Risks are everywhere in the business world. "Mastering Risk Modelling" provides the busy financial manager with useful tips andpractical templates for assessing, applying and modelling risk and uncertainty in Excel. The book is designed specifically to be of help to you if you don't have time to start from scratch - it will improve your abilities in Excel and give you a library of basic examples that you can use as a basis for further development.

It covers:

- Review of model design

- Risk and uncertainty

- Credit risk

- Project finance

- Financial analysis

- Valuation

- Options

- Bonds

- Equities

- Value at risk

- Simulation

This second edition contains brand new chapters:

- Revised models

- More material on credit risk modelling e.g. portfolios, bankruptcy models

- Shows dual 2003/2007 Excel key strokes

- More theory especially on statistics in Excel

- Basic statistics in Excel - tools and methods

- Capacity to borrow and repay

- Finding optimum mix of risk and return

- Fixed income risk models

- Visual Basic approach

What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? 'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator 'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.

Since 2007, the repeated financial crises around the world have brought to the headlines financial practices and models considered to fuel the economic instabilities. Deep Dive into Financial Models: Modeling Risk and Uncertainty comes handy in demystifying the underlying quantitative finance concepts. With a limited use of mathematical formalism, the book explains thoroughly the models, their hypotheses, principles and other building blocks. A particular care is given to model limitations and their misuse for investment strategies, asset pricing, or risk management. Its reader-friendly nature provides readers with a head start in quantitative finance.

Examines the diverse uses and abuses of risk by social actors across a wide range of cultural, ethnic, and geographical locales. The introductory chapter by the two co-editors analyzes and contextualizes current scholarly debates on the social, cultural, and political construction of risk. It is followed by an overview on the anthropology of harm reduction that outlines an innovative framework for culturally informed risk analysis. The remaining nine chapters are organized into three sections, The Cultivation of Fear, Perceptions of Health, Safety, and Hazard: Risk Makers and Risk Takers, and Regulating Risk and the Public's Health. The book aims to address a set of questions of theoretical and practical importance to anthropologists, sociologists, public health scholars and professionals, and public policy advocates, among others. These questions include: How do individuals conceptualize and respond to risk? Can risk be a tool of empowerment for individuals and communities who define themselves as at-risk? How has risk figured recently in the production of health inequality? Has the social contract to provide care in its broadest sense expanded or contracted around issues of risk? Are risk and the imperative to adhere to risk warnings used by experts as a means of social control?

The volume's contributors, medical anthropologists and sociologists, provide rich, grounded ethnographic case material on the processes at work in everyday social life around the globe, as individuals and groups struggle to make saense of the health risks and inequities in their lives and communities. Authors address an array of urgent health concerns, ranging from food safety to environment, new technologies to infectious disease, in such contrasting locales as the US, Europe, South and Southeast Asia, and North Africa, and across diverse ethnicities and social classes.

This book offers a multidisciplinary perspective on perceived safety. It discusses the concept of safety from engineering, philosophy, and psychology angles, and considers various definitions of safety and its relationship to risk. Examining the categorization of safety and the measurement of risk, risk cultures, basic human needs and decision-making under uncertainty, the contributions demonstrate the practical implications and applications in areas such as health behavior, aviation and sports. Topics covered include: What is "safety" and is there "optimal safety" in engineering? Philosophical perspectives on safety and risk Psychological perspectives on perceived safety: social factors of feeling safe Psychological perspectives on perceived safety: zero-risk bias, feelings & learned carelessness Perception of aviation safety Intended for both practitioners and academic researchers, this book appeals to anyone interested in decision-making and the perception and establishment of safety.

Risk and reward are always foremost in the determination of investment decisions and business transactions. Advances in the area of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) have enabled the development of new business paradigms. Such paradigms involve transactions taking place between loosely connected parties, often totally or partially unknown to one another. One important concept required to ensure such transactions are successful is transactional risk. The importance of doing this has been demonstrated in recent financial crisis. This book is unique in simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of an event occurring and its financial impact and provides an integrated discussion of the process of transactional risk identification, assessment, evaluation, management and recording in these emerging domains. It provides a detailed and clear exposition of the importance of transactional risk before detailing for its assessment and evaluation. The scope of the book is theoretical and practical and as such it will have a broad market both within academia and industry. Specifically this book should be of primary interest to researchers, graduate students and practitioners in the area of developing business intelligence techniques and their application in various real world applications.

This book offers a cross disciplinary treatment of the rapidly growing field of integrated approaches in risk assessment in mountainous areas. All major aspects related to hazard and risk assessment, risk management, and governance are illustrated with a wide range of case studies. The first part of the book focuses on new techniques for assessing the natural hazards of different types of mass movements. State-of-the-art techniques for morphological characterization and monitoring of displacements are described. Computational advances are covered to explain the process systems and to quantify the hazards of fast and slow-moving landslides. In the second part of the book methodologies are included for assessing the impact of these natural hazards on the society in terms of risks. In this part, methodologies for defining the vulnerability of the elements at risk are shown and the use of run-out models for risk assessment of the dangerous rapid mass movements are evaluated. The third part of the book focuses on the response of society towards the problems of hazard and risk. It highlights the role of spatial planning, early warning systems and evacuation plans for risk management. It establishes practical thresholds for acceptable and tolerable risks and emphasizes the importance of education and communication to society. Audience The book is of interest to a wide range of experts from related disciplines, practitioners and stakeholders to demonstrate the importance of an integrated approach for all aspects of risks in mountainous areas.

One of the most critical issues facing supply chain managers in today's globalized and highly uncertain business environments is how to deal proactively with disruptions that might affect the complicated supply networks characterizing modern enterprises. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk presents a state-of the-art perspective on this particular issue. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk demonstrates that effective management of supply disruptions necessitates both strategic and tactical measures - the former involving optimal design of supply networks; the latter involving inventory, finance and demand management. It shows that managers ought to use all available levers at their disposal throughout the supply network - like sourcing and pricing strategies, providing financial subsidies, encouraging information sharing and incentive alignment between supply chain partners - in order to tackle supply disruptions. The editors combine up-to-date academic research with the latest operational risk management practices used in industry to demonstrate how theoreticians and practitioners can learn from each other. As well as providing a wealth of knowledge for students and professors who are interested in pursuing research or teaching courses in the rapidly growing area of supply chain risk management, Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk also acts as a ready reference for practitioners who are interested in understanding the theoretical underpinnings of effective supply disruption management techniques.

Top businesses recognise risk management as a core feature of their project management process and approach to the governance of projects. However, a mature risk management process is required in order to realise its benefits; one that takes into account the design and implementation of the process and the skills, experience and culture of the people who use it. To be mature in the way you manage risk you need an accepted framework to assess your risk management maturity, allowing you to benchmark against a recognised standard. A structured pathway for improvement is also needed, not just telling you where you are now, but describing the steps required to reach the next level. The Project Risk Maturity Model detailed here provides such an assessment framework and development pathway. It can be used to benchmark your project risk processes and support the introduction of effective in-house project risk management. Using this model, implementation and improvement of project risk management can be managed effectively to ensure that the expected benefits are achieved in a way that is appropriate to the needs of each organisation. Martin Hopkinson has developed The Project Risk Maturity Model into a robust framework, and this book allows you to access and apply his insights and experience. A key feature is a downloadable resource containing a working copy of the QinetiQ Project Risk Maturity Model (RMM). This will enable you to undertake maturity assessments for as many projects as you choose. The RMM has been proven over a period of 10 years, with at least 250 maturity assessments on projects and programmes with a total value exceeding AGBP60 billion. A case study in the book demonstrates how it has been used to deliver significant and measurable benefits to the performance of major projects.

Risk Culture is a practical volume devoted to the qualitative aspects of risk management, including those that should be firmly embedded in the corporate culture. Through descriptions, examples and case studies, the book analyzes weak and strong cultures and proposes a series of structural and behavioral actions to strengthen a company's culture.

Managing Towards Supply Chain Maturity takes a view of the crucial issues involved in supply chain management, namely risk, information and social capital management. Over the last dozen or so years, the outsourcing and offshoring processes have grown in importance. It is now more and more the case that enterprises concentrate on their key competences while transferring operations or specific tasks to other countries. Modern supply chains are becoming supply networks; hence there is a need for conscious and concerted implementation of methods to manage risk, information and social capital. These issues are very important for the efficiency and competitiveness of supply chains and are discussed in detail. The discussion includes the results of research and introduces the concept of risk, information and social capital management that will ensure supply chain excellence and maturity according to the Poirier's model that has been taken as the point of reference for this study. From a managerial point of view this study can play a significant role in determining the best risk and information management practices in the context of the outsourcing and offshoring of business processes.

When is it morally acceptable to expose others to risk? Most moral philosophers have had very little to say in answer to that question, but here is a moral philosopher who puts it at the centre of his investigations. Sven Ove Hansson shows why traditional moral theories are ill suited to deal with risk and uncertainty, and proposes new approaches that can do so much better. The book contains many examples that connect moral philosophy to the practical world of risk management in new ways. This is an important book for moral philosophers as it opens up a new area for ethical investigations. It is equally important for risk analysts and policy makers who need input from moral philosophy in order to deal with the difficult normative issues that arise in decision-making under risk and uncertainty.

The International Section on Machine and System Safety was founded in 1975 to deal with questions on occupational risks in this ?eld at the inter- tional level. It is a member of the Special Commission on Prevention of the International Social Security Association (ISSA). The Special Commission is a body within ISSA that focuses on work-related risks. It has 11 inter- tional Sections as members. ISSA was founded in 1927 with its headquarters in Geneva. It is working worldwide in over 150 countries with nearly 370 member institutions from all ?elds of social security. TheSection on Machine and System Safety, when it was founded, had its focus on machine safety, particularly on the ma- facturing of safe machinery, on assisting developing countries to be able to buy safe used machinery, and on delivering clear operating instructions. Our members and partners are: * institutions for safety and health at work; * insurance companies dealing with work-related risks; * research institutions; and * various enterprises, e.g. manufacturers, importers and users of machines and systems/installations. We thus bring together the experiences of our members and partners. The role of the operators soon grew in importance, and their capability for ha- ling machinery became an important factor for the safety and success of enterprises. The growing importance and complexity of handling different man-machine-environment situations created new challenges and led to - larging the Section's tasks to machine and system safety.

Epidemics know no borders and are often characterized by a high level of uncertainty, causing major challenges in risk governance. The author shows the emergence of global risk governance processes and the key role that the World Health Organization (WHO) plays within them.