Advanced communications and information technologies provide the basis for operational risk management. In order to support managers in real-time risk assessment and decision-making, the advanced technologies must be complemented by an appropriate reasoning logic. This book presents such a reasoning logic for operational risk management. Chapter 1 discusses the need for operational risk management and the feasibility of its use based upon advances in sensing, mobile communications, and satellite positioning technologies. Chapter II presents a reasoning logic for operational risk management that capitalizes upon these developments. Chapter III illustrates the integration of the reasoning logic in hypermedia, multimedia, and virtual reality systems, coupled with the capabilities provided by the Internet. Chapters IV-VI illustrate the realism of operational risk management for hazardous material transportation, emergency response, air raid command, and emergency response at a nuclear power generation facility. The book closes with an experimental assessment of the logic and associated decision aids in Chapter VII. Audience: Researchers, who will find the most recent advances in operational risk management with experimental assessments. Practitioners, who are provided with a detailed description of operational risk management and the latest advances in information and communications technologies to implement this new approach for managing risks in operational settings, such as transportation of hazardous materials and emergency response. Students, who will learn the basic concepts in theory and practice of building models for decision and risk analysis, and embedding them into commercial software as decision support systems.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS PART 1 FISH CONSUMPTION AND METHYLMERCURY EXPOSURE IN THE AMAZON A. C. BARBOSA, A. M. GARCIA, J. R. DESOUZAI Mercurycontamination inhairofriverine 1-8 populations of Apiacas Reserve in the Brazilian Amazon E. D. BIDONE, Z. C. CASTILHOS, T. J. S. SANTOS, T. M. C. SOUZA and L. D. LACERDA I Fish contamination and human exposure to mercury in Tartarugalzinho River, Amapa State, Northern Amazon, Brazil. A screening approach 9-15 H. A. KEHRIG, O. MALM and H. AKAGI I Methylmercury in hair samples from different riverine groups, Amazon, Brazil 17-29 J. LEBEL, M. ROULET, D. MERGLER, M. LUCOTTE and F. LARRIBE I Fish diet and 31-44 mercury exposure in a riparian Amazonian population O. MALM. , J. R. D. GUIMARAES, M. B. CASTRO, W. R. BASTOS, J. P. VIANA, F. J. P. BRANCHES, E. G. SILVEIRA and W. C. PFEIFFER I Follow-up of mercury levels in fish, human hairand urine in the Madeira and Tapaj6s basins, Amazon, Brazil 45-51 PART 2 CHILD DEVELOPMENT AND LONG TERM EXPOSURE G. J. MYERS, P. W. DAVIDSON, C. COX, C. F. SHAMLAYE, O. CHOISY, E. CERNICHIARI, A. CHOI, J. SLOANE-REEVES, C. AXTELL, P. GAO and T. W. CLARKSON I The Seychelles child development study: Results and new directions through twenty-nine months 53-61 B. WHEATLEY, S. PARADIS, M. LASSONDE, M. -F. GIGUERE and S.

Perspectives in Life Cycle Impact Assessment: A Structured Approach to Combine Models of the Technosphere, Ecosphere and Valuesphere describes the relationship between subjective and objective elements in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. It suggests a new framework which will allow people to master two of the major problems associated with LCA, the difficulty of separating subjective from objective elements and the tendency for impact assessment to record phantoms' rather than actual damages. Perspectives in Life Cycle Impact Assessment: A Structured Approach to Combine Models of the Technosphere, Ecosphere and Valuesphere presents a proposal for a second generation framework and method for Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Many of the suggested elements are either based on other tools for environmental analysis, e.g. risk assessment, or fit in well with tools and concepts such as industrial ecology, technology assessment, or environmental impact assessment. The research presented in this book goes beyond the scope of presently used methods for Life Cycle Assessment and may stimulate new developments in a variety of areas. The book will appeal to persons from a wide range of scientific disciplines who are interested in learning more about Life Cycle Assessment. It will be especially valuable to members of SETAC and to students and researchers in the fields of environmental impact assessment, risk assessment and industrial ecology.

A central problem of prescriptive decision making is the mismatch between the elegant formal models of decision theory and the less elegant, informal thinking of decision makers, especially when dealing with ill-structured situations. This problem has been a central concern of the authors and their colleagues over the past two decades. They have wisely (to my mind) realized that any viable solution must be informed by a deep understanding of both the structural properties of alternative formalisms and the cognitive demands that they impose on decision makers. Considering the two in parallel reduces the risk of forcing decision makers to say things and endorse models that they do not really understand. It opens the door for creative solutions, incorporating insights from both decision theory and cognitive psychology. It is this opportunity that the authors have so ably exploited in this important book. Under the pressures of an interview situation, people will often answer a question that is put to them. Thus, they may be willing to provide a decision consultant with probability and utility assessments for all manner of things. However, if they do not fully understand the implications of what they are saying and the use to which it will be put, then they cannot maintain cognitive mastery of the decision models intended to represent their beliefs and interests.

The professional services market is under continuous pressure to change. Some firms have responded well, many have tried and failed. Professionals are trained to analyze and debate, rather than decide and act. Implementation and speed of response within professional firms remains a key problem. While there are many management books focusing on strategic change, few tackle change in the context of professionals. This book provides practical tools and techniques to harness the intellect and energy of professionals and achieve buy-in and commitment to change in their firms.

Crisis events are increasingly common. Their impacts are greater--and they are more widely reported in the media--than ever before. They often symbolize tragedy and loss, but they are also the precipitating factors in radical, rapid, and frequently positive social change. Understanding the complex dynamics of these powerful events is imperative for both researchers and managers. Taking a broad view of organizational crisis, the authors synthesize a rich and diverse body of theory, research, and practice and apply it to every kind of crisis imaginable, from oil spills to nuclear disasters, airplane crashes, shuttle explosions, and corporate implosions such as Enron. The "organization" can be anything from a company to a federal bureaucracy or society. Organizational crisis is presented as a natural stage in organizational evolution, creating not only stress and threats but also opportunities for growth and development. Communication is viewed as the pivotal process in the creation and maintenance of organization, and its role is examined here at every stage, from incubation to avoidance, crisis management, and recovery. Researchers, crisis managers, and communications managers will find a wealth of applied theoretical orientations, including chaos theory, sensemaking, organizational learning theory, and more.

Experts from academia and government who are actively engaged in research in the area of risk communication present a compendium of cases that give information and allow the development of strategies to improve the communication of scientific information to the public. The cases span Western, Central and Eastern Europe, covering such areas as nuclear waste, heavy metal contamination, landfill siting, risk perception, global warming, international health for all, and more. The conclusions and recommendations presented here are being used to develop future activities to further explore this area of risk communication as an international study. Audience: Scientists, risk communicators, psychologists, toxicologists, health professionals, and anyone who has an interest in public communication on scientific uncertainty.

In this book leading scholars debate current issues and shed light on future prospects in the field of Knowledge Management. It presents new perspectives on knowledge and learning, including modes of knowing in practice, transactive knowledge systems, organizational narrations, and challenges conventional wisdom. It deals with emerging issues in knowledge and innovation embracing models of distributed innovation and forms of co-operation. It also includes problems in managing knowledge, leadership issues and how to measure knowledge.

While executives are keen to harness organizational knowledge and improve business performance, the topic of how academics can produce rigorous and relevant theory in working relationships with practitioners is a much contested topic. Many aspects of this knowledge co-creation can create tensions, and the ways in which research is conducted and published can affect practitioner acceptance, as well as its consequent uptake and use in different contexts. Expertly compiled by Jean Bartunek and Jane McKenzie, with contributions from global thinkers in the field, this book offers a concise and up-to-date review of the essential analysis and action underlying scholarly engagement with the world of business. It discusses the sorts of capabilities academics need to collaborate effectively with practitioners and illustrates good practice through international case studies drawn from acknowledged centres of excellence. These show how to negotiate different constituencies with different priorities, values, and practices to work together to produce research of rigor and relevance. It will be a key reference and resource for all researchers who are engaged with practitioners, and an invaluable tool for training academics to develop research with impact.

Industrial development is essential to improvement of the standard of living in all countries. People's health and the environment can be affected, directly or indirectly by routine waste discharges or by accidents. A series of recent major industrial accidents and the effect of pollution highlighted, once again, the need for better management of routine and accidental risks. Moreover, the existence of natural hazards complicate even more the situation in any given region. In the past effort to cope with these risks, if made at all, have been largely on a plant by plant basis; some plants are well equipped to manage environmental and health hazards, while others are not. Managing the hazards of modern technological systems has become a key activity in highly industrialised countries. Decision makers are often confronted with complex issues concerning economic and social development, industrialisation and associated infrastructure needs, population and land use planning. Such issues have to be addressed in such a way that ensures that public health will not be disrupted or substantially degraded. Due to the increasing complexity of technological systems and the higher geographical density of punctual hazard sources, new methodologies and a novel approach to these problems are challenging risk managers and regional planers. Risks from these new complex technological systems are inherently different form those addressed by the risk managers for decades ago.

Security risk assessment and related control mechanisms are management tools that will fail in their purpose if they are too complex, too bureaucratic or insufficiently focused. Security Risk Assessment and Control presents a comprehensive risk model together with worked examples, helpful tips and blank proformas and forms. Written in a clear, easily digestible style, it also comprises a useful aide-memoire relevant to more experienced security professionals.

Progress in collaborative networks continues showing a growing number of manifestations and has led to the acceptance of Collaborative Networks (CN) as a new scientific discipline. Contributions to CN coming from multiple reference disciplines has been extensively investigated. In fact developments in CN have benefited from contributions of multiple areas, namely computer science, computer engineering, communications and networking, management, economy, social sciences, law and ethics, etc. Furthermore, some theories and paradigms defined elsewhere have been suggested by several research groups as promising tools to help define and characterize emerging collaborative organizational forms. Although still at the beginning of a long way to go, there is a growing awareness in the research and academic world, for the need to establish a stronger theoretical foundation for this new discipline and a number of recent works are contributing to this goal. From a utilitarian perspective, agility has been pointed out as one of the most appealing characteristics of collaborative networks to face the challenges of a fast changing socio-economic context. However, during the last years it became more evident that finding the right partners and establishing the necessary preconditions for starting an effective collaboration process are both costly and time consuming activities, and therefore an inhibitor of the aimed agility. Among others, obstacles include lack of information (e.g. non-availability of catalogs with normalized profiles of organizations) and lack of preparedness of organizations to join the collaborative process. Overcoming the mismatches resulting from the heterogeneity of potential partners (e.g. differences in infrastructures, corporate culture, methods of work, and business practices) requires considerable investment. Building trust, a pre-requisite for any effective collaboration, is not straight forward and requires time. Therefore the effective creation of truly dynamic collaborative networks requires a proper context in which potential members are prepared to rapidly get engaged in collaborative processes. The concept of breeding environment has thus emerged as an important facilitator for wider dissemination of collaborative networks and their practical materialization. The PRO-VE'05 held in Valencia, Spain, continues the 6th event in a series of successful working conferences on virtual enterprises. This book includes selected papers from that conference and should become a valuable tool to all of those interested in the advances and challenges of collaborative networks.

After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.

Servant Leader Human Resource Management provides a comprehensive conceptual framework based on a dignity enhancing stewardship model that integrates and balances mission achievement with motive, means and ends integrity from both a line manager and human resource department perspective.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, existing methods of executive leadership have experienced in-depth scrutiny beyond their control. In reference to Patrick Lencioni, to understand teams is to comprehend an "inattention to results, an avoidance of accountability, and a lack of commitment." Executive leaders have been operating through silent, lucrative and confidential team dynamics that are difficult to access, and subsequently difficult to challenge and understand. Dr Katsarou-Makin explores the team-to-trust and trust-to-team relations between executives and their associates - pertaining to the familial relations between these members and their unconventional codes of conduct. Under this umbrella of governance, directors, leaders and corporate gatekeepers operate in teams that are selected and trusted through unorthodox relations which must now come to light. Upon entry, Maria seeks to explore how these teams operate through a collective consensus of trust, the values this trust demands, the actions it produces and the failures it can cause.

The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others.

Unfortunately, a great number of today's overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to model complex systems.

The main objective of this book is to bring together existing methods for decision support systems creation within a coherent agent-based framework and to provide an interdisciplinary and flexible methodology for modeling complex and systemic domains.

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Much has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: * First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. * Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used.

"Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation" provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains.

The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications.

The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

The point of departure in the present book is that the decision-makers involved in the evaluation of alternatives under conflicting criteria express their preferential judgement by estimating ratios of subjective values or differences of the corresponding logarithms, the so-called grades. Three MCDA methods are studied in detail; the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique SMART, and the Additive and the Multiplicative AHP, both pairwise-comparison methods which do not suffer from the well-known shortcomings of the original Analytic Hierarchy Process. Context-related preference modeling on the basis of psychophysical research in visual perception and motor skills is extensively discussed in the introductory chapters. Thereafter many extensions of the ideas are presented via case studies in university administration, health care, environmental assessment, budget allocation, and energy planning at the national and the European level. The issues under consideration are: group decision-making with inhomogeneous power distributions, the search for a compromise solution, resource allocation and fair distribution, scenario analysis in long-term planning, conflict analysis via the pairwise comparison of concessions and multi-objective optimization. The final chapters are devoted to the fortunes of MCDA in the hands of its designers. Audience: The book presents methods for decision support and their applications in the fields of university administration, health care, environmental assessment, budget allocation, and strategic energy planning and will be of value to practitioners, students and researchers in these and related fields.

In this groundbreaking book, Keith Law, baseball writer for The Athletic and author of the acclaimed Smart Baseball, offers an era-spanning dissection of some of the best and worst decisions in modern baseball, explaining what motivated them, what can be learned from them, and how their legacy has shaped the game. For years, Daniel Kahneman's iconic work of behavioral science Thinking Fast and Slow has been required reading in front offices across Major League Baseball. In this smart, incisive, and eye-opening book, Keith Law applies Kahneman's ideas about decision making to the game itself. Baseball is a sport of decisions. Some are so small and routine they become the building blocks of the game itself--what pitch to throw or when to swing away. Others are so huge they dictate the future of franchises--when to make a strategic trade for a chance to win now, or when to offer a millions and a multi-year contract for a twenty-eight-year-old star. These decisions have long shaped the behavior of players, managers, and entire franchises. But as those choices have become more complex and data-driven, knowing what's behind them has become key to understanding the sport. This fascinating, revelatory work explores as never before the essential question: What were they thinking? Combining behavioral science and interviews with executives, managers, and players, Keith Law analyzes baseball's biggest decision making successes and failures, looking at how gambles and calculated risks of all sizes and scales have shaped the sport, and how the game's ongoing data revolution is rewriting decades of accepted decision making. In the process, he explores questions that have long been debated, from whether throwing harder really increases a player's risk of serious injury to whether teams actually "overvalue" trade prospects. Bringing his analytical and combative style to some of baseball's longest running debates, Law deepens our knowledge of the sport in this entertaining work that is both fun and deeply informative.

The book features eight studies related to governance and risk. It provides a critical evaluation of Basel II, and questions the significance of corruption in country risk analysis and investors' decision making. It offers a reliable model of early warning credit signals that helps managers to detect default risks, and provides a risk-based analysis of alternative production systems in Pakistan. It analyzes the effects of market liberalization on volatility spill-over across the globe, and examines past and future prospects for the Iraqi stock exchange. Finally, it proposes securitization as a means to finance costs of reconstruction in Iraq.

Meta-Heuristics: Advances and Trends in Local Search Paradigms for Optimizations comprises a carefully refereed selection of extended versions of the best papers presented at the Second Meta-Heuristics Conference (MIC 97). The selected articles describe the most recent developments in theory and applications of meta-heuristics, heuristics for specific problems, and comparative case studies. The book is divided into six parts, grouped mainly by the techniques considered. The extensive first part with twelve papers covers tabu search and its application to a great variety of well-known combinatorial optimization problems (including the resource-constrained project scheduling problem and vehicle routing problems). In the second part we find one paper where tabu search and simulated annealing are investigated comparatively and two papers which consider hybrid methods combining tabu search with genetic algorithms. The third part has four papers on genetic and evolutionary algorithms. Part four arrives at a new paradigm within meta-heuristics. The fifth part studies the behavior of parallel local search algorithms mainly from a tabu search perspective. The final part examines a great variety of additional meta-heuristics topics, including neural networks and variable neighbourhood search as well as guided local search. Furthermore, the integration of meta-heuristics with the branch-and-bound paradigm is investigated.

In Decision Modelling And Information Systems: The Information Value Chain the authors explain the interrelationships between the decision support, decision modelling, and information systems. The authors borrow from Porter's value chain concept originally set out in the organizational context and apply it to a corporate IS context. Thus data, information and knowledge is seen to be the progressive value added process leading to business intelligence. The book captures key issues that are of central interest to decision support researchers, professionals, and students. The book sets out an interdisciplinary and contemporary view of Decision Support System (DSS).

The first two parts of the book focus on the interdisciplinary decision support framework, in which mathematical programming (optimization) is taken as the inference engine. The role of business analytics and its relationship with recent developments in organisational theory, decision modelling, information systems and information technology are considered in depth. Part three of the book includes a carefully chosen selection of invited contributions from internationally-known researchers. These contributions are thought-provoking and cover key decision modelling and information systems issues.

These chapters include: Arthur Geoffrion on restoring transparency to computational solutions, Bill Inmon on the concept of the corporate information factory, Louis Ma and Efraim Turban on strategic information systems, and Erik Thomsen on information impact and its relationship to the value of information technology.

The final part of the book covers contemporary developments in the related area of business intelligence considered within an organizational context. The topics cover computing delivered across the web, management decision-making, and socio-economic challenges that lie ahead. It is now well accepted that globalisation and the impact of digital economy are profound; and the role of e-business and the delivery of decision models (business analytics) across the net lead to a challenging business environment. In this dynamic setting, decision support is one of the few interdisciplinary frameworks that can be rapidly adopted and deployed to so that businesses can survive and prosper by meeting these new challenges.