The second book in a set of ten on quantitative finance for practitioners Presents the theory needed to better understand applications Supplements previous training in mathematics Built from the author's four decades of experience in industry, research, and teaching

This monograph concisely but thoroughly introduces the reader to the field of mathematical immunology. The book covers first basic principles of formulating a mathematical model, and an outline on data-driven parameter estimation and model selection. The authors then introduce the modeling of experimental and human infections and provide the reader with helpful exercises. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and graduate students in the field of mathematical biology who wish to be concisely introduced into mathematical immunology.

This is the second volume of the reworked second edition of a key work on Point Process Theory. Fully revised and updated by the authors who have reworked their 1988 first edition, it brings together the basic theory of random measures and point processes in a unified setting and continues with the more theoretical topics of the first edition: limit theorems, ergodic theory, Palm theory, and evolutionary behaviour via martingales and conditional intensity. The very substantial new material in this second volume includes expanded discussions of marked point processes, convergence to equilibrium, and the structure of spatial point processes.

The contributions by leading experts in this book focus on a variety of topics of current interest related to information-based complexity, ranging from function approximation, numerical integration, numerical methods for the sphere, and algorithms with random information, to Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods and numerical methods for stochastic differential equations.

TThis book illustrates recent advances in applications of partial order theory and Hasse diagram techniques to data analysis, mainly in the socio-economic and environmental sciences. For years, partial order theory has been considered a fundamental branch of mathematics of only theoretical interest. In recent years, its effectiveness as a tool for data analysis is increasingly being realized and many applications of partially ordered sets to real problems in statistics and applied sciences have appeared. Main examples pertain to the analysis of complex and multidimensional systems of ordinal data and to problems of multi-criteria decision making, so relevant in social and environmental sciences. Partial Order Concepts in Applied Sciences presents new theoretical and methodological developments in partial order for data analysis, together with a wide range of applications to different topics: multidimensional poverty, economic development, inequality measurement, ecology and pollution, and biology, to mention a few. The book is of interest for applied mathematicians, statisticians, social scientists, environmental scientists and all those aiming at keeping pace with innovation in this interesting, growing and promising research field.

This book discusses the need to carefully and prudently apply various regression techniques in order to obtain the full benefits. It also describes some of the techniques developed and used by the authors, presenting their innovative ideas regarding the formulation and estimation of regression decomposition models, hidden Markov chain, and the contribution of regressors in the set-theoretic approach, calorie poverty rate, and aggregate growth rate. Each of these techniques has applications that address a number of unanswered questions; for example, regression decomposition techniques reveal intra-household gender inequalities of consumption, intra-household allocation of resources and adult equivalent scales, while Hidden Markov chain models can forecast the results of future elections. Most of these procedures are presented using real-world data, and the techniques can be applied in other similar situations. Showing how difficult questions can be answered by developing simple models with simple interpretation of parameters, the book is a valuable resource for students and researchers in the field of model building.

This volume contains a unique collection of mathematical essays that resent a battery of techniques and approaches for the statistical analysis of heavy tailed distributions and processes. The articles cover a number of applications of heavy tailed modeling, running the gamut from insurance and finance, to telecommunications and the World Wide Web, and classical signal/noise detection problems.

Statistics for Sport and Exercise Studies guides the student through the full research process, from selecting the most appropriate statistical procedure, to analysing data, to the presentation of results, illustrating every key step in the process with clear examples, case-studies and data taken from real sport and exercise settings. Every chapter includes a range of features designed to help the student grasp the underlying concepts and relate each statistical procedure to their own research project, including definitions of key terms, practical exercises, worked examples and clear summaries. The book also offers an in-depth and practical guide to using SPSS in sport and exercise research, the most commonly used data analysis software in sport and exercise departments. In addition, a companion website includes more than 100 downloadable data sets and work sheets for use in or out of the classroom, full solutions to exercises contained in the book, plus over 1,300 PowerPoint slides for use by tutors and lecturers. Statistics for Sport and Exercise Studies is a complete, user-friendly introduction to the use of statistical tests, techniques and procedures in sport, exercise and related subjects. Visit the companion website at: www.routledge.com/cw/odonoghue

The first comprehensive account of the theory of mass transportation problems and its applications. In Volume I, the authors systematically develop the theory with emphasis on the Monge-Kantorovich mass transportation and the Kantorovich-Rubinstein mass transshipment problems. They then discuss a variety of different approaches towards solving these problems and exploit the rich interrelations to several mathematical sciences - from functional analysis to probability theory and mathematical economics. The second volume is devoted to applications of the above problems to topics in applied probability, theory of moments and distributions with given marginals, queuing theory, risk theory of probability metrics and its applications to various fields, among them general limit theorems for Gaussian and non-Gaussian limiting laws, stochastic differential equations and algorithms, and rounding problems. Useful to graduates and researchers in theoretical and applied probability, operations research, computer science, and mathematical economics, the prerequisites for this book are graduate level probability theory and real and functional analysis.

Features: Second edition has been updated with a new chapter on Nonparametric Estimation; a significant update to the chapter on Statistical Decision Theory; and other updates throughout No requirement for heavy calculus, and simple questions throughout the text help students check their understanding of the material Each chapter also includes a set of exercises that range in level of difficulty Self-contained, and can be used by the students to understand the theory Chapters and sections marked by asterisks contain more advanced topics and may be omitted Special chapters on linear models and nonparametric statistics show how the main theoretical concepts can be applied to well-known and frequently used statistical tools

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon's bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore's Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

Computer-aided modelling is one of the most effective means of getting to the root of a natural phenomenon and of predicting the consequences of human impact on the environment. General methods of numerical modelling of random processes have been effectively developed and the area of applications has rapidly expanded in recent years. This book deals with the development and investigation of numerical methods for simulation of random processes and fields. The book opens with a description of scalar and vector-valued Gaussian models, followed by non-Gaussian models. Furthermore, issues of convergence of approximate models of random fields are studied. The last part of this book is devoted to applications of stochastic modelling, in which new application areas such as simulation of meteorological processes and fields, sea surface undulation, and stochastic structure of clouds, are presented.

This monograph deals with spatially dependent nonstationary time series in a way accessible to both time series econometricians wanting to understand spatial econometics, and spatial econometricians lacking a grounding in time series analysis. After charting key concepts in both time series and spatial econometrics, the book discusses how the spatial connectivity matrix can be estimated using spatial panel data instead of assuming it to be exogenously fixed. This is followed by a discussion of spatial nonstationarity in spatial cross-section data, and a full exposition of non-stationarity in both single and multi-equation contexts, including the estimation and simulation of spatial vector autoregression (VAR) models and spatial error correction (ECM) models. The book reviews the literature on panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests for spatially independent data, and for data that are strongly spatially dependent. It provides for the first time critical values for panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests when the spatial panel data are weakly or spatially dependent. The volume concludes with a discussion of incorporating strong and weak spatial dependence in non-stationary panel data models. All discussions are accompanied by empirical testing based on a spatial panel data of house prices in Israel.

-Includes several real-life examples from health and clinical studies -Introduces statistical concepts of longitudinal data analysis strategies through visualization -Provides datasets and exercises online

This book offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schro- ] dinger, and in quantum mechanics and in modern physics as a whole. It also considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory itself for our understanding of the nature of human thinking and knowledge in general, or the ''epistemological lesson of quantum mechanics, '' as Bohr liked 1 to say. These implications are radical and controversial. While they have been seen as scientifically productive and intellectually liberating to some, Bohr and Heisenberg among them, they have been troublesome to many others, such as Schro] dinger and, most prominently, Albert Einstein. Einstein famously refused to believe that God would resort to playing dice or rather to playing with nature in the way quantum mechanics appeared to suggest, which is indeed quite different from playing dice. According to his later (sometime around 1953) remark, a lesser known or commented upon but arguably more important one: ''That the Lord should play dice], all right; but that He should gamble according to definite rules i. e., according to the rules of quantum mechanics, rather than 2 by merely throwing dice], that is beyond me. '' Although Einstein's invocation of God is taken literally sometimes, he was not talking about God but about the way nature works. Bohr's reply on an earlier occasion to Einstein's question 1 Cf."

This monograph is a slightly revised version of my PhD thesis [86], com pleted in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Edin burgh in June 1988, with an additional chapter summarising more recent developments. Some of the material has appeared in the form of papers [50,88]. The underlying theme of the monograph is the study of two classical problems: counting the elements of a finite set of combinatorial structures, and generating them uniformly at random. In their exact form, these prob lems appear to be intractable for many important structures, so interest has focused on finding efficient randomised algorithms that solve them ap proxim~ly, with a small probability of error. For most natural structures the two problems are intimately connected at this level of approximation, so it is natural to study them together. At the heart of the monograph is a single algorithmic paradigm: sim ulate a Markov chain whose states are combinatorial structures and which converges to a known probability distribution over them. This technique has applications not only in combinatorial counting and generation, but also in several other areas such as statistical physics and combinatorial optimi sation. The efficiency of the technique in any application depends crucially on the rate of convergence of the Markov chain.

The present volume contains the transactions of the lOth Oberwolfach Conference on "Probability Measures on Groups." The series of these meetings inaugurated in 1970 by L. Schmetterer and the editor is devoted to an intensive exchange of ideas on a subject which developed from the relations between various topics of mathematics: measure theory, probability theory, group theory, harmonic analysis, special functions, partial differential operators, quantum stochastics, just to name the most significant ones. Over the years the fruitful interplay broadened in various directions: new group-related structures such as convolution algebras, generalized translation spaces, hypercomplex systems, and hypergroups arose from generalizations as well as from applications, and a gradual refinement of the combinatorial, Banach-algebraic and Fourier analytic methods led to more precise insights into the theory. In a period of highest specialization in scientific thought the separated minds should be reunited by actively emphasizing similarities, analogies and coincidences between ideas in their fields of research. Although there is no real separation between one field and another - David Hilbert denied even the existence of any difference between pure and applied mathematics - bridges between probability theory on one side and algebra, topology and geometry on the other side remain absolutely necessary. They provide a favorable ground for the communication between apparently disjoint research groups and motivate the framework of what is nowadays called "Structural probability theory."

The study of quantum disorder has generated considerable research activity in mathematics and physics over past 40 years. While single-particle models have been extensively studied at a rigorous mathematical level, little was known about systems of several interacting particles, let alone systems with positive spatial particle density. Creating a consistent theory of disorder in multi-particle quantum systems is an important and challenging problem that largely remains open. Multi-scale Analysis for Random Quantum Systems with Interaction presents the progress that had been recently achieved in this area. The main focus of the book is on a rigorous derivation of the multi-particle localization in a strong random external potential field. To make the presentation accessible to a wider audience, the authors restrict attention to a relatively simple tight-binding Anderson model on a cubic lattice Zd. This book includes the following cutting-edge features: an introduction to the state-of-the-art single-particle localization theory an extensive discussion of relevant technical aspects of the localization theory a thorough comparison of the multi-particle model with its single-particle counterpart a self-contained rigorous derivation of both spectral and dynamical localization in the multi-particle tight-binding Anderson model. Required mathematical background for the book includes a knowledge of functional calculus, spectral theory (essentially reduced to the case of finite matrices) and basic probability theory. This is an excellent text for a year-long graduate course or seminar in mathematical physics. It also can serve as a standard reference for specialists.

Classical probability theory provides information about random walks after a fixed number of steps. For applications, however, it is more natural to consider random walks evaluated after a random number of steps. Examples are sequential analysis, queuing theory, storage and inventory theory, insurance risk theory, reliability theory, and the theory of contours. Stopped Random Walks: Limit Theorems and Applications shows how this theory can be used to prove limit theorems for renewal counting processes, first passage time processes, and certain two-dimenstional random walks, and to how these results are useful in various applications.

This second edition offers updated content and an outlook on further results, extensions and generalizations. A new chapter examines nonlinear renewal processes in order to present the analagous theory for perturbed random walks, modeled as a random walk plus "noise."

In honor of professor and renowned statistician R. Dennis Cook, this festschrift explores his influential contributions to an array of statistical disciplines ranging from experimental design and population genetics, to statistical diagnostics and all areas of regression-related inference and analysis. Since the early 1990s, Prof. Cook has led the development of dimension reduction methodology in three distinct but related regression contexts: envelopes, sufficient dimension reduction (SDR), and regression graphics. In particular, he has made fundamental and pioneering contributions to SDR, inventing or co-inventing many popular dimension reduction methods, such as sliced average variance estimation, the minimum discrepancy approach, model-free variable selection, and sufficient dimension reduction subspaces. A prolific researcher and mentor, Prof. Cook is known for his ability to identify research problems in statistics that are both challenging and important, as well as his deep appreciation for the applied side of statistics. This collection of Prof. Cook's collaborators, colleagues, friends, and former students reflects the broad array of his contributions to the research and instructional arenas of statistics.

Statistics and their analysis are key to making mathematical sense of the world around us. In this textbook the authors underscore the importance of statistical methods and calculation skills and explain clearly and simply the key concepts and principles of statistics, so that they are easy to understand. The main purpose of the book is to make students more confident about handling statistical data and enable them to understand the meaning of the results obtained.

Statistical methods cover the collection of data, descriptive methods and inferential methods of analysis. Calculation skills cover elementary calculations, percentages and ratios, equations, graphs and interest calculations. The elementary calculations include basic calculations, such as exponents, decimals, scientific notation, logarithms, rounding and VAT calculations. This book teaches students with no mathematics background how to do basic calculations before concentrating on the statistical applications. For some courses, calculations such as interest, future values of investments, graphs and ratios form part of the core module and are also covered in this book.

Noted for its comprehensive coverage, this greatly expanded new edition now covers the use of univariate and multivariate effect sizes. Many measures and estimators are reviewed along with their application, interpretation, and limitations. Noted for its practical approach, the book features numerous examples using real data for a variety of variables and designs, to help readers apply the material to their own data. Tips on the use of SPSS, SAS, R, and S-Plus are provided. The book's broad disciplinary appeal results from its inclusion of a variety of examples from psychology, medicine, education, and other social sciences. Special attention is paid to confidence intervals, the statistical assumptions of the methods, and robust estimators of effect sizes. The extensive reference section is appreciated by all.

With more than 40% new material, highlights of the new editon include:

• three new multivariate chapters covering effect sizes for analysis of covariance, multiple regression/correlation, and multivariate analysis of variance
• more learning tools in each chapter including introductions, summaries, "Tips and Pitfalls" and more conceptual and computational questions
• more coverage of univariate effect sizes, confidence intervals, and effect sizes for repeated measures to reflect their increased use in research
• more software references for calculating effect sizes and their confidence intervals including SPSS, SAS, R, and S-Plus
• the data used in the book are now provided on the web along with new data and suggested calculations with IBM SPSS syntax for computational practice.

Effect Sizes for Research covers standardized and unstandardized differences between means, correlational measures, strength of association, and parametric and nonparametric measures for between- and within-groups data.

Intended as a resource for professionals, researchers, and advanced students in a variety of fields, this book is also an excellent supplement for advanced statistics courses in psychology, education, the social sciences, business, and medicine. A prerequisite of introductory statistics through factorial analysis of variance and chi-square is recommended.

Contributed in honour of Lucien Le Cam on the occasion of his 70th birthday, the papers reflect the immense influence that his work has had on modern statistics. They include discussions of his seminal ideas, historical perspectives, and contributions to current research - spanning two centuries with a new translation of a paper of Daniel Bernoulli. The volume begins with a paper by Aalen, which describes Le Cams role in the founding of the martingale analysis of point processes, and ends with one by Yu, exploring the position of just one of Le Cams ideas in modern semiparametric theory. The other 27 papers touch on areas such as local asymptotic normality, contiguity, efficiency, admissibility, minimaxity, empirical process theory, and biological medical, and meteorological applications - where Le Cams insights have laid the foundations for new theories.

With the first edition out of print, we decided to arrange for republi cation of Denumerrible Markov Ohains with additional bibliographic material. The new edition contains a section Additional Notes that indicates some of the developments in Markov chain theory over the last ten years. As in the first edition and for the same reasons, we have resisted the temptation to follow the theory in directions that deal with uncountable state spaces or continuous time. A section entitled Additional References complements the Additional Notes. J. W. Pitman pointed out an error in Theorem 9-53 of the first edition, which we have corrected. More detail about the correction appears in the Additional Notes. Aside from this change, we have left intact the text of the first eleven chapters. The second edition contains a twelfth chapter, written by David Griffeath, on Markov random fields. We are grateful to Ted Cox for his help in preparing this material. Notes for the chapter appear in the section Additional Notes. J.G.K., J.L.S., A.W.K."