Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications.

Decision/option selection Manufacturing
Environmental assessment Pricing
Identification of business drivers Production sharing
Insurance Scheduling and optimization
Investing Security
Law

Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.

The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure.

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Author Biography:
Eileen Milner is a Principal Lecturer in Information Management at the University of North London

Rejecting the idea that there are ready-made solutions to the challenges of constructing and managing knowledge in organizations, this book addresses the changing nature of knowledge construction and what can be achieved through innovative research practices. Key issues and debates include: working knowledge into the 21st century; the highly contextualized nature of research at work; post-modern perspectives on knowledge construction and practice and performance implications; the impact of globalization; the influences of new technology; language; power; and culture and gender upon the "construction" of knowledge. Leading experts from North America, Japan, Britain and Australia illustrate both practice and theory issues. This text should be of interest to researchers, teachers and students in the field of human resource management, policy-makers and all those concerned with continuing professional development.

For the public sector, which is globally the largest employer of people and repository of information, managing information and knowledge is an extremely problematic area to address. The essence of both resources is that they are intangible, their impact and value cannot be measured through traditional accounting methods, yet they are also, paradoxically, where the greatest value and potential for improvement is located. In this book Eileen Milner introduces the reader to the concepts of information and knowledge and explores a variety of tools and techniques which may be usefully adopted in actively managing and developing these resources. Wherever possible real-life public sector case studies and examples are used to illustrate good practice, as well as some of the pitfalls of poor application. Down-to-earth and taking into account the critically important characteristics unique to public services, this will be an illuminating text both for managers and policy makers already working in the public sector and for those considering doing so.

This fascinating and controversial text makes sense of the complexities of research in the workplace and how 'working' knowledge is constructed. Featuring experts from Britain, Japan, North America and Australia, it is an outstanding contribution to the literature of Human Resource Management (HRM). It's interdisciplinary approach addresses key issues and debates such as:
* the influences of new technology, language, power, culture and gender upon the 'construction' of knowledge
* the impact of globalization
* working knowledge into the 21st century
* practice and performance implications.
It's outlook, geared towards the 21st century, makes it essential reading for researchers, teachers and students within HRM, policy-makers and all those concerned with professional development.

This book examines the need for information in support of decision-making in environmental health. It discusses indicators of environmental health, methods of data collection and the assessment of exposure to and the health impact of different environmental risk factors. It also discusses approaches to linkage analysis of grouped environmental and health data, including statistical and epidemiological issues and geographical infomation systems.
The book will be an invaluable source of information for researchers in public health, epidemiology and social science, as well as for environmental health data as part of local or national information systems.

Despite intense research on decision-making in action, we still know little about when decision-makers rely on deliberate vs. intuitive decision-making in decision situations under complexity and uncertainty. Building on default-interventionist dual-processing theory, this book studies decision-making modes (deliberate vs. intuitive) in complex task environments contingent on perceived complexity, experience, and decision style preference. We find that relatively inexperienced decision-makers respond to increases in subjective complexity with an increase in deliberation and tend to follow their decision style preference. Experienced decision-makers are less guided by their decision preference and respond to increases in subjective complexity only minimally. This book contributes to a developing stream of research linking decision-making with intra-personal and environmental properties and fosters our understanding of the conditions under which decision-makers rely on intuitive vs. deliberate decision modes. In doing so, we go one step further towards a comprehensive theory of decision-making in action.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Part of the series Exploring Effective Leadership Practices through Popular Culture, Urick examines management theories related to mentorship and learning, transformational and transactional leadership, ethical decision making, bases of power, mindfulness, multi-tasking, and more. As you learn to apply these theories, you can become at one with the Force to find balance in your leadership style. Each theory is viewed through the lens of various aspects of the Jedi approach to exerting influence. Through these examples, readers will become familiar and comfortable with academically supported leadership concepts to adjust their own behaviors, becoming more successful in the process. By examining leadership theories through the context of popular culture, the book encourages readers to think creatively about how they might adjust their own management approach. Readers will move from Padawan to Master quickly. May the Force be with you, Jedi Manager! The series aims to bring examples, theory and methodology of leadership to life by analysing academic concepts through popular culture examples that will appeal to a broad range of readers.

Written for those interested in the topic of "shared knowledge" in organizations, this edited volume brings together a variety of themes and perspectives that emerge when multidisciplinary scholars examine this important subject. The papers were presented at a conference designed to bring together behavioral scientists who were interested in the creation, conversation, distribution, and protection of knowledge in organizations.
The editors bring together a distinguished group of social psychologists who have made important contributions to social cognition and group processes. They cast a wide net in terms of the topics covered and challenged the authors to think about how their research applies to the management or mismanagement of knowledge in organizations. The volume is divided into three sections: knowledge systems, emotional-motivational systems, and communication and behavioral systems. A final conclusion chapter discusses and integrates the various contributions.

This is the first knowledge book in the Resources for the Knowledge-Based Economy Readers' series to link the two hot topics of knowledge and strategy. The book centers around the concept of treating organizational knowledge as a valuable strategy asset. Knowledge strategy is a natural extension of the historical development of business strategy in general. The book includes seminal articles on the subject as well as an introduction written by Michael Zack.

Links together knowledge and strategy
Seminal articles

Making Big Decisions Better is leading a global movement to equip present and next generation leaders with proven strategy tools that enable agile thinking that ignites stronger, more predictable, direct paths to profit. No more academic theories. These are real tools and a system that enables improved strategic thinking and leadership. This book bridges an unspoken gap in strategy thinking that until now, only provided leaders with just SWOT and Porter's 5 Forces as the language of strategy. By using the decision making tools in Making Big Decisions Better, you'll finally remove the mystique of those you manage up to, and lead those that report to you. You will standout and have a transportable set of tools for any role or industry. There's never been a better time to break away from the outdated, mainstream strategy planning process that misused scarce resources, burned out its leaders and never delivered the results. It's your turn to learn and lead!

Set your company up for long-term success. Every company needs a strategy. A focused strategy aligns decision making throughout the organization and helps establish a competitive edge in the marketplace. But with so many options to consider, how do you define a unique strategy that will ensure growth? Whether you're starting a business from scratch or leading an existing company facing new threats, this book offers the direction you need. The HBR Guide to Setting Your Strategy provides practical tips and advice that break down the process of crafting strategy so you can identify the areas your company should build on to help it thrive long into the future. You'll learn to: Understand what strategy is&#8212and what it isn't Define where you'll play and how you'll win Conduct more-effective strategic discussions with your team Test your strategy before you implement it Communicate your strategy to key stakeholders Ensure your strategy is flexible and adaptable Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck.
So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces.
Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis.
Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

Decision making plays a major role in virtually every theory of organizational behavior. However, decision theory has not provided organizational theorists with useful descriptions of how decisions are made, either by individuals or by individuals in organizations. The earliest offering came from economics in the form of the "normative" rational view of decision making. The underlying presumption was that decision makers are all striving to maximize return or minimize loss, that decisions are based upon unlimited information, and that they have the capacity to use the information efficiently. They know the options open to them and the consequences of pursuing one or another of those options. The optimal course of action is revealed by applying the appropriate analysis and choosing the most profitable option. The key concepts are rationality, analysis, orderliness, and maximization, and even a moment's thought demonstrates the gap between these concepts and real-life experience. From the viewpoint of organizational theory, the primary problem with the normative view of decision making, and by analogy with much behavioral decision research, is its reliance on the "gamble metaphor." That is, decisions are characterized as gambles in an effort to capture the inherent risk. This metaphor has the advantage of simplicity, but it is a flawed simplicity.
This book is about a different kind of behavioral theory -- image theory. It is a psychological theory of decision making that abandons the gamble metaphor and the normative logic that the metaphor supports. Instead it sees decision making as guided by the beliefs and values that the decision maker, or a community of decision makers, holds to be relevant to the decision at hand. These beliefs and values dictate the goals of the decision. The point is to craft a course of action that will achieve these goals without interfering with the pursuit of other goals. The book begins with an overview of image theory that outlines the basic concepts of the theory and a little of its history. The next two parts correspond to the theory's two decision mechanisms, the compatibility test and the profitability test. The final section contains extensions and developments of the theory as well as cognate ideas that have their basis in the theory. This book's purpose is to provide -- in one place -- the theoretical and empirical work that has been done up to now and to suggest directions for future work.

Global virtual teams (GVTs) have evolved as a common work structure in multinational corporations due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The cultural differences can produce great benefits in terms of perspective, creativity, and innovation, but can also exacerbate interpersonal tensions, miscommunications, and clashing decision-making behaviors. This book outlines cultural competencies specific to GVTs and sheds light on management strategies for creating an optimal inter-cultural GVT environment. It covers theory, decision making strategies, and activities for cultural competence and problem resolution, all told through vignettes and lessons-learned.

Young children start school already able to do a surprising amount of mathematics. This book examines the nature and origin of subject knowledge and is based on information gathered from observing the interactions between teachers and their first-year pupils. It demonstrates the necessity of the classroom teacher to draw on many kinds of knowledge in order to deal with various issues surrounding classroom learning and teaching. Two important core areas are knowledge of lesson structure and of subject matter; this book address the area of subject matter and, as such, it should be of interest to classroom teachers and lecturers in education.

Tackling the question of how to effectively aggregate uncertain preference information in multiple structures given by decision-making groups, Theory and Approaches of Unascertained Group Decision-Making focuses on group aggregation methods based on uncertainty preference information. It expresses the complexity existing in each group decision-making process by employing complex networks and studying various methods of aggregating preference information from various unascertained, time-series based decision-making groups' structures. Written by Jianjun Zhu, director of the Chinese Society for Optimization, Overall Planning, and Economic Mathematics, the book starts by examining case studies of group decision making. It discusses consistency measuring and ranking methods of interval number reciprocal judgment matrix and interval number complementary judgment matrix. Next, it presents an unascertained number preference and a three-point interval number preference. Investigating linguistic preferences, the text provides two consistencies definitions. It considers the aggregating methods of several uncertain preferences as well as the multistage aggregating model of uncertain preference. The final chapter proposes an aggregating model of multistage linguistic information based on TOPSIS. The research in this book is supported by a number of scientific foundations from the People's Republic of China, including the National Natural Science Foundation of China; the Social Science Foundation of China, Jiangsu Province; and the Soft Science Foundation of China.

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck. So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces. Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis. Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

In our increasingly globally interconnected world, understanding and appreciating the sociocultural context within which individuals make their decisions is critical to developing successful partnerships. The collection of chapters in this volume illustrates how advances in information and social media technologies, as well as modeling and simulation tools, combined with the social sciences, can be leveraged to better understand how sociocultural context influences decision making. The chapters in this volume were contributed by leading experts from academia, industry, and government and provide: Insights into cross-cultural decision making based on recent international events, with grounding in an historical context Discussions of cutting-edge modeling techniques used today by professionals across multiple organizations and agencies Descriptions of specific cross-cultural decision making tools designed for use by laypeople and professionals Case studies on the role of cross-cultural decision making grounded in current events and (in many cases) military applications.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

A KMCI Press book - a definitive title from the leading, standard-setting KM organizationOnly book to describe fundamental KM concepts and theoriesApproach roots theory in current state of the procession/discipline

Brings together concepts across software engineering with a management perspectiveUse of case material to illustrate points madeIncludes checklists and working templates