Time Series: Theory and Methods is a systematic account of linear time series models and their application to the modelling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. The aim is to provide specific techniques for handling data and at the same time to provide a thorough understanding of the mathematical basis for techniques. Both time and frequency domain methods are discussed, but the book is written in such a way that either approach could be emphasized. The book intended to be a text for graduate students in statistics, mathematics, engineering, and the natural or social sciences. It contains substantial chapters on multivariate series and state-space models (including applications of the Kalman recursions to missing-value problems) and shorter accounts of special topics including long-range dependence, infinite variance processes and non-linear models. Most of the programs used in the book are available on diskettes for the IBM-PC. These diskettes, with the accompanying manual, ITSM: The Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC, also by Brockwell and Davis, can be purchased from Springer-Verlag.

This volume gives a systematic account of different problems of statistical diagnostics, i.e. the detection of changes in probabilistic characteristics of random processes and fields. Methods of solving such problems are proposed, based upon a unified nonparametric approach. Two general formalisations of the problems of statistical diagnostics are considered. Firstly, the detection of changes in arbitrary probabilistic distributions of random processes and fields, glued' from different stationary pieces: in other words, the detection of moments or areas of such glueing'; and secondly, the detection of statistical contaminations' in data (realisations of random fields or processes), or abnormal' observations with deviating statistical characteristics. A general approach to solving such problems is proposed, which is based upon the principle of reduction to certain standard situations and which does not use a priori data about probabilistic distributions. Much attention is paid to applications in such diverse areas as biology (EECs) and economics. Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers in statistics and random processes, as well as advanced and postgraduate students in the same disciplines, and to specialists in control theory, systems analysis, biomedical engineering, and econometrics.

This book offers a detailed review of perturbed random walks, perpetuities, and random processes with immigration. Being of major importance in modern probability theory, both theoretical and applied, these objects have been used to model various phenomena in the natural sciences as well as in insurance and finance. The book also presents the many significant results and efficient techniques and methods that have been worked out in the last decade. The first chapter is devoted to perturbed random walks and discusses their asymptotic behavior and various functionals pertaining to them, including supremum and first-passage time. The second chapter examines perpetuities, presenting results on continuity of their distributions and the existence of moments, as well as weak convergence of divergent perpetuities. Focusing on random processes with immigration, the third chapter investigates the existence of moments, describes long-time behavior and discusses limit theorems, both with and without scaling. Chapters four and five address branching random walks and the Bernoulli sieve, respectively, and their connection to the results of the previous chapters. With many motivating examples, this book appeals to both theoretical and applied probabilists.

A comprehensive approach to sample size determination and power with applications for a variety of fields

"Sample Size Determination and Power "features a modern introduction to the applicability of sample size determination and provides a variety of discussions on broad topics including epidemiology, microarrays, survival analysis and reliability, design of experiments, regression, and confidence intervals.

The book distinctively merges applications from numerous fields such as statistics, biostatistics, the health sciences, and engineering in order to provide a complete introduction to the general statistical use of sample size determination. Advanced topics including multivariate analysis, clinical trials, and quality improvement are addressed, and in addition, the book provides considerable guidance on available software for sample size determination. Written by a well-known author who has extensively class-tested the material, "Sample Size Determination and Power: "Highlights the applicability of sample size determination and provides extensive literature coveragePresents a modern, general approach to relevant software to guide sample size determination including CATD (computer-aided trial design)Addresses the use of sample size determination in grant proposals and provides up-to-date references for grant investigators

An appealing reference book for scientific researchers in a variety of fields, such as statistics, biostatistics, the health sciences, mathematics, ecology, and geology, who use sampling and estimation methods in their work, "Sample Size Determination and Power "is also an ideal supplementary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate-level courses in statistical sampling.

This book analyzes the impact of technology in emerging markets by considering conditions and the history of how it has changed the way of working and market development in such contexts. The book delves into key areas such as fintech enterprises, artificial intelligence, pension funds, stock markets, and energy markets though applied studies and research. This book is a useful read for practitioners and scholars interested in how technology has and continues to change the way in which development is defined and achieved, particularly in emerging markets.

This book is designed to provide valuable insight into how to improve the return on your investment when playing the lottery. While it does not promise that you will win more often, it does show you how to improve the odds of winning larger amounts when your numbers do come up. So, when you do win that million-dollar jackpot, you will be less likely to have to share it with anyone else.

Among the intriguing topics covered are the most popular (and the most foolish) combinations of numbers, why it is impossible to improve the odds of any legitimate lottery, how popular (and thus unprofitable) an attractive-looking ticket might be, why not to follow the suggested numbers from so-called "expert advisors" and why it is important to avoid winning combinations of past drawings. With this book and a little luck, the dream of winning millions might just come true.

This book provides robust analysis and synthesis tools for Markovian jump systems in the finite-time domain with specified performances. It explores how these tools can make the systems more applicable to fields such as economic systems, ecological systems and solar thermal central receivers, by limiting system trajectories in the desired bound in a given time interval. Robust Control for Discrete-Time Markovian Jump Systems in the Finite-Time Domain focuses on multiple aspects of finite-time stability and control, including: finite-time H-infinity control; finite-time sliding mode control; finite-time multi-frequency control; finite-time model predictive control; and high-order moment finite-time control for multi-mode systems and also provides many methods and algorithms to solve problems related to Markovian jump systems with simulation examples that illustrate the design procedure and confirm the results of the methods proposed. The thorough discussion of these topics makes the book a useful guide for researchers, industrial engineers and graduate students alike, enabling them systematically to establish the modeling, analysis and synthesis for Markovian jump systems in the finite-time domain.

Nonparametric statistics has probably become the leading methodology for researchers performing data analysis. It is nevertheless true that, whereas these methods have already proved highly effective in other applied areas of knowledge such as biostatistics or social sciences, nonparametric analyses in reliability currently form an interesting area of study that has not yet been fully explored.

"Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability" is focused on the use of modern statistical methods for the estimation of dependability measures of reliability systems that operate under different conditions. The scope of the book includes: smooth estimation of the reliability function and hazard rate of non-repairable systems; study of stochastic processes for modelling the time evolution of systems when imperfect repairs are performed; nonparametric analysis of discrete and continuous time semi-Markov processes; isotonic regression analysis of the structure function of a reliability system, and lifetime regression analysis.

Besides the explanation of the mathematical background, several numerical computations or simulations are presented as illustrative examples. The corresponding computer-based methods have been implemented using R and MATLAB(R). A concrete modelling scheme is chosen for each practical situation and, in consequence, a nonparametric inference procedure is conducted.

"Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability" will serve the practical needs of scientists (statisticians and engineers) working on applied reliability subjects.

This book is a rigorous but practical presentation of the techniques of uncertainty quantification, with applications in R and Python. This volume includes mathematical arguments at the level necessary to make the presentation rigorous and the assumptions clearly established, while maintaining a focus on practical applications of uncertainty quantification methods. Practical aspects of applied probability are also discussed, making the content accessible to students. The introduction of R and Python allows the reader to solve more complex problems involving a more significant number of variables. Users will be able to use examples laid out in the text to solve medium-sized problems. The list of topics covered in this volume includes linear and nonlinear programming, Lagrange multipliers (for sensitivity), multi-objective optimization, game theory, as well as linear algebraic equations, and probability and statistics. Blending theoretical rigor and practical applications, this volume will be of interest to professionals, researchers, graduate and undergraduate students interested in the use of uncertainty quantification techniques within the framework of operations research and mathematical programming, for applications in management and planning.

When this two-day meeting was proposed, it was certainly not conceived as a celebration, much less as a party. However, on reflection, this might have been a wholly appropriate gesture because geostatistical simulation came of age this year: it is now 21 years since it was first proposed and implemented in the form of the turning bands method. The impetus for the original development was the mining industry, principally the problems encountered in mine planning and design based on smoothed estimates which did not reflect the degree of variability and detail present in the real, mined values. The sustained period of development over recent years has been driven by hydrocarbon applications. In addition to the original turning bands method there are now at least six other established methods of geostatistical simulation. Having reached adulthood, it is entirely appropriate that geostatistical simulation should now be subjected to an intense period of reflection and assessment. That we have now entered this period was evident in many of the papers and much of the discussion at the Fontainebleau meeting. Many questions were clearly articulated for the first time and, although many ofthem were not unambiguously answered, their presentation at the meeting and publication in this book will generate confirmatory studies and further research.

Approach your problems from It isn't that they can't see the right end and begin with the solution. the answers. Then one day, It is that they can't see the perhaps you will find the problem. final question. G.K. Chesterton. The Scandal 'The Hermit Clad 1n Crane of Father Brown 'The Point of Feathers' in R. van Gulik's a Pin'. The Chinese Maze Murders. Growing specialisation and diversification have brought a host of monographs and textbooks on increasingly specialized topics. However, the "tree" of knowledge of mathematics and related fields does not grow only by putting forth new branches. It also happens, quite often in fact, that branches wich were thought to be completely disparate are suddenly seen to be related. Further, the kind and level of sophistication of mathematics applied in various sciences has changed drastically in recent years: measure theory is used (non-trivially) in regional and theoretical economics; algebraic geometry interacts with physics; the Minkowsky lemma, coding theory and the structure of water meet one another in packing and covering theory; quantum fields, crystal defects and mathematical programming profit from homotopy theory; Lie algebras are relevant to filtering; and prediction and electrical engineering can use Stein spaces. And in addition to this there are such new emerging subdisciplines as "experimental mathematics", "CFD" , "completely integrable systems", "chaos, synergetics and large-scale order", which are almost impossible to fit into the existing classification schemes. They draw upon widely different sections of mathematics.

In general terms, the shape of an object, data set, or image can be de fined as the total of all information that is invariant under translations, rotations, and isotropic rescalings. Thus two objects can be said to have the same shape if they are similar in the sense of Euclidean geometry. For example, all equilateral triangles have the same shape, and so do all cubes. In applications, bodies rarely have exactly the same shape within measure ment error. In such cases the variation in shape can often be the subject of statistical analysis. The last decade has seen a considerable growth in interest in the statis tical theory of shape. This has been the result of a synthesis of a number of different areas and a recognition that there is considerable common ground among these areas in their study of shape variation. Despite this synthesis of disciplines, there are several different schools of statistical shape analysis. One of these, the Kendall school of shape analysis, uses a variety of mathe matical tools from differential geometry and probability, and is the subject of this book. The book does not assume a particularly strong background by the reader in these subjects, and so a brief introduction is provided to each of these topics. Anyone who is unfamiliar with this material is advised to consult a more complete reference. As the literature on these subjects is vast, the introductory sections can be used as a brief guide to the literature."

Bayesian statistics is currently undergoing something of a renaissance. At its heart is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It is an approach that is ideally suited to making initial assessments based on incomplete or imperfect information; as that information is gathered and disseminated, the Bayesian approach corrects or replaces the assumptions and alters its decision-making accordingly to generate a new set of probabilities. As new data/evidence becomes available the probability for a particular hypothesis can therefore be steadily refined and revised. It is very well-suited to the scientific method in general and is widely used across the social, biological, medical, and physical sciences. Key to this book's novel and informal perspective is its unique pedagogy, a question and answer approach that utilizes accessible language, humor, plentiful illustrations, and frequent reference to on-line resources. Bayesian Statistics for Beginners is an introductory textbook suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners seeking to improve their understanding of the Bayesian statistical techniques they routinely use for data analysis in the life and medical sciences, psychology, public health, business, and other fields.

The last two decades have seen enormous developments in statistical methods for incomplete data. The EM algorithm and its extensions, multiple imputation, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo provide a set of flexible and reliable tools from inference in large classes of missing-data problems. Yet, in practical terms, those developments have had surprisingly little impact on the way most data analysts handle missing values on a routine basis.

Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data helps bridge the gap between theory and practice, making these missing-data tools accessible to a broad audience. It presents a unified, Bayesian approach to the analysis of incomplete multivariate data, covering datasets in which the variables are continuous, categorical, or both. The focus is applied, where necessary, to help readers thoroughly understand the statistical properties of those methods, and the behavior of the accompanying algorithms.

All techniques are illustrated with real data examples, with extended discussion and practical advice. All of the algorithms described in this book have been implemented by the author for general use in the statistical languages S and S Plus. The software is available free of charge on the Internet.

Presents compendium of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance. Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets. Includes comprehensive compilation of methods from model based, data driven to hybrid. Discusses benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy an uncertainty depending on the target application, type of asset and forecast performance expected. Contains toolset of methods and way of deployment aimed at versatile audience.

Introducing a novel approach to setting environmental pollution standards that allow for proper treatment of uncertainty and variation, this book surveys the forms of standards and proposes a new kind of "statistically verifiable ideal standard." Setting Environmental Standards includes: a current analysis regarding the treatment of uncertainty and variation in environmental standard setting a review of basic principles in standard setting, including costs, actions and effects, and benefits examples where uncertainty and variation have been well-treated in current practice as well as examples where clear deficiencies are apparent specific proposals for the future approach to setting environmental pollution standards - encompassing the anticipated elements of uncertainty and variability The issues discussed serve statisticians as well as those persons involved with environmental standards. Scientists in agencies responsible for setting standards, in organizations advising such agencies or working in industries subject to these standards, will find Setting Environmental Standards an invaluable reference.

This open access proceedings volume brings selected, peer-reviewed contributions presented at the Stochastic Transport in Upper Ocean Dynamics (STUOD) 2021 Workshop, held virtually and in person at the Imperial College London, UK, September 20-23, 2021. The STUOD project is supported by an ERC Synergy Grant, and led by Imperial College London, the National Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automatic Control (INRIA) and the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER). The project aims to deliver new capabilities for assessing variability and uncertainty in upper ocean dynamics. It will provide decision makers a means of quantifying the effects of local patterns of sea level rise, heat uptake, carbon storage and change of oxygen content and pH in the ocean. Its multimodal monitoring will enhance the scientific understanding of marine debris transport, tracking of oil spills and accumulation of plastic in the sea. All topics of these proceedings are essential to the scientific foundations of oceanography which has a vital role in climate science. Studies convened in this volume focus on a range of fundamental areas, including: Observations at a high resolution of upper ocean properties such as temperature, salinity, topography, wind, waves and velocity; Large scale numerical simulations; Data-based stochastic equations for upper ocean dynamics that quantify simulation error; Stochastic data assimilation to reduce uncertainty. These fundamental subjects in modern science and technology are urgently required in order to meet the challenges of climate change faced today by human society. This proceedings volume represents a lasting legacy of crucial scientific expertise to help meet this ongoing challenge, for the benefit of academics and professionals in pure and applied mathematics, computational science, data analysis, data assimilation and oceanography.

The present monograph is primarily an outgrowth of our own re search on certain aspects of Bayesian inference in finite population sampling. Finite population sampling has been an integral part of statistics since its beginning. The topic continues its impact in the theory and practice of statistics, especially for researchers in survey sampling. Inference for finite population sampling utilizes prior information either explicitly or implicitly. Bayesian inference makes explicit use of this information as part of the model. This is in striking con trast to design- based inference in survey sampling where prior knowledge is incorporated only as auxiliary information. On the other hand there is a elose relationship between the Bayesian ap proach and the superpopulation approach, although they differ in their foundational interpretations. Operationally, however, the dif ference is much less pronounced as many estimators obtained via superpopulation models are also obtainable as Bayes estimators, and vice versa. This monograph, does not aim to provide a complete up-to-date account of the Bayesian literature in finite population sampling. Rather, it treats the topics reflecting the authors' personal inter ests. Its main aim is to demonstrate that a variety of levels of prior information can be used in survey sampling in a Bayesian man ner. Situations considered range from a noninformative Bayesian justification of standard frequentist methods when the only prior information available is the belief in the exchangeablility of the units to a full-fledged Bayesian model."

Placing data in the context of the scientific discovery of knowledge through experimentation, Practical Data Analysis for Designed Experiments examines issues of comparing groups and sorting out factor effects and the consequences of imbalance and nesting, then works through more practical applications of the theory. Written in a modern and accessible manner, this book is a useful blend of theory and methods. Exercises included in the text are based on real experiments and real data.

Applied Linear Regression for Business Analytics with R introduces regression analysis to business students using the R programming language with a focus on illustrating and solving real-time, topical problems. Specifically, this book presents modern and relevant case studies from the business world, along with clear and concise explanations of the theory, intuition, hands-on examples, and the coding required to employ regression modeling. Each chapter includes the mathematical formulation and details of regression analysis and provides in-depth practical analysis using the R programming language.

'Et mm. ..., si j'avait su comment en revenir, One service mathematics has rendered the je n'y serais point all' '' human race. It has put common sense back Jules Verne where it belongs, on the topmost shelf IIClI.t to the dusty canister labelled 'discarded non- The series is divergent; therefore we may be sense'. able to do something with it. Eric T. Bell O. Heaviside Mathematics is a tool for thought. A highly necessary tool in a world where both feedback and non linearities abound. Similarly, all kinds of parts of mathematics serve as tools for other parts and for other sciences. Applying a simple rewriting rule to the quote on the right above one finds such statements as: 'One service topology has rendered mathematical physics .. .'; 'One service logic has rendered com puter science .. .'; 'One service category theory has rendered mathematics .. .'. All arguably true. And all statements obtainable this way form part of the raison d'etre of this series."

In the 50 years that have passed since Alfred Latka's death in 1949 his position as the father of mathematical demography has been secure. With his first demographic papers in 1907 and 1911 (the latter co authored with F. R. Sharpe) he laid the foundations for stable population theory, and over the next decades both largely completed it and found convenient mathematical approximations that gave it practical applica tions. Since his time, the field has moved in several directions he did not foresee, but in the main it is still his. Despite Latka's stature, however, the reader still needs to hunt through the old journals to locate his principal works. As yet no exten sive collections of his papers are in print, and for his part he never as sembled his contributions into a single volume in English. He did so in French, in the two part Theorie Analytique des Associations Biologiques (1934, 1939). Drawing on his Elements of Physical Biology (1925) and most of his mathematical papers, Latka offered French readers insights into his biological thought and a concise and mathematically accessible summary of what he called recent contributions in demographic analy sis. We would be accurate in also calling it Latka's contributions in demographic analysis."

This book is concerned with the processing of signals that have been sampled and digitized. The authors present algorithms for the optimization, random simulation, and numerical integration of probability densities for applications of Bayesian inference to signal processing. In particular, methods are developed for the computation of marginal densities and evidence, and are applied to previously intractable problems either involving large numbers of parameters or where the signal model is of a complex form. The emphasis is on the applications of these methods notably to the restoration of digital audio recordings and biomedical data. After a chapter which sets out the main principles of Bayesian inference applied to signal processing, subsequent chapters cover numerical approaches to these techniques, the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the identification of abrupt changes in data using the Bayesian piecewise linear model, and identifying missing samples in digital audio signals.

Comprising the major theorems of probability theory and the measure theoretical foundations of the subject, the main topics treated here are independence, interchangeability, and martingales. Particular emphasis is placed upon stopping times, both as tools in proving theorems and as objects of interest themselves. No prior knowledge of measure theory is assumed and a unique feature of the book is the combined presentation of measure and probability. It is easily adapted for graduate students familiar with measure theory using the guidelines given. Special features include: A comprehensive treatment of the law of the iterated logarithm * The Marcinklewicz-Zygmund inequality, its extension to martingales and applications thereof * Development and applications of the second moment analogue of Walds equation * Limit theorems for martingale arrays; the central limit theorem for the interchangeable and martingale cases; moment convergence in the central limit theorem * Complete discussion, including central limit theorem, of the random casting of r balls into n cells * Recent martingale inequalities * Cram r-L vy theorem and factor-closed families of distributions.