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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory > Risk assessment
Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right
risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10
articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review
articles and selected the most important ones to help your company
make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.
This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk
management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and
tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace
uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best
practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your
organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge
Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company
This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New
Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build
Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei
Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management,"
by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel;
"From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable
Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt,
and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?:
Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S.
Day; "Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by
Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century
Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to
Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim;
"Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert
and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and
Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph
E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.
People Risk Management provides unique depth to a topic that has
garnered intense interest in recent years. Based on the latest
thinking in corporate governance, behavioural economics, human
resources and operational risk, people risk can be defined as the
risk that people do not follow the organization's procedures,
practices and/or rules, thus deviating from expected behaviour in a
way that could damage the business's performance and reputation.
From fraud to bad business decisions, illegal activity to lax
corporate governance, people risk - often called conduct risk -
presents a growing challenge in today's complex, dispersed business
organizations. Framed by corporate events and challenges and
including case studies from the LIBOR rate scandal, the BP oil
spill, Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland and Enron, People
Risk Management provides best-practice guidance to managing risks
associated with the behaviour of both employees and those outside a
company. It offers practical tools, real-world examples, solutions
and insights into how to implement an effective people risk
management framework within an organization.
To meet the needs of today, engineered products and systems are an
important element of the world economy, and each year billions of
dollars are spent to develop, manufacture, operate, and maintain
various types of products and systems around the globe. This book
integrates and combines three of those topics to meet today's needs
for the engineers working in these fields. This book provides a
single volume that considers reliability, maintainability, and
safety when designing new products and systems. Examples along with
their solutions are placed at the end of each chapter to test
readers' comprehension. The book is written in a manner that
readers do not need any previous knowledge of the subject, and many
references are provided. This book is also useful to many people,
including design engineers, system engineers, reliability
specialists, safety professionals, maintainability engineers,
engineering administrators, graduate and senior undergraduate
students, researchers, and instructors.
When faced with a 'human error' problem, you may be tempted to ask
'Why didn't these people watch out better?' Or, 'How can I get my
people more engaged in safety?' You might think you can solve your
safety problems by telling your people to be more careful, by
reprimanding the miscreants, by issuing a new rule or procedure and
demanding compliance. These are all expressions of 'The Bad Apple
Theory' where you believe your system is basically safe if it were
not for those few unreliable people in it. Building on its
successful predecessors, the third edition of The Field Guide to
Understanding 'Human Error' will help you understand a new way of
dealing with a perceived 'human error' problem in your
organization. It will help you trace how your organization juggles
inherent trade-offs between safety and other pressures and
expectations, suggesting that you are not the custodian of an
already safe system. It will encourage you to start looking more
closely at the performance that others may still call 'human
error', allowing you to discover how your people create safety
through practice, at all levels of your organization, mostly
successfully, under the pressure of resource constraints and
multiple conflicting goals. The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human
Error' will help you understand how to move beyond 'human error';
how to understand accidents; how to do better investigations; how
to understand and improve your safety work. You will be invited to
think creatively and differently about the safety issues you and
your organization face. In each, you will find possibilities for a
new language, for different concepts, and for new leverage points
to influence your own thinking and practice, as well as that of
your colleagues and organization. If you are faced with a 'human
error' problem, abandon the fallacy of a quick fix. Read this book.
Enterprise Risk Management: Advances on its Foundation and Practice
relates the fundamental enterprise risk management (ERM) concepts
and current generic risk assessment and management principles that
have been influential in redefining the risk field over the last
decade. It defines ERM with a particular focus on understanding the
nexus between risk, uncertainty, knowledge and performance. The
book argues that there is critical need for ERM concepts,
principles and methods to adapt to the latest and most influential
risk management developments, as there are several issues with
outdated ERM theories and practices; problems include the inability
to effectively and systematically balance both opportunity and
downside performance, or relying too much on narrow
probability-based perspectives for risk assessment and
decision-making. It expands traditional loss-based risk principles
into new and innovative performance-risk frameworks, and presents
fundamental risk principles that have recently been developed by
the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). All relevant statistical and
risk concepts are clearly explained and interpreted using minimal
mathematical notation. The focus of the book is centered around
ideas and principles, more than technicalities. The book is
primarily intended for risk professionals, researchers and graduate
students in the fields of engineering and business, and should also
be of interest to executive managers and policy makers with some
background in quantitative methods such as statistics.
The Environmental Management Revision Guide: For the NEBOSH
Certificate in Environmental Management is the perfect revision aid
for students preparing to take their NEBOSH Certificate in
Environmental Management. As well as being a handy companion volume
to Brian Waters' NEBOSH-endorsed textbook Introduction to
Environmental Management, it will also serve as a useful
aide-memoire for those in environmental management roles. The book
aims to: Provide practical revision guidance and strategies for
students Highlight the key information for each learning outcome of
the current NEBOSH syllabus Give students opportunities to test
their knowledge based on NEBOSH style questions and additional
exercises Provide details of guidance documents publically
available that students will be able to refer to. The revision
guide is fully aligned to the current NEBOSH syllabus, providing
complete coverage in bite-sized chunks, helping students to learn
and memorise the most important topics. Throughout the book, the
guide refers back to the Introduction to Environmental Management,
helping students to consolidate their learning.
A remarkable look at how the growth, technology, and politics of
high-frequency trading have altered global financial markets In
today's financial markets, trading floors on which brokers buy and
sell shares face-to-face have increasingly been replaced by
lightning-fast electronic systems that use algorithms to execute
astounding volumes of transactions. Trading at the Speed of Light
tells the story of this epic transformation. Donald MacKenzie shows
how in the 1990s, in what were then the disreputable margins of the
US financial system, a new approach to trading-automated
high-frequency trading or HFT-began and then spread throughout the
world. HFT has brought new efficiency to global trading, but has
also created an unrelenting race for speed, leading to a
systematic, subterranean battle among HFT algorithms. In HFT, time
is measured in nanoseconds (billionths of a second), and in a
nanosecond the fastest possible signal-light in a vacuum-can travel
only thirty centimeters, or roughly a foot. That makes HFT
exquisitely sensitive to the length and transmission capacity of
the cables connecting computer servers to the exchanges' systems
and to the location of the microwave towers that carry signals
between computer datacenters. Drawing from more than 300 interviews
with high-frequency traders, the people who supply them with
technological and communication capabilities, exchange staff,
regulators, and many others, MacKenzie reveals the extraordinary
efforts expended to speed up every aspect of trading. He looks at
how in some markets big banks have fought off the challenge from
HFT firms, and how exchanges sometimes engineer technical systems
to favor certain types of algorithms over others. Focusing on the
material, political, and economic characteristics of high-frequency
trading, Trading at the Speed of Light offers a unique glimpse into
its influence on global finance and where it could lead us in the
future.
Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard
risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing
strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to
natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts,
this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and
uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core
statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable
across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of
sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the
practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides
detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding
chapters address the wider societal context of risk management.
This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and
professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science,
risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will
be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
This highly original book aims to broaden the discussion about
risk, the management of risk and regulation, especially in the
financial industry. By using terms of the philosopher Jacques
Derrida, Peter Pelzer employs philosophical concepts to enrich the
understanding of what risk is about and what is necessarily
excluded in contemporary risk management.
A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology
The Failure of Risk Management provides effective
solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods.
Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative
analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things
worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure
performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective
application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws
propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government,
and the general public. This book provides expert examination of
essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and
evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in
quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as
probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy
of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications.
Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author
Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world
examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management
practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated
data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative
statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management
issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify
deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take
appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk
analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate
quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new
developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk
analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety,
banking and finance, and many other public and private
institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and
How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy
makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.
This comprehensive, yet accessible, guide to enterprise risk
management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed
to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal
and external contexts with which risk management must be carried
out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative
techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks.
This new edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect new
legislation and the creation of the Financial Conduct Authority and
the Prudential Regulation Authority. It includes new content on
Bayesian networks, expanded coverage of Basel III, a revised
treatment of operational risk and a fully revised index. Over 100
diagrams are used to illustrate the range of approaches available,
and risk management issues are highlighted with numerous case
studies. This book also forms part of the core reading for the UK
actuarial profession's specialist technical examination in
enterprise risk management, ST9.
In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do
not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to
assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it
addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the
evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of
risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second
edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under
Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant
changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the
text and the book features several new areas of expansion including
five new chapters. The book's simple and straightforward
style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk
analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that
often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of
risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a
straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to
empower professionals in any discipline to become risk
practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new
chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector
interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management
Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment
tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk
science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new
chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for
helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus
of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk
process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis
As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want
to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as
students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a
discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is
accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the
creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free
student version of Palisade Corporation's Decision Tools Suite
software are available with the purchase of this book. A less
detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk
management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in
Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second
Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
Since the mid-1990s risk management has undergone a dramatic
expansion in its reach and significance, being transformed from an
aspect of management control to become a benchmark of good
governance for banks, hospitals, schools, charities and many other
organizations. Numerous standards for risk management practice have
been produced by a variety of transnational organizations. While
these many designs and blueprints are accompanied by ideals of
enterprise, value production, and good governance, it is argued
that the rise of risk management has also coincided with an
intensification of auditing and control processes. The legalization
and bureacratization of organizational life has increased because
risk management has created new demands for proof and evidence of
action. In turn, these demands have generated new risks to
reputation.
In short, this important book traces the rise of the managerial
concept of risk and the different logics and values which underpin
it, showing that it has much less to do with real dangers and
opportunities than might be thought, and more to do with
organizational accountability and legitimacy.
Health and Safety: Risk Management is the clearest and most
comprehensive book on risk management available today. This newly
revised fifth edition takes into account new developments in
legislation, standards and good practice. ISO 45001, the
international health and safety management system standard, is
given comprehensive treatment, and the latest ISO 9004 and ISO
19011 have also been addressed. The book is divided into four main
parts. Part 1.1 begins with a basic introduction to the techniques
of health and safety risk management and continues with a
description of ISO 45001. Part 1.2 covers basic human factors
including how the sense organs work and the psychology of the
individual. Part 2.1 deals with more advanced techniques of risk
management including advanced incident investigation, audit and
risk assessment, and Part 2.2 covers a range of advanced human
factors topics including human error and decision making. This
authoritative treatment of health and safety risk management is
essential reading for both students working towards degrees,
diplomas and postgraduate or vocational qualifications, and
experienced health and safety professionals, who will find it
invaluable as a reference.
This book discusses how to collect data and analyze databases in
order to map risk zones, and contributes to developing a conceptual
framework for coastal risk assessment. Further, the book primarily
focuses on a specific case study: the Bay of Bengal along the
southeastern coast of India. The dramatic rise in losses and
casualties due to natural disasters like wind, storm-surge-induced
flooding, seismic hazards and tsunami incidence along this coast
over the past few decades has prompted a major national scientific
initiative investigating the probable causes and possible
mitigation strategies. As such, geoscientists are called upon to
analyze the coastal hazards by anticipating the changes in and
impacts of extreme weather hazards on the Bay of Bengal coasts as a
result of global climate change and local sea-level change.
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis
as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment,
perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It
presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and
provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The
Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a
field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the
topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and
science based on recent research, and explains the difference
between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle
risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering,
business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts,
theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to
understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern
risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts,
and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for
Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and
risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and
examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is
essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists,
students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to
scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk
analysis in their work.
Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment
and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an
adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in
complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which
focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market
participants' own positions and their propensity to react to
outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical
reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of
decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking.
By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work
is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of
financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.
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