Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

Dithering. Decisions that turn out wrong. Decisions that people sabotage or don't know how to implement. If your company's experiencing these problems, it's not alone. Most organizations don't know how to make and execute good decisions. And they're paying a high price--as profitability and competitiveness erode. It doesn't have to be this way. In Decide and Deliver, the authors draw on Bain & Company's extensive research to present a five-step process for improving your firm's decision effectiveness: 1. Assess your decision effectiveness--and how your organization affects it. 2. Identify your critical decisions. 3. Set individual critical decisions up for success. 4. Ensure that your company enables and reinforces great decision making and execution. 5. Embed the changes in everyday practice. Master this process, and you see immediate results: people across your organization collaborate to make crucial decisions better and faster than your rivals. And they execute them flawlessly-fueling unprecedented financial performance. Filled with powerful hands-on tools and detailed examples from companies as varied as Ford Motor Company, British American Tobacco, Telstra, Lafarge, and ABB UK, Decide and Deliver helps you make decision management a potent competitive weapon in your company.

As the world's resources are running out, sustainability issues will drive large strategy shifts for many organizations in the near future. Businesses need to explore how profit and value can be generated from sustainable innovations in their commercial offerings. This is both an ethical and an essential strategy in a global economy still reliant on increasingly limited resources.
Sustainable Innovation Strategy is a thought-provoking and timely book which examines the links between sustainable development, innovation strategy and the business model. Through insightful case studies from mature and developing markets, the authors show how sustainability needs to be at the core of every organization's strategy and innovation. They reveal the three ways in which sustainable strategies can be incorporated into business models - eco-efficiency, circularity and functional economy.
Rigorous and practical, this book shows how other organizations have successfully made the transition from resource reliant to generating profit and value through sustainable models. From the innovative strides being taken in the electric car industry in Europe to the management of agricultural waste in Brazil for profit and clean energy, they show how sustainable business models can add value to an organization.

Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is concerned with the plausibility of reliability estimates obtained from statistical models. Statistical predictions are necessary because technology is always pushing into unexplored areas faster than devices can be made long-lived by design. Flawed reliability methodologies can produce disastrous results, an outstanding example of which is the catastrophic failure of the manned space shuttle CHALLENGER in January 1986. This issue is not whether, but which, statistical models should be used. The issue is not making reliability estimates, but is instead their credibility. The credibility questions explored in the context of practical applications include: What does the confidence level associated with the use of statistical model mean? Is the numerical result associated with a high confidence level beyond dispute? When is it appropriate to use the exponential (constant hazard rate) model? Does this model always provide the most conservative reliability estimate? Are the results of traditional random' failure hazard rate calculations tenable? Are there persuasive alternatives? What model should be used to describe the useful life of a device when wearout is absent? When Weibull and lognormal failure plots containing a large number of failure times appear similar, how should the correct wearout model be selected? Is it important to distinguish between a conservative upper bound on a probability of failure and a realistic estimate of the same probability? Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is for those who are obliged to make reliability calculations with a paucity of somewhat corrupt data, by using inexactmodels, and by making physical assumptions which are impractical to verify. Illustrative examples deal with a variety of electronic devices, ICs and lasers.

How are multiculturalism, inequality and belonging understood in the day-to-day thinking and practices of local government? Examining original empirical data, this book explores how local government officers and politicians negotiate 'difficult subjects' linked with community cohesion policy: diversity, inequality, discrimination, extremism, migration, religion, class, power and change. The book argues that such work necessitates 'uncomfortable positions' when managing ethical, professional and political commitments. Based on first-hand experience of working in urban local government and extensive ethnographic, interview and documentary research, the book applies governmentality perspectives in a new way to consider how people working within government are subject to regimes of governmentality themselves, and demonstrates how power operates through emotions. Its exploration of how 'sociological imaginations' are applied beyond academia will be valuable to those arguing for the future of public services and building connections between the university and wider society, including scholars and students in sociology, social policy, social geography, urban studies and politics, and policy practitioners in local and central government. Winner of the BSA Philip Abrams Memorial Prize 2014

Understanding human behavior and decision-making processes is a significant challenge within many fields of research. This doctoral thesis shows how human activities are characterized by multiple interconnected contexts and demonstrates the advantages of using a multi-layered model to examine interactions between social, economic and cultural factors. The model presented here offers large benefits for various target groups as it can be applied to a wide range of research fields. Consequently, this analysis supports an interdisciplinary approach to economics.

The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing and strategic decision making. It is the hope and direction of this research annual to become an applications and practitioner oriented publication. Topics will include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgementally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

The challenges faced by 21st-century businesses, organizations and governments are characterized as being fundamentally different in nature, scope and levels of impact from those of the past. As problems become increasingly complex and wicked, conventional reductive approaches and data-based solutions are limited. The authors argue that practical wisdom is required. This book provides an integral and practical model for incorporating wisdom into management decision making. Based on a cross-disciplinary conceptualization of practical wisdom, the authors distinguish systematically between data, information, knowledge, and wisdom-based decision making. While they suggest that data, analytics, information and knowledge can assist decision-makers to better deal with complex and wicked problems, they argue that data-based systems cannot replace optimized human decision-making capabilities. These capabilities, the authors explain, include a range of qualities and characteristics inherent in philosophical, psychological and organizational conceptions of practical wisdom. Accordingly, in this book, the authors introduce a model that identifies the specific qualities and processes involved in making wise decisions, especially in management. The model is based on the empirical fi ndings of the authors' studies in the areas of wisdom and management. This book is a practical resource for professionals, practitioners, and consultants in both the private and public sectors. The theoretical discussions, critical arguments, and practical guidelines provided in the book will be extremely valuable to students at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels, as well as upper-level postdoctoral researchers looking at business management strategies.

This book presents best practices involving applications of decision sciences, business tactics and behavioral sciences for COVID-19. Addressing concrete problems in these vital fields, it focuses on theoretical and methodological investigations of managerial decisions that drive production and service enterprises' productivity and success. Moreover, it presents optimization techniques and tools that can also be adopted for other applications in various research areas after a thorough analysis of the specific problem. The book is intended for researchers and practitioners seeking optimum solutions to real-life problems in various application areas concerning COVID-19, helping them make scientifically founded decisions.

This book presents a collection of essays written by leading researchers to honor Roman Slowinski's major scholarly interests and contributions. He is well-known for conducting extensive research on methodologies and techniques for intelligent decision support, where he combines operational research and artificial intelligence. The book reconstructs his main contributions, presents cutting-edge research and provides an outlook on the most promising and advanced domains of computer science and multiple criteria decision aiding. The respective chapters cover a wide range of related research areas, including decision sciences, ordinal data mining, preference learning and multiple criteria decision aiding, modeling of uncertainty and imprecision in decision problems, rough set theory, fuzzy set theory, multi-objective optimization, project scheduling and decision support applications. As such, the book will appeal to researchers and scholars in related fields.

Can there be reliable information that is also relevant to decision making? Information for Efficient Decision Making: Big Data, Blockchain and Relevance focuses on the consolidation of information to facilitate making decisions in firms, in order to make their operations efficient to reduce their costs and consequently, increase their profitability. The advent of blockchain has generated great interest as an alternative to centralized organizations, where the data is gathered through a centralized ledger keeping of activities of the firm. The decentralized ledger keeping is one of the main features of blockchain that has given rise to many issues of technology, development, implementation, privacy, acceptance, evaluation and so on. Blockchain concept is a follow-up to big data environment facilitated by enormous progress in computer hardware, storage capacities and technological prowess. This has resulted in the rapid acquiring of data not considered possible earlier. With shrewd modeling analytics and algorithms, the applications have grown to significant levels. This handbook discusses the progress in data collection, pros and cons of collecting information on decentralized publicly available ledgers and several applications.

An innovative, new approach to risk assessment and management that will help you uncover countless opportunities for your company

If a business wants to be sustainable in the twenty-first century, it should focus on the continuous improvements and potential opportunities that risk management offers. Written by risk management experts, this book will provide you with the necessary tools and guidance for the successful management of business risk so you can improve your company’s triple bottom line–– the social, environmental, and financial accountability of your business. The authors introduce the RISQUE method, which was specifically developed to address a diverse range of events and issues. It offers a multifaceted approach, using a rational process, which will help you make informed, defensible risk management decisions. You’ll gain a better understanding of the methodology, assumptions, advantages, and disadvantages of this approach. You’ll also see how the method can be applied to specific areas within your business to reduce risk and increase opportunities. And you’ll learn the necessary skills to implement a risk management process that will demonstrate commitment to triple bottom line management.

To enhance the material presented, numerous case studies are included that will help you understand how to:

• Select and justify the best option for a project
• Determine how much additional liability you’ll gain through an acquisition
• Account for nonquantifiable events
• Understand how much your company needs to set aside for future liabilities
• Discover which asset management strategy gives you the best return
• Use loss of life as a measure of risk to public safety
• Calculate and report contingent liability on your balance sheet
• Develop an insurance strategy based on your profile of risk

This book combines two distinctive topics: data science/image analysis and materials science. The purpose of this book is to show what type of nano material problems can be better solved by which set of data science methods. The majority of material science research is thus far carried out by domain-specific experts in material engineering, chemistry/chemical engineering, and mechanical & aerospace engineering. The book could benefit materials scientists and manufacturing engineers who were not exposed to systematic data science training while in schools, or data scientists in computer science or statistics disciplines who want to work on material image problems or contribute to materials discovery and optimization. This book provides in-depth discussions of how data science and operations research methods can help and improve nano image analysis, automating the otherwise manual and time-consuming operations for material engineering and enhancing decision making for nano material exploration. A broad set of data science methods are covered, including the representations of images, shape analysis, image pattern analysis, and analysis of streaming images, change points detection, graphical methods, and real-time dynamic modeling and object tracking. The data science methods are described in the context of nano image applications, with specific material science case studies.

This best selling management book is a true classic. If you want to be a model manager, keep this new, even better 3rd edition close at hand. Key Management Models has the winning combination of brevity and clarity, giving you short, practical overviews of the top classic and cutting edge management models in an easy-to-use, ready reference format. Whether you want to remind yourself about models you've already come across, or want to find new ones, you'll find yourself referring back to it again and again. It's the essential guide to all the management models you'll ever need to know about. Includes the classic and essential management models from the previous 2 editions. Thoroughly updated to include cutting edge new models. Two-colour illustrations and case studies throughout.

'The book is a much needed foundation into current scholarship on the practice and logic of team formation and function in entrepreneurial situations. The book offers both in-depth and comprehensive views of theory on entrepreneurial teams, as well as examples of current research. I am particularly impressed with the insights offered through a disciplined focus on the contextual aspects of entrepreneurial teams.' - William B. Gartner, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark and California Lutheran University, US In recent years there has been an increasing body of evidence suggesting that firms founded by entrepreneurial teams are more likely to achieve fast growth than firms founded by lone actors. This Research HandbookM explores the position of entrepreneurial teams within existing literature and challenges current perspectives through a diverse range of research lenses. Research Handbook on Entrepreneurial Teams expands the boundaries of entrepreneurship literature by examining essential issues such as formation, structuring, deep-level diversity and emergent states. The chapters also consider different contexts of application and investigate under-researched topics such as entrepreneurial teams within indigenous communities, ethnically diverse groups and women entrepreneurs. This comprehensive Research Handbook offers a wide range of research methodologies, perspectives and insights that will appeal to scholars, practitioners and entrepreneurs alike. Contributors include: H.E. Aldrich, C. Ben-Hafaiedh, M. Brettel, G. Campopiano, L. Cassia, L.M. Cloutier, T.M. Cooney, S. Cueille, J.P. De Borst, A. Discua Cruz, F. Dufays, E. Hadjielias, M. Henare, C. Howorth, B. Huybrechts, M.K. Kihiko, P.H. Kim, M.W. Kinoti, J.-F. Lalonde, J. Levie, B. Lythberg, R. Mauer, T. Minola, A. Nicholson, G. Recasens, S. Schoss, D. Vredenburgh, C. Woods, W. Zhou

Connected Leadership has been officially shortlisted in the 'Management Futures' category for the 2017 Management Book of the Year prize which has just been announced by the Chartered Management Institute (CMI) and the British Library. Connected Leadership provides a clear, practical guide for leaders of organisations who wish to create a more connected, agile and customer-oriented organisation in a digitally connected, customer-driven 21st century business environment. It lays out the key factors of the connected organisation and the leadership behaviours that will allow these factors to become embedded and sustainable. It provides a range of case examples to demonstrate what this looks like in practice, complemented by a series of tools and techniques that leaders can use to diagnose their organisation's current position and plot a successful course to achieve these more connected ways of working. It is, at heart, a real-world guide to changing your leadership style and approach to align an organisation's culture and values with those needed in a world where the prevailing models of command and control are so obviously failing. Connected Leadership will show you how to: * Create a more agile organisation & respond swiftly to changing markets & customer needs * Cope with increasing market complexity & uncertainty * Build trust, reputation & become a more authentic leader * Develop a 'connected leadership' approach

"The one, only, and by far the best book synthesizing psychology and investing. In addition to providing modern, scientific knowledge about psychology, this book provides a mirror into the mind and wide breadth of knowledge of one of the leading practitioners of brief and effectual cures. Will help to cure your trading and your life."
–Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Investments
Author, The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation

"How refreshing! A book that rises above the old NLP model of the 80’s and provides insights on how our relationship with the market is indeed a very personal one. Not only has Steenbarger provided some fantastic tools for the trader to transform his mindset, but he has contributed unique trading ideas as well. Brilliant!"
–Linda Raschke, President, LBRGroup, Inc.

"‘Investigate, before you invest’ was for many years the slogan of the New York Stock Exchange. I always thought a better one would be, ‘Investigate YOURSELF, before you invest.’ The Psychology of Trading should help you increase your annual investment rate of return. Mandatory reading for anyone intending to earn a livelihood through trading. "
–Yale Hirsch, The Hirsch Organization Inc., Editor, The Stock Trader’s Almanac

"This highly readable, highly educational, and highly entertaining book will teach you as much about yourself as about trading. It’s Oliver Sacks meets Mr. Market–extraordinary tales of ordinary professionals and individuals with investment disorders, and how they successfully overcame them. It is a must-read both for private investors who have been shell-shocked in the bear market and want to learn how to start again, as well as for pros who seek an extra edge from extra inner knowledge. Steenbarger’s personal voyage into the mind of the market is destined to become a classic."
–Jon Markman, Managing Editor, CNBC on MSN Money
Author, Online Investing and Swing Trading

"Dr. Steenbarger’s fascinating, highly readable blend of practical insights from his dual careers as a brilliant psychologist and trader will benefit every investor; knowing oneself is as important as knowing the market."
–Laurel Kenner, CNBC.com Columnist, Author, Practical Speculation

'A very practical, engaging guide to the essential tools which managers at all levels need to be effective themselves and to develop others. Highly recommended.' Stuart Chambers, former CEO of Pilkington plc Key Management Development Models gives you, at a glance, instant access to a full range of the best models available for developing your management skills and helping others to work and perform at their peak. For anyone seeking to develop their management skills it can be hard to know where to begin. Key Management Development Models explains the tools in detail - what they are and when and how to use them, with key practical tips. It's like having your very own management development coach on hand explaining all the tools that you will ever need to know. EXPERT GUIDANCE FOR YOUR MANAGEMENT CAREER

How are multiculturalism, inequality and belonging understood in the day-to-day thinking and practices of local government? Examining original empirical data, this book explores how local government officers and politicians negotiate 'difficult subjects' linked with community cohesion policy: diversity, inequality, discrimination, extremism, migration, religion, class, power and change. The book argues that such work necessitates 'uncomfortable positions' when managing ethical, professional and political commitments. Based on first-hand experience of working in urban local government and extensive ethnographic, interview and documentary research, the book applies governmentality perspectives in a new way to consider how people working within government are subject to regimes of governmentality themselves, and demonstrates how power operates through emotions. Its exploration of how 'sociological imaginations' are applied beyond academia will be valuable to those arguing for the future of public services and building connections between the university and wider society, including scholars and students in sociology, social policy, social geography, urban studies and politics, and policy practitioners in local and central government. Winner of the BSA Philip Abrams Memorial Prize 2014

This book provides an introduction to investment appraisal and presents a range of methods and models, some of which are not widely known, or at least not well covered by other textbooks. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Getting these decisions right is crucial but, due to a complex and dynamic business environment, this remains a challenging management task. Effective appraisal methods are valuable tools in supporting investment decision-making. As organisations continue to seek a competitive edge, it is increasingly important that management accountants and strategic decision-makers have a sound knowledge of these tools.

Does Your Company Culture Fit Your Business Strategy? A high-performing company culture can translate into happy employees, a productive and engaging work environment, and fluid communications. To help you define and create a culture that works in today's competitive world, Entrepreneur's community of small business owners and entrepreneurs share their battle-tested strategies, hard-won advice, and secrets behind what works and what doesn't. Entrepreneur Voices on Company Culture will help you to: Create a culture that fits your brand and leadership style Hire the right team that will support your mission Increase your team's productivity without causing burnout Retain your best employees with creative and effective appreciation Avoid the tragic mistakes made by companies that have come before you Plus, learn how WP Engine's CEO realized cultures can be created by accident, why Raising Cane's makes every employee spend time as a fry cook, and how the founder of Blue Fish stayed afloat after everyone quit on the same day.

"In One Face: Shed the Mask, Own Your Values, and Lead Wisely," Sarah K. McDugal shares her journey of personal discovery and leadership growth while showcasing the experiences of other wildly successful entrepreneurs and influencers who are committed to leading (and living) with one face.

Risk has two sides: underestimating it harms the investor, while overestimating it prevents the implementation of bold business projects. This book explains, from the point of view of the practitioner, the analysis of investment risk - a proper account of adequate risk management strategies - and offers an objective and readable account of the most common investment risk management procedures. It will not be highly mathematical, although mathematical formulae and technical graphs will be used where necessary, and will not rely on excessive technical jargon.

The author also covers guidelines of regulatory institutions that protect the market and the investor: Bank of International Settlements, US SEC and UK FSA.