We make decisions, and these decisions make us and our organisations. And in theory, decision-making should be easy: a problem is identified, the decision-makers generate solutions, and choose the optimal one - and powerful mathematical tools are available to facilitate the task. Yet if it is all so simple why do organisations, both private and public sector, keep making mistakes - the results of which are borne by shareholders, employees, taxpayers and ultimately society at large? This guide to decision making. by leading decision science academic Helga Drummond, aims to improve decision-making in organisations. It explores how and why decisions go awry in the first place - and offers practical advice on what decision-makers can do to counter the psychological, social and other forces that can undermine individual judgment and pull organisations off course. Full of examples of good and bad decision-making from around the world, it will make readers think more clearly about decisions big and small.

Train your brain for better decisions, problem solving, and innovation Think Smarter: Critical Thinking to Improve Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills is the comprehensive guide to training your brain to do more for you. Written by a critical thinking trainer and coach, the book presents a pragmatic set of tools to apply critical thinking techniques to everyday business issues. Think Smarter is filled with real world examples that demonstrate how the tools work in action, in addition to dozens of practice exercises applicable across industries and functions, Think Smarter is a versatile resource for individuals, managers, students, and corporate training programs. Thinking is the foundation of everything you do, but we rely largely on automatic thinking to process information, often resulting in misunderstandings and errors. Shifting over to critical thinking means thinking purposefully using a framework and toolset, enabling thought processes that lead to better decisions, faster problem solving, and creative innovation. Think Smarter provides clear, actionable steps toward improving your critical thinking skills, plus exercises that clarify complex concepts by putting theory into practice. Features include: * A comprehensive critical thinking framework * Over twenty-five "tools" to help you think more critically * Critical thinking implementation for functions and activities * Examples of the real-world use of each tool Learn what questions to ask, how to uncover the real problem to solve, and mistakes to avoid. Recognize assumptions your can rely on versus those without merit, and train your brain to tick through your mental toolbox to arrive at more innovative solutions. Critical thinking is the top skill on the wish list in the business world, and sharpening your ability can have profound affects throughout all facets of life. Think Smarter: Critical Thinking to Improve Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills provides a roadmap to more effective and productive thought.

The essence of any root cause analysis in our modern quality thinking is to go beyond the actual problem. This means not only do we have to fix the problem at hand but we also have to identify why the failure occurred and what was the opportunity to apply the appropriate knowledge to avoid the problem in the future. Essential Statistical Concepts for the Quality Professional offers a new non-technical statistical approach to quality for effective improvement and productivity by focusing on very specific and fundamental methodologies and tools for the future. Written by an expert with more than 30 years of experience in management, quality training, and consulting, the book examines the fundamentals of statistical understanding, and by doing so demonstrates the importance of using statistics in the decision making process. The author points out pitfalls to keep in mind when undertaking an experiment for improvement and explains how to use statistics in improvement endeavors. He discusses data interpretation, common tests and confidence intervals, and how to plan experiments for improvement. The book expands the notion of experimentation by dealing with mathematical models such as regression to optimize the improvement and understand the relationship between several factors. It emphasizes the need for sampling and introduces specific techniques to make sure accuracy and precision of the data is appropriate and applicable for the study at hand. The author's approach is somewhat new and unique; however, he details tools and methodologies that can be used to evaluate the system for prevention. These tools and methodologies focus on structured, repeatable processes that can be instrumental in finding real, fixable causes of the human errors and equipment failures that lead to quality issues.

A tried and tested formula for business planning What is the one thing you need to know in business? What s the single most important aspect of business to master in order to succeed and grow? It has to be planning. Whether you re sitting down to plan a whole brand strategy or tasked with planning a single product and taking it to market, nailing the planning and decision making will ensure you have full buy-in from all stakeholders, a high level of market knowledge, know exactly what value your product or service brings and a thorough understanding of how the financials will work. In short, you ll have an idea that succeeds. Ross Lovelock and his company SCQuARE have spent the last 20 years developing a formula for such planning. Ross has shared this formula with some of the world s leading companies now he s going to share it with you. The One Thing You Need to Know is a complete business planning toolkit. * A simple, implementable explanation of how to bring a product plan or a brand strategy together * Will teach you the critical business skill of creating and selling plans * Learn how to think through a complex business problem, create the right solution and then sell it through the corporate maze * Explains exactly how to distil vast amounts of information into a compelling business story that will warrant a YES decision from the boss

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these technique and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of risk analysis, as well as new chapters for this risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

Key Features: Breaks down techniques into types of modelling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation and time series forecasting) and then applies them with easy-to-follow examples. Explains powerful and proven Monte Carlo simulation and numerical techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Includes recent innovations inmodelling like fast Fourier transforms and copulas. Over 150 examples models and over 400 illustrations. Written in an informal manner with a practical rather than academic focus. Discusses the planning, uses and abuses of risk analysis. Includes a compendium of almost eighty distribution types and their uses.

" Whether by design, accident or merely synchronicity, Checkland appears to have developed a habit of writing seminal publications near the start of each decade which establish the basis and framework for systems methodology research for that decade." Hamish Rennie, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1992 Thirty years ago Peter Checkland set out to test whether the Systems Engineering (SE) approach, highly successful in technical problems, could be used by managers coping with the unfolding complexities of organizational life. The straightforward transfer of SE to the broader situations of management was not possible, but by insisting on a combination of systems thinking strongly linked to real-world practice Checkland and his collaborators developed an alternative approach - Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) - which enables managers of all kinds and at any level to deal with the subtleties and confusions of the situations they face. This work established the now accepted distinction between ‘ hard’ systems thinking, in which parts of the world are taken to be ‘ systems’ which can be ‘ engineered’ , and ‘ soft’ systems thinking in which the focus is on making sure the process of inquiry into real-world complexity is itself a system for learning. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981) and Soft Systems Methodology in Action (1990) together with an earlier paper Towards a Systems-based Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving (1972) have long been recognized as classics in the field. Now-Peter Checkland has looked back over the three decades of SSM development, brought the account of it up to date, and reflected on the whole evolutionary process which has produced a mature SSM. SSM: A 30-Year Retrospective, here included with Soft Systems Methodology in Action closes a chapter on what is undoubtedly the most significant single research programme on the use of systems ideas in problem solving. Now retired from full-time university work, Peter Checkland continues his research as a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellow.

"The best education in grand strategy available in a single volume . . . a book that should be read by every American leader or would-be leader."-The Wall Street Journal A master class in strategic thinking, distilled from the legendary program the author has co-taught at Yale for decades John Lewis Gaddis, the distinguished historian of the Cold War, has for almost two decades co-taught grand strategy at Yale University with his colleagues Charles Hill and Paul Kennedy. Now, in On Grand Strategy, Gaddis reflects on what he has learned. In chapters extending from the ancient world through World War II, Gaddis assesses grand strategic theory and practice in Herodotus, Thucydides, Sun Tzu, Octavian/Augustus, St. Augustine, Machiavelli, Elizabeth I, Philip II, the American Founding Fathers, Clausewitz, Tolstoy, Lincoln, Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Isaiah Berlin. On Grand Strategy applies the sharp insights and wit readers have come to expect from Gaddis to times, places, and people he's never written about before. For anyone interested in the art of leadership, On Grand Strategy is, in every way, a master class.

"Rational Decision Making for Managers" provides students with a basic understanding of quantitative and analytical techniques that managers use to make complex business decisions and helps them to recognise when they are appropriate. Sarah Keast and Mike Towler also show the characteristics of the decisions that can be informed by the use of each technique, thereby guiding the reader in their choice.

"Rational Decision Making for Managers" features: separate chapters on robustness analysis and game theorya strong contextual discussion and clear structurea concise mathematical appendix

The book is essential reading for students studying business decision making, quantitative methods and business research methods.

You're intelligent, right? So you've already figured out that Business Intelligence can be pretty valuable in making the right decisions about your business. But you've heard at least a dozen definitions of what it is, and heard of at least that many BI tools. Where do you start?

"Business Intelligence For Dummies" makes BI understandable It takes you step by step through the technologies and the alphabet soup, so you can choose the right technology and implement a successful BI environment. You'll see how the applications and technologies work together to access, analyze, and present data that you can use to make better decisions about your products, customers, competitors, and more.

You'll find out how to: Understand the principles and practical elements of BIDetermine what your business needsCompare different approaches to BIBuild a solid BI architecture and roadmapDesign, develop, and deploy your BI planRelate BI to data warehousing, ERP, CRM, and e-commerceAnalyze emerging trends and developing BI tools to see what else may be useful

Whether you're the business owner or the person charged with developing and implementing a BI strategy, checking out "Business Intelligence For Dummies" is a good business decision.

Every business should introduce new technologies to improve their performance? The only way to innovate is to think outside of the box? And obviously, having a Chief Strategy Officer is a guarantee of success. Really? The reality is that there are no magic recipes for success. If there were, every company would use them, and no single company would be outstanding. Business strategy is messy, requires hard graft and is difficult to get right. And yet the world of strategy is dominated by management consultants and business gurus making sweeping generalizations, oversimplifying business thinking and peddling their own unfounded ideas. But do these methods actually work? Myths of Strategy debunks thirty of these most common strategy sagas, cutting through consultant hyperbole and provide you with tried and test business ideas that will make your company more successful. About the Business Myths series... The Business Myths series tackles the falsehoods that pervade the business world. From leadership and management to social media, strategy and the workplace, these accessible books overturn out-of-date assumptions, skewer stereotypes and put oft-repeated slogans to the test. Entertaining and rigorously researched, these books will equip you with the insight and no-nonsense wisdom you need to succeed.

"Operational Risk Management" offers peace of mind to business and government leaders who want their organizations to be ready for any contingency, no matter how extreme. This invaluable book is a preparatory resource for when times are good, and an emergency reference when times are bad. "Operational Risk Management" is destined to become every risk manager's ultimate weapon to help his or her organization survive ? no matter what.

MONEY & LOVE: An Intelligent Roadmap for Life's Biggest Decisions is a guide for navigating life's most consequential and daunting decisions using research-based insights road-tested in a popular Stanford University course. Should I move in with this person? Should I quit my job? When is the "right time" to have another child? All these life-altering questions at the juncture of money and love can be overwhelming. Often, we answer them either by staying overly rational or by only listening to our - at times fickle - hearts. Hardly ever, when faced with daunting questions, do we have the keys to combine both head and heart in a balanced and fulfilling way. Labor economist and Stanford Professor Emerita Myra Strober and social innovation leader Abby Davisson know that in our daily lives money and love are interdependent. Whereas most decision-making guides focus only on one or the other, Money and Love shows us and our loved ones how to consider them jointly using the original, step-by-step 5Cs method: Clarify Communicate Choices Check-in Consequences At a time when we are experiencing the most significant shift in work-life balance in decades - marked by remote work, the Great Reshuffle, and a mass reconfiguring of family dynamics and social/professional networks - Strober and Davisson's framework offers simple and effective steps to empower readers to make the best strategic decisions without having to sacrifice their careers or personal lives.

This title was first published in 2000: The International Library of Management is a comprehensive core reference series comprised of the most significant and influential articles by the leading authorities in the management studies field. Volumes in the series include a full-length introduction from the editor, an internationally recognized expert, which provides an authoritative guide to the selection of essays chosen and to the wider field itself. The collections of essays is both international and interdisciplinary in scope and provides an entry point for investigating the myriad of study within the discipline.

Large western companies are accelerating their expansion into emerging economies, while relying on oversimplified frameworks to make decisions and complex matrix organizations to make things happen. When critical events do happen (such as terrorist attacks or civil wars), senior executives and the companies they lead are often taken by surprise. As the world shifts to a less stable geopolitical structure, only firms that can acquire a better capability to foresee and prepare for change will prevail over the long term. Strategy and Geopolitics provides a strategic framework that can help senior business executives address the challenges of globalization in this evolving geopolitical landscape. This book underlines the need to go beyond a simplistic understanding of different countries and territories: it discusses the geopolitical issues that can be the cause of success or failure in different markets; and it explores strategies for dealing with global and local complexity, as well as introducing innovative ideas on recruitment and organization.

In recent years, there has been a growing debate, particularly in the UK and Europe, over the merits of using discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD); there are now instances where both methodologies were employed on the same problem. This book details each method, comparing each in terms of both theory and their application to various problem situations. It also provides a seamless treatment of various topics--theory, philosophy, detailed mechanics, practical implementation--providing a systematic treatment of the methodologies of DES and SD, which previously have been treated separately.

The best leaders are born, not made. The best leaders are always in control. The best leaders are those with the highest IQs. But are they really? The thinking about what makes the greatest leaders is increasingly muddled by stereotypes, false promises and pseudo-science. The best leaders rely on fact, not fads. Myths of Leadership blasts away the fluff and confronts false legends head on. Jo Owen uses the most credible research to analyze each myth, using international business case studies, leadership theory and insightful interviews, to uncover the truth. This is a compelling examination of the most pervasive misconceptions about leadership that will help you elevate your own leadership abilities, better inspire your team and empower your organization by thinking differently. Entertaining and accessible Myths of Leadership throws out the management jargon and skewers over-hyped leadership trends to bring you the best practical tips you need to become a better leader. About the Business Myths series... The Business Myths series tackles the falsehoods that pervade the business world. From leadership and management to social media, strategy and the workplace, these accessible books overturn out-of-date assumptions, skewer stereotypes and put oft-repeated slogans to the test. Entertaining and rigorously researched, these books will equip you with the insight and no-nonsense wisdom you need to succeed.

Combinatorial optimization is a multidisciplinary scientific area, lying in the interface of three major scientific domains: mathematics, theoretical computer science and management. The three volumes of the Combinatorial Optimization series aim to cover a wide range of topics in this area. These topics also deal with fundamental notions and approaches as with several classical applications of combinatorial optimization. Concepts of Combinatorial Optimization, is divided into three parts: - On the complexity of combinatorial optimization problems, presenting basics about worst-case and randomized complexity; - Classical solution methods, presenting the two most-known methods for solving hard combinatorial optimization problems, that are Branch-and-Bound and Dynamic Programming; - Elements from mathematical programming, presenting fundamentals from mathematical programming based methods that are in the heart of Operations Research since the origins of this field.

Pertinent to modern industry, administration, finance and society, the most pressing issue for firms today is how to reapproach the way we think and work in business. With topics ranging from improving productivity and coaxing economic growth after periods of market inactivity, Complex Decision-Making in Economy and Finance offers pragmatic solutions for dealing with the critical levels of disorder and chaos that have developed throughout the modern age. This book examines how to design complex products and systems, the benefits of collective intelligence and self-organization, and the best methods for handling risks in problematic environments. It also analyzes crises and how to manage them. This book is of benefit to companies and public bodies with regards to saving assets, reviving fortunes and laying the groundwork for robust, sustainable societal dividends. Examples, case studies, practical hints and guidelines illustrate the topics, particularly in finance.

At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century's interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Forged at the heart of international political bodies by expert researchers, the innovation cluster concept has been incorporated into most public policies in industrialized countries. Based largely on the ideas behind the success of Silicon Valley, several imitative attempts have been made to geographically group laboratories, companies and training in particular fields in order to generate "synergies" between science and industry. In its first part, Innovation in Clusters analyzes the infatuation with the system of clusters that is integral to innovative policies by analyzing its socio historical context, its revival in management and its worldwide expansion, looking at a French example at a local level. In its second part, the book explores a specialized biotechnology cluster dating back to the end of the 1990s. The sociological survey conducted twenty years later sheds a different light on the dynamics and relationships between laboratories and companies, contradicting the commonly held belief that innovation is made possible by geographical proximity.

This book offers a simple introduction to the fundamentals and applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) without a pre-requisite for a sophisticated mathematical background. It provides a quick and intuitive understanding of the methodology using spreadsheet examples and explains in a step-by-step fashion how to use Super Decisions, a freely available software developed by the Creative Decisions Foundations. The book is intended to be a resource for decision makers with little or no exposure to the field of Operations Research (OR); however, the book can be used as a very gentle introduction to the AHP methodology and/or as an AHP hands-on supplement for standard OR textbooks. AHP is an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the field of multi-criteria decision making. Because of this, most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background. However, AHP simplicity suggests that decision makers from all disciplines can take advantage of the methodology without struggling with the mathematics behind it. To fulfill this need, this book delivers a quick and practical understanding of the method that can be useful for corporate executives.

Evidence-Based Decision-Making: How to Leverage Available Data and Avoid Cognitive Biases examines how a wide range of factual evidence, primarily derived from a variety of data available to organizations, can be used to improve the quality of business decision-making, by helping decision makers circumvent the various cognitive biases that adversely impact how we all think. The book is built on the following premise: During the past decade, the new 'data world' emerged, in which the rush to develop competencies around business analytics and data science can be characterized as nothing less than the new commercial arms race. The ever-expanding volume and variety of data are well known, as are the great advances in data processing/analytics, data visualization, and related information production-focused capabilities. Yet, comparatively little effort has been devoted to how the informational products of business analytics and data science are 'consumed' or used in the organizational decision-making processes, as the available evidence shows that only some of that information is used to drive some business decisions some of the time. Evidence-Based Decision-Making details an explicit process describing how the universe of available and applicable evidence, which includes organizational and other data, industry benchmarks, scientific studies, and professional experience, can be assessed, amalgamated, and funneled into an objective driver of key business decisions. Introducing key concepts in relation to data and evidence, and the history of evidence-based management, this new and extremely topical book will be essential reading for researchers and students of data analytics as well as those working in the private and public sectors, and in the voluntary sector.

Chris O'Leary looks afresh at the reasons for prosocial work choices in the first substantive critique of Public Service Motivation (PSM). With critical analysis of theoretical and empirical research to date, this book explores the pros and cons of PSM and interrogates the reasons why people choose to work in the public and third sectors. It proposes an alternative theory for the pursuit of service, rooted in rational choice theory, that shows public servants are expressly motivated to confirm their values and identity through their work. For those involved in public policy, administration and management, this is a constructive and stimulating review of an important but often neglected aspect of the sector.

Businesses need a new type of problem solving. Why? Because they are getting people wrong.
Traditional problem-solving methods taught in business schools serve us well for some of the everyday challenges of business, but they tend to be ineffective with problems involving a high degree of uncertainty. Why? Because, more often than not, these tools are based on a flawed model of human behavior. And that flawed model is the invisible scaffolding that supports our surveys, our focus groups, our R&D, and much of our long-term strategic planning.
In The Moment of Clarity, Christian Madsbjerg and Mikkel Rasmussen examine the business world's assumptions about human behavior and show how these assumptions can lead businesses off track. But the authors chart a way forward. Using theories and tools from the human sciences--anthropology, sociology, philosophy, and psychology--The Moment of Clarity introduces a practical framework called sensemaking. Sensemaking's nonlinear problem-solving approach gives executives a better way to understand business challenges involving shifts in human behavior.
This new methodology, a fundamentally different way to think about strategy, is already taking off in Fortune 100 companies around the world. Through compelling case studies and their direct experience with LEGO, Samsung, Adidas, Coloplast, and Intel, Madsbjerg and Rasmussen will show you how to solve problems as diverse as setting company direction, driving growth, improving sales models, understanding the real culture of your organization, and finding your way in new markets.
Over and over again, executives say the same thing after engaging in a process of sensemaking: Now I see it . . . This experience--the moment of clarity--has the potential to drive the entire strategic future of your company. Isn't it time you and your firm started getting people right?
Learn more about the innovation and strategy work of ReD Associates at: redassociates.com