This graduate-level textbook covers modelling, programming and analysis of stochastic computer simulation experiments, including the mathematical and statistical foundations of simulation and why it works. The book is rigorous and complete, but concise and accessible, providing all necessary background material. Object-oriented programming of simulations is illustrated in Python, while the majority of the book is programming language independent. In addition to covering the foundations of simulation and simulation programming for applications, the text prepares readers to use simulation in their research. A solutions manual for end-of-chapter exercises is available for instructors.

Franz Ferschl is seventy. According to his birth certificate it is true, but it is unbelievable. Two of the three editors remembers very well the Golden Age of Operations Research at Bonn when Franz Ferschl worked together with Wilhelm Krelle, Martin Beckmann and Horst Albach. The importance of this fruitful cooperation is reflected by the fact that half of the contributors to this book were strongly influenced by Franz Ferschl and his colleagues at the University of Bonn. Clearly, Franz Ferschl left his traces at all the other places of his professional activities, in Vienna and Munich. This is demonstrated by the present volume as well. Born in 1929 in the Upper-Austrian Miihlviertel, his scientific education brought him to Vienna where he studied mathematics. In his early years he was attracted by Statistics and Operations Research. During his employment at the Osterreichische Bundeskammer fUr Gewerbliche Wirtschaft in Vienna he prepared his famous book on queueing theory and stochastic processes in economics. This work has been achieved during his scarce time left by his duties at the Bundeskammer, mostly between 6 a.m. and midnight. All those troubles were, however, soon rewarded by the chair of statistics at Bonn University. As a real Austrian, the amenities of the Rhineland could not prevent him from returning to Vienna, where he took the chair of statistics.

The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing and strategic decision making. It is the hope and direction of this research annual to become an applications and practitioner oriented publication. Topics will include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgementally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

Today's business world is under constant digital threats that can cause unpredictable damage and weaken the competitiveness of businesses. With digital transformation risks and cyber-attacks increased by extraordinary situations such as the recent pandemic, new approaches are needed in the management of these emerging digital conflicts to develop sustainable business strategies and become a robust business of the future. Conflict Management in Digital Business: New Strategy and Approach is a pioneering and innovative guide in the context of digital conflicts in the value chain of businesses and on digital conflicts in business management and strategy. Conflict management is discussed in the context of issues of production and planning, logistics, marketing, procurement, technology development, human resource management, and business infrastructure. Sectoral issues with conflicting businesses, organizational behavior, digital sustainability, cyber business management, cyber-attack, and cyberwarfare strategies for businesses are discussed in detail to bring crucial principles in the context of management and strategy to all businesses that desire to be a business of the future. Providing readers with a unique guide of how businesses can achieve resilience to digital conflict, Conflict Management in Digital Business helps prepare for unexpected situations such as pandemics, to maintain competitive advantage, and illuminating pathways to turn conflicts caused by extraordinary situations into opportunities.

This encyclopedic, detailed exposition spans all the steps of one-period allocation from the foundations to the most advanced developments.

Multivariate estimation methods are analyzed in depth, including non-parametric, maximum-likelihood under non-normal hypotheses, shrinkage, robust, and very general Bayesian techniques. Evaluation methods such as stochastic dominance, expected utility, value at risk and coherent measures are thoroughly discussed in a unified setting and applied in a variety of contexts, including prospect theory, total return and benchmark allocation.

Portfolio optimization is presented with emphasis on estimation risk, which is tackled by means of Bayesian, resampling and robust optimization techniques.

All the statistical and mathematical tools, such as copulas, location-dispersion ellipsoids, matrix-variate distributions, cone programming, are introduced from the basics. Comprehension is supported by a large number of figures and examples, as well as real trading and asset management case studies.

At symmys.com the reader will find freely downloadable complementary materials: the Exercise Book; a set of thoroughly documented MATLAB(r) applications; and the Technical Appendices with all the proofs. More materials and complete reviews can also be found at symmys.com.

Public experience with risk communication differs greatly from country to country in Europe and there has been little opportunity for the transfer of experience and learning between countries. This is especially true for the many new European States, including the countries in transition from centralised to market economies. This book presents case studies on risk communication. One of its unifying concepts is the role of risk communication in the risk management process. Technical and philosophical introductions to risk communication and risk management and research in risk communication are given. The case studies themselves occupy the central portion of the book, each one covering a particular hazard, risk or situation seen from a particular point of view. The issue of the special circumstances for environmental and health risk communication in central and eastern Europe is also addressed through a separate presentation and discussion of an appropriate case study. A different approach to risk communication is taken by examining how it forms part of the risk management process at the local level. Research into risk perception, a field that forms an important foundation for many aspects of risk communication, is summarised and practical guidelines for risk communication are reviewed. These include discussions on how to carry out public information programmes and methods for increasing public involvement in risk management decisions.

Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective."

Dr. Williams contends that over the last 20 years a change has occurred in organizations that has created a syndrome of dysfunctions that are neither good for businesses nor for the people who work in them. Williams sees businesses as living entities, and argues that how they act and react will have an impact on their employees, and often a devastating impact. In much the same way as businesses make decisions, people make choices, and seldom are these decisions and choices congruent. Unless disparate self-interests and goals can be reconciled--unless a partnership can be restored between people and their organizations--not only will employees be damaged, but the success of their organization, upon which they depend for their livelihoods, will be jeopardized. How this dangerous situation came about, what it means, and how it can be remedied is the subjet of Dr. Williams' book. Research-based and always in touch with the realities of commerce, Dr. Williams will make business people aware that organizations and their people must become reunited, and then show them how it can be done.

Dr. Williams makes clear he is not simply speculating or theorizing. His goal is to make management aware of the dysfunctions that are damaging their organizations, and how these are reflected in the behaviors of their employees. When he calls for a focus on humanity, spirit, and context, Dr. Williams is actually offering a workable, real-world strategy to breathe new life into organizations of all kinds--a strategy he calls The Trinity Process. Its purpose: to help management restore the essential partnership between organizational entities and the people who make them succeed or fail. In Part One he shows what it means to be part of any organization and, with anecdotes and cases from his own research, helps readers grasp the dynamics of their own organizations. In Part Two he proposes new or reframed paradigms that provide an underpinning for the reestablishment of equality between organizations and their employees. Then, in Part Three he presents The Trinity Process itself. The result is a remarkably lucid, readable, engrossing exploration of organizational life today, important reading for decision makers in all types of organizations, public as well as private, and for academics concerned with how organizations behave.

Residential Exposure Assessment: A Source Book is the result of a multiyear effort known as the Residential Exposure Assessment Project (REAP) which was initiated by the Society for Risk Analysis and the International Society of Exposure Analysis. This textbook is the primary product of the REAP and it contains contributions from over 30 professionals from a variety of disciplines such as chemistry, biology, physics, engi neering, industrial hygiene, toxicology, pharmacology, and environmental law, reflecting the diverse knowledge and resources necessary to assess and manage potential exposures occurring in and around the home. Expert working groups were organized for each of the 13 chapters to address such issues as U. S. legislation relevant to products used in and around the residence, methods for measuring and modeling exposures across multiple pathways and routes, and distributional data available for key residential exposure factors. This volume is a compendium of information about predictive methods and tools, monitoring methods, data sources, and key variables that characterize exposures in the residential setting. It presents approaches for doing exposure assessments in and around all types of residences. The purpose of the Source Book is to provide a resource for use in educational programs and for "practitioners" of residential exposure assessment. Accordingly, this book is intended for risk assessors, exposure assessors, students, initi ates new to the concept of risk assessment, industrial hygienists assessing health hazards in the home, engineers, and monitoring specialists."

The customer problem in the public sector appears when too many processes are in place and staff volumes are too large to adapt to sudden change. As situations evolve and solutions are required, public managers are faced with an overload of information for decision-making, as normal day-to-day policy is overlooked to accommodate management by crisis. Generally, emergency situations call for effective steps to be taken, constrained by short time frames and a dispersed public workforce. Managing teams require structure in their response to an evolving crises, which is generally a difficult position to attain when information and resources are limited. Protocol and response plans are only activated in extreme crises, leaving a gap in response when overload has been reached but is not within the stipulated margins. Recognition at this stage is important if successful outcomes are to be achieved. This book proposes an 8-point model, which it labels the DALI Model, for responding to these situations, to simplify and synthesize decision-making processes.

The book takes the inventory control perspective to tackle empty container repositioning logistics problems in regional transportation systems by explicitly considering the features such as demand imbalance over space, dynamic operations over time, uncertainty in demand and transport, and container leasing phenomenon. The book has the following unique features. First, it provides a discussion of broad empty equipment logistics including empty freight vehicle redistribution, empty passenger vehicle redistribution, empty bike repositioning, empty container chassis repositioning, and empty container repositioning (ECR) problems. The similarity and unique characteristics of ECR compared to other empty equipment repositioning problems are explained. Second, we adopt the stochastic dynamic programming approach to tackle the ECR problems, which offers an algorithmic strategy to characterize the optimal policy and captures the sequential decision-making phenomenon in anticipation of uncertainties over time and space. Third, we are able to establish closed-form solutions and structural properties of the optimal ECR policies in relatively simple transportation systems. Such properties can then be utilized to construct threshold-type ECR policies for more complicated transportation systems. In fact, the threshold-type ECR policies resemble the well-known (s, S) and (s, Q) policies in inventory control theory. These policies have the advantages of being decentralized, easy to understand, easy to operate, quick response to random events, and minimal on-line computation and communication. Fourth, several sophisticated optimization techniques such as approximate dynamic programming, simulation-based meta-heuristics, stochastic approximation, perturbation analysis, and ordinal optimization methods are introduced to solve the complex stochastic optimization problems. The book will be of interest to researchers and professionals in logistics, transport, supply chain, and operations research.

Why do organisations decline, and what happens when they do? Strategy and Managed Decline: London Transport 1948-87 is a historical case study looking at how London Transport, a world beater in 1948, declined from being an international exemplar to dilapidation in 30 years. Strategy and Managed Decline considers the inheritance left by the founders of London Transport and subjects their legacy to a strategic and political audit. In three sections, the book examines archival data from the Transport for London (TfL) Archive covering the car revolution, strategic political clashes and the performance of the chairmen to challenge existing theory and extant histories. It offers hypotheses situated in management, leadership, politics and strategy which explain the decades of deterioration followed by a dramatic revival in the late 1980s. Examining the turbulent politics of the long conflict between London Transport, municipal and national government in detail, Strategy and Managed Decline: London Transport 1948-87 offers novel interpretations of events by objectively analysing the strategic stories that politics created about London's transport. It concludes by asking whether a shift in managerial strategy away from maximising utility and towards cost minimisation caused, or was just coincident with, resurgence and explores what lessons there are for TfL today.

The standard rationality hypothesis is that behaviour can be represented as the maximization of a suitably restricted utility function. This hypothesis lies at the heart of a large body of recent work in economics, of course, but also in political science, ethics, and other major branches of the social sciences. Though this hypothesis of utility maximization deserves our continued respect, finding further refinements and developing new critiques remain areas of active research. In fact, many fundamental conceptual problems remain unsettled. Where others have been resolved, their resolutions may be too recent to have achieved widespread understanding among social scientists. Last but not least, a growing number of papers attempt to challenge the rationality hypothesis head on, at least in its more orthodox formulation. The main purpose of this Handbook is to make more widely available some recent developments in the area. Yet we are well aware that the final chapter of a handbook like this can never be written as long as the area of research remains active, as is certainly the case with utility theory. The editors originally selected a list of topics that seemed ripe enough at the time that the book was planned. Then they invited contributions from researchers whose work had come to their attention. So the list of topics and contributors is largely the editors' responsibility, although some potential con tributors did decline our invitation. Each chapter has also been refereed, and often significantly revised in the light of the referees' remarks."

This book discusses machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) for agricultural economics. It is written with a view towards bringing the benefits of advanced analytics and prognostics capabilities to small scale farmers worldwide. This volume provides data science and software engineering teams with the skills and tools to fully utilize economic models to develop the software capabilities necessary for creating lifesaving applications. The book introduces essential agricultural economic concepts from the perspective of full-scale software development with the emphasis on creating niche blue ocean products. Chapters detail several agricultural economic and AI reference architectures with a focus on data integration, algorithm development, regression, prognostics model development and mathematical optimization. Upgrading traditional AI software development paradigms to function in dynamic agricultural and economic markets, this volume will be of great use to researchers and students in agricultural economics, data science, engineering, and machine learning as well as engineers and industry professionals in the public and private sectors.

Demography as a discipline is now at the point where its relevance to business decision making is indisputable--and top business management knows this. People who lack an understanding of state-of-the-art demographic techniques, and who cannot adapt to new ways of thinking prompted by demography and demographers, will find themselves significantly disadvantaged in today's competitive business environment. Pol and Thomas thus provide practitioners and students alike with a concise but intensive introduction to the concepts and methods of business demography. They chronicle current demographic trends and explain their meaning for business. With numerous examples drawn from business and industry, they make clear that business demography is truly a decision-making science.

Pol and Thomas introduce basic concepts, then present an overview of recent and future demographic trends. They elaborate on the application of current demographic methods to planning and marketing in the contemporary business environment, and illustrate their points with numerous charts, maps, and sidebars. Pol and Thomas provide many examples of real world situations in which demographic methods, data, perspective, and theory are actively applied. With sections on sources of health care data, the calculation of demographic rates, the demographic resources available and up-to-date statistics on current demographic trends, their book becomes not only a unique resource for professionals, but also a useful text and reference for their colleagues in the academic community.

Life after Boris is a quick-to-read fable that should encourage any partner - or indeed anyone aspiring to partnership - in a professional services firm, to make sure that the succession planning issue is addressed in their firm. It seeks to demonstrate that with good planning, collaboration and proactive discussion, options can be found that will be acceptable to all. Without such an approach, the consequences could be serious. Succession planning is not inherently difficult or intellectually complex. It does, however, strike many raw nerves, both with those who are currently at the top of their firms and are contemplating retirement (or not), and also with those in the early stages of their careers who are anxious to know what the future holds for them in their current firm. The frustration, of course, is that many stakeholders in the succession planning process (of which there are far more than one might originally envisage) rush into decisions because of the apparent lack of a succession plan, thereby simply exacerbating the problem for all the other stakeholders. It is therefore critical that all firms, and the stakeholders within those firms, address the succession planning question before it becomes an issue. Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted is simply not an option. Initiating the succession planning process need not necessarily come from the current leaders. Indeed, their failure to do so is often at the root of the problem. The bright leaders of tomorrow have much at stake and although a great deal of tact and sensitivity will be needed, it is often these future leaders of a firm who are best positioned to bring about change. In the author's experience over the last 12 years of working with professional services firms around the world, one of the most frequently recurring catalysts for discussion has been succession management. Firms that got it right developed and prospered. Those that didn't struggled and often ended up having to merge and ultimately disappear into oblivion.

Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.

This book presents a rich collection of studies on the analysis of sustainable development from a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) perspective, written by some of the most prominent authors in the field of MCDM/A. The book constitutes a unique international reference guide to the analysis, measurement, and management of sustainability in a multidimensional decision analysis context. Chiefly intended for academics and policymakers, it reflects some of the latest methodological advances in decision-making, which are illustrated in real-life applications to sustainability-related topics in both the private and public sector.

The theory of value structure concerns the meaning of "better than" and "good," as well as the way in which values serve as a basis for rational decision making. Drawing methodologically from economics and theories of decision making, the aim of serious axiology in metaethics is to do justice to problems that have puzzled philosophers of value for centuries. Can value comparisons be cyclic? Are all values comparable with each other and can decision makers just add up different aspects of an evaluation to determine the best course of action? A Theory of Value Structure: From Values to Decisions starts with a thorough introduction to the modeling of "better than" comparisons from a normative perspective. In the philosophical part of the book, Erich H. Rast argues that aspects of "better than" comparisons can differ qualitatively so much that one aspect may outrank another. Consequently, the classical weighted sum aggregation model fails. Values cannot always be summed up and comparisons may be fundamentally noncompensatory, an indeterminacy that explains problems like the apparent nontransitivity of "better than" and hard cases in decision making. Using a lexicographic method of value comparisons, Rast develops a multidimensional theory of "better than" and shows how and to which extent it can be combined with standard methods of decision making under uncertainty by using rank-dependent utility theory.

Semiorder is probably one of the most frequently ordered structures in science. It naturally appears in fields like psychometrics, economics, decision sciences, linguistics and archaeology. It explicitly takes into account the inevitable imprecisions of scientific instruments by allowing the replacement of precise numbers by intervals. The purpose of this book is to dissect this structure and to study its fundamental properties. The main subjects treated are the numerical representations of semiorders, the generalizations of the concept to valued relations, the aggregation of semiorders and their basic role in a general theoretical framework for multicriteria decision-aid methods. Audience: This volume is intended for students and researchers in the fields of decision analysis, management science, operations research, discrete mathematics, classification, social choice theory, and order theory, as well as for practitioners in the design of decision tools.