One of the most important tasks faced by decision-makers in business and government is that of selection. Selection problems are challenging in that they require the balancing of multiple, often conflicting, criteria. In recent years, a number of interesting decision aids have become available to assist in such decisions.
The aim of this book is to provide a comparative survey of many of the decision aids currently available. The first chapters present general ideas which underpin the methodologies used to design these aids. Subsequent chapters then focus on specific decision aids and demonstrate some of the software which implement these ideas. A final chapter provides a comparative analysis of their strengths and weaknesses.

Multiple criteria decision-making research has developed rapidly and has become a main area of research for dealing with complex decision problems which require the consideration of multiple objectives or criteria. Over the past twenty years, numerous multiple criterion decision methods have been developed which are able to solve such problems. However, the selection of an appropriate method to solve a particular decision problem is today's problem for a decision support researcher and decision-maker. Intelligent Strategies for Meta Multiple Criteria Decision-Making deals centrally with the problem of the numerous MCDM methods that can be applied to a decision problem. The book refers to this as a meta decision problem', and it is this problem that the book analyzes. The author provides two strategies to help the decision-makers select and design an appropriate approach to a complex decision problem. Either of these strategies can be designed into a decision support system itself. One strategy is to use machine learning to design an MCDM method. This is accomplished by applying intelligent techniques, namely neural networks as a structure for approximating functions and evolutionary algorithms as universal learning methods. The other strategy is based on solving the meta decision problem interactively by selecting or designing a method suitable to the specific problem, for example, the constructing of a method from building blocks. This strategy leads to a concept of MCDM networks. Examples of this approach for a decision support system explain the possibilities of applying the elaborated techniques and their mutual interplay. The techniques outlined in the book can be used by researchers, students, and industry practitioners to better model and select appropriate methods for solving complex, multi-objective decision problems.

This book mainly introduces the latest development of generalized intuitionistic multiplicative fuzzy calculus and its application. The book pursues three major objectives: (1) to introduce the calculus models with concrete mathematical expressions for generalized intuitionistic multiplicative fuzzy information; (2) to introduce new information fusion methods based on the definite integral models; and (3) to clarify the involved approaches bymilitary case. The book is especially valuable for readers to understand how the theoretical framework of generalized intuitionistic multiplicative fuzzy calculus is constructed, not only discrete or continuous but also correlative (generalized) intuitionistic (multiplicative) fuzzy information is aggregated based on the definite integral models and the theory with a military practice is integrated, which would deepen the understanding and give researchers more inspiration in practical decision analysis under uncertainties.

Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making is the result of an international workshop on societal risk organized by the Dutch Ministry for Transport, Public Works and Water Management with additional financial support from the Directorate for Transportation (DG VII) of the European Union. Managing risks, whether there is a strong man-made or natural component, basically means assessing alternative options under uncertainty. The possibility of multiple fatalities is one of the factors that can vary between options. This volume is concerned with one particular type of risk - the risk of death of a number of people in one accident - and with one particular tool - probabilistic risk analysis - as they are developing in various domains of society nowadays. Generally, this risk is labelled societal risk. This book shows how such comparisons are shaped at present in various hazard domains, such as: flood protection location and physical planning of industry transportation of chemicals, and prevention of aircraft accidents. It examines how to represent aggregate risks from major hazards in ways that can be handled by policy-makers. The purpose of the book is to increase the awareness of societal risk, disseminate available knowledge of existing approaches, and exchange information on applications from various domains. Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making should be of interest to all those professionally concerned with defining the optimal separation between hazardous activities and equally desirable developments nearby.

1 AUK ISMAIL-ZADEH ,2, TOM BEER3 1 International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoye shosse 79-2, Moscow 113556, Russia; e-mail: [email protected] 2 Geophysikalisches Institut, Universittit Karlsruhe, Hertzstr. 16, Karlsruhe 76187, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] 3 CSIRO Environmental Risk Network, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. 3195 Australia; e-mail: [email protected] The world faces major threats to the sustainability of our planet. These threats are accompanied by the immediate dangers of natural and man-made disasters. Our vulnerability to them is greatly magnified with each passing year undermining our ability to maintain a sustainable and productive world into the 21st Century and beyond. Both history and common sense teach us that science has a tremendous potential to find ways to cope with these threats. 1 The EUROSCIENCE working group "Science and Urgent Problems of Society" 2 and the IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability were initiators of the EUROSCIENCE - IUGG Advanced Research Workshop "Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society" sponsored by the NATO Science Program. The Workshop was held on 15-16 June 2002 in Budapest, Hungary. More than 40 participants from 17 countries took part in the Workshop. Talks and discussions addressed mainly the question of how science can help in reduction of risk and sustainable development of society.

There is today a wide range of pubLications avaiLabLe on the theory of reLiabiLity and the technique of ProbabiListic Safety AnaLysis (PSA). To pLace this work properLy in this context, we must recaLL a basic concept underLying both theory and technique, that of redundancy. ReLiabiLity is something which can be designed into a system, by the introduction of redundancy at appropriate points. John Von Neumann's historic paper of 1952 'ProbabiListic Logics and the Synthesis of ReLiabLe Organisms from UnreLiabLe Components" has served as inspiration for aLL subsequent work on systems reLiabiLity. This paper sings the praises of redundancy as a means of designing reLiabiLity into systems, or, to use Von Neumann's words, of minimising error. Redundancy, then, is a fundamentaL characteristic which a designer seeks to buiLd in by using appropriate structuraL characteristics of the 'modeL" or representation which he uses for his work. But any modeL is estabLished through a process of de Limination and decomposition. FirstLy, a "Universe of Discourse" is delineated; its component eLements are then separated out; and moreover in a probabiListic framework for each eLement each possibLe state is defined and assigned an appropriate possibiLity measure caLLed probability.

How did Bill Clinton get his party to take him seriously again after the sex scandal story broke? Who was the manager behind Edmund Hillary's ascent of Mount Everest? Why could taking a nap after lunch be your route to a more productive day? This engaging and entertaining book takes a fresh, honest approach and explores what it's really like to be a manager. It addresses the kinds of issues managers face on a daily basis, from prioritising their time and balancing a team, to recruiting new staff and managing the numbers. Written by Philip Delves Broughton, FT journalist and bestselling author of What They Teach You at Harvard Business School, this book is jam packed with titillating case studies and anecdotes from the very best and worst managers, including everyone from Bill Clinton and Mark Zuckerberg to Alex Ferguson and Roger Federer. "for most of us, our days are more like splat-the-rat, flailing at problems as they emerge, hoping that one good wallop does the trick, but fearing that nothing is ever well and truly solved" Management Matters, Philip Delves-Broughton

The purpose of Evaluation and Decision Models: A Critical Perspective is to provide a critical thinking framework for all individuals utilizing decision and evaluation models, whether it be for research or applications. It is axiomatic that all evaluation and decision models suffer some limitations. There are situations where a decision model will not perform to expectations. This book argues that there is no best decision or evaluation model, but that decision-makers must understand the principles of formal evaluation and decision models and apply them critically. Hence, the book seeks to deepen our understanding of evaluation and decision models and encourage users of these models to think more analytically about them. The authors work in six different European universities. Their backgrounds are varied: mathematics, economics, engineering, law, and geology, and they teach in engineering, business, mathematics, computer science, and psychology in their universities. As a group, the authors have particular expertise in a variety of decision models that include preference modelling, fuzzy logic, aggregation techniques, social choice theory, artificial intelligence, problem structuring, measurement theory, operations research, and multiple criteria decision support. In addition to their decision analysis research, all the authors have been involved in a variety of high-impact applications which include software evaluation, location of a nuclear repository, the rehabilitation of a sewer network, and the location of high-voltage lines. It is this variety within the authorship that unifies this book into a systematic examination of how best formal decision models can be used. The monographis an excellent tool for researchers of decision analysis and decision-makers.

Discover how to unleash the full potential of your meetings Inefficient meetings plague even the most well-run organizations. In 50 Activities to Kickstart Your Meetings, productivity and games expert Sivasailam Thiagarajan explains how to use fifty tried-and-true methods to get the most out of every meeting. This book teaches the strategy of employing games, activities, and simulations to facilitate extraordinary meeting productivity and creativity. It teaches meeting planners and organizers how to use games and simulations to enhance all types of meetings: Understand organizational opportunities and problems Generate alternative ideas Transform ideas into decisions Translate decisions into actions Written for managers and executives at all levels of governmental, non-profit, and for-profit organizations, 50 Activities to Kickstart Your Meetings transforms traditional meetings into engines of creativity and growth. Thiagarajan uses the extensive experience he has gained in consulting for companies like Google and JP Morgan to teach managers of all stripes how to supercharge their next meeting.

This book considers the problem of determining how many barrels of crude oil an oil-producing and exporting country should produce annually for export along with several other important problems that decision-makers in the crude oil industry face and discusses procedures for finding optimum solutions for them. It considers the important Objective Functions they need in making these critical decisions, and discusses procedures to find the best solutions. Outputs from the treatment units, in an oil refinery are only semi-finished products; these are blended into finished products like gasoline, diesel oil, etc., meeting various specifications that the marketplace demands. The book discusses models for solving these problems optimally with examples.

Future Risks and Risk Management provides a broad perspective on risk, including basic philosophical issues concerned with values, psychological issues, such as the perception of risk, the factors that generate risks in current and future technological and social systems, including both technical and organizational factors. No other volume adopts this broad perspective. Future Risks and Risk Management will be useful in a variety of contexts, both for teaching and as a source book for the risk professional needing to be informed of the broader issues in the field.

Procrastination is a business's worst enemy, but it is most damaging when if affects the ability to lead...
Too many decisions are taken too slowly or not at all, because of the dithering behavior of our leaders, often leading to failure of the project, or worse, the organization. See how procrastination has led to major contemporary leadership failures and learn how to recognize and resolve the problem in yourself and others.

Many firms are now developing policies for outsourcing IT and other basic functions, this book analyzes this issue from the perspective of both the outsourcer and the insourcer. Dimitris N. Chorafas describes management needs and shows how technology can be used to meet these needs. The book also highlights the benefits and risks that companies face when they attempt to differentiate themselves through new technology. The book is based on an extensive research project in the US, UK, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Sweden.

This book deals with complex problems in the fields of logistics and supply chain management and discusses advanced methods, especially from the field of computational intelligence (CI), for solving them. The first two chapters provide general introductions to logistics and supply chain management on the one hand, and to computational intelligence on the other hand. The subsequent chapters cover specific fields in logistics and supply chain management, work out the most relevant problems found in those fields, and discuss approaches for solving them. Chapter 3 discusses problems in the field of production and inventory management. Chapter 4 considers planning activities on a finer level of granularity which is usually denoted as scheduling. In chapter 5 problems in transportation planning such as different types of vehicle routing problems are considered. While chapters 3 to 5 rather discuss planning problems which appear on an operative level, chapter 6 discusses the strategic problem of designing a supply chain or network. The final chapter provides an overview of academic and commercial software and information systems for the discussed applications. There appears to be a gap between general textbooks on logistics and supply chain management and more specialized literature dealing with methods for computational intelligence, operations research, etc., for solving the complex operational problems in these fields. For readers, it is often difficult to proceed from introductory texts on logistics and supply chain management to the sophisticated literature which deals with the usage of advanced methods. This book fills this gap by providing state-of-the-art descriptions of the corresponding problems and suitable methods for solving them.

The author outlines the reasons why management risk must be examined within the perspective of each company's business challenges. He suggests there is a synergy between shareholder value and business ethics. He also underlines the importance of honesty, the risks associated with short-sighted management and over-centralization, the benefits of innovative strategies and senior management's accountability for reliable financial reporting. The text is based on an extensive research project done by the author between 2000 and 2002 in the US, the UK, France, Italy and Switzerland.

Whether you need to understand other people's calculations to make confident business decisions, or formulate investment choices based on your own numbers, this book will give you the tools you need.

" "

Banks and financial institutions, businesses and politicians often spin their statistics as they know they can rely on customers or constituents not to understand or check maths and formulas.

This book introduces you to the basic tools of maths, statistics and business calculations so that that you can understand the numbers, work out your own calculations and make better investing, saving and business decisions.

If you've ever felt ignored as a customer, humiliated by a teammate, drained by workplace politics, or painfully isolated in a big company, then you've experienced the business effects of emotional disconnection.

In today's knowledge-driven and service centered economy, emotional excellence isn't idealism. It is a practical necessity for growth and retaining superior talent. The Industrial Revolution is over, and the Emotional Revolution has now begun.

Recognizing that emotion is part of the fabric of human biology, the hundred billion neurons in every brain can be emotionally engaged to:

Evoke intense customer passion to boost sales

Eliminate the financial self-destruction of infighting

Excite employees to care for each other to ensure effectiveness

Written for anyone from the small business employee to the corporate CEO, this step-by step guidebook contains dozens of practical checklists and examples to immediately create connection with customers and colleagues. If you get the emotions right, you get the business right.

Dr Harryson develops the principle of 'know-who' - first propounded and practised by Japanese companies but now increasingly championed by multinationals. Case studies are used from companies such as Kodak, Ericsson, IBM and Philips to highlight the networking patterns deployed by these companies and to ultimately confirm or deny the relevance of 'know-who' management. The book explains why, in a world where knowledge and intellectual value is widely acknowledged as crucial, companies can achieve both innovativeness and productivity through 'know-who'. By enhancing our understanding of 'know-who' based management of knowledge and innovation, the author suggests new approaches to dealing with the knowledge economy and to solving the paradoxical organizational needs of creative invention and rapid innovation. This approach is based on new networking patterns and new ways of using the results of extra-corporate networking such as: * gathering global market intelligence in cooperation with R&D staff * internal networks promoting the diffusion of external and internal knowledge * aligning R&D staff with marketing and production by internal 'know-who' mechanisms Written by a leading management consultant, the theories discussed will be essential reading for business managers, international scholars and researchers of R&D, innovation and the knowledge economy.

Taking advantage of the many specialists visiting Spain prior to the INFORMS Meeting in Barcelona, hold from July 14th to July 17th 1997, we organized a work shop on Decision Analysis Applications at the Real Academia de Ciencias, Madrid, Spain, from J uly 11th to 12th 1997, under the sponsorship of de the Instituto Espaiia. This workshop had a precedent in the International Conference Decision Making: Towards the 21st Century also held at the Real Academia de Ciencias in 1993. The idea of organizing an event, this time devoted to applications of Decision Analysis, was due to Prof. Sixto Rfos, who some four years ago, .sponsored and encouraged by the Royal Academy of Sciences, was the creator of an Interdisciplinary Working Group on Decision Analysis -formed with researchers from within and outside this Academy- which has been active since then, organizing periodical meetings, and whose last project has tumed out into this Workshop. The workshop turned out to be an stimulating opportunity for communicating and discussing the enormous variety of applications of Decision Sciences. In this volume we have included most of the invited papers and a selection of refereed contributed papers. Due to the varied nature of the applications, we have grouped them into five groups ending, as way of an epilog, with a paper by Sarin which contains important insights and reftections on the nature of Decision Analysis in public and private sectors."

Cross-Cultural Risk Perception demonstrates the richness and wealth of theoretical insights and practical information that risk perception studies can offer to policy makers, risk experts, and interested parties. The book begins with an extended introduction summarizing the state of the art in risk perception research and core issues of cross-cultural comparisons. The main body of the book consists of four cross-cultural studies on public attitudes towards risk in different countries, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany, Sweden, Bulgaria, Romania, Japan, and China. The last chapter critically discusses the main findings from these studies and proposes a framework for understanding and investigating cross-cultural risk perception. Finally, implications for communication, regulation and management are outlined. The two editors, sociologist Ortwin Renn (Center of Technology Assessment, Germany) and psychologist Bernd Rohrmann (University of Melbourne, Australia), have been engaged in risk research for the last three decades. They both have written extensively on this subject and provided new empirical and theoretical insights into the growing body of international risk perception research.

Proceedings of the ISPRA-Course held at the Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Navales, Spain, September 22-26, 1986 in collaboration with Universidad Politecnica de Madrid

This volume offers comprehensive treatment of the latest developments in critical systems thinking and practice. The book features contributions by researchers at the prestigious Centre for Systems Studies at the University of Hull, England. The emphasis is on rigorous analysis of the wide range of approaches to problem solving reported in the research literature. This work will enhance the studies of researchers and students in the areas of systems problem solving, action research, management science, and operational research.

This book provides a broad coverage of the recent advances in robustness analysis in decision aiding, optimization, and analytics. It offers a comprehensive illustration of the challenges that robustness raises in different operations research and management science (OR/MS) contexts and the methodologies proposed from multiple perspectives. Aside from covering recent methodological developments, this volume also features applications of robust techniques in engineering and management, thus illustrating the robustness issues raised in real-world problems and their resolution within advances in OR/MS methodologies. Robustness analysis seeks to address issues by promoting solutions, which are acceptable under a wide set of hypotheses, assumptions and estimates. In OR/MS, robustness has been mostly viewed in the context of optimization under uncertainty. Several scholars, however, have emphasized the multiple facets of robustness analysis in a broader OR/MS perspective that goes beyond the traditional framework, seeking to cover the decision support nature of OR/MS methodologies as well. As new challenges emerge in a "big-data'" era, where the information volume, speed of flow, and complexity increase rapidly, and analytics play a fundamental role for strategic and operational decision-making at a global level, robustness issues such as the ones covered in this book become more relevant than ever for providing sound decision support through more powerful analytic tools.

Technology currently encourages the capture and storage of vast quantities of data and information and so thinkers, reasoners, and decision-makers have available large resources to support their tasks. At the same time, there is a need to engage with an enormous range of complex issues that require reasoning and decisions that are actionable to address them. Approaches for Community Decision Making and Collective Reasoning: Knowledge Technology Support acts to provide knowledge for each individual in a group with the broad structural wealth of reasoning. It also acts as an explicit structure that technological devices for supporting reasoning within a group can hook onto. If you are interested in how groups can structure their activities towards making better decisions or in developing technologies for the support of decision-making in groups, then this book is an excellent way to understand the state of the art and possible ways forward.