Doubt over the trustworthiness of published empirical results is not unwarranted and is often a result of statistical mis-specification: invalid probabilistic assumptions imposed on data. Now in its second edition, this bestselling textbook offers a comprehensive course in empirical research methods, teaching the probabilistic and statistical foundations that enable the specification and validation of statistical models, providing the basis for an informed implementation of statistical procedure to secure the trustworthiness of evidence. Each chapter has been thoroughly updated, accounting for developments in the field and the author's own research. The comprehensive scope of the textbook has been expanded by the addition of a new chapter on the Linear Regression and related statistical models. This new edition is now more accessible to students of disciplines beyond economics and includes more pedagogical features, with an increased number of examples as well as review questions and exercises at the end of each chapter.

2011 Reprint of the 1933 edition. Following the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression, Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called "debt-deflation," which rejected general equilibrium theory and attributed crises to the bursting of a credit bubble. According to the debt deflation theory, a sequence of effects of the debt bubble bursting occurs: 1. Debt liquidation and distress selling. 2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. 3. A fall in the level of asset prices. 4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. 5. A fall in profits. 6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. 7. Pessimism and loss of confidence. 8. Hoarding of money. 9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates. This theory was ignored in favor of Keynesian economics, partly due to the damage to Fisher's reputation from his overly optimistic attitude prior to the crash, but has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, particularly since the Late-2000s recession, and is now a main theory with which he is popularly associated.

2011 Reprint of 1920 Edition. Full facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition Software. According to Paul Volcker, The Economic Consequences of Peace marked the entrance into the world scene of the twentieth century's most influential economist. It should be in the library of every serious student of world affairs. Keynes attended the Versailles Conference as a delegate of the British Treasury and argued for a much more generous peace. The book was a best seller throughout the world and was critical in establishing a general opinion that the Versailles Treaty was a vindictive and counter-productive peace settlement. The book also helped to consolidate American public opinion against the treaty and against involvement in the League of Nations. The perception by much of the British public that Germany had been treated unfairly in turn was a crucial factor in public support for appeasement. The success of the book established Keynes' reputation as a leading economist especially on the left. When Keynes was a key player in establishing the Bretton Woods system in 1944, he remembered the lessons from Versailles as well as the Great Depression. The Marshall Plan after Second World War is a similar system to that proposed by Keynes in The Economic Consequences of the Peace.

2010 Reprint of 1920 Edition. According to Paul Volcker, The Economic Consequences of Peace marked the entrance into the world scene of the twentieth century's most influential economist. It should be in the library of every serious student of world affairs. Keynes attended the Versailles Conference as a delegate of the British Treasury and argued for a much more generous peace. The book was a best seller throughout the world and was critical in establishing a general opinion that the Versailles Treaty was a vindictive and counter-productive peace settlement. The book also helped to consolidate American public opinion against the treaty and against involvement in the League of Nations. The perception by much of the British public that Germany had been treated unfairly in turn was a crucial factor in public support for appeasement. The success of the book established Keynes' reputation as a leading economist especially on the left. When Keynes was a key player in establishing the Bretton Woods system in 1944, he remembered the lessons from Versailles as well as the Great Depression. The Marshall Plan after Second World War is a similar system to that proposed by Keynes in The Economic Consequences of the Peace.

"Extreme, synchronized rises and falls in financial markets occur infrequently but they do occur. The problem with the models is that they did not assign a high enough chance of occurrence to the scenario in which many things go wrong at the same time - the 'em perfect storm' scenario" (Business Week, September 1998). This book focuses on limiting theorems for copulae. Because joint dependences of extremal events is nowadays is key issue in risk management, it becomes crucial to get a better understanding of behavior of copulas in tails. The first chapter presents a survey on copulae, and possible applications in risk management. The following chapters present some canonical theorems for copulae, and the link between this approach and standard results on multivariate extreme is explained. A concluding chapter presents a survey on graphical procedures to represent copula densities (with proper fit) in tails.

This dissertation will discuss the uncertainty encountered in the daily operations of businesses. The concepts will be developed by first giving an overview of probability and statistics as used in our everyday activities, such as the basic principles of probability, univariate and multivariate statistics, data clustering and mapping, as well as time sequence and spectral analysis. The examples used will be from the oil and gas exploration industry because the risks taken in this industry are normally quite large and are ideal for showing the application of the various techniques for minimizing risk. Subsequently, the discussion will deal with basic risk analysis, spatial and time variations of risk, geotechnical risk analysis, risk aversion and how it is affected by personal biases, and how to use portfolios to hedge risk together with the application of real options. Next, fractal analysis and its application to economics and risk analysis will be examined, followed by some examples showing the change in the Value at Risk under Fractal Brownian Motions. Finally, a neural network application is shown whereby some of these risks and risk factors will be combined to forecast the best possible outcome given a certain knowledge base. The chapters will discuss: Basic probability techniques and uncertainty principles Analysis and diversification for exploration projects The value and risk of information in the decision process Simulation techniques and modeling of uncertainty Project valuation and project risk return Modeling risk propensity or preference analysis of exploration projects Application of fractals to risk analysis Simultaneous prediction of strategic risk and decision attributes using multivariate statistics and neural networks

Seminar paper from the year 2004 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1.00, University of Hamburg, course: Programm: MIBA, 33 entries in the bibliography, language: English, comment: Why was an index like the Human Development Index (HDI) established in the first place? That question and what the HDI really is about is the topic of this paper. The aim is to highlight its uniqueness and show how it differentiates from other measurement tools of human development. This assignment was done with secondary research only. For a topic that young there are efficient internet sources available which were sufficient enough to complete the assignment based on the oral presentation., abstract: Why was an index like the Human Development Index (HDI) established in the first place? That question and what the HDI really is about is the topic of this paper. The aim is to highlight its uniqueness and show how it differentiates from other measurement tools of human development. This assignment was done with secondary research only. For a topic that young there are efficient internet sources available which were sufficient enough to complete the assignment based on the oral presentation.

Copulas provide us with a tool for constructing multivariate distributions with arbitrary marginal distributions and a wide range of dependence structures. The aim of this book is to describe what the practitioner, or scientist, needs to know about copulas. Although the emphasis is on financial applications, the general theory is relevant for any multivariate setting. The outline of the book is as follows. Chapter 2 is a discussion of multivariate distribution functions that are useful for financial data. In chapter 3 we proceed with a discussion of commonly used dependence measures, and we highlight deficiencies of the correlation coefficient. We start chapter 4 by describing the properties a general function must satisfy in order to be a copula, and goes on by describing the properties of the most common copulas. In chapter 5 we discuss the problem of estimating the parameters in a copula, and in chapter 6 we review the recent goodness-of-fit procedures suggested in the literature. Chapter 7 is a short review of some of the main applications of copulas in relation to credit risk models.

This is a college textbook for the introductory statistics course primarily for business and economics students. The content includes descriptive statistics, probability, hypothesis testing, regression analysis, time series analysis, and statistical process control. The book incorporates many real-world examples and demonstrates statistical analysis using Microsoft Excel 2007.

Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Didactics, Economic Pedagogy, grade: 1,0, Berlin School of Economics, 96 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: The purpose of the present thesis is to examine if and to which extent cultures converge in an international business environment and if intercultural competence has a bearing on it. Therefore, theoretical and practical insights in the subject of culture, its implicit and explicit differences, as well as its measurements will be provided. Due to the fact that communication - as a major cultural attribute - is the most obvious level on which cultural differences are recognized, insights in the topic of cross-cultural and intercultural communication will be given. A thorough discussion of the concept of culture and communication is beyond the scope of this paper, but in what follows, an adequate overview of recognized and well-known researchers' theories and findings will be provided. Besides giving theoretical background knowledge, it will be examined whether the internationally defined soft skills of intercultural competence can be seen as an approach towards a universal interculture, likewise a universal communication. The topic of the present thesis will be illustrated by a case study, as well as researched and evaluated by a field study conducted at one of the most culturally diverse organization - the United Nations. Findings should only expose tendencies to confirm or disprove previous research findings in the field of cross-cultural comparative research and intercultural communication. It is not intended to present new empirical findings.

The major focus of this book is on the educational challenges and triumphs in Washington, DC. We examine education in Washington, DC because it is vital to know the conditions under which the residents of the most powerful city in the world are being trained in the academic arena, based on sound empirical evidence.

Master's Thesis from the year 2004 in the subject Business economics - Didactics, Economic Pedagogy, grade: 1,3, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), 82 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This study does not focus on the "powerhouses" of internationalisation but rather at the possibilities of an "average" university with up to now rather average numbers of foreign students and an average degree of overall internationalisation. The University of Bielefeld is taken as one example, of how internationalisation can be implemented, what the key processes of internationalisation are and which steps should be taken to foster internationalisation in the future. The first part of this study is having a look at what internationalisation of universities is and how the idea has developed historically. he paper then in the second part describes the main stakeholders and their role in the internationalisation of higher education. In part three and four the key drivers of internationalisation for universities in general and German institutions of higher education in particular are identified. Therefore this paper outlines first the general global trends in higher education in part three and than focuses on specific German and European developments in part four. Special attention will be drawn on the legal changes in the German system of higher education and the EU-harmonisation process. In Chapter five the competitive forces like new market entrants and substitutes will be looked at. The sixth part will describe the specific motivation for internationalisation at the UoB and sketch the environmental situation of the university like the history of the institution, geographical aspects, its profile etc. It then focuses on strategy formulated so far. Parts seven and eight examine the internationalisation efforts on the side of resource allocation and international programmes. The last chapter tries to summarize the strengths and weaknesses of the inte

The State of Working America, prepared biennially since 1988 by the Economic Policy Institute, includes a wide variety of data on family incomes, wages, taxes, unemployment, wealth, and poverty-data that enable the authors to closely examine the effect of the economy on the living standards of the American people. This edition, like the previous ones, exposes and analyzes the most recent and critical trends in the country.

Praise for previous editions of The State of Working America

"The State of Working America remains unrivaled as the most-trusted source for a comprehensive understanding of how working Americans and their families are faring in today's economy." Robert B. Reich

"It is the inequality of wealth, argue the authors, rather than new technology (as some would have it), that is responsible for the failure of America's workplace to keep pace with the country's economic growth. The State of Working America is a well-written, soundly argued, and important reference book." Library Journal

"If you want to know what happened to the economic well-being of the average American in the past decade or so, this is the book for you. It should be required reading for Americans of all political persuasions." Richard Freeman, Harvard University

"A truly comprehensive and useful book that provides a reality check on loose statements about U.S. labor markets. It should be cheered by all Americans who earn their living from work." William Wolman, former chief economist, CNBC's Business Week

"The State of Working America provides very valuable factual and analytic material on the economic conditions of American workers. It is the very best source of information on this important subject." Ray Marshall, University of Texas, former U.S. Secretary of Labor

"An indispensable work . . . on family income, wages, taxes, employment, and the distribution of wealth." Simon Head, New York Review of Books

"No matter what political camp you're in, this is the single most valuable book I know of about the state of America, period. It is the most referenced, most influential resource book of its kind." Jeff Madrick, author of The End of Affluence

"This book is the single best yardstick for measuring whether or not our economic policies are doing enough to ensure that our economy can, once again, grow for everybody." Richard A. Gephardt

"The best place to review the latest developments in changes in the distribution of income and wealth." Lester Thurow

"

The business world creates a variety of problematic challenges. "Exploring: Using 2 x 2 Matrices to Analyze Situations" demonstrates ways to target salient issues quickly, which in turn will seize the attention of senior executives. Ruth Williams, program director for a large multi-national corporation, explores techniques to show how to resolve difficult circumstances and provides an alternative to traditional reports generally used for explaining complex situations.

"Exploring" gives the average businessperson tools they need to learn how to assess situations "before" problems arise, bringing together a number of 2 x 2 matrix explorations, which all represent real situations. Implementing a 2 x 2 square, divided into four equal quadrants, Williams has formulated a system that is able to analyze a complex problem by breaking it into smaller units. These particulars will teach you how to observe and analyze in order to be prepared for actual times of crisis. You'll also learn how to assimilate information quickly to help you identify the key drivers of the situation.

With her extensive experience in assessing difficult situations by establishing the cause of the problems and identifying possible solutions, Williams offers a valuable resource for any business with "Exploring."