Optimizing Digital Strategy explores the choices facing organizations in the rapidly changing world of technology-enabled business. From performance marketing through to personalization, on-demand retailing and AI, this book maps out commercial and customer-focused challenges and explains how leaders can get the most out of their digital strategies. Rather than rushing headlong into adopting the latest digital platforms, tools and technologies, the book challenges leaders to step back from the demands for constant investment in new technology and drive better returns from existing assets.

Presenting a sustainable model of e-commerce that is appropriate to any individual organization's needs, Optimizing Digital Strategy addresses the repetitive dilemma between even more investment in technology and the need to improve margins and grow revenue. Illustrated by the authors' own digital work for global brands such as The Economist, Sky, O2, Regus, the Financial Times, Lidl and L.K.Bennett, this book shows how to balance the need to remain competitive, fully deliver customer expectations, and put resources behind investments that will deliver the best return.

When The Knowledge-Creating Company appeared, it was hailed as a landmark work in the field of knowledge management. Now, Enabling Knowledge Creation ventures even further into this all-important territory, showing how firms can generate and nurture ideas by using the concepts introduced in the first book.

This title looks at how power communication in the recent years has begun to reflect on its own limits in a new way. It focuses on a number of areas within the welfare state and how power desires non-power, including financial policy, voluntary policy, educational policy and public steering technologies.

No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions--no matter how good the intentions behind them--are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve.
So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.
In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts.
Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should think twice--questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

This title covers topics from modeling and simulation to games and entertainment. With contributions from leaders in systems and organizational modeling, behavioral and social sciences, computing and visualization, and gaming and entertainment, "Organizational Simulation" both articulates the grand vision of immersive environments and shows, in detail, how to realize it. This book offers unparalleled insight into the cutting edge of the field, since it was written by those who actually researched, designed, developed, deployed, marketed, sold, and critiqued today's best organizational simulations.The coverage in this book is divided into four sections. Introduction - it outlines the need for organizational simulation to support strategic thinking, design of unprecedented systems, and organizational learning, including the functionality and technology required to enable this support. Behaviors - it covers the state of knowledge of individual, group, and team behaviors and performance, how performance can best be supported, how performance is affected by national differences, and how organizational performance can best be measured.Modeling - describes the latest approaches to modeling and simulating people, groups, teams, and organizations, as well as narrative contexts and organizational environments within which these entities act, drawing from a rich set of modeling methods and tools. Simulations and Games - illustrates a wide range of fielded simulations, games, and entertainment, including the methods and tools employed for designing, developing, deploying, and evaluating these systems, as well as the social implications for the associated communities that have emerged. Addressing all levels of organizational simulation architecture with theories and applications, and enabling technologies for each, "Organizational Simulation" offers students and professionals the premier reference and practical toolbox for this dynamic field.

Advance Praise for Against the Gods

"With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it."—John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University

"No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." —Robert Heilbronerc author of The Worldly Philosophers

"A fascinating and unusual perspective on modern man's Promethean attempt to master risk. The book reads easily and provokes thought—a rare combination." —William Kristol Editor and Publisher, The Weekly Standard

"Peter Bernstein leads us effortlessly through the history of risk because he writes so beautifully. This is a book on a left brain subject that will have right brain readers lining up for more!"—Robert Ferguson Managing Director, Bankers Trust Australia Limited

"In Against the Gods, Peter Bernstein, a scholar, historian, and successful investor gives us the history of great thinkers whose visions put the future at the service of the present."—Dr. Marc Faber Managing Director, Marc Faber Limited, Hong Kong

"This looks like a new classic to me."—Barton M. Biggs, Chairman Morgan Stanley Asset Management, Inc.

"It's a sizzler!"—Charles P. Kindleberger author of Manias, Panics & Crashes

In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the more distant past. Against the Gods, a narrative that reads like a novel, chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from the oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. This is a richly-woven tale of Greek philosophers and Arab mathematicians, of merchants and scientists, gamblers and philosophers, world-renowned intellects and obscure but inspired amateurs who helped discover the modern methods of putting the future at the service of the present, replacing helplessness before the fates with choice and decision.

When investors buy stocks, surgeons perform operations, engineers design bridges, entrepreneurs launch new businesses, astronauts explore the heavens, and politicians run for office, risk is their inescapable partner. Yet their actions reveal that risk today need not be feared: managing risk has become synonymous with challenge and opportunity.

Bernstein presents fascinating vignettes of such towering intellects as Omar Khayyam, Pascal and Bernoulli, Bayes and Keynes, Markowitz and Arrow, and Gauss, Galton and von Neumann. With his engaging literary style, he clarifies the concepts of probability, sampling, regression to the mean, game theory, and rational versus irrational decision making. The final sections of the book raise important questions about the role of the computer, the relationship between facts and subjective beliefs, the impact of chaos theory, the role of the burgeoning markets for derivatives, and the looming dominance of numbers.

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk is that rare book that turns the most profound issues of our time into pure reading pleasure.

This book examines how the police make decisions in real life situations, particularly in major enquiries. The two key themes explored are real-time decision making along with what "works" in such circumstances. It aims to set out how successful decisions are arrived at in a variety of difficult and time-constrained situations and discusses the lessons that can be learnt from this. Written by practitioners and academics, the book explores a range of topics, from the decision making process involved operational matters and in difficult-so-solve murder enquiries. It not only examines decision making but also how experienced decision makers function. It looks at the psychology of police decision making, decision making involved in cold case investigations, and discusses the need for "grip" during major investigations. The contributors are experienced and respected practitioners and academics This book will appeal particularly to those studying Policing and Criminology and also to Investigating Officers and those involved in professionalising investigative practice.

Details of the 20 best management strategies for operational risk

"Finally, we have a comprehensive, practical tool for operational risk. This book covers all critical aspects of operational risk, from simply how to get started to the complex modeling of the risk. The case studies are especially useful."
–Mark Balfan
Senior Vice President and Group Head, Corporate Risk Management
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi

"Doug Hoffman was in the business of managing operational risk before most and it shows. His book is both comprehensive and to the point–a tough combination to achieve."
–Simon Wills
Director, British Bankers’ Association

"Operational risk has become a central issue in the management of enterprise risk and for capital adequacy standards for financial institutions. Doug Hoffman is among the very few pioneers in developing an understanding of operational risk, the discipline of operational risk management, and related capital attribution standards for economic and regulatory capital. This book will become a reference work for the financial services industry and financial regulators."
–George J. Vojta
Director, Financial Services Forum

"In a quickly evolving area, this book provides a balanced and thorough discussion of the variety of approaches a bank can use to establish a risk management and measurement system for operational risk. The book presents a solid conceptual analysis of the issues to consider, paired with practical guidance."
–Barbara Matthews
Banking Advisor and Regulatory Counsel, The Institute of International Finance, Inc.

Managing Operational Risk is the answer for executives and operational risk managers of financial firms who want to establish the best policies for bridling operational risk at a firmwide and enterprise-wide level. The techniques and practices presented here include:

• Dynamic risk monitoring and reporting–implement a continuum of data and risk tools for effective identification, assessment, mitigation, and finance
• Risk assessment, modeling, and risk-adjusted performance measures–calculate, monitor, and manage the effects of operational losses on firmwide and business unit levels
• Operational risk technology and systems–ensure program efficiency by leveraging technology in enterprise-wide data gathering
• Market perception–develop a plan and ongoing discipline for protecting corporate integrity and managing crises that may impact a firm’s reputation, brand, or franchise
• Insurance and risk finance programs–design, evaluate, and fine-tune insurance and developing financial programs for operational risks

If you can slice a melon or make a right-hand turn, you can be a breakthrough innovator.
The title of this book, "Cause a Disturbance," says it all, and it most assuredly will cause a disturbance in the way you think about business: your business.
Everyone knows--and everyone talks about--how important innovation is in the competitive battle to find, delight, and keep customers, yet far too few achieve it. As Tencer and Cardoso explain, "There's a big difference between an occasional spark of innovation and an eternal flame." But the reality is different; most firms struggle to consistently innovate. All that can change. Kick-start your business with attitude. Cause a disturbance
Whether your business is in transition or simply looking for an innovative spark, give it a lift with "Cause a Disturbance." Within these pages you will learn how innovation can change your business in simple steps through The 90% Rule(R) a straightforward philosophy that drives you to constantly ask "What's the next 10%? What's the next product, service, or process improvement that will create a continuously engaged customer base and strengthen my brand?"
Cause a disturbance in the way you think about innovation as you open your mind to the possibilities--and simplicity--of being innovative every day

This book provides an insight into the black-box of leadership learning that acts as a companion to guide leadership development. It has been written to enable the reader to reflect on their own experience and critique this against four case profiles of leadership learning: the public and private sectors; women managers; and owner-managers.

"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making (an accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making). It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics of this title will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant. In Volume 7, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as marketing demand applications. There are, also, sections on forecasting methodologies and evaluation, as well as on other application areas of forecasting.

This book is meant to provide a glimpse into differing facets of organizational management that allows for continued success through refinement of skills promoting operational awareness in today's rapidly evolving world of business.

That monkey could be someone else's problem!

This book, one of the most liberating in the extraordinary One Minute Manager Library, teaches an unforgettable lesson: how to save time to do what you want and need to do. Step by step the authors show how managers can free themselves from doing everyone else's job and ensure that every problem is handled by the proper person. By using the Four Rules of Monkey Management, managers will learn to become effective supervisors of time, energy and talent – especially their own.

"With humour and logic the authors describe the delicate business of assigning monkeys to the right masters and keeping them healthy…Can lead to effective delegation"
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY

Artificial Intelligence is a seemingly neutral technology, but it is increasingly used to manage workforces and make decisions to hire and fire employees. Its proliferation in the workplace gives the impression of a fairer, more efficient system of management. A machine can't discriminate, after all. Augmented Exploitation explores the reality of the impact of AI on workers' lives. While the consensus is that AI is a completely new way of managing a workplace, the authors show that, on the contrary, AI is used as most technologies are used under capitalism: as a smokescreen that hides the deep exploitation of workers. Going beyond platform work and the gig economy, the authors explore emerging forms of algorithmic governance and AI-augmented apps that have been developed to utilise innovative ways to collect data about workers and consumers, as well as to keep wages and worker representation under control. They also show that workers are not taking this lying down, providing case studies of new and exciting form of resistance that are springing up across the globe.

This book presents various methods for sustainability assessment of energy systems, under various different conditions and scenarios. It answers the questions of how to measure the sustainability of energy systems by adopting appropriate metrics and methods. This book provides readers with a comprehensive view of the frontiers of sustainability assessment methods for energy system analysis. It presents various methodologies, allowing readers to understand: the complete metrics for sustainability assessment; life cycle thinking for sustainability assessment of energy systems; and the advanced sustainability assessment methods for energy systems. This book is of interest to researchers, engineers, decision makers, and postgraduate students within the field of energy systems, sustainability, and decision analysis.

This volume brings together both political and educational scientists. While educational research literature has so far not systematically addressed the tool of simulations of decision-making, political scientists have hardly used insights from research on assessment or on motivation and interest of students. Almost all political science publications on simulations merely discuss how to implement the tool in class and fall short of providing evidence of the effects on student outcomes such as increased interest and performance. Combining the two disciplines is mutually enriching. Political science benefits from state of the art educational science measuring and testing of the claims made by the proponents of simulations, while educational sciences adds the systematic analysis of simulations of decision-making to their list of empirical objects, which also adds insights to the theories on the affective component of student learning. It is the explicit aim of the volume to address how simulating decision-making environments fosters learning. Implications for research and practice regarding student learning are addressed in all chapters.

Is Apple conscious?

Could a cyber–human system sense a potential terrorist attack?

Or make diagnosing a rare and little-known disease routine?

Computers are not replacing us: they are enhancing us. Different intelligences are joining together to do things we thought were impossible.

Whether it’s devising innovations to tackle climate change, helping job seekers and employers find one another, or identifying the outbreak of a serious disease, groups of humans and machines are already working together to solve all sorts of problems. And they will do a lot more.

The future will be like another world – a place where we’ll think differently. In many ways, we are already there.

Business models are the beating heart of your firm's value proposition.

Great business models drive rapid growth; bad business models can doom the most promising ventures. Brilliant Business Models clearly shows you how to create, test, adapt, and innovate successful and appropriate business models in any business context. Every company has a business model. When the business model works, the company creates value. Brilliant Business Models combines the latest research, straightforward tools and current examples to bring this surprisingly tricky topic to life. Straightforward cases from the author's research and experience highlight key lessons. This book applies a novel, life-cycle based approach to make business models relevant to your company's development stage. Your company changes over time-so should your business model.

- Understand how and why business models matter to your organisations success

- Learn how to evaluate and test business models to identify the most appropriate model

- Use the business model life-cycle approach to keep your business model relevant and successful.

Bring your company into the digital era without compromising your core business In The Digital Transformer's Dilemma: How to Energize Your Core Business While Building Disruptive Products and Services, the authors show companies how to go digital while also advancing their core business. The book emphasizes how to strike a difficult balance between establishing a new (digital) business and re-vitalizing - and digitizing - the legacy business. The core of the book is focused on the actual implementation of the digital transformation across both businesses, providing concrete tips, tricks, tools and action plans across six key dimensions: Crafting a flexible organization Using technology as a driver Designing the necessary processes Building transformational leaders "Right-skilling" the workforce of the future Galvanizing cultural change The Digital Transformer's Dilemma is a very visual book, filled with dozens of engaging illustrations that bring the contained concepts to life on the page. Based on 100+ interviews with senior executives at leading companies (such as Nestle, Novartis, Volkswagen, BNP Paribas, BASF and Michelin) and smaller hidden champions, numerous illuminating case studies, and the authors' own experience from working in international management consulting and years of academic experience, the book highlights the fundamental principles required for executives and businesspeople to transform legacy organizations into digitally empowered companies.

The book develops manufacturing concepts and applications beyond physical production and towards a wider manufacturing value chain incorporating external stakeholders that include suppliers of raw materials and parts, customers, collaborating manufacturing companies, manufacturing service providers, and environmental organisations. The focal point of the value chain remains as a manufacturing system and its operations whiles flows of parts/materials and information and services across the supply/value chain tiers are taken into account. The book emphasises on the two innovative paradigms of Reconfigurable Manufacturing Systems (RMS) and the 4th industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) along with their incorporated development. RMS, as a relatively new paradigm, has been introduced to meet the requirements of 'the factories of the future', which is aimed by Industry 4.0, though introducing greater responsiveness and customised flexibility into production systems, in which changes in product volumes and types occur regularly. Manufacturing responsiveness can be achieved by RMS through reconfiguring the production facilities according to changing demands of products and new market conditions. The book addresses challenges of mass-customisation and dynamic changes in the supply-chain environment by focusing on developing new techniques related to integrability, scalability and re-configurability at a system level and manufacturing readiness in terms of financial and technical feasibility of RMS. It demonstrate the expected impacts of an RMS design on operational performance and its supply/value chain in the current/future manufacturing environment facing dynamic changes in the internal/external circumstances. In order to establish a circular economy through the RMS value chain, an integrated data-based reconfiguration link is introduced to incorporate information sharing amongst the value chain stakeholders and facilitate grouping products into families with allocation of the product families to the corresponding system configurations with optimal product-process allocation. Decision support systems such as multi criteria decision making tools are developed and applied for the selection of product families and optimising product-process configuration. The proposed models are illustrated through real case studies in applicable manufacturing firms.

The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.

Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic.

Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge.

Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author's own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix.

Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including:

- Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives

- Risk analysis and assessment

- Communicating and justifying controversial decisions

- Personal life choices and political judgments

- Adapting decision aid to organizations

The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education.

An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email [email protected]) or directly from [email protected].

"Environmental Finance provides a thorough, objective discussion of the environmental risk issues facing financial institutions and how to effectively manage both the challenges and opportunities they present. A very current, informative and comprehensive reference."
–James R. Evans, Manager, Environmental Risk Management
RBC Financial Group

Today, environmentally irresponsible companies run the risk of hurting their bottom line as well as their image. As a result, environmental risk is reshaping the way insurance companies underwrite to corporate clients, banks lend, investors invest, and companies operate. Banks and insurance companies are also developing new environmental financial products to help their corporate customers protect their bottom line against changes in environmental legislation and the impact of adverse weather and climate change.

Environmental Finance: A Guide to Environmental Risk Assessment and Financial Products is one of the first books to explore this emerging field. This comprehensive reference opens with a discussion of the concepts and tools used by financial institutions to develop environmental policies and products, and then details how recent changes in the financial services sector have affected the capacity of companies to respond to the environmental challenge. From here you’ll learn about innovative new products such as tradable pollution permits, weather derivatives, catastrophe bonds, and many other market-based solutions that are being created in response to every type of environmental problem–from hurricanes to asbestos.

The financial and social consequences of environmental risk will continue to grow. Learn how to hedge these risks and come out on top with Environmental Finance as your guide.

Best-selling author Cass R. Sunstein examines how to avoid worst-case scenarios The world is increasingly confronted with new challenges related to climate change, globalization, disease, and technology. Governments are faced with having to decide how much risk is worth taking, how much destruction and death can be tolerated, and how much money should be invested in the hopes of avoiding catastrophe. Lacking full information, should decision-makers focus on avoiding the most catastrophic outcomes? When should extreme measures be taken to prevent as much destruction as possible? Averting Catastrophe explores how governments ought to make decisions in times of imminent disaster. Cass R. Sunstein argues that using the "maximin rule," which calls for choosing the approach that eliminates the worst of the worst-case scenarios, may be necessary when public officials lack important information, and when the worst-case scenario is too disastrous to contemplate. He underscores this argument by emphasizing the reality of "Knightian uncertainty," found in circumstances in which it is not possible to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Sunstein brings foundational issues in decision theory in close contact with real problems in regulation, law, and daily life, and considers other potential future risks. At once an approachable introduction to decision-theory and a provocative argument for how governments ought to handle risk, Averting Catastrophe offers a definitive path forward in a world rife with uncertainty.