Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance, examines the empirical behavior of corporate default risk. A new and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das, Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to provide access to the latter for those less focused on the mathematical foundations.
A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources of default correlation, which are particularly important to include when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default," a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.

A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again.
In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.

Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that is countercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against market crashes. * Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measure proven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a more accurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles * Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust approaches to calculating risk capital * Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance of practical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactive Excel spreadsheets * Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based on the author s firsthand experience as a veteran financial risk analyst

Conduct risk is at the core of behavioural regulation, a new approach to regulating financial services, whose new agencies and public prosecutors have spread rapidly across the world. Its prosecutors intervene assertively to challenge financial service providers to show clear evidence of a new customer-centric approach, which understands and responds to the hidden drivers of customer behaviour. They use their unprecedented powers to levy very large fines and even to imprison wrongdoers - often for not taking precautions rather than for any active wrongdoing. Conduct Risk Management is a tool for recognizing, acting on, and predicting conduct risk impacts in regulated business. Conduct Risk Management sees beyond econometric and other 'box-ticking' traditions of risk management. Whilst protecting senior managers, it helps all staff to make positive use of conduct risk to promote behaviour the regulator will accept as 'good', as good behaviour is good business. The new conduct regulations personally affect every manager in financial services, and their suppliers, with new regulations making senior managers liable to imprisonment for failures in organizational conduct. Conduct Risk Management sets out plainly what practitioners need to know to understand the regulator's intentions, to prove compliance, protect competitiveness and maintain licence to operate.

This book offers a practical solution for every organization that needs to monitor the effectiveness of their risk management. Written by a practising chief risk officer, Risk Maturity Models enables you to build confidence in your organization's risk management process through a tailored risk maturity model that lends itself to benchmarking. This is a management tool that is easy to design, practical and powerful, which can baseline and self-improve the maturity capabilities needed to deliver ERM benefits over time. This book guides the reader through comparing and tailoring a wealth of existing models, methods and reference standards and codes (such as ISO 31000 and COSO ERM). Covering 60 risk-related maturity models in clear comparison format, it helps risk professionals to select the approach best suited to their circumstances, and even design their own model. Risk Maturity Models provides focused messages for the risk management function, the internal audit function, and the Board. Combining proven practice and insight with realistic practitioner scenarios, this is essential reading for every risk, project, audit and board professional who wants to move their organization up the risk maturity curve.

This publication examines risks from flooding and earthquakes in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region. It assesses the protection gap and identifies ways of strengthening financing. CAREC member countries face growing levels of disaster risk without sufficient financial protection. Regional cooperation can help narrow the protection gap and increase the financing available for quick responses to disaster events. This publication explores the current approach to disaster risk finance in each CAREC member state to identify opportunities to strengthen financing arrangements. It aims to inform the design of a regional disaster risk transfer facility.

This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments of product design. It discusses how business and government can work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on environmental studies for engineering and applied science students.

Tourism destinations are traditionally dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises that provide a wide range of products to tourists such as accommodation, travel services, transportation, recreation and entertainment, and food and beverage services. New knowledge and global risks have emerged, and small and medium-sized tourism enterprises (SMTEs) are now highly vulnerable. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the whole world and caused a change in the tourism paradigm. Many SMTEs around the world have been severely affected by the need to completely shut down their activities for months, and expectations for recovery in the medium term are not optimistic. SMTEs do not have the capacity and increased resources-financial, human, operational-of large companies to prepare for crisis contingencies (planning) and respond to the challenges they face. They simply do not have the resources or knowledge for risk analysis and the creation of crisis teams or plans. This is an area of growing importance and concern, both in the public and private sectors, where specific research and more in-depth knowledge are needed. Risk, Crisis, and Disaster Management in Small and Medium-Sized Tourism Enterprises connects research in the field of crisis management with the risks affecting small and medium-sized tourism enterprises. The book presents prevailing research on SME-related planning, response, and recovery during crisis situations, further propelling much-needed literature on these challenges in today's tourism industry. The chapters cover important topics such as terrorism threats, disaster management, resilient strategies, pandemic management, and risk analysis. The target audience of this book will be composed of professionals working in the tourism and hospitality industries, restaurateurs, travel agencies, hotel executives, directors, managers, crisis and risk planners, policymakers, government officials, researchers, and academicians who are interested in the threats to tourism businesses and how small and medium-sized enterprises can manage and navigate these risks.

Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management contains the papers presented at the 20th European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual conference in Troyes, France, in September 2011. The books covers a wide range of topics, including: Accident and Incident Investigation; Bayesian methods; Crisis and Emergency Management; Decision Making under Risk; Dynamic Reliability; Fault Diagnosis, Prognosis and System Health Management; Fault Tolerant Control and Systems; Human Factors and Human Reliability; Maintenance Modelling and Optimisation; Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety; Occupational Safety; Quantitative Risk Assessment; Reliability and Safety Data Collection and Analysis; Risk and Hazard Analysis; Risk Governance; Risk Management; Safety Culture and Risk Perception; Structural Reliability and Design Codes; System Reliability Analysis; Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis. Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management will be of interest to academics and professionals working in a wide range of scientific, industrial and governmental sectors, including: Aeronautics and Aerospace; Chemical and Process Industry; Civil Engineering; Critical Infrastructures; Energy; Information Technology and Telecommunications; Land Transportation; Manufacturing; Maritime Transportation; Mechanical Engineering; Natural Hazards; Nuclear Industry; Offshore Industry; Policy Making and Public Planning.