Focusing on what actuaries need in practice, this introductory account provides readers with essential tools for handling complex problems and explains how simulation models can be created, used and re-used (with modifications) in related situations. The book begins by outlining the basic tools of modelling and simulation, including a discussion of the Monte Carlo method and its use. Part II deals with general insurance and Part III with life insurance and financial risk. Algorithms that can be implemented on any programming platform are spread throughout and a program library written in R is included. Numerous figures and experiments with R-code illustrate the text. The author's non-technical approach is ideal for graduate students, the only prerequisites being introductory courses in calculus and linear algebra, probability and statistics. The book will also be of value to actuaries and other analysts in the industry looking to update their skills.

Change in organizations can arise spontaneously, or it can begin in response to a planned process of change. Even planned change is not as predictable as one might like it to be; it is often partial or incomplete, or the results of change may not be what one hoped. The aspects of an organization that resist change can be vital to an organization's success, helping to keep it firm, stable, and robust. Why Organizational Change Fails aims to make change managers and OD consultants sensitive to signals of the robust part of an organization, helping them to see something different than they usually see: signs of change. The authors distinguish two aspects of stability in organisations: robustness and tenacity. Robustness is the ability of organisations to remain stable under changing conditions. Tenacity is the reaction of a robust system to planned change. Each of these aspects has its own unique qualities and value within organizations. In the book, the authors describe three aspects of robustness: social, cognitive and political. They also describe healthy and unhealthy forms. Tenacity is described in three patterns: bouncing back, smothering and calculating. Each chapter of the book is preceded by an essay written by a leading scientist designed to help provide real-world context for the process of change and offering insights for the reader on either side of the change equation.

Through its exploration of the spatial dimension of risk, this book offers a brand new approach to theorizing risk, and significant improvements in how to manage, tolerate and take risks. A broad range of risks are examined, including natural hazards, climate change, political violence, and state failure. Case studies range from the Congo to Central Asia, from tsunami in Japan and civil war affected areas in Sri Lanka to avalanche hazards in Austria. In each of these cases, the authors examine the importance and role of space in the causes and differentiation of risk, in how we can conceptualize risk from a spatial perspective and in the relevance of space and locality for risk governance. This new approach - endorsed by Ragnar Loefstedt and Ortwin Renn, two of the world's leading and most prolific risk analysts - is essential reading for those charged with studying, anticipating and managing risks.

Drawing on theory from anthropology, sociology, organisation studies and philosophy, this book addresses how the perception, communication and management of risk is shaped by culturally informed and socially embedded knowledge and experience. It provides an account of how interpretations of risk in society are conditioned by knowledge claims and cultural assumptions and by the orientationof actors based on roles, norms, expectations, identities, trust and practical rationality within a lived social world. By focusing on agency, social complexity and the production and interpretation of meaning, the book offers a comprehensive and holistic theoretical perspective on risk, based on empirical case studies and ethnographic enquiry. As a selection of Asa Boholm's publications throughout her career, along with a newly written introduction overviewing the field, this book provides a unified perspective on risk as a construct shaped by social and cultural contexts.This collection should be of interest to students and scholars of risk communication, risk management, environmental planning, environmental management and environmental and applied anthropology.

Drawing on theory from anthropology, sociology, organisation studies and philosophy, this book addresses how the perception, communication and management of risk is shaped by culturally informed and socially embedded knowledge and experience. It provides an account of how interpretations of risk in society are conditioned by knowledge claims and cultural assumptions and by the orientationof actors based on roles, norms, expectations, identities, trust and practical rationality within a lived social world. By focusing on agency, social complexity and the production and interpretation of meaning, the book offers a comprehensive and holistic theoretical perspective on risk, based on empirical case studies and ethnographic enquiry. As a selection of Asa Boholm's publications throughout her career, along with a newly written introduction overviewing the field, this book provides a unified perspective on risk as a construct shaped by social and cultural contexts.This collection should be of interest to students and scholars of risk communication, risk management, environmental planning, environmental management and environmental and applied anthropology.

Financial incentives have long been used to try to influence professional values and practices. Recent events including the global financial crisis and the BP Texas City refinery disaster have been linked to such incentives, with commentators calling for a critical look at these systems given the catastrophic outcomes. Risky Rewards engages with this debate, particularly in the context of the present and potential role of incentives to manage major accident risk in hazardous industries. It examines the extent to which people respond to financial incentives, the potential for perverse consequences, and approaches that most appropriately focus attention on major hazard risk. The book is based in part on an empirical study of bonus arrangements in eleven companies operating in hazardous industries, including oil, gas, chemical and mining.

This is a reprint of ISBN 978-0-901357-46-5 Disasters: learning the lessons for a safer world is both a tribute to the victims of past safety failures and a warning against complacency and cutting corners today. It also recognises the achievements of health and safety professionals and others in learning the lessons of past mistakes. As Trevor Kletz has written, "Someone has paid the 'tuition fess'. There is no need for you to pay them again." Illustrated throughout in colour, the book looks at over 90 accidents, incidents and safety failures. Some, like Aberfan, Chernobyl and Hillsborough, are known simply by a single place name. Others have now faded from our collective consciousness but still have important lessons for us today, such as the early fires, explosions and mining disasters that paved the way for better safety management. Disasters: learning the lessons for a safer world offers: a description of events from 1800 to the present day a wide range of incidents, from explosions and fires to floods, pollution and human and animal ill health information on the background to each incident, what happened and the lessons that were learnt an exploration of the politics of disaster and risk reduction

Climate change poses a risk to business operations and to markets, and a poor business response to this risk can lead to reputational damage, or worse. At the same time, climate change can bring opportunities for some businesses. In this addition to Gower's series of Short Guides to Business Risk, Professor Arnell, one of the world's leading experts in the field, reviews this critical area of risk posed to businesses and other organisations by climate change and considers how they can respond to this threat. A Short Guide to Climate Change Risk focuses on the impacts and consequences of climate change rather than on business use of energy or business and 'sustainability' issues. The author examines the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches to addressing these risks, with international case study examples. With chapters on the nature, science and politics of climate change, on the assessment and management of climate change risks, and recommendations for incorporating climate change risks into a Company Risk Management System, this concise guide serves the needs of business students and practitioners across a wide range of sectors, public and private.

This book will show you how to build a sustainable reputation risk management framework and how to handle your next reputation risk crisis. It will help you identify ways in which reputation risk can impact bottom line, and then show you how to set up a framework for turning that risk into an opportunity for good, sustainable business. Reputation risk is a strategic risk and a potentially material risk, all the more so in the 'age of hyper-transparency'. This needs to be clearly understood by both management and boards of directors so that the people tasked with reputation risk have the support they need to align their reputation risk management with business strategy and planning. The Reputation Risk Handbook provides a clear framework to identify, manage and resolve reputation risk, including: A clear description of what reputation risk is and how it fits within the pantheon of corporate and institutional risk and strategic management A practical process for creating early warning systems and on-going management and monitoring of reputation risks Techniques for aligning reputation risk management with business strategy and business planning Several case studies, including examples of when reputation risk management has gone wrong Examples of how to manage specific reputation risks successfully or deal with a reputation risk crisis. The Reputation Risk Handbook is not just for practitioners - those who manage risk and reputation directly - but for those who have oversight of risk management - namely boards, their committees and the c-suite. In addition to a framework for practitioners, the book provides specific suggestions for boards, including questions to ask management and what to look for within their organizations.

Beginning from the premise that psychology needs to be questioned, dismantled and new perspectives brought to the table in order to produce alternative solutions, this book takes an unusual transdisciplinary step into the activism of Black feminist theory. The author, Suryia Nayak, presents a close reading of Audre Lorde and other related scholars to demonstrate how the activism of Black feminist theory is concerned with issues central to radical critical thinking and practice, such as identity, alienation, trauma, loss, the position and constitution of individuals within relationships, the family, community and society. Nayak reveals how Black feminist theory seeks to address issues that are also a core concern of critical psychology, including individualism, essentialism and normalization. Her work grapples with several issues at the heart of key contemporary debates concerning methodology, identity, difference, race and gender. Using a powerful line of argument, the book weaves these themes together to show how the activism of Black feminist theory in general, and the work of Audre Lorde in particular, can be used to effect social change in response to the damaging psychological impact of oppressive social constructions. Race, Gender and the Activism of Black Feminist Theory will be of great interest to advanced students, researchers, political activist and practitioners in psychology, counselling, psychotherapy, mental health, social work and community development.

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link between knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

Domestic and foreign financial assets of all central banks and public wealth funds world wide are estimated to have reached more than 12 trillion US dollars in 2007. How do these institutions manage such unprecedented growth in their financial assets and how have they responded to the 'revolution' of risk management techniques during the last fifteen years? This book surveys the fundamental issues and techniques associated with risk management and shows how central banks and other public investors can create better risk management systems. Each chapter looks at a specific area of risk management, first presenting general problems and then showing how these materialize in the special case of public institutions. Written by a team of risk management experts from the European Central Bank, this much-needed survey is an ideal resource for those concerned with the increasingly important task of managing risk in central banks and other financial institutions.

Trust is an important factor in risk management, affecting judgements of risk and benefit, technology acceptance and other forms of cooperation. In this book the world's leading risk researchers explore all aspects of trust as it relates to risk management and communication. Drawing on a wide variety of disciplinary approaches and empirical case studies (on topics such as mobile phone technology, well-known food accidents and crises, wetland management, smallpox vaccination, cooperative risk management of US forests and the disposal of the Brent Spar oil drilling platform), this is the most thorough and up-to-date examination of trust in all its forms and complexities. The book integrates diverse research traditions and provides new insights into the phenomenon of trust. Factors that lead to the establishment and erosion of trust are identified. Insightful analyses are provided for researchers and students of environmental and social science and professionals engaged in risk management and communication in both public and private sectors. Related titles The Tolerability of Risk (2007) 978-1-84407-398-6

Governing environmental risk, particularly large-scale transboundary risks associated with climate change and pollution, is one of the most pressing problems facing society . This book focuses on a set of key questions relating to environmental regulation: How are activities regulated in a fragmented world - a world of nation states, regulators, domestic and international law and political contests - and one in which a range of actors, such as governments, corporations and NGOs act in order to influence regulations in specific policy areas? How are complex and trans-boundary environmental issues managed? What role does expert knowledge play in regulating this kind of issues? What give rules authority? In short, how do actors try to render an issue governable? Drawing on regulation theory, discourse theory and science and technology studies, and employing original research, the authors analyse the regulation of four kinds of complex and trans-boundary environmental issues: oil protection in the Baltic Sea, mobile phones and radiation protection, climate change adaptation and genetically modified crops. The outcomes include insights for policymakers, regulators and researchers into how dominant frames are constructed, legitimate actors are configured and authority is established. This in turn exposes the conditions for, and possibility of, developing regulation, making authoritative rules and shaping relevant knowledge in order to govern complex environmental risks.

1. Fully aligned to the NEBOSH International Certificate in Health and Safety (IGC) 2019 syllabus 2. An authoritative and helpful study guide for the c.30,000 students a year worldwide pursuing the IGC qualification 3. Written by renowned health and safety expert and former NEBOSH Vice Chairman Dr Ed Ferrett 4. Accessible text design, clearly mapping out key learning outcomes and revision points for easy learning and memorization 5. Companion guide to the 4th edition of the renowned International Health and Safety at Work textbook

International Health and Safety at Work has been specially written in simple English for the thousands of students who complete the NEBOSH International General Certificate in Health and Safety each year. Fully revised in alignment with the 2019 syllabus, this fourth edition provides students with all they need to tackle the course with confidence. Clear, easily accessible information is presented in full colour, with discussion of essential principles such as ILO and OSH conventions as well as legal frameworks from a range of countries. The book features practice questions and answers to test knowledge and increase understanding. International Health and Safety at Work remains the most effective tool for those working to fit international health and safety standards to local needs and practice.

This book provides a perspective on a number of financial modelling analytics and risk management. The book begins with extensive outline of GLM estimation techniques combined with the proof of its fundamental results. Applications of static and dynamic models provide a unified approach to the estimation of nonlinear risk models. The book then examines the definition of risks and their management, with particular emphasis on the importance of bi-modal distributions for financial regulation. Chapters also cover the implications of stress testing and the noncyclical CAR (Capital Adequacy Rule). The next section highlights financial modelling analytic approaches and techniques including an overview of memory based financial models, spanning non-memory models, long run and short memory. Applications of these models are used to highlight their variety and their importance to Financial Analytics. Subsequent chapters offer an extensive overview of multi-fractional models and their important applications to Asset price modeling (from Fractional to Multi-fractional Processes), and a look at the binomial pricing model by discussing the effects of memory on the pricing of asset prices. The book concludes with an examination of an algorithmic future perspective to real finance.

The chapters in "Future Perspectives in Risk Models and Finance" are concerned with both theoretical and practical issues. Theoretically, financial risks models are models of certainty, based on information and rules that are both available and agree to by their user. Empirical and data finance however, has provided a bridge between theoretical constructs risks models and the empirical evidence that these models entail. Numerous approaches are then used to model financial risk models, emphasizing mathematical and stochastic models based on the fundamental theoretical tenets of finance and others departing from the fundamental assumptions of finance. The underlying mathematical foundations of these risks models provide a future guideline for risk modeling. Both static and dynamic risk models are then considered. The chapters in this book provide selective insights and developments, that can contribute to a greater understanding the complexity of financial modelling and its ability to bridge financial theories and their practice. Risk models are models of uncertainty, and therefore all risk models are an expression of perceptions, priorities, needs and the information we have. In this sense, all risks models are complex hypotheses we have constructed and based on what we have or believe . Risk models are then challenged by their definition, are risk definition defining in fact prospective risks? By their estimation, what data can we apply to estimate risk processes and how can we do so? How should we use the data and the models at hand for useful and constructive end. "

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

Through its exploration of the spatial dimension of risk, this book offers a brand new approach to theorizing risk, and significant improvements in how to manage, tolerate and take risks. A broad range of risks are examined, including natural hazards, climate change, political violence, and state failure. Case studies range from the Congo to Central Asia, from tsunami in Japan and civil war affected areas in Sri Lanka to avalanche hazards in Austria. In each of these cases, the authors examine the importance and role of space in the causes and differentiation of risk, in how we can conceptualize risk from a spatial perspective and in the relevance of space and locality for risk governance. This new approach endorsed by Ragnar L fstedt and Ortwin Renn, two of the world's leading and most prolific risk analysts is essential reading for those charged with studying, anticipating and managing risks.

Why are vast sums spent on controlling some risks but not others? Is there any logic to the techniques we use in risk regulation? These are key questions explored in The Government of Risk. This book exposes the components of risk regulation systems and examines their interaction and explanation. The approach employed is of a high policy relevance as well as of considerable theoretical importance.

People Risk Management provides unique depth to a topic that has garnered intense interest in recent years. Based on the latest thinking in corporate governance, behavioural economics, human resources and operational risk, people risk can be defined as the risk that people do not follow the organization's procedures, practices and/or rules, thus deviating from expected behaviour in a way that could damage the business's performance and reputation. From fraud to bad business decisions, illegal activity to lax corporate governance, people risk - often called conduct risk - presents a growing challenge in today's complex, dispersed business organizations. Framed by corporate events and challenges and including case studies from the LIBOR rate scandal, the BP oil spill, Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland and Enron, People Risk Management provides best-practice guidance to managing risks associated with the behaviour of both employees and those outside a company. It offers practical tools, real-world examples, solutions and insights into how to implement an effective people risk management framework within an organization.

Highly practical and useful for practitioners - cuts through a highly technical and complex subject in a useable and easy to follow way but without 'dumbing down'. Focuses on the facilitation of risk management, an area that is glossed over or simply ignored in other books on risk management. Brand new chapters on virtual facilitation and the role of group bias in the assessment of risk.

This book aims to encourage a more reflective, multidisciplinary approach to public safety, and the 'reenfranchisement' of those affected by this new phenomenon. Over the past decade health and safety has become a major issue of public interest. There are countless stories of health and safety activities interfering with public life, preventing some beneficial activity from taking place - even creating absurd or dangerous situations. On the one hand, risk assessment, properly conducted, is highly beneficial - it saves lives and prevents injuries. But on the other, it can damage public life. Why has this come about, and does it have to be like that? The authors examine the origins of the problem, look critically at the tools used by safety assessors and their underlying assumptions, and consider important differences between public life and industry (where the approaches largely originated). They illuminate the whole with an analysis of legal requirements, attitudes of stakeholders, and recent research on risk perception and decision making. The result is a profound and important analysis of risk and safety culture and a framework for managing public safety more effectively.

Engineering systems and products are an important element of the world economy and each year billions of dollars are spent to develop, manufacture, operate, and maintain systems and products around the globe. Because of this, global competition is requiring reliability professionals to work closely with other departments involved in engineering development during the product design and manufacturing phase. Applied Reliability for Engineers is an attempt to meet the need for a single volume that addresses a wide range of applied reliability topics. The material is treated in such a manner that the reader will require no previous knowledge to understand the text. The sources of most of the information presented are given in a reference section at the end of each chapter. At appropriate places, the book contains examples along with their solutions. At the end of each chapter there are numerous problems to test reader comprehension. This volume is thus suitable for use as a textbook as well as for reference. Applied Reliability for Engineers is useful to design professionals, system engineers, reliability specialists, graduate and senior undergraduate students, researchers and instructors of reliability engineering, and engineers-at-large.

Bridging an identified gap between research and practice in the domain of risk and organizational learning with respect to human/organizational factors and organizational behaviour, this book highlights the common and recurring threads in contributory factors to accident causation. Based on an extensive research project, it investigates how shipping companies as organizations learn from, filter and give credence/acceptability to differing risk perceptions and how this influences the work culture with special regard to group/team dynamics and individual motivation. The work is presented in the context of the literature regarding conceptual links between risk and the theoretical and operational themes of organizational learning, and in light of interviewees' comments. The themes include processes and structures of knowledge acquisition, information interpretation and distribution, organizational memory and change/adaptation and also levels of learning. The book concludes by discussing some practical implications of the research carried out in various maritime contexts and gives recommendations for the industry and other stakeholders.