This work contains an up-to-date coverage of the last 20 years' advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of Bayesian inference for linear regression models. It thus covers a broad range of rather recent models for economic time series, such as non linear models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic regressions, and cointegrated vector autoregressive models. It contains also an extensive chapter on unit root inference from the Bayesian viewpoint. Several examples illustrate the methods. This book is intended for econometrics and statistics postgraduates, professors and researchers in economics departments, business schools, statistics departments, or any research centre in the same fields, especially econometricians.

This monograph addresses two quite different topics, in the belief that each can shed light on the other. Firstly, it lays the foundation for a particular view of the bootstrap. Secondly, it gives an account of Edgeworth expansion. Chapter 1 is about the bootstrap, witih almost no mention of Edgeworth expansion; Chapter 2 is about Edgeworth expansion, with scarcely a word about the bootstrap; and Chapters 3 and 4 bring these two themes together, using Edgeworth expansion to explore and develop the properites of the bootstrap. The book is aimed a a graduate level audience who has some exposure to the methods of theoretical statistics. However, technical details are delayed until the last chapter (entitled "Details of Mathematical Rogour"), and so a mathematically able reader without knowledge of the rigorous theory of probability will have no trouble understanding the first four-fifths of the book. The book simultaneously fills two gaps in the literature; it provides a very readable graduate level account of the theory of Edgeworth expansion, and it gives a detailed introduction to the theory of bootstrap methods.

A novel exposition of the analysis of variance and regression. The key feature here is that these tools are viewed in their natural mathematical setting - the geometry of finite dimensions. This is because geometry clarifies the basic statistics and unifies the many aspects of analysing variance and regression.

Geometric tolerances are changing the way we design and manufacture industrial products. Geometric Tolerances covers their impact on the world of design and production, highlighting new perspectives, possibilities, current issues and future challenges. The topics covered are designed to be relevant to readers from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from product designers and manufacturers to quality inspection engineers and quality engineers involved in statistical process monitoring. Areas included are: * selection of appropriate geometric tolerances and how they stack up in assembled products; * inspection of parts subjected to geometric tolerancing from the macro to the micro and sub-micro scales; and * enhancement of efficiency and efficacy of quality monitoring. Geometric Tolerances provides the reader with the most recent scientific research in the field, as well as with a significant amount of real-life industrial case studies, delivering a multidisciplinary, synoptic view of one of the hottest and most strategic topics in industrial production.

This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.

First Published in 1967. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

This book is based on the view that cognitive skills are best acquired by solving challenging, non-standard probability problems.

Many puzzles and problems presented here are either new within a problem solving context (although as topics in fundamental research they are long known) or are variations of classical problems which follow directly from elementary concepts. A small number of particularly instructive problems is taken from previous sources which in this case are generally given. This book will be a handy resource for professors looking for problems to assign, for undergraduate math students, and for a more general audience of amateur scientists.

Presents compendium of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance. Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets. Includes comprehensive compilation of methods from model based, data driven to hybrid. Discusses benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy an uncertainty depending on the target application, type of asset and forecast performance expected. Contains toolset of methods and way of deployment aimed at versatile audience.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of recent novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and discusses developments in the field of nanoparticle/inorganic/organic materials development for antiviral application, therapeutic applications, PPE kit formulations and inclusion of simulated data. The contents focus on measures to keep the infections in check, materials aspects for detection and monitoring, AI modeling for prediction of spread of the virus, among others. This book will be a useful reference for researchers, scientists and policy makers alike.

During the last two decades, structural equation modeling (SEM) has emerged as a powerful multivariate data analysis tool in social science research settings, especially in the fields of sociology, psychology, and education. Although its roots can be traced back to the first half of this century, when Spearman (1904) developed factor analysis and Wright (1934) introduced path analysis, it was not until the 1970s that the works by Karl Joreskog and his associates (e. g., Joreskog, 1977; Joreskog and Van Thillo, 1973) began to make general SEM techniques accessible to the social and behavioral science research communities. Today, with the development and increasing avail ability of SEM computer programs, SEM has become a well-established and respected data analysis method, incorporating many of the traditional analysis techniques as special cases. State-of-the-art SEM software packages such as LISREL (Joreskog and Sorbom, 1993a, b) and EQS (Bentler, 1993; Bentler and Wu, 1993) handle a variety of ordinary least squares regression designs as well as complex structural equation models involving variables with arbitrary distributions. Unfortunately, many students and researchers hesitate to use SEM methods, perhaps due to the somewhat complex underlying statistical repre sentation and theory. In my opinion, social science students and researchers can benefit greatly from acquiring knowledge and skills in SEM since the methods-applied appropriately-can provide a bridge between the theo retical and empirical aspects of behavioral research."

The computational models of physical systems comprise parameters, independent and dependent variables. Since the physical processes themselves are seldom known precisely and since most of the model parameters stem from experimental procedures which are also subject to imprecisions, the results predicted by these models are also imprecise, being affected by the uncertainties underlying the respective model. The functional derivatives (also called "sensitivities") of results (also called "responses") produced by mathematical/computational models are needed for many purposes, including: (i) understanding the model by ranking the importance of the various model parameters; (ii) performing "reduced-order modeling" by eliminating unimportant parameters and/or processes; (iii) quantifying the uncertainties induced in a model response due to model parameter uncertainties; (iv) performing "model validation," by comparing computations to experiments to address the question "does the model represent reality?" (v) prioritizing improvements in the model; (vi) performing data assimilation and model calibration as part of forward "predictive modeling" to obtain best-estimate predicted results with reduced predicted uncertainties; (vii) performing inverse "predictive modeling"; (viii) designing and optimizing the system. This 3-Volume monograph describes a comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology, developed by the author, which enables the efficient and exact computation of arbitrarily high-order sensitivities of model responses in large-scale systems comprising many model parameters. The qualifier "comprehensive" is employed to highlight that the model parameters considered within the framework of this methodology also include the system's uncertain boundaries and internal interfaces in phase-space. The model's responses can be either scalar-valued functionals of the model's parameters and state variables (e.g., as customarily encountered in optimization problems) or general function-valued responses. Since linear operators admit bona-fide adjoint operators, responses of models that are linear in the state functions (i.e., dependent variables) can depend simultaneously on both the forward and the adjoint state functions. Hence, the sensitivity analysis of such responses warrants the treatment of linear systems in their own right, rather than treating them as particular cases of nonlinear systems. This is in contradistinction to responses for nonlinear systems, which can depend only on the forward state functions, since nonlinear operators do not admit bona-fide adjoint operators (only a linearized form of a nonlinear operator may admit an adjoint operator). Thus, Volume 1 of this book presents the mathematical framework of the nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Response-Coupled Forward/Adjoint Linear Systems (abbreviated as "nth-CASAM-L"), which is conceived for the most efficient computation of exactly obtained mathematical expressions of arbitrarily-high-order (nth-order) sensitivities of a generic system response with respect to all of the parameters underlying the respective forward/adjoint systems. Volume 2 of this book presents the application of the nth-CASAM-L to perform a fourth-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark which is representative of a large-scale model comprises many (21,976) uncertain parameters, thereby amply illustrating the unique potential of the nth-CASAM-L to enable the exact and efficient computation of chosen high-order response sensitivities to model parameters. Volume 3 of this book presents the "nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems" (abbreviation: nth-CASAM-N) for the practical, efficient, and exact computation of arbitrarily-high order sensitivities of responses to model parameters for systems that are also nonlinear in their underlying state functions. Such computations are not feasible with any other methodology. The application of the nth-CASAM-L and the nth-CASAM-N overcomes the so-called "curse of dimensionality" in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, thus revolutionizing all of the fields of activities which require accurate computation of response sensitivities. Since this monograph includes many illustrative, fully worked-out, paradigm problems, it can serve as a textbook or as supplementary reading for graduate courses in academic departments in the natural sciences and engineering.

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. There is an account of moment generating functions and their applications. The following three chapters are about branching processes, random walks, and continuous-time random processes such as the Poisson process. The final chapter is a fairly extensive account of Markov chains in discrete time. This second edition develops the success of the first edition through an updated presentation, the extensive new chapter on Markov chains, and a number of new sections to ensure comprehensive coverage of the syllabi at major universities.

This is the second edition of the comprehensive treatment of statistical inference using permutation techniques. It makes available to practitioners a variety of useful and powerful data analytic tools that rely on very few distributional assumptions. Although many of these procedures have appeared in journal articles, they are not readily available to practitioners. This new and updated edition places increased emphasis on the use of alternative permutation statistical tests based on metric Euclidean distance functions that have excellent robustness characteristics. These alternative permutation techniques provide many powerful multivariate tests including multivariate multiple regression analyses.

This book provides an overview of the latest developments in the field of risk analysis (RA). Statistical methodologies have long-since been employed as crucial decision support tools in RA. Thus, in the context of this new century, characterized by a variety of daily risks - from security to health risks - the importance of exploring theoretical and applied issues connecting RA and statistical modeling (SM) is self-evident. In addition to discussing the latest methodological advances in these areas, the book explores applications in a broad range of settings, such as medicine, biology, insurance, pharmacology and agriculture, while also fostering applications in newly emerging areas. This book is intended for graduate students as well as quantitative researchers in the area of RA.

This volume contains the papers presented at the meeting "Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling", held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17- 20, 2000. This is the fourth meeting on given marginals, showing that this topic has aremarkable interest. BRIEF HISTORY The construction of distributions with given marginals started with the seminal papers by Hoeffding (1940) and Fn!chet (1951). Since then, many others have contributed on this topic: Dall' Aglio, Farlie, Gumbel, Johnson, Kellerer, Kotz, Morgenstern, Marshali, Olkin, Strassen, Vitale, Whitt, etc., as weIl as Arnold, Cambanis, Deheuvels, Genest, Frank, Joe, Kirneldorf, Nelsen, Ruschendorf, Sampson, Scarsini, Tiit, etc. In 1957 Sklar and Schweizer introduced probabilistic metric spaces. In 1975 Kirneldorf and Sampson studied the uniform representation of a bivariate dis- tribution and proposed the desirable conditions that should be satisfied by any bivariate family. In 1991 Darsow, Nguyen and Olsen defined a natural operation between cop- ulas, with applications in stochastic processes. In 1993, AIsina, Nelsen and Schweizer introduced the notion of quasi-copula.

Matrix-analytic and related methods have become recognized as an important and fundamental approach for the mathematical analysis of general classes of complex stochastic models. Research in the area of matrix-analytic and related methods seeks to discover underlying probabilistic structures intrinsic in such stochastic models, develop numerical algorithms for computing functionals (e.g., performance measures) of the underlying stochastic processes, and apply these probabilistic structures and/or computational algorithms within a wide variety of fields. This volume presents recent research results on: the theory, algorithms and methodologies concerning matrix-analytic and related methods in stochastic models; and the application of matrix-analytic and related methods in various fields, which includes but is not limited to computer science and engineering, communication networks and telephony, electrical and industrial engineering, operations research, management science, financial and risk analysis, and bio-statistics. These research studies provide deep insights and understanding of the stochastic models of interest from a mathematics and/or applications perspective, as well as identify directions for future research.

This book showcases state-of-the-art advances in service science and related fields of research, education, and practice. It presents emerging technologies and applications in contexts ranging from healthcare, energy, finance, and information technology to transportation, sports, logistics, and public services. Regardless of its size and service, every service organization is a service system. Due to the socio-technical nature of service systems, a systems approach must be adopted in order to design, develop and deliver services aimed at meeting end users' utilitarian and socio-psychological needs alike. Understanding services and service systems often requires combining multiple methods to consider how interactions between people, technologies, organizations and information create value under various conditions. The papers in this volume highlight a host of ways to approach these challenges in service science and are based on submissions to the 2021 INFORMS Conference on Service Science.

Focussing on applications, this book covers a very broad range, including simple and complex univariate and multivariate density estimation, nonparametric regression estimation, categorical data smoothing, and applications of smoothing to other areas of statistics. It will thus be of particular interest to data analysts, as arguments generally proceed from actual data rather than statistical theory, while the "Background Material" sections will interest statisticians studying the field. Over 750 references allow researchers to find the original sources for more details, and the "Computational Issues" sections provide sources for statistical software that use the methods discussed. Each chapter includes exercises with a heavily computational focus based upon the data sets used in the book, making it equally suitable as a textbook for a course in smoothing.

Students and researchers in the health sciences are faced with greater opportunity and challenge than ever before. The opportunity stems from the explosion in publicly available data that simultaneously informs and inspires new avenues of investigation. The challenge is that the analytic tools required go far beyond the standard methods and models of basic statistics. This textbook aims to equip health care researchers with the most important elements of a modern health analytics toolkit, drawing from the fields of statistics, health econometrics, and data science. This textbook is designed to overcome students' anxiety about data and statistics and to help them to become confident users of appropriate analytic methods for health care research studies. Methods are presented organically, with new material building naturally on what has come before. Each technique is motivated by a topical research question, explained in non-technical terms, and accompanied by engaging explanations and examples. In this way, the authors cultivate a deep ("organic") understanding of a range of analytic techniques, their assumptions and data requirements, and their advantages and limitations. They illustrate all lessons via analyses of real data from a variety of publicly available databases, addressing relevant research questions and comparing findings to those of published studies. Ultimately, this textbook is designed to cultivate health services researchers that are thoughtful and well informed about health data science, rather than data analysts. This textbook differs from the competition in its unique blend of methods and its determination to ensure that readers gain an understanding of how, when, and why to apply them. It provides the public health researcher with a way to think analytically about scientific questions, and it offers well-founded guidance for pairing data with methods for valid analysis. Readers should feel emboldened to tackle analysis of real public datasets using traditional statistical models, health econometrics methods, and even predictive algorithms. Accompanying code and data sets are provided in an author site: https://roman-gulati.github.io/statistics-for-health-data-science/

A friendly and systematic introduction to the theory and applications. The book begins with the sums of independent random variables and vectors, with maximal inequalities and sharp estimates on moments, which are later used to develop and interpret decoupling inequalities. Decoupling is first introduced as it applies to randomly stopped processes and unbiased estimation. The authors then proceed with the theory of decoupling in full generality, paying special attention to comparison and interplay between martingale and decoupling theory, and to applications. These include limit theorems, moment and exponential inequalities for martingales and more general dependence structures, biostatistical implications, and moment convergence in Anscombe's theorem and Wald's equation for U--statistics. Addressed to researchers in probability and statistics and to graduates, the expositon is at the level of a second graduate probability course, with a good portion of the material fit for use in a first year course.

The book shows that the analytic combinatorics (AC) method encodes the combinatorial problems of multiple object tracking-without information loss-into the derivatives of a generating function (GF). The book lays out an easy-to-follow path from theory to practice and includes salient AC application examples. Since GFs are not widely utilized amongst the tracking community, the book takes the reader from the basics of the subject to applications of theory starting from the simplest problem of single object tracking, and advancing chapter by chapter to more challenging multi-object tracking problems. Many established tracking filters (e.g., Bayes-Markov, PDA, JPDA, IPDA, JIPDA, CPHD, PHD, multi-Bernoulli, MBM, LMBM, and MHT) are derived in this manner with simplicity, economy, and considerable clarity. The AC method gives significant and fresh insights into the modeling assumptions of these filters and, thereby, also shows the potential utility of various approximation methods that are well established techniques in applied mathematics and physics, but are new to tracking. These unexplored possibilities are reviewed in the final chapter of the book.

A Course in Mathematical and Statistical Ecology

Studies of evolution at the molecular level have experienced phenomenal growth in the last few decades, due to rapid accumulation of genetic sequence data, improved computer hardware and software, and the development of sophisticated analytical methods. The flood of genomic data has generated an acute need for powerful statistical methods and efficient computational algorithms to enable their effective analysis and interpretation. Molecular Evolution: a statistical approach presents and explains modern statistical methods and computational algorithms for the comparative analysis of genetic sequence data in the fields of molecular evolution, molecular phylogenetics, statistical phylogeography, and comparative genomics. Written by an expert in the field, the book emphasizes conceptual understanding rather than mathematical proofs. The text is enlivened with numerous examples of real data analysis and numerical calculations to illustrate the theory, in addition to the working problems at the end of each chapter. The coverage of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are in particular up-to-date, comprehensive, and authoritative. This advanced textbook is aimed at graduate level students and professional researchers (both empiricists and theoreticians) in the fields of bioinformatics and computational biology, statistical genomics, evolutionary biology, molecular systematics, and population genetics. It will also be of relevance and use to a wider audience of applied statisticians, mathematicians, and computer scientists working in computational biology.

This fairly self-contained work embraces a broad range of topics in analysis at the graduate level, requiring only a sound knowledge of calculus and the functions of one variable. A key feature of this lively yet rigorous and systematic exposition is the historical accounts of ideas and methods pertaining to the relevant topics. Most interesting and useful are the connections developed between analysis and other mathematical disciplines, in this case, numerical analysis and probability theory.

The text is divided into two parts: The first examines the systems of real and complex numbers and deals with the notion of sequences in this context. After the presentation of natural numbers as a subset of the reals, elements of combinatorics and a discussion of the mathematical notion of the infinite are introduced. The second part is dedicated to discrete processes starting with a study of the processes of infinite summation both in the case of numerical series and of power series.