The state-space approach provides a formal framework where any result or procedure developed for a basic model can be seamlessly applied to a standard formulation written in state-space form. Moreover, it can accommodate with a reasonable effort nonstandard situations, such as observation errors, aggregation constraints, or missing in-sample values. Exploring the advantages of this approach, State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis: Theory, Applications and Software presents many computational procedures that can be applied to a previously specified linear model in state-space form. After discussing the formulation of the state-space model, the book illustrates the flexibility of the state-space representation and covers the main state estimation algorithms: filtering and smoothing. It then shows how to compute the Gaussian likelihood for unknown coefficients in the state-space matrices of a given model before introducing subspace methods and their application. It also discusses signal extraction, describes two algorithms to obtain the VARMAX matrices corresponding to any linear state-space model, and addresses several issues relating to the aggregation and disaggregation of time series. The book concludes with a cross-sectional extension to the classical state-space formulation in order to accommodate longitudinal or panel data. Missing data is a common occurrence here, and the book explains imputation procedures necessary to treat missingness in both exogenous and endogenous variables. Web Resource The authors' E4 MATLAB (R) toolbox offers all the computational procedures, administrative and analytical functions, and related materials for time series analysis. This flexible, powerful, and free software tool enables readers to replicate the practical examples in the text and apply the procedures to their own work.

Survival Analysis with Interval-Censored Data: A Practical Approach with Examples in R, SAS, and BUGS provides the reader with a practical introduction into the analysis of interval-censored survival times. Although many theoretical developments have appeared in the last fifty years, interval censoring is often ignored in practice. Many are unaware of the impact of inappropriately dealing with interval censoring. In addition, the necessary software is at times difficult to trace. This book fills in the gap between theory and practice. Features: -Provides an overview of frequentist as well as Bayesian methods. -Include a focus on practical aspects and applications. -Extensively illustrates the methods with examples using R, SAS, and BUGS. Full programs are available on a supplementary website. The authors: Kris Bogaerts is project manager at I-BioStat, KU Leuven. He received his PhD in science (statistics) at KU Leuven on the analysis of interval-censored data. He has gained expertise in a great variety of statistical topics with a focus on the design and analysis of clinical trials. Arnost Komarek is associate professor of statistics at Charles University, Prague. His subject area of expertise covers mainly survival analysis with the emphasis on interval-censored data and classification based on longitudinal data. He is past chair of the Statistical Modelling Society and editor of Statistical Modelling: An International Journal. Emmanuel Lesaffre is professor of biostatistics at I-BioStat, KU Leuven. His research interests include Bayesian methods, longitudinal data analysis, statistical modelling, analysis of dental data, interval-censored data, misclassification issues, and clinical trials. He is the founding chair of the Statistical Modelling Society, past-president of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, and fellow of ISI and ASA.

This book presents a unified approach on nonparametric estimators for models of independent observations, jump processes and continuous processes. New estimators are defined and their limiting behavior is studied. From a practical point of view, the book expounds on the construction of estimators for functionals of processes and densities, and provides asymptotic expansions and optimality properties from smooth estimators. It also presents new regular estimators for functionals of processes, compares histogram and kernel estimators, compares several new estimators for single-index models, and it examines the weak convergence of the estimators.

Sample surveys is the most important branch of statistics. Without sample surveys there is no data, and without data there is no statistics. This book is the culmination of the lecture notes developed by the authors. The approach is theoretical in the sense that it gives mathematical proofs of the results in sample surveys. Intended as a textbook for a one-semester course for undergraduate seniors or first-year graduate students, a prerequisite basic knowledge of algebra, calculus, and statistical theory is required to master the techniques described in this book.

Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Goergen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).

Process Capability Analysis: Estimating Quality presents a systematic exploration of process capability analysis and how it may be used to estimate quality. The book is designed for practitioners who are tasked with insuring a high level of quality for the products and services offered by their organizations. Along with describing the necessary statistical theory, the book illustrates the practical application of the techniques to data that do not always satisfy the standard assumptions. The first two chapters deal with attribute data, where the estimation of quality is restricted to counts of nonconformities. Both classical and Bayesian methods are discussed. The rest of the book deals with variable data, including extensive discussions of both capability indices and statistical tolerance limits. Considerable emphasis is placed on methods for handling non-normal data. Also included are discussions of topics often omitted in discussions of process capability, including multivariate capability indices, multivariate tolerance limits, and capability control charts. A separate chapter deals with the problem of determining adequate sample sizes for estimating process capability. Features: Comprehensive treatment of the subject with consistent theme of estimating percent of nonconforming product or service. Includes Bayesian methods. Extension of univariate techniques to multivariate data. Demonstration of all techniques using Statgraphics data analysis software. Neil Polhemus is Chief Technology Officer at Statgraphics Technology and the original developer of the Statgraphics program for statistical analysis and data visualization. Dr. Polhemus spent 6 years on the faculty of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Princeton University before moving full-time to software development and consulting. He has taught courses dealing with statistical process control, design of experiments and data analysis for more than 100 companies and government agencies.

Understand How to Analyze and Interpret Information in Ecological Point Patterns Although numerous statistical methods for analyzing spatial point patterns have been available for several decades, they haven't been extensively applied in an ecological context. Addressing this gap, Handbook of Spatial Point-Pattern Analysis in Ecology shows how the techniques of point-pattern analysis are useful for tackling ecological problems. Within an ecological framework, the book guides readers through a variety of methods for different data types and aids in the interpretation of the results obtained by point-pattern analysis. Ideal for empirical ecologists who want to avoid advanced theoretical literature, the book covers statistical techniques for analyzing and interpreting the information contained in ecological patterns. It presents methods used to extract information hidden in spatial point-pattern data that may point to the underlying processes. The authors focus on point processes and null models that have proven their immediate utility for broad ecological applications, such as cluster processes. Along with the techniques, the handbook provides a comprehensive selection of real-world examples. Most of the examples are analyzed using Programita, a continuously updated software package based on the authors' many years of teaching and collaborative research in ecological point-pattern analysis. Programita is tailored to meet the needs of real-world applications in ecology. The software and a manual are available online.

Survival analysis uses statistics to calculate time to failure. Survival Analysis with Python takes a fresh look at this complex subject by explaining how to use the Python programming language to perform this type of analysis. As the subject itself is very mathematical and full of expressions and formulations, the book provides detailed explanations and examines practical implications. The book begins with an overview of the concepts underpinning statistical survival analysis. It then delves into Parametric models with coverage of Concept of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a probability distribution parameter MLE of the survival function Common probability distributions and their analysis Analysis of exponential distribution as a survival function Analysis of Weibull distribution as a survival function Derivation of Gumbel distribution as a survival function from Weibull Non-parametric models including Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator, a derivation of expression using MLE Fitting KM estimator with an example dataset, Python code and plotting curves Greenwood's formula and its derivation Models with covariates explaining The concept of time shift and the accelerated failure time (AFT) model Weibull-AFT model and derivation of parameters by MLE Proportional Hazard (PH) model Cox-PH model and Breslow's method Significance of covariates Selection of covariates The Python lifelines library is used for coding examples. By mapping theory to practical examples featuring datasets, this book is a hands-on tutorial as well as a handy reference.

This volume contains current work at the frontiers of research in quantum probability, infinite dimensional stochastic analysis, quantum information and statistics. It presents a carefully chosen collection of articles by experts to highlight the latest developments in those fields. Included in this volume are expository papers which will help increase communication between researchers working in these areas. The tools and techniques presented here will be of great value to research mathematicians, graduate students and applied mathematicians.

This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.

Interval-Censored Time-to-Event Data: Methods and Applications collects the most recent techniques, models, and computational tools for interval-censored time-to-event data. Top biostatisticians from academia, biopharmaceutical industries, and government agencies discuss how these advances are impacting clinical trials and biomedical research. Divided into three parts, the book begins with an overview of interval-censored data modeling, including nonparametric estimation, survival functions, regression analysis, multivariate data analysis, competing risks analysis, and other models for interval-censored data. The next part presents interval-censored methods for current status data, Bayesian semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored data with monotone splines, Bayesian inferential models for interval-censored data, an estimator for identifying causal effect of treatment, and consistent variance estimation for interval-censored data. In the final part, the contributors use Monte Carlo simulation to assess biases in progression-free survival analysis as well as correct bias in interval-censored time-to-event applications. They also present adaptive decision making methods to optimize the rapid treatment of stroke, explore practical issues in using weighted logrank tests, and describe how to use two R packages. A practical guide for biomedical researchers, clinicians, biostatisticians, and graduate students in biostatistics, this volume covers the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of interval-censored time-to-event data. It shows how up-to-date statistical methods are used in biopharmaceutical and public health applications.

This book reviews the state-of-the-art advances in skew-elliptical distributions and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. The main goal of this research area is to develop flexible parametric classes of distributions beyond the classical normal distribution. The book is divided into two parts. The first part discusses theory and inference for skew-elliptical distribution. The second part examines applications and case studies, including areas such as economics, finance, oceanography, climatology, environmetrics, engineering, image processing, astronomy, and biomedical science.

This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is "white," i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides simple and suitable parameter estimation methods in these models, making it a valuable resource for all researchers in this field. The book is addressed to specialists and researchers in the theory and statistics of stochastic processes, practitioners who apply statistical methods of parameter estimation, graduate and post-graduate students who study mathematical modeling and statistics.

This festschrift includes papers authored by many collaborators, colleagues, and students of Professor Thomas P Hettmansperger, who worked in research in nonparametric statistics, rank statistics, robustness, and mixture models during a career that spanned nearly 40 years. It is a broad sample of peer-reviewed, cutting-edge research related to nonparametrics and mixture models.

This book is a collaborative effort from three workshops held over the last three years, all involving principal contributors to the vine-copula methodology. Research and applications in vines have been growing rapidly and there is now a growing need to collate basic results, and standardize terminology and methods. Specifically, this handbook will (1) trace historical developments, standardizing notation and terminology, (2) summarize results on bivariate copulae, (3) summarize results for regular vines, and (4) give an overview of its applications. In addition, many of these results are new and not readily available in any existing journals. New research directions are also discussed.

Kernel smoothing has greatly evolved since its inception to become an essential methodology in the data science tool kit for the 21st century. Its widespread adoption is due to its fundamental role for multivariate exploratory data analysis, as well as the crucial role it plays in composite solutions to complex data challenges. Multivariate Kernel Smoothing and Its Applications offers a comprehensive overview of both aspects. It begins with a thorough exposition of the approaches to achieve the two basic goals of estimating probability density functions and their derivatives. The focus then turns to the applications of these approaches to more complex data analysis goals, many with a geometric/topological flavour, such as level set estimation, clustering (unsupervised learning), principal curves, and feature significance. Other topics, while not direct applications of density (derivative) estimation but sharing many commonalities with the previous settings, include classification (supervised learning), nearest neighbour estimation, and deconvolution for data observed with error. For a data scientist, each chapter contains illustrative Open data examples that are analysed by the most appropriate kernel smoothing method. The emphasis is always placed on an intuitive understanding of the data provided by the accompanying statistical visualisations. For a reader wishing to investigate further the details of their underlying statistical reasoning, a graduated exposition to a unified theoretical framework is provided. The algorithms for efficient software implementation are also discussed. Jose E. Chacon is an associate professor at the Department of Mathematics of the Universidad de Extremadura in Spain. Tarn Duong is a Senior Data Scientist for a start-up which provides short distance carpooling services in France. Both authors have made important contributions to kernel smoothing research over the last couple of decades.

In multivariate data analysis, regression techniques predict one set of variables from another while principal component analysis (PCA) finds a subspace of minimal dimensionality that captures the largest variability in the data. How can regression analysis and PCA be combined in a beneficial way? Why and when is it a good idea to combine them? What kind of benefits are we getting from them? Addressing these questions, Constrained Principal Component Analysis and Related Techniques shows how constrained PCA (CPCA) offers a unified framework for these approaches. The book begins with four concrete examples of CPCA that provide readers with a basic understanding of the technique and its applications. It gives a detailed account of two key mathematical ideas in CPCA: projection and singular value decomposition. The author then describes the basic data requirements, models, and analytical tools for CPCA and their immediate extensions. He also introduces techniques that are special cases of or closely related to CPCA and discusses several topics relevant to practical uses of CPCA. The book concludes with a technique that imposes different constraints on different dimensions (DCDD), along with its analytical extensions. MATLAB (R) programs for CPCA and DCDD as well as data to create the book's examples are available on the author's website.

Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts and techniques of the Bayesian paradigm from a practical point of view using real case studies. They emphasize how hierarchical Bayesian modeling supports multidimensional models involving complex interactions between parameters and latent variables. Data sets, exercises, and R and WinBUGS codes are available on the authors' website. This book shows how Bayesian statistical modeling provides an intuitive way to organize data, test ideas, investigate competing hypotheses, and assess degrees of confidence of predictions. It also illustrates how conditional reasoning can dismantle a complex reality into more understandable pieces. As conditional reasoning is intimately linked with Bayesian thinking, considering hierarchical models within the Bayesian setting offers a unified and coherent framework for modeling, estimation, and prediction.

The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach. Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, presenting the interesting possibility of introducing alternative test statistics to classical ones like Wald, Rao, and likelihood ratio. Each chapter concludes with exercises that clarify the theoretical results and present additional results that complement the main discussions. Clear, comprehensive, and logically developed, this book offers a unique opportunity to gain not only a new perspective on some standard statistics problems, but the tools to put it into practice.

Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data. The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational material for the remaining chapters, which cover the construction of structural models and the extension of vector autoregressive modeling to high frequency, continuously recorded, and irregularly sampled series. The final chapter combines these approaches with spectral methods for identifying causal dependence between time series. Web ResourceA supplementary website provides the data sets used in the examples as well as documented MATLAB (R) functions and other code for analyzing the examples and producing the illustrations. The site also offers technical details on the estimation theory and methods and the implementation of the models.

Practical Handbook of Curve Fitting is a reference work assembled by Arlinghaus and a set of editors with well over a century of combined experience in various disciplines and activities related to curve fitting. The book demonstrates how to analyze World data bases and graph and map the results. Default settings in software packages can produce attractive graphs of data imported into the software. Often, however, the default graph has no equation associated with it and cannot therefore be used as a tool for further analysis or projection of the data. The same software can often be used to generate curves from equations. The reader is shown directly, and in a series of steps, how to fit curves to data using Lotus 1-2-3. There are traditional unbounded curve fitting techniques-lines of least squares, exponentials, logistic curves, and Gompertz curves. There is the bounded curve fitting technique of cubic spline interpolation. Beyond these, there is a detailed application of Feigenbaum's graphical analysis from chaos theory, and there is a hint as to how fractal geometry might come into play. Curve fitting algorithms take on new life when they are actually used on real-world data. They are used in numerous worked examples drawn from electronic data bases of public domain information from the Stars data base of The World Bank and from the WRD data base of the World Resources Institute. The applications are current and reflect a state-of-the-art interest in the human dimensions of global change.

Over the last few years, significant developments have been taking place in high-dimensional data analysis, driven primarily by a wide range of applications in many fields such as genomics and signal processing. In particular, substantial advances have been made in the areas of feature selection, covariance estimation, classification and regression. This book intends to examine important issues arising from high-dimensional data analysis to explore key ideas for statistical inference and prediction.

It is structured around topics on multiple hypothesis testing, feature selection, regression, classification, dimension reduction, as well as applications in survival analysis and biomedical research.

The book will appeal to graduate students and new researchers interested in the plethora of opportunities available in high-dimensional data analysis.

Interest in predictive analytics of big data has grown exponentially in the four years since the publication of Statistical and Machine-Learning Data Mining: Techniques for Better Predictive Modeling and Analysis of Big Data, Second Edition. In the third edition of this bestseller, the author has completely revised, reorganized, and repositioned the original chapters and produced 13 new chapters of creative and useful machine-learning data mining techniques. In sum, the 43 chapters of simple yet insightful quantitative techniques make this book unique in the field of data mining literature. What is new in the Third Edition: The current chapters have been completely rewritten. The core content has been extended with strategies and methods for problems drawn from the top predictive analytics conference and statistical modeling workshops. Adds thirteen new chapters including coverage of data science and its rise, market share estimation, share of wallet modeling without survey data, latent market segmentation, statistical regression modeling that deals with incomplete data, decile analysis assessment in terms of the predictive power of the data, and a user-friendly version of text mining, not requiring an advanced background in natural language processing (NLP). Includes SAS subroutines which can be easily converted to other languages. As in the previous edition, this book offers detailed background, discussion, and illustration of specific methods for solving the most commonly experienced problems in predictive modeling and analysis of big data. The author addresses each methodology and assigns its application to a specific type of problem. To better ground readers, the book provides an in-depth discussion of the basic methodologies of predictive modeling and analysis. While this type of overview has been attempted before, this approach offers a truly nitty-gritty, step-by-step method that both tyros and experts in the field can enjoy playing with.

"Provides well-integrated, comprehensive coverage of all the major statistical designs and methods used for animal studies in pharmaceutical research and development. Demonstrates the correct way to interpret the results of animal studies in the risk assessment of biopharmaceutical products and clarifies detailed presentations with real-world examples. "

Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Models: Exploring the Limits of Limited Data shows how the Bayesian approach to inference is applicable to partially identified models (PIMs) and examines the performance of Bayesian procedures in partially identified contexts. Drawing on his many years of research in this area, the author presents a thorough overview of the statistical theory, properties, and applications of PIMs. The book first describes how reparameterization can assist in computing posterior quantities and providing insight into the properties of Bayesian estimators. It next compares partial identification and model misspecification, discussing which is the lesser of the two evils. The author then works through PIM examples in depth, examining the ramifications of partial identification in terms of how inferences change and the extent to which they sharpen as more data accumulate. He also explains how to characterize the value of information obtained from data in a partially identified context and explores some recent applications of PIMs. In the final chapter, the author shares his thoughts on the past and present state of research on partial identification. This book helps readers understand how to use Bayesian methods for analyzing PIMs. Readers will recognize under what circumstances a posterior distribution on a target parameter will be usefully narrow versus uselessly wide.