Long-listed for the FT & Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2011

The true story of how risk destroys, as told through the ongoing saga of AIG

From the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the subject of the financial crisis has been well covered. However, the story central to the crisis-that of AIG-has until now remained largely untold. "Fatal Risk: A Cautionary Tale of AIG's Corporate Suicide" tells the inside story of what really went on inside AIG that caused it to choke on risk and nearly brining down the entire economic system. The book
Reveals inside information available nowhere else, including the personal notes and records of key players such as the former Chairman of AIG, Hank GreenbergTakes readers behind the scenes at the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkDetails how an understanding of risk built AIG, but a disdain for government regulators led to a run-in with New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer

"Fatal Risk" is the comprehensive and compelling true story of the company at the center of the financial storm and how it nearly caused the entire economic system to collapse.

This book summarizes the state of the art in generalized linear models (GLMs) and their various extensions: GAMs, mixed models and credibility, and some nonlinear variants (GNMs). In order to deal with tail events, analytical tools from Extreme Value Theory are presented. Going beyond mean modeling, it considers volatility modeling (double GLMs) and the general modeling of location, scale and shape parameters (GAMLSS). Actuaries need these advanced analytical tools to turn the massive data sets now at their disposal into opportunities. The exposition alternates between methodological aspects and case studies, providing numerical illustrations using the R statistical software. The technical prerequisites are kept at a reasonable level in order to reach a broad readership. This is the first of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance. Although closely related to the other two volumes, this volume can be read independently.

The substantially updated third edition of the popular Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of actuarial science, for trainee actuaries preparing for professional actuarial examinations, and for life insurance practitioners who wish to increase or update their technical knowledge. The authors provide intuitive explanations alongside mathematical theory, equipping readers to understand the material in sufficient depth to apply it in real-world situations and to adapt their results in a changing insurance environment. Topics include modern actuarial paradigms, such as multiple state models, cash-flow projection methods and option theory, all of which are required for managing the increasingly complex range of contemporary long-term insurance products. Numerous exam-style questions allow readers to prepare for traditional professional actuarial exams, and extensive use of Excel ensures that readers are ready for modern, Excel-based exams and for the actuarial work environment. The Solutions Manual (ISBN 9781108747615), available for separate purchase, provides detailed solutions to the text's exercises.

This volume gathers selected peer-reviewed papers presented at the international conference "MAF 2016 - Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance", held in Paris (France) at the Universite Paris-Dauphine from March 30 to April 1, 2016. The contributions highlight new ideas on mathematical and statistical methods in actuarial sciences and finance. The cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance is a very fruitful field, one that yields unique theoretical models and practical applications, as well as new insights in the discussion of problems of national and international interest. This volume is addressed to academicians, researchers, Ph.D. students and professionals.

Modern risk management as practiced today faces significant obstacles-we argue-primarily due to the fundamental premise of the concept itself. It asserts that we are mainly dealing with measurable, quantifiable risks and that we can manage the uncontrollable by relying on formal control-based systems, which has produced a general view that (enterprise) risk management is a technical-scientific discipline. Strategic Risk Leadership offers a critique of the status quo, and encourages leaders, executives, and chief risk officers to find fresh approaches that can help them deal more proactively with what the future may hold. The book provides an overview of the history of risk management and current risk governance approaches as prescribed by leading risk management standards, such as COSO and ISO31000. This enables practitioners to challenge the frameworks and improve their adoption in practice introducing sustainable resilience as a (more) meaningful response to uncertain and unknowable conditions. The book shows how traditional thinking downplays the significance of human behavior and judgmental biases as key elements of major organizational exposures illustrated and explained through numerous case examples and studies. This book is essential reading for strategic risk managers to understand the requirements for effective risk governance practices in the contemporary and rapidly changing global risk landscape. Indeed, it is a valuable resource for all risk executives, leaders, and chief risk officers, as well as advanced students of risk management.

Index based insurance schemes can play a vital role in insuring poor people in developing countries against a multitude of risk. However, the concept doesn't go along without any obstacles. Matthias Roedl provides a theoretical framework of index based insurance schemes and further highlights where the latter distinguishes from a classic indemnity insurance. Thereby, scholars can gain a comprehensive theoretical insight into the topic, while practitioners are enabled to identify and understand fundamental challenges for their project upfront as well as to foster sound solutions.

Bislang war Ungarn in der vergleichenden Wohlfahrtsstaatsforschung kaum beachtet worden. Das Buch des an der Universitat Szeged (Ungarn) lehrenden Autors beschreibt nun die Entwicklung des ungarischen Wohlfahrtsstaates im 20. Jahrhundert, einschliesslich der kommunistischen Ara, und analysiert insbesondere deren konvergierenden und divergierenden Grundzuge in einem westeuropaischen vergleichenden Kontext. Neben der Ausgabenentwicklung wird auch die Entwicklung von Institutionen und sozialen Rechten untersucht. Aus dem Inhalt: Kap. 1: Changes in welfare expenditures Kap. 2: Major structural characteristics of welfare Kap. 3: Development of social rights Kap. 4: Organization and control Kap. 5: Determinants of welfare development Bibliography Tables Appendix"

This book, unique in its composition, reviews the academic empirical literature on how CDSs actually work in practice, including during distressed times of market crises. It also discusses the mechanics of single-name and index CDSs, the theoretical costs and benefits of CDSs, as well as comprehensively summarizes the empirical evidence on important aspects of these instruments of risk transfer. Full-time academics, researchers at financial institutions, and students will benefit from the dispassionate and comprehensive summary of the academic literature; they can read this book instead of identifying, collecting, and reading the hundreds of academic articles on the important subject of credit risk transfer using derivatives and benefit from the synthesis of the literature provided.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

This book explores the profound transformation that has taken place in European insurance legislation since January 2016. Expert contributions discuss the changes that have taken place in the supervision of insurance and reinsurance undertakings through an economic risk-based approach. They outline the European insurance market before going on to show how Solvency II and Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) are expected to generate significant benefits and have a positive impact on all parties involved in the insurance industry, the supervisory authorities and the insured. They also show how Solvency II is likely to benefit the economy as a whole, promoting more efficient allocation of capital and risk in a financial stability framework. This volume will be of interest to academics and researchers in the field of insurance regulation.

This book is the first attempt to re-define objective risk. It addresses the cost of running out of capital as a generalized cost syndrome and explains how it is possible to describe this cost in such a way as to give it practical, real-life significance for personal finances, company finances and the economy as a whole. The discussion begins by presenting an intuitive and useful definition of risk: the probability of prospective capital shortfall. From this point it establishes a risk theory and expands the work of major thinkers such as Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes, and adds reserve capital as a new financial risk management tool, with an economic function that is different from savings. This book will be of interest to economists, politicians, and decision makers as well as to the general public.

This book adopts an international perspective to examine how the online sale of insurance challenges the insurance regulation and the insurance contract, with a focus on insurance sales, consumer protection, cyber risks and privacy, as well as dispute resolution. Today insurers, policyholders, intermediaries and regulators interact in an increasingly online world with profound implications for what has up to now been a traditionally operating industry. While the growing threats to consumer and business data from cyber attacks constitute major sources of risk for insurers, at the same time cyber insurance has become the fastest growing commercial insurance product in many jurisdictions. Scholars and practitioners from Europe, the United States and Asia review these topics from the viewpoints of insurers, policyholders and insurance intermediaries. In some cases, existing insurance regulations appear readily adaptable to the online world, such as prohibitions on deceptive marketing of insurance products and unfair commercial practices, which can be applied to advertising through social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as to traditional written material. In other areas, current regulatory and business practices are proving to be inadequate to the task and new ones are emerging. For example, the insurance industry and insurance supervisors are exploring how to review, utilize, profit from and regulate the explosive growth of data mining and predictive analytics ("big data"), which threaten long-standing privacy protection and insurance risk classification laws. This book's ambitious international scope matches its topics. The online insurance market is cross-territorial and cross-jurisdictional with insurers often operating internationally and as part of larger financial-services holding companies. The authors' exploration of these issues from the vantage points of some of the world's largest insurance markets - the U.S., Europe and Japan - provides a comparative framework, which is necessary for the understanding of online insurance.

This informative volume synthesizes the literatures on health economics, risk management, and health services into a concise guide to the financial and social basics of health insurance with an eye to its wide-scale upgrade. Its scope takes in concepts of health capital, strengths and limitations of insurance models, the effectiveness of coverage and services, and the roles of healthcare providers and government agencies in the equation. Coverage surveys the current state of group and public policies, most notably the effects of the Affordable Care Act on insurers and consumers and the current interest in universal coverage and single-payer plans. Throughout, the author provides systemic reasons to explain why today's health insurance fails so many consumers, concluding with reality-based recommendations for making insurance more valuable to both today's market and consumer well-being. Included among the topics: *Defining health insurance and healthcare finance. *Consuming and investing in health. *The scope of health insurance and its constraints. *Matching health insurance supply and demand. *The role of government in health insurance. *Ongoing challenges and the future of health insurance. Bringing a needed degree of objectivity to often highly subjective material, What Is Health Insurance (Good) For? is a call to reform to be read by health insurance researchers (including risk management insurance and health services research), professionals, practitioners, and policymakers.

This book draws readers' attention to the financial aspects of daily life at a corporation by combining a robust mathematical setting and the explanation and derivation of the most popular models of the firm. Intended for third-year undergraduate students of business finance, quantitative finance, and financial mathematics, as well as first-year postgraduate students, it is based on the twin pillars of theory and analytics, which merge in a way that makes it easy for students to understand the exact meaning of the concepts and their representation and applicability in real-world contexts. Examples are given throughout the chapters in order to clarify the most intricate aspects; where needed, there are appendices at the end of chapters, offering additional mathematical insights into specific topics. Due to the recent growth in knowledge demand in the private sector, practitioners can also profit from the book as a bridge-builder between university and industry. Lastly, the book provides useful information for managers who want to deepen their understanding of risk management and come to recognize what may have been lacking in their own systems.

This volume aims to discuss the current research, theory, methodology and applications of macropreudential regulation and policy for the Islamic financial industry. Published in cooperation with the Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), this book features contributions from a workshop presented in collaboration with the University College of Bahrain (UCB) in Manama, Bahrain, aimed to bring together experts in Islamic banking and regulation and financial economics. This resulting book sheds light on how macroprudential policy may be implemented in the Islamic financial system, and indicates current challenges and their effects on economic growth, financial stability and monetary regulation. Macroprudential policy is increasingly seen as a way of dealing with the different dimensions of systemic risk. But many central banks, bank supervisors and regulators have limited experience with macroprudential tools, particularly in the Islamic financial industry. Given the complementarities between monetary policy and financial stability, it appears that central banks would always play an important role in macroprudential policy. But how should macroprudential policy best interact with monetary policy? It is becoming more pressing for the central banks to conduct monetary policy in which its conventional banking system operates side by side with Islamic banking system. This question has received increasing attention in the research literature but there is much we still need to learn. This is why new insights from research on macroprudential policy - which has gained important impetus in recent years - are so valuable. Featuring contributions on topics such as macroprudential regulation, policy, tools and instruments; governance, systematic risk, monetary policy, and bank leverage, the editors provide a collection of comprehensive research covering the most important issues on macroprudential policy and regulation for the Islamic financial industry. This volume is expected to be a significant contribution to the literature in the field of Islamic finance and evaluation of public policies to promote the development for Islamic financial industry. It is also served as a key text for students, academics, researchers, policy-makers in the field of Islamic finance.

This book describes specific problems and proposes solutions for different areas of finance in Central and Southeastern European countries. Covering a broad spectrum of topics, from monetary economics and electronic money to capital markets, banking and insurance, it comprises theoretical and empirical contributions by authors from nine countries - Poland, Slovakia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Serbia and Greece. Intended for academics as well as policy makers and practitioners it offers new perspectives on Central and Southeastern European finance research.

This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

This study investigates the complex link between natural disasters, individual behaviour - in the form of an individual's risk-taking propensity and level of trust - and the demand for microinsurance. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards and climate change as they affect their development processes and set back poverty reduction efforts. Using a unique data set for rural Cambodia based on a survey, experimental games and a discrete choice experiment, the study highlights the importance of perceptions, expectations and psychological factors in decision-making processes with substantial consequences for long-term economic perspectives and poverty alleviation.

This book traces the development and analyses the performance of life insurance industry in India, since inception of this sector, using different business indicators over the years. It discusses the evolution and changing features of the Indian insurance industry in 3 phases: phase I from 1818 to 1956, phase II from 1956 to 2000 (known as the nationalisation period) and phase III post 2000 (called the post reform period). The book also measures the relative efficiency and productivity of the life insurance industry in India for the post-reform period, by employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Despite the fact that the life insurance sector recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in terms of total premiums and 21% in terms of new business premium collections during the post reform period, the insurers continue to grapple with the issue of profitability. Against this background, the book presents results on the factors determining profitability of the life insurance companies using measures of efficiency and competition. By helping regulatory authorities determine the future course of action in the context of entry of foreign insurers and also in establishing a level playing field, the book has important policy implications.

In the first book of its kind, Turnbull traces the development and implementation of actuarial ideas, from the conception of Equitable Life in the mid-18th century to the start of the 21st century. This book analyses the historical development of British actuarial thought in each of its three main practice areas of life assurance, pensions and general insurance. It discusses how new actuarial approaches were developed within each practice area, and how these emerging ideas interacted with each other and were often driven by common external factors such as shocks in the economic environment, new intellectual ideas from academia and developments in technology. A broad range of historically important actuarial topics are discussed such as the development of the blueprint for the actuarial management of with-profit business; historical developments in mortality modelling methods; changes in actuarial thinking on investment strategy for life and pensions business; changing perspectives on the objectives and methods for funding Defined Benefit pensions; the application of risk theory in general insurance reserving; the adoption of risk-based reserving and the Guaranteed Annuity Option crisis at the end of the 20th century. This book also provides an historical overview of some of the most important external contributions to actuarial thinking: in particular, the first century or so of modern thinking on probability and statistics, starting in the 1650s with Pascal and Fermat; and the developments in the field of financial economics over the third quarter of the twentieth century. This book identifies where historical actuarial thought heuristically anticipated some of the fundamental ideas of modern finance, and the challenges that the profession wrestled with in reconciling these ideas with traditional actuarial methods. Actuaries have played a profoundly influential role in the management of the United Kingdom's most important long-term financial institutions over the last two hundred years. This book will be the first to chart the influence of the actuarial profession to modern day. It will prove a valuable resource for actuaries, actuarial trainees and students of actuarial science. It will also be of interest to academics and professionals in related financial fields such as accountants, statisticians, economists and investment managers.

This book is the outcome of the CIMPA School on Statistical Methods and Applications in Insurance and Finance, held in Marrakech and Kelaat M'gouna (Morocco) in April 2013. It presents two lectures and seven refereed papers from the school, offering the reader important insights into key topics. The first of the lectures, by Frederic Viens, addresses risk management via hedging in discrete and continuous time, while the second, by Boualem Djehiche, reviews statistical estimation methods applied to life and disability insurance. The refereed papers offer diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on subjects including optimal control, financial modeling using stochastic differential equations, pricing and hedging of financial derivatives, and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter of the volume includes a comprehensive bibliography to promote further research.

In Global Risk Agility and Decision Making, Daniel Wagner and Dante Disparte, two leading authorities in global risk management, make a compelling case for the need to bring traditional approaches to risk management and decision making into the twenty-first century. Based on their own deep and multi-faceted experience in risk management across numerous firms in dozens of countries, the authors call for a greater sense of urgency from corporate boards, decision makers, line managers, policymakers, and risk practitioners to address and resolve the plethora of challenges facing today's private and public sector organizations. Set against the era of manmade risk, where transnational terrorism, cyber risk, and climate change are making traditional risk models increasingly obsolete, they argue that remaining passively on the side-lines of the global economy is dangerous, and that understanding and actively engaging the world is central to achieving risk agility. Their definition of risk agility taps into the survival and risk-taking instincts of the entrepreneur while establishing an organizational imperative focused on collective survival. The agile risk manager is part sociologist, anthropologist, psychologist, and quant. Risk agility implies not treating risk as a cost of doing business, but as a catalyst for growth. Wagner and Disparte bring the concept of risk agility to life through a series of case studies that cut across industries, countries and the public and private sectors. The rich, real-world examples underscore how once mighty organizations can be brought to their knees-and even their demise by simple miscalculations or a failure to just do the right thing. The reader is offered deep insights into specific risk domains that are shaping our world, including terrorism, cyber risk, climate change, and economic resource nationalism, as well as a frame of reference from which to think about risk management and decision making in our increasingly complicated world. This easily digestible book will shed new light on the often complex discipline of risk management. Readers will learn how risk management is being transformed from a business prevention function to a values-based framework for thriving in increasingly perilous times. From tackling governance structures and the tone at the top to advocating for greater transparency and adherence to value systems, this book will establish a new generation of risk leader, with clarion voices calling for greater risk agility. The rise of agile decision makers coincides with greater resilience and responsiveness in the era of manmade risk.

This book examines good faith in non-marine insurance and takaful (Islamic insurance) contracts in Malaysia, and proposes holistic law reform of the same. The first two-thirds of the book comprise an extensive comparative legal analysis of the issues between Malaysia, Australia and the United Kingdom, with the final third dedicated to a socio-economic analysis of law reform and suggestions for law reform particularly suited to Malaysia. The book evaluates whether the duty of utmost good faith (the cornerstone of insurance and takaful contracts) is effectively regulated and, in turn, observed by insurers (and takaful operators) and insureds alike in Malaysia. The adequacy of the Insurance Act 1996 (Malaysia), the Takaful Act 1984 (Malaysia), the Financial Services Act 2013 (Malaysia) and the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 (Malaysia) is evaluated, along with the supporting infrastructure and oversight measures introduced by the Malaysian government. In doing so, The book examines the duty of utmost good faith from both a doctrinal and a social science perspective, in order to propose suitable legal reform.

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.