Introduction to Design and Analysis of Scientific Studies exposes undergraduate and graduate students to the foundations of classical experimental design and observational studies through a modern framework - The Rubin Causal Model. A causal inference framework is important in design, data collection and analysis since it provides a framework for investigators to readily evaluate study limitations and draw appropriate conclusions. R is used to implement designs and analyse the data collected. Features: Classical experimental design with an emphasis on computation using tidyverse packages in R. Applications of experimental design to clinical trials, A/B testing, and other modern examples. Discussion of the link between classical experimental design and causal inference. The role of randomization in experimental design and sampling in the big data era. Exercises with solutions. Instructor slides in RMarkdown, a new R package will be developed to be used with book, and a bookdown version of the book will be freely available. The proposed book will emphasize ethics, communication and decision making as part of design, data analysis, and statistical thinking.

This volume consists of a series of research papers presented at the conference Statistics 2011 Canada: 5th Canadian Conference in Applied Statistics held together with the 20th conference of the Forum for Interdisciplinary Mathematics titled, "Interdisciplinary Mathematical & Statistical Techniques". These papers cover a wide range of topics from applications of Mathematics and Statistics such as Selection Bias in Surveys, Biomarker Discovery, Analysis of Earth Temperature, Supply Chain Management, Trimmed ANOVA, Zero-inflated Data, Non-Gaussian Time Series, and Stochastic Ordering; Classification, Nonparametric Test, and Jackknifed Ridge Estimator; Bayes Factor; Random Graphs and Error Correcting Codes; Meta Analysis; and National Health Plans and Risk Reduction through Supply Chain.The topics have been reviewed by experts in the field and the selected papers are expected to provide a topical resource on the subjects concerned.

The simplest mathematical model of the Brownian motion of physics is the simple, symmetric random walk. This book collects and compares current results - mostly strong theorems which describe the properties of a random walk. The modern problems of the limit theorems of probability theory are treated in the simple case of coin tossing. Taking advantage of this simplicity, the reader is familiarized with limit theorems (especially strong ones) without the burden of technical tools and difficulties. An easy way of considering the Wiener process is also given, through the study of the random walk. Since the first and second editions were published in 1990 and 2005, a number of new results have appeared in the literature. The first two editions contained many unsolved problems and conjectures which have since been settled; this third, revised and enlarged edition includes those new results. In this edition, a completely new part is included concerning Simple Random Walks on Graphs. Properties of random walks on several concrete graphs have been studied in the last decade. Some of the obtained results are also presented.

Event mining encompasses techniques for automatically and efficiently extracting valuable knowledge from historical event/log data. The field, therefore, plays an important role in data-driven system management. Event Mining: Algorithms and Applications presents state-of-the-art event mining approaches and applications with a focus on computing system management. The book first explains how to transform log data in disparate formats and contents into a canonical form as well as how to optimize system monitoring. It then shows how to extract useful knowledge from data. It describes intelligent and efficient methods and algorithms to perform data-driven pattern discovery and problem determination for managing complex systems. The book also discusses data-driven approaches for the detailed diagnosis of a system issue and addresses the application of event summarization in Twitter messages (tweets). Understanding the interdisciplinary field of event mining can be challenging as it requires familiarity with several research areas and the relevant literature is scattered in diverse publications. This book makes it easier to explore the field by providing both a good starting point for readers not familiar with the topics and a comprehensive reference for those already working in this area.

In the quarter of a century since three mathematicians and game theorists collaborated to create Winning Ways for Your Mathematical Plays, the book has become the definitive work on the subject of mathematical games. Now carefully revised and broken down into four volumes to accommodate new developments, the Second Edition retains the original's wealth of wit and wisdom. The authors' insightful strategies, blended with their witty and irreverent style, make reading a profitable pleasure. In Volume 3, the authors examine Games played in Clubs, giving case studies for coin and paper-and-pencil games, such as Dots-and-Boxes and Nimstring. From the Table of Contents: - Turn and Turn About - Chips and Strips - Dots-and-Boxes - Spots and Sprouts - The Emperor and His Money - The King and the Consumer - Fox and Geese; Hare and Hounds - Lines and Squares

Building on the author's more than 35 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Third Edition, covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. The third edition has been updated with several new applications, including the Google search algorithm in discrete time Markov chains, several examples from health care and finance in continuous time Markov chains, and square root staffing rule in Queuing models. More than 50 new exercises have been added to enhance its use as a course text or for self-study. The sequence of chapters and exercises has been maintained between editions, to enable those now teaching from the second edition to use the third edition. Rather than offer special tricks that work in specific problems, this book provides thorough coverage of general tools that enable the solution and analysis of stochastic models. After mastering the material in the text, readers will be well-equipped to build and analyze useful stochastic models for real-life situations.

This book uses asymptotic methods to obtain simple approximate analytic solutions to various problems within mechanics, notably wave processes in heterogeneous materials. Presenting original solutions to common issues within mechanics, this book builds upon years of research to demonstrate the benefits of implementing asymptotic techniques within mechanical engineering and material science. Focusing on linear and nonlinear wave phenomena in complex micro-structured solids, the book determines their global characteristics through analysis of their internal structure, using homogenization and asymptotic procedures, in line with the latest thinking within the field. The book's cutting-edge methodology can be applied to optimal design, non-destructive control and in deep seismic sounding, providing a valuable alternative to widely used numerical methods. Using case studies, the book covers topics such as elastic waves in nonhomogeneous materials, regular and chaotic dynamics based on continualisation and discretization and vibration localization in 1D Linear and Nonlinear lattices. The book will be of interest to students, research engineers, and professionals specialising in mathematics and physics as well as mechanical and civil engineering.

'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2 'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular Science Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science. Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature

Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subject. After reviewing univariate extreme value analysis and multivariate extremes, the book explains univariate extreme value mixture modeling, threshold selection in extreme value analysis, and threshold modeling of non-stationary extremes. It presents new results for block-maxima of vine copulas, develops time series of extremes with applications from climatology, describes max-autoregressive and moving maxima models for extremes, and discusses spatial extremes and max-stable processes. The book then covers simulation and conditional simulation of max-stable processes; inference methodologies, such as composite likelihood, Bayesian inference, and approximate Bayesian computation; and inferences about extreme quantiles and extreme dependence. It also explores novel applications of extreme value modeling, including financial investments, insurance and financial risk management, weather and climate disasters, clinical trials, and sports statistics. Risk analyses related to extreme events require the combined expertise of statisticians and domain experts in climatology, hydrology, finance, insurance, sports, and other fields. This book connects statistical/mathematical research with critical decision and risk assessment/management applications to stimulate more collaboration between these statisticians and specialists.

Missing Data Analysis in Practice provides practical methods for analyzing missing data along with the heuristic reasoning for understanding the theoretical underpinnings. Drawing on his 25 years of experience researching, teaching, and consulting in quantitative areas, the author presents both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. He describes easy-to-implement approaches, the underlying assumptions, and practical means for assessing these assumptions. Actual and simulated data sets illustrate important concepts, with the data sets and codes available online. The book underscores the development of missing data methods and their adaptation to practical problems. It mainly focuses on the traditional missing data problem. The author also shows how to use the missing data framework in many other statistical problems, such as measurement error, finite population inference, disclosure limitation, combing information from multiple data sources, and causal inference.

The Statistical Analysis of Multivariate Failure Time Data: A Marginal Modeling Approach provides an innovative look at methods for the analysis of correlated failure times. The focus is on the use of marginal single and marginal double failure hazard rate estimators for the extraction of regression information. For example, in a context of randomized trial or cohort studies, the results go beyond that obtained by analyzing each failure time outcome in a univariate fashion. The book is addressed to researchers, practitioners, and graduate students, and can be used as a reference or as a graduate course text. Much of the literature on the analysis of censored correlated failure time data uses frailty or copula models to allow for residual dependencies among failure times, given covariates. In contrast, this book provides a detailed account of recently developed methods for the simultaneous estimation of marginal single and dual outcome hazard rate regression parameters, with emphasis on multiplicative (Cox) models. Illustrations are provided of the utility of these methods using Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial data of menopausal hormones and of a low-fat dietary pattern intervention. As byproducts, these methods provide flexible semiparametric estimators of pairwise bivariate survivor functions at specified covariate histories, as well as semiparametric estimators of cross ratio and concordance functions given covariates. The presentation also describes how these innovative methods may extend to handle issues of dependent censorship, missing and mismeasured covariates, and joint modeling of failure times and covariates, setting the stage for additional theoretical and applied developments. This book extends and continues the style of the classic Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data by Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Ross L. Prentice is Professor of Biostatistics at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and University of Washington in Seattle, Washington. He is the recipient of COPSS Presidents and Fisher awards, the AACR Epidemiology/Prevention and Team Science awards, and is a member of the National Academy of Medicine. Shanshan Zhao is a Principal Investigator at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

The goal of Portfolio Rebalancing is to provide mathematical and empirical analysis of the effects of portfolio rebalancing on portfolio returns and risks. The mathematical analysis answers the question of when and why fixed-weight portfolios might outperform buy-and-hold portfolios based on volatilities and returns. The empirical analysis, aided by mathematical insights, will examine the effects of portfolio rebalancing in capital markets for asset allocation portfolios and portfolios of stocks, bonds, and commodities.

Repeated Measures Design with Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Randomized Controlled Trials is the first book focused on the application of generalized linear mixed models and its related models in the statistical design and analysis of repeated measures from randomized controlled trials. The author introduces a new repeated measures design called S:T design combined with mixed models as a practical and useful framework of parallel group RCT design because of easy handling of missing data and sample size reduction. The book emphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of statistical analyses and the interpretation of results. It includes chapters in which the author describes some old-fashioned analysis designs that have been in the literature and compares the results with those obtained from the corresponding mixed models. The book will be of interest to biostatisticians, researchers, and graduate students in the medical and health sciences who are involved in clinical trials. Author Website:Data sets and programs used in the book are available at http://www.medstat.jp/downloadrepeatedcrc.html

Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to decision-makers, and the use of bivariate probability distributions to capture joint interactions between a system's cost and schedule. Analytical techniques from probability theory are stressed, along with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Numerous examples and case discussions illustrate the practical application of theoretical concepts. While the original chapters from the first edition remain unchanged, this second edition contains new material focusing on the application of theory to problems encountered in practice. Highlights include the use of GERM to build development and production cost estimating relationships as well as the eSBM, which was developed from a need in the community to offer simplified analytical alternatives to advanced probability-based approaches. The book also lists the major technical works of the late Dr. Stephen A. Book, a mathematician and world-renowned cost analyst whose contributions advanced the theory and practice of cost risk analysis.

Discover the Latest Statistical Approaches for Modeling Exposure-Response Relationships Written by an applied statistician with extensive practical experience in drug development, Exposure-Response Modeling: Methods and Practical Implementation explores a wide range of topics in exposure-response modeling, from traditional pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling to other areas in drug development and beyond. It incorporates numerous examples and software programs for implementing novel methods. The book describes using measurement error models to treat sequential modeling, fitting models with exposure and response driven by complex dynamics, and survival analysis with dynamic exposure history. It also covers Bayesian analysis and model-based Bayesian decision analysis, causal inference to eliminate confounding biases, and exposure-response modeling with response-dependent dose/treatment adjustments (dynamic treatment regimes) for personalized medicine and treatment adaptation. Many examples illustrate the use of exposure-response modeling in experimental toxicology, clinical pharmacology, epidemiology, and drug safety. Some examples demonstrate how to solve practical problems while others help with understanding concepts and evaluating the performance of new methods. The provided SAS and R codes enable readers to test the approaches in their own scenarios. Although application oriented, this book also gives a systematic treatment of concepts and methodology. Applied statisticians and modelers can find details on how to implement new approaches. Researchers can find topics for or applications of their work. In addition, students can see how complicated methodology and models are applied to practical situations.

Data Analysis with Competing Risks and Intermediate States explains when and how to use models and techniques for the analysis of competing risks and intermediate states. It covers the most recent insights on estimation techniques and discusses in detail how to interpret the obtained results. After introducing example studies from the biomedical and epidemiological fields, the book formally defines the concepts that play a role in analyses with competing risks and intermediate states. It addresses nonparametric estimation of the relevant quantities. The book then shows how to use a stacked data set that offers great flexibility in the modeling of covariable effects on the transition rates between states. It also describes three ways to quantify effects on the cumulative scale. Each chapter includes standard exercises that reflect on the concepts presented, a section on software that explains options in SAS and Stata and the functionality in the R program, and computer practicals that allow readers to practice with the techniques using an existing data set of bone marrow transplant patients. The book's website provides the R code for the computer practicals along with other material. For researchers with some experience in the analysis of standard time-to-event data, this practical and thorough treatment extends their knowledge and skills to the competing risks and multi-state settings. Researchers from other fields can also easily translate individuals and diseases to units and phenomena from their own areas.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications is based on a decade of the authors' collaborative work in age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Within a single, consistent HAPC-GLMM statistical modeling framework, the authors synthesize APC models and methods for three research designs: age-by-time period tables of population rates or proportions, repeated cross-section sample surveys, and accelerated longitudinal panel studies. The authors show how the empirical application of the models to various problems leads to many fascinating findings on how outcome variables develop along the age, period, and cohort dimensions. The book makes two essential contributions to quantitative studies of time-related change. Through the introduction of the GLMM framework, it shows how innovative estimation methods and new model specifications can be used to tackle the "model identification problem" that has hampered the development and empirical application of APC analysis. The book also addresses the major criticism against APC analysis by explaining the use of new models within the GLMM framework to uncover mechanisms underlying age patterns and temporal trends. Encompassing both methodological expositions and empirical studies, this book explores the ways in which statistical models, methods, and research designs can be used to open new possibilities for APC analysis. It compares new and existing models and methods and provides useful guidelines on how to conduct APC analysis. For empirical illustrations, the text incorporates examples from a variety of disciplines, such as sociology, demography, and epidemiology. Along with details on empirical analyses, software and programs to estimate the models are available on the book's web page.

Tackling the cybersecurity challenge is a matter of survival for society at large. Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing in sophistication and magnitude-and in their destructive potential. New threats emerge regularly, the last few years having seen a ransomware boom and distributed denial-of-service attacks leveraging the Internet of Things. For organisations, the use of cybersecurity risk management is essential in order to manage these threats. Yet current frameworks have drawbacks which can lead to the suboptimal allocation of cybersecurity resources. Cyber insurance has been touted as part of the solution - based on the idea that insurers can incentivize companies to improve their cybersecurity by offering premium discounts - but cyber insurance levels remain limited. This is because companies have difficulty determining which cyber insurance products to purchase, and insurance companies struggle to accurately assess cyber risk and thus develop cyber insurance products. To deal with these challenges, this volume presents new models for cybersecurity risk management, partly based on the use of cyber insurance. It contains: A set of mathematical models for cybersecurity risk management, including (i) a model to assist companies in determining their optimal budget allocation between security products and cyber insurance and (ii) a model to assist insurers in designing cyber insurance products. The models use adversarial risk analysis to account for the behavior of threat actors (as well as the behavior of companies and insurers). To inform these models, we draw on psychological and behavioural economics studies of decision-making by individuals regarding cybersecurity and cyber insurance. We also draw on organizational decision-making studies involving cybersecurity and cyber insurance. Its theoretical and methodological findings will appeal to researchers across a wide range of cybersecurity-related disciplines including risk and decision analysis, analytics, technology management, actuarial sciences, behavioural sciences, and economics. The practical findings will help cybersecurity professionals and insurers enhance cybersecurity and cyber insurance, thus benefiting society as a whole. This book grew out of a two-year European Union-funded project under Horizons 2020, called CYBECO (Supporting Cyber Insurance from a Behavioral Choice Perspective).

The properties of the harmonic oscillator with random frequency or/and random damping formed the content of the first edition. The second edition includes hundreds of publications on this subject since 2005. The noisy oscillator continues to be the subject of intensive studies in physics, chemistry, biology, and social sciences.The new and the latest type of a stochastic oscillator has also been considered, namely, an oscillator with random mass. Such model describes, among other phenomena, Brownian motion with adhesion, where the molecules of the surrounding medium not only randomly collide, but also stick to the Brownian particle for some (random) time, thereby changing its mass. This edition contains two new chapters, eight new sections and an expanded bibliography. A wide group of researchers, students and teachers will benefit from this book.

Health economics is concerned with the study of the cost-effectiveness of health care interventions. This book provides an overview of Bayesian methods for the analysis of health economic data. After an introduction to the basic economic concepts and methods of evaluation, it presents Bayesian statistics using accessible mathematics. The next chapters describe the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis from a statistical viewpoint, and Bayesian computation, notably MCMC. The final chapter presents three detailed case studies covering cost-effectiveness analyses using individual data from clinical trials, evidence synthesis and hierarchical models and Markov models. The text uses WinBUGS and JAGS with datasets and code available online.

The book is aimed at graduate students and researchers with basic knowledge of Probability and Integration Theory. It introduces classical inequalities in vector and functional spaces with applications to probability. It also develops new extensions of the analytical inequalities, with sharper bounds and generalizations to the sum or the supremum of random variables, to martingales and to transformed Brownian motions. The proofs of the new results are presented in great detail.

Drawing on the authors extensive research in the analysis of categorical longitudinal data, Latent Markov Models for Longitudinal Data focuses on the formulation of latent Markov models and the practical use of these models. Numerous examples illustrate how latent Markov models are used in economics, education, sociology, and other fields. The R and MATLAB(r) routines used for the examples are available on the authors website.

The book provides you with the essential background on latent variable models, particularly the latent class model. It discusses how the Markov chain model and the latent class model represent a useful paradigm for latent Markov models. The authors illustrate the assumptions of the basic version of the latent Markov model and introduce maximum likelihood estimation through the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. They also cover constrained versions of the basic latent Markov model, describe the inclusion of the individual covariates, and address the random effects and multilevel extensions of the model. After covering advanced topics, the book concludes with a discussion on Bayesian inference as an alternative to maximum likelihood inference.

As longitudinal data become increasingly relevant in many fields, researchers must rely on specific statistical and econometric models tailored to their application. A complete overview of latent Markov models, this book demonstrates how to use the models in three types of analysis: transition analysis with measurement errors, analyses that consider unobserved heterogeneity, and finding clusters of units and studying the transition between the clusters."

Requiring no prior training, Modern Statistics for the Social and Behavioral Sciences provides a two-semester, graduate-level introduction to basic statistical techniques that takes into account recent advances and insights that are typically ignored in an introductory course. Hundreds of journal articles make it clear that basic techniques, routinely taught and used, can perform poorly when dealing with skewed distributions, outliers, heteroscedasticity (unequal variances) and curvature. Methods for dealing with these concerns have been derived and can provide a deeper, more accurate and more nuanced understanding of data. A conceptual basis is provided for understanding when and why standard methods can have poor power and yield misleading measures of effect size. Modern techniques for dealing with known concerns are described and illustrated. Features: Presents an in-depth description of both classic and modern methods Explains and illustrates why recent advances can provide more power and a deeper understanding of data Provides numerous illustrations using the software R Includes an R package with over 1300 functions Includes a solution manual giving detailed answers to all of the exercises This second edition describes many recent advances relevant to basic techniques. For example, a vast array of new and improved methods is now available for dealing with regression, including substantially improved ANCOVA techniques. The coverage of multiple comparison procedures has been expanded and new ANOVA techniques are described. Rand Wilcox is a professor of psychology at the University of Southern California. He is the author of 13 other statistics books and the creator of the R package WRS. He currently serves as an associate editor for five statistics journals. He is a fellow of the Association for Psychological Science and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute.

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is the generation and synthesis of evidence that compares the benefits and harms of alternative methods to prevent, diagnose, treat, and monitor a clinical condition or to improve the delivery of care (IOM 2009). CER is conducted to develop evidence that will aid patients, clinicians, purchasers, and health policy makers in making informed decisions at both the individual and population levels. CER encompasses a very broad range of types of studies-experimental, observational, prospective, retrospective, and research synthesis. This volume covers the main areas of quantitative methodology for the design and analysis of CER studies. The volume has four major sections-causal inference; clinical trials; research synthesis; and specialized topics. The audience includes CER methodologists, quantitative-trained researchers interested in CER, and graduate students in statistics, epidemiology, and health services and outcomes research. The book assumes a masters-level course in regression analysis and familiarity with clinical research.

A New Approach to Sound Statistical Reasoning Inferential Models: Reasoning with Uncertainty introduces the authors' recently developed approach to inference: the inferential model (IM) framework. This logical framework for exact probabilistic inference does not require the user to input prior information. The authors show how an IM produces meaningful prior-free probabilistic inference at a high level. The book covers the foundational motivations for this new IM approach, the basic theory behind its calibration properties, a number of important applications, and new directions for research. It discusses alternative, meaningful probabilistic interpretations of some common inferential summaries, such as p-values. It also constructs posterior probabilistic inferential summaries without a prior and Bayes' formula and offers insight on the interesting and challenging problems of conditional and marginal inference. This book delves into statistical inference at a foundational level, addressing what the goals of statistical inference should be. It explores a new way of thinking compared to existing schools of thought on statistical inference and encourages you to think carefully about the correct approach to scientific inference.