in the Upper-Austrian Miihlviertel, his scientific education brought him to Vienna where he studied mathematics. In his early years he was attracted by Statistics and Operations Research. During his employment at the Osterreichische Bundeskammer fUr Gewerbliche Wirtschaft in Vienna he prepared his famous book on queueing theory and stochastic processes in economics. This work has been achieved during his scarce time left by his duties at the Bundeskammer, mostly between 6 a.m. and midnight. All those troubles were, however, soon rewarded by the chair of statistics at Bonn University. As a real Austrian, the amenities of the Rhineland could not prevent him from returning to Vienna, where he took the chair of statistics.

This graduate-level textbook covers modelling, programming and analysis of stochastic computer simulation experiments, including the mathematical and statistical foundations of simulation and why it works. The book is rigorous and complete, but concise and accessible, providing all necessary background material. Object-oriented programming of simulations is illustrated in Python, while the majority of the book is programming language independent. In addition to covering the foundations of simulation and simulation programming for applications, the text prepares readers to use simulation in their research. A solutions manual for end-of-chapter exercises is available for instructors.

The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing and strategic decision making. It is the hope and direction of this research annual to become an applications and practitioner oriented publication. Topics will include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgementally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

Today's business world is under constant digital threats that can cause unpredictable damage and weaken the competitiveness of businesses. With digital transformation risks and cyber-attacks increased by extraordinary situations such as the recent pandemic, new approaches are needed in the management of these emerging digital conflicts to develop sustainable business strategies and become a robust business of the future. Conflict Management in Digital Business: New Strategy and Approach is a pioneering and innovative guide in the context of digital conflicts in the value chain of businesses and on digital conflicts in business management and strategy. Conflict management is discussed in the context of issues of production and planning, logistics, marketing, procurement, technology development, human resource management, and business infrastructure. Sectoral issues with conflicting businesses, organizational behavior, digital sustainability, cyber business management, cyber-attack, and cyberwarfare strategies for businesses are discussed in detail to bring crucial principles in the context of management and strategy to all businesses that desire to be a business of the future. Providing readers with a unique guide of how businesses can achieve resilience to digital conflict, Conflict Management in Digital Business helps prepare for unexpected situations such as pandemics, to maintain competitive advantage, and illuminating pathways to turn conflicts caused by extraordinary situations into opportunities.

Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective."

Public experience with risk communication differs greatly from country to country in Europe and there has been little opportunity for the transfer of experience and learning between countries. This is especially true for the many new European States, including the countries in transition from centralised to market economies. This book presents case studies on risk communication. One of its unifying concepts is the role of risk communication in the risk management process. Technical and philosophical introductions to risk communication and risk management and research in risk communication are given. The case studies themselves occupy the central portion of the book, each one covering a particular hazard, risk or situation seen from a particular point of view. The issue of the special circumstances for environmental and health risk communication in central and eastern Europe is also addressed through a separate presentation and discussion of an appropriate case study. A different approach to risk communication is taken by examining how it forms part of the risk management process at the local level. Research into risk perception, a field that forms an important foundation for many aspects of risk communication, is summarised and practical guidelines for risk communication are reviewed. These include discussions on how to carry out public information programmes and methods for increasing public involvement in risk management decisions.

Dr. Williams contends that over the last 20 years a change has occurred in organizations that has created a syndrome of dysfunctions that are neither good for businesses nor for the people who work in them. Williams sees businesses as living entities, and argues that how they act and react will have an impact on their employees, and often a devastating impact. In much the same way as businesses make decisions, people make choices, and seldom are these decisions and choices congruent. Unless disparate self-interests and goals can be reconciled--unless a partnership can be restored between people and their organizations--not only will employees be damaged, but the success of their organization, upon which they depend for their livelihoods, will be jeopardized. How this dangerous situation came about, what it means, and how it can be remedied is the subjet of Dr. Williams' book. Research-based and always in touch with the realities of commerce, Dr. Williams will make business people aware that organizations and their people must become reunited, and then show them how it can be done.

Dr. Williams makes clear he is not simply speculating or theorizing. His goal is to make management aware of the dysfunctions that are damaging their organizations, and how these are reflected in the behaviors of their employees. When he calls for a focus on humanity, spirit, and context, Dr. Williams is actually offering a workable, real-world strategy to breathe new life into organizations of all kinds--a strategy he calls The Trinity Process. Its purpose: to help management restore the essential partnership between organizational entities and the people who make them succeed or fail. In Part One he shows what it means to be part of any organization and, with anecdotes and cases from his own research, helps readers grasp the dynamics of their own organizations. In Part Two he proposes new or reframed paradigms that provide an underpinning for the reestablishment of equality between organizations and their employees. Then, in Part Three he presents The Trinity Process itself. The result is a remarkably lucid, readable, engrossing exploration of organizational life today, important reading for decision makers in all types of organizations, public as well as private, and for academics concerned with how organizations behave.

This encyclopedic, detailed exposition spans all the steps of one-period allocation from the foundations to the most advanced developments.

Multivariate estimation methods are analyzed in depth, including non-parametric, maximum-likelihood under non-normal hypotheses, shrinkage, robust, and very general Bayesian techniques. Evaluation methods such as stochastic dominance, expected utility, value at risk and coherent measures are thoroughly discussed in a unified setting and applied in a variety of contexts, including prospect theory, total return and benchmark allocation.

Portfolio optimization is presented with emphasis on estimation risk, which is tackled by means of Bayesian, resampling and robust optimization techniques.

All the statistical and mathematical tools, such as copulas, location-dispersion ellipsoids, matrix-variate distributions, cone programming, are introduced from the basics. Comprehension is supported by a large number of figures and examples, as well as real trading and asset management case studies.

At symmys.com the reader will find freely downloadable complementary materials: the Exercise Book; a set of thoroughly documented MATLAB(r) applications; and the Technical Appendices with all the proofs. More materials and complete reviews can also be found at symmys.com.

Residential Exposure Assessment: A Source Book is the result of a multiyear effort known as the Residential Exposure Assessment Project (REAP) which was initiated by the Society for Risk Analysis and the International Society of Exposure Analysis. This textbook is the primary product of the REAP and it contains contributions from over 30 professionals from a variety of disciplines such as chemistry, biology, physics, engi neering, industrial hygiene, toxicology, pharmacology, and environmental law, reflecting the diverse knowledge and resources necessary to assess and manage potential exposures occurring in and around the home. Expert working groups were organized for each of the 13 chapters to address such issues as U. S. legislation relevant to products used in and around the residence, methods for measuring and modeling exposures across multiple pathways and routes, and distributional data available for key residential exposure factors. This volume is a compendium of information about predictive methods and tools, monitoring methods, data sources, and key variables that characterize exposures in the residential setting. It presents approaches for doing exposure assessments in and around all types of residences. The purpose of the Source Book is to provide a resource for use in educational programs and for "practitioners" of residential exposure assessment. Accordingly, this book is intended for risk assessors, exposure assessors, students, initi ates new to the concept of risk assessment, industrial hygienists assessing health hazards in the home, engineers, and monitoring specialists."