An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods

Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.

"Willful Ignorance" "The Mismeasure of Uncertainty" exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery.

"Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty "presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

The Oxford American Handbook of Clinical Medicine Second Edition covers all areas of internal medicine and surgery, offering up-to-date advice on examination, diagnostic testing, common procedures, and in-patient care. Students, residents, nurses, and clinicians will find the handbook to be a succinct, comprehensive, and affordable introduction to clinical medicine in the popular format of the Oxford American Handbooks in Medicine series. The second edition includes a thorough updating of diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines, updated information on key clinical trials, numerous new images, and new information on palliative care. This handbook has everything you need for on-the-spot access to evidence-based clinical management guidelines.

Computational and Evolutionary Analysis of HIV Molecular Sequences is for all researchers interested in HIV research, even those who only have a nodding acquaintance with computational biology (or those who are familiar with some, but not all, aspects of the field). HIV research is unusual in that it brings together scientists from a wide range of disciplines: clinicians, pathologists, immunologists, epidemiologists, virologists, computational biologists, structural biologists, evolutionary biologists, statisticians and mathematicians. This book seeks to bridge the gap between these groups, in both subject matter and terminology. Focused largely on HIV genetic variation, Computational and Evolutionary Analysis of HIV Molecular Sequences covers such issues as sampling and processing sequences, population genetics, phylogenetics and drug targets.

Over the past decade, radiological imaging tests - including CT scanning, MRI, PET, X-rays, ultrasound, fluoroscopy and other modalities - have become essential to the routine diagnostic process. While these modern advanced medical images and their striking anatomic detail have discovered underlying issues, they have also contributed to a false impression of infallibility. Unlike other straightforward diagnostic tests, such as the EKG or blood chemistry panel, radiological imaging tests are highly variable and complex, often yielding uncertain results, as well as frequent false-negatives and false-positives. The experts who interpret the images (the diagnostic radiologists) sometimes make mistakes: the practice of diagnostic radiology is a fallible, human endeavour, one involving complex perceptual, neuro-physiological and cognitive processes employed under a wide range of circumstances, and with a great deal of variability. Error and Uncertainty in Diagnostic Radiology opens the 'black box,' of medical imaging, exposing the remarkable inner workings of the process of diagnostic radiology-including how and why it can sometimes go tragically wrong. The occurrence of radiological error is shown to be fundamentally intertwined with the underlying high level of uncertainty known to be present in the diagnostic process. As a foremost expert on radiology quality and safety, Dr. Bruno provides insight into the various types of radiologist error, along with a conceptual framework for understanding error and uncertainty in radiology, leading to practical strategies for error prevention and for reducing the risk of harm to patients when errors inevitably occur. This book is essential for radiologists, members of the Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine, emergency physicians, medical educators, medical and hospice administrators, especially quality and safety officers, as well as malpractice insurance carriers.

The chapters of this book report cutting-edge research on molecular events in adiposity and type 2 diabetes, thus opening the way for innovative drug-based therapeutic strategies. It addresses all those who wish to keep in touch with recent developments in the field.

Chirurgische Sofortmassnahmen" by G. H. Willital an established classic in a new edition provides valuable orientation for every surgically active physician. The book covers all diseases and accidents which might make emergency surgical intervention necessary. The surgical procedures for each case are systematically structured and presented in a clear and concise manner for rapid consultation."

Legal action involving doctors, either as defendants or expert witnesses, has greatly increased over the past decade and few can now remain aloof from this aspect of their profession. Written by doctors (including five Council Members of the Medical Defence Union of Great Britain) and lawyers, this practical guide offers clear and comprehensive advice to all concerned. Part I discusses how to write medical reports, especially when consent is required or confidential information is involved. Part II covers contentious issues in various clinical specialties which repeatedly arise in litigation; well-known examples are cases involving whiplash injuries or perinatal brain damage. In Part III lawyers discuss the medico-legal problems of the solicitor's role, court testimony and medical negligence. This book is a valuable reference to all members of the medical profession. Lawyers, officials and others outside the medical profession who come into contact with medical litigation but have limited medical knowledge will find much helpful information.

Seit der Charakterisierung der genetischen Marker des familiAren medullAren SchilddrA1/4senkarzinoms bzw. der multiplen endokrinen Neoplasie Typ 2 bestehen verbesserte MAglichkeiten zur FrA1/4herkennung und kurativen Behandlung der hereditAren Formen dieser Tumoren. Durch Nachweis eines erhAhten Calcitonins als sensitiven und prAdiktiven Marker fA1/4r medullAre SchilddrA1/4senkarzinome kAnnen prinzipiell auch die sporadischen Formen frA1/4hzeitig erkannt und therapiert werden. Eine konsequente Anwendung der exzellenten diagnostischen Methoden sollte in Zukunft zu einer verbesserten Langzeitprognose dieser Karzinome beitragen. In der Praxis werden medullAre SchilddrA1/4senkarzinome jedoch hAufig erst im fortgeschrittenen Tumorstadium klinisch auffAllig. Um auch fA1/4r diese Patienten eine optimale Heilungschance zu erzielen, mA1/4ssen die bisherigen Diagnostik- und Therapieprotokolle optimiert und durch innovative Verfahren ergAnzt oder ersetzt werden. In dieser bisher einmaligen Zusammenstellung werden neue Aspekte der Genanalyse zur Diagnostik der hereditAren Karzinome, vielversprechende Methoden zur Lokalisationsdiagnostik von Metastasen sowie etablierte und experimentelle AnsAtze zur Therapie dieser TumorentitAt beleuchtet.

also occurs. New outbreaks of yellow fever have occurred in Colombia and Trinidad and new outbreaks of rift valley fever have occurred in Egypt. Chapter 6, Arenaviruses: The biochemical and physical properties have now been clar ified, and they show a remarkable uniformity in the various viruses constituting the group. The possibility that prenatal infection with LCM may result in hydrocephalus and chorioretinitis has been raised. Serologic surveys have suggested the existence of Lassa virus infection in Guinea, Central African Empire, Mali, Senegal, Cameroon, and Benin, in addition to earlier identification in Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Chapter 7, Coronaviruses: New studies have confirmed the important role of these viruses in common respiratory illnesses of children and adults. The viruses are now known to contain a single positive strand of RNA. About 50% of corona virus infections result in clinical illness. About 5% of common colds are caused by strain DC 43 in winter. Chapter 8, Cytomegalovirus: Sections on pathogenesis of CMV in relation to organ transplantation and mononucleosis, as well as sections on the risk and features of con genital infection and disease, have been expanded. There are encouraging preliminary results with a live CMV vaccine, but the questions of viral persistence and oncogenicity require further evaluation."

The recent sequencing of mycoplasma genomes has marked a turning point in the molecular genetic analysis of these microorganisms. Transcriptome and proteome analyses promise to provide the first definition of the total protein complement of a cell. The mycoplasma group includes the smallest known self-replicating organisms carrying the smallest number of genes. No wonder, therefore, that mycoplasmas have a special appeal to those interested in deciphering the minimal set of genes essential for life. Mycoplasma genomics facilitated better understanding of mycoplasma pathogenesis. Most impressive are the findings concerning the interaction of mycoplasmas with the immune system, macrophage activation, cytokine induction, mycoplasma cell components acting as superantigens, and autoimmune manifestations. The molecular definition of mycoplasmal adhesins responsible for mycoplasma attachment to host cells and evasion of the host immune system by antigenic variation of mycoplasmal surface components are other 'hot' subjects of research.Demonstration of the ability of mycoplasmas to enter host cells, cause fusogenic, apoptotic and oncogenic effects, as well as the possible association of mycoplasmas with arthritis, had their share in intensifying research on mycoplasma pathogenesis, bringing more researchers into the circle of those interested in this group of organisms. The present book is a comprehensive, up-to-date, multi-authored treatise.

In this new volume, Dr. Gregory Fanelli, of the Geisinger Medical Center and a reknowned expert on knee injuries, provides orthopaedic surgeons with an unprecedented review of the most recent and advanced knowledge needed to successfully diagnosis and treat PCL injuries. This comprehensive and practical volume covers everything from biomechanics and anatomy, evaluation and non-operative treatment to the latest surgical treatments of PCL injuries using arthroscopy, grafts and synthetic ligament substitutes. In addition, contributions from such well-known specialists as Drs. M. Malek, Roger Larson and Fred Flandery make this an essential text for every orthopaedic surgeon.