The essential reference for financial risk management

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the "Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated Sixth Edition, mirrors recent updates to the new two-level Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam, and is fully supported by GARP as the trusted way to prepare for the rigorous and renowned FRM certification. This valuable new edition includes an exclusive collection of interactive multiple-choice questions from recent FRM exams.

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Sixth Edition" supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion, with the full support of GARP, this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers.Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity riskExamines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instrumentsContains new material on extreme value theory, techniques in operational risk management, and corporate risk management

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The "FRM Handbook" is the official reference book for GARP's FRM certification program.

Thousands of people continue to die from heat. Heat illnesses and advice for preventing heat casualties at work, during heatwaves, sport and the effects of global warming are described. A new perspective on thermoregulation integrates physiological and psychophysical regulated variables. Heat stress indices, the WBGT and the SWreq are presented. It is time to understand and routinely use computer simulations of people in hot conditions. How to understand how a model can be constructed is also described. This book provides an accessible, concise and comprehensive coverage into how people respond to heat and how to predict and avoid heat causalities. A practical productivity model, and Burn thresholds, complete the book which begins with up to date knowledge on measurement of heat stress, heat strain, metabolic rate and the thermal properties and influences of clothing. Features Provides methods and regulations through international standards Illustrates the WBGT and analytical heat stress indices and how to construct a thermal model Discusses the role of clothing on heat stress and thermal strain Presents a new model for predicting productivity in the heat Offers a new method of human thermoregulation Considers heat illness and prevention during heatwaves and in global warming

In Even the Odds, Karen Firestone explains how risk assessment plays a prominent role in all aspects of life. We may all define risk, and our tolerance for it, somewhat differently, but we might all agree it plays a pivotal role in guiding us toward an optimal outcome. As a long-time investment advisor, Firestone has grown accustomed to interpreting risk on a daily basis. She has developed four core tenets of risk-taking we can all apply to anticipating, evaluating, and responding to the risks we face in our business, investing, and personal lives. These tenets are right-sizing; right-timing; relying on skill, knowledge, and experience; and staying skeptical about numbers, promises, and forecasts. Firestone's approach is both practical and accessible to individuals who are making important decisions, such as embarking on new career or life changes, starting or running an enterprise, making a sizable investment, or deciding how to balance across a full portfolio of assets. The book is rich with anecdotes and examples of how many prominent leaders in their fields encountered and dealt with risk along the way. Firestone also shares her own successes and failures, in particular when she decided to risk it all--a fabulous career managing billions of dollars at a premium investment company, her reputation, and the security at home that comes with a strong and stable job--to go out on her own. Even the Odds helps us understand the broader implications of risk--and how it guides our decision-making--so that we can improve outcomes across multiple facets of our lives, from our businesses and investments, to the personal choices we make.

This is a reprint of 978-0-901357-47-2 Ergonomics in action: a practical guide for the workplace is a no-nonsense introduction to the principles of workplace ergonomics. The book is very user-friendly and written in a clear, jargon-free style, and gives straightforward explanations and practical examples. Useful summaries at the end of each chapter highlight key points at a glance. The book focuses on ergonomics in the design process, job design and work organisation. It covers specific areas of ergonomic importance; including hand tools, computer use and manual handling, and also addresses the complex and sometimes controversial topic of upper limb disorders. Ergonomics in action also includes a chapter on the basics of anthropometry and offers several practical case studies to illustrate the human and commercial benefits of following good ergonomic principles. As a consultant ergonomist, Celine McKeown has extensive experience of applying the principles of ergonomics to a wide variety of sectors. She also trains, advises and writes on a broad range of ergonomics and health and safety issues.

State of the art risk management techniques and practices supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that "risk management" is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. * Covers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting * Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics * Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio Providing the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

Society at large tends to misunderstand what safety is all about. It is not just the absence of harm. When nothing bad happens over a period of time, how do you know you are safe? In reality, safety is what you and your people do moment by moment, day by day to protect assets from harm and to control the hazards inherent in your operations. This is the purpose of risk-based thinking, the key element of the six building blocks of Human and Organizational Performance (H&OP). Generally, H&OP provides a risk-based approach to managing human performance in operations. But, specifically, risk-based thinking enables foresight and flexibility-even when surprised-to do what is necessary to protect assets from harm but also achieve mission success despite ongoing stresses or shocks to the operation. Although you cannot prepare for every adverse scenario, you can be ready for almost anything. When risk-based thinking is integrated into the DNA of an organization's way of doing business, people will be ready for most unexpected situations. Eventually, safety becomes a core value, not a priority to be negotiated with others depending on circumstances. This book provides a coherent perspective on what executives and line managers within operational environments need to focus on to efficiently and effectively control, learn, and adapt.

High-level guidance for implementing enterprise risk management in any organization

A Practical Guide to Risk Management shows organizations how to implement an effective ERM solution, starting with senior management and risk and compliance professionals working together to categorize and assess risks throughout the enterprise. Detailed guidance is provided on the key risk categories, including financial, operational, reputational, and strategic areas, along with practical tips on how to handle risks that overlap across categories. Provides high-level guidance on how to implement enterprise risk management across any organizationIncludes discussion of the latest trends and best practicesFeatures the role of IT in ERM and the tools that are available in both assessment and on-going complianceDiscusses the key challenges that need to be overcome for a successful ERM initiative

Walking readers through the creation of ERM architecture and setting up on-going monitoring and assessement processes, this is an essential book for every CFO, controller and IT manager.

Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and reliability, and their applications to a wide range of industrial, civil and social sectors. The main goal of this book is to showcase the advancements in understanding, modeling and management of complex engineered systems. The book offers a multidisciplinary platform to address technological, societal and financial aspects of system safety and reliability. Emphasis is given to the intra- and interdependencies of functions and the cascading failures that characterize complex engineered systems. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems (abstracts book 730 pages + full paper CD-ROM 4634 pages) will be of interest to academics and professionals involved or interested in aspect of risk, safety and reliability in various engineering areas.

A fully updated, step-by-step guide for implementing COSO's Enterprise Risk Management

"COSO Enterprise Risk Management, Second Edition" clearly enables organizations of all types and sizes to understand and better manage their risk environments and make better decisions through use of the COSO ERM framework. The "Second Edition" discusses the latest trends and pronouncements that have affected COSO ERM and explores new topics, including the PCAOB's release of AS5; ISACA's recently revised CobiT; and the recently released IIA Standards.Offers you expert advice on how to carry out internal control responsibilities more efficientlyUpdates you on the ins and outs of the COSO Report and its emergence as the new platform for understanding all aspects of risk in today's organizationShows you how an effective risk management program, following COSO ERM, can help your organization to better comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley ActKnowledgeably explains how to implement an effective ERM program

Preparing professionals develop and follow an effective risk culture, "COSO Enterprise Risk Management, Second Edition" is the fully revised, invaluable working resource that will show you how to identify risks, avoid pitfalls within your corporation, and keep it moving ahead of the competition.

Risk management and contingency planning has really come to the fore since the first edition of this book was originally published. Computer failure, fire, fraud, robbery, accident, environmental damage, new regulations - business is constantly under threat. But how do you determine which are the most important dangers for your business? What can you do to lessen the chances of their happening - and minimize the impact if they do happen? In this comprehensive volume Kit Sadgrove shows how you can identify - and control - the relevant threats and ensure that your company will survive. He begins by asking 'What is risk?', 'How do we assess it?' and 'How can it be managed?' He goes on to examine in detail the key danger areas including finance, product quality, health and safety, security and the environment. With case studies, self-assessment exercises and checklists, each chapter looks systematically at what is involved and enables you to draw up action plans that could, for example, provide a defence in law or reduce your insurance premium. The new edition reflects the changes in the global environment, the new risks that have emerged and the effect of macroeconomic factors on business profitability and success. The author has also included a set of case studies to illustrate his ideas in practice.

A company's reputation is one of its most valuable assets, and reputational risk is high on the agenda at board level and amongst regulators. Rethinking Reputational Risk explains the hidden factors which can both cause crises and tip an otherwise survivable crisis into a reputational disaster. Reputations are lost when the perception of an organization is damaged by its behaviour not meeting stakeholder expectations. Rethinking Reputational Risk lays bare the actions, inactions and local 'states of normality' that can lead to perception-changing consequences and gives readers the insight to recognize and respond to the risks to their reputations. Using case studies, such as BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Volkswagen's emissions rigging scandal, Tesco, AIG, EADS Airbus A380, and Mid-Staffordshire NHS Hospital Trust, and analysis of their failures, this hard-hitting guide also applies lessons drawn from behavioural economics to the behavioural risks that underlie reputation risk. An essential read for risk professionals, business leaders and board members who need to understand and deal with business-critical threats to their reputation, this book presents a new framework that will be invaluable for all involved in safeguarding an organization's reputation.

Risks are everywhere in the business world. "Mastering Risk Modelling" provides the busy financial manager with useful tips andpractical templates for assessing, applying and modelling risk and uncertainty in Excel. The book is designed specifically to be of help to you if you don't have time to start from scratch - it will improve your abilities in Excel and give you a library of basic examples that you can use as a basis for further development.

It covers:

- Review of model design

- Risk and uncertainty

- Credit risk

- Project finance

- Financial analysis

- Valuation

- Options

- Bonds

- Equities

- Value at risk

- Simulation

This second edition contains brand new chapters:

- Revised models

- More material on credit risk modelling e.g. portfolios, bankruptcy models

- Shows dual 2003/2007 Excel key strokes

- More theory especially on statistics in Excel

- Basic statistics in Excel - tools and methods

- Capacity to borrow and repay

- Finding optimum mix of risk and return

- Fixed income risk models

- Visual Basic approach

Large-Scale Evacuation introduces the reader to the steps involved in evacuation modelling for towns and cities, from understanding the hazards that can require large-scale evacuations, through understanding how local officials decide to issue evacuation advisories and households decide whether to comply, to transportation simulation and traffic management strategies. The author team has been recognized internationally for their research and consulting experience in the field of evacuations. Collectively, they have 125 years of experience in evacuation, including more than 140 projects for federal and state agencies. The text explains how to model evacuations that use the road transportation network by combining perspectives from social scientists and transportation engineers, fields that have commonly approached evacuation modelling from distinctly different perspectives. In doing so, it offers a step-by-step guide through the key questions needed to model an evacuation and its impacts to the evacuation route system as well as evacuation management strategies for influencing demand and expanding capacity. The authors also demonstrate how to simulate the resulting traffic and evacuation management strategies that can be used to facilitate evacuee movement and reduce unnecessary demand. Case studies, which identify key points to analyze in an evacuation plan, discuss evacuation termination and re-entry, and highlight challenges that someone developing an evacuation plan or model should expect, are also included. This textbook will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students.

Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.

The consequences of taking on risk can be ruinous to personal finances, professional careers, corporate survivability, and even nation states. Yet many risk managers do not have a clear understanding of the basics. Requiring no statistical or mathematical background, The Fundamental Rules of Risk Management gives you the knowledge to successfully handle risk in your organization. The book begins with a deep investigation into the behavioral roots of risk. Using both historical and contemporary contexts, author Nigel Da Costa Lewis carefully details the indisputable truths surrounding many of the behavioral biases that induce risk. He exposes the fallacy of the wisdom of experts, explains why you cannot rely on regulators, outlines the characteristics of the "glad game," and demonstrates how high intelligence or lack thereof can lead to loss of hard-earned wealth. He also discusses the weaknesses and failures of modern risk management. Moving on to elements often overlooked by risk managers, Dr. Lewis traces the link between corporate governance and risk management. He then covers core lessons surrounding the role of risk managers as well as the difficult subject of integrated, single lens analysis of risk. The book also explores aspects of spreadsheet risk and draws on lessons learned in the information systems and software engineering communities to provide guidance on selecting the right risk management system. It concludes with a discussion on the most dominant of risk measures-value at risk. Having a clear understanding about risk separates successful professionals, companies, and economies from history's forgotten failures. Through examples and case studies, this thought-provoking book shows how the rules of risk can work to protect and enhance investor value.

Non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods have dominated most of the fields of applied research and technology over the last twenty years. These techniques provide information on the functional efficiency of materials and structures without causing any structural impact on the structure itself. Their use enables the monitoring of the structural integrity, the structural condition as well as the service in-duced degradation of materials and structures during their service life. In this respect, they address a vast field of applications ranging from the aerospace and automotive industry to civil engineering structures and material
quality control.

This volume comprises scientific papers presented during the Fifth Conference on Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing (Ioannina, Greece, 19 21 September 2011). A broad spectrum of related research was presented during the course of the conference, including optical, acoustic, thermal, electrical and electromagnetic methods together with imaging tomographic and signal processing techniques. Special attention was given to NDE for Civil Engineering Structures and for the first time in the conference series, a multiple session on NDE for the protection of cultural heritage was organized.

Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing V contains contributions by experts in this field from 22 different countries worldwide. Reflecting the stateof-the-art in Non-Destructive Evaluation, the book will prove to be a valuable companion to students, engineers and industrial partners who are active in the field of non-destructive evaluation and testing. This volume will also provide students and researchers with insight into the focal points of contemporary research efforts in the field of non-destructive evaluation.

One of the seventeen critical infrastructures vital to the security of the United States, the water supply system remains largely unprotected from the threat of terrorism, including possible revenge by Al Qaeda over the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Recognizing and identifying prospective events of terrorism against the water infrastructure is critical to the protection of the nation, as the consequences triggered by a terrorist attack on the water supply would be devastating. Risk Assessment for Water Infrastructure: Safety and Security provides a unique quantitative risk assessment methodology for protection and security against terrorist contamination, vandalism, attacks against dams, and other threats to water supply systems. Focusing on the human safety, environmental, and economic consequences triggered by potential terrorist attacks and other threats, the book presents: The development of an integrated approach of risk assessment based upon the cumulative prospect theory The qualitative/quantitative processes and models for security and safe facility operations as required by EPA, DHS, and other governmental and regulatory agencies The application of an integrated model to the risk assessment of surface water, dams, wells, wastewater treatment facilities, reservoirs, and aqueducts of large urban regions The development of intelligence analysis incorporating risk assessment for terrorism prevention Finally, the book presents the legal and regulatory requirements and policy related to the protection and security of water infrastructure from terrorism and natural hazards to both human health and the environment. By analyzing potential terrorist risks against the water supply, strategic improvements in U.S. water infrastructure security may be achieved, including changes in policy, incorporation of intrusion detection technology, increased surveillance, and increased intelligence. More information can be found on the author's website.

Conduct risk is at the core of behavioural regulation, a new approach to regulating financial services, whose new agencies and public prosecutors have spread rapidly across the world. Its prosecutors intervene assertively to challenge financial service providers to show clear evidence of a new customer-centric approach, which understands and responds to the hidden drivers of customer behaviour. They use their unprecedented powers to levy very large fines and even to imprison wrongdoers - often for not taking precautions rather than for any active wrongdoing. Conduct Risk Management is a tool for recognizing, acting on, and predicting conduct risk impacts in regulated business. Conduct Risk Management sees beyond econometric and other 'box-ticking' traditions of risk management. Whilst protecting senior managers, it helps all staff to make positive use of conduct risk to promote behaviour the regulator will accept as 'good', as good behaviour is good business. The new conduct regulations personally affect every manager in financial services, and their suppliers, with new regulations making senior managers liable to imprisonment for failures in organizational conduct. Conduct Risk Management sets out plainly what practitioners need to know to understand the regulator's intentions, to prove compliance, protect competitiveness and maintain licence to operate.

A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications. Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety, banking and finance, and many other public and private institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.

Ten lessons from history on the dos and don'ts of analyzing political risk Our baffling new multipolar world grows ever more complex, desperately calling for new ways of thinking, particularly when it comes to political risk. To Dare More Boldly provides those ways, telling the story of the rise of political risk analysis, both as a discipline and a lucrative high-stakes industry that guides the strategic decisions of corporations and governments around the world. It assesses why recent predictions have gone so wrong and boldly puts forward ten analytical commandments that can stand the test of time. Written by one of the field's leading practitioners, this incisive book derives these indelible rules of the game from a wide-ranging and entertaining survey of world history. John Hulsman looks at examples as seemingly unconnected as the ancient Greeks and Romans, the Third Crusade, the Italian Renaissance, America's founders, Napoleon, the Battle of Gettysburg, the British Empire, the Kaiser's Germany, the breakup of the Beatles, Charles Manson, and Deng Xiaoping's China. Hulsman makes sense of yesterday's world, and in doing so provides an invaluable conceptual tool kit for navigating today's. To Dare More Boldly creatively explains why political risk analysis is vital for business and political leaders alike, and authoritatively establishes the analytical rules of thumb that practitioners need to do it effectively.

The consequences of taking on risk can be ruinous to personal finances, professional careers, corporate survivability, and even nation states. Yet many risk managers do not have a clear understanding of the basics. Requiring no statistical or mathematical background, The Fundamental Rules of Risk Management gives you the knowledge to successfully handle risk in your organization. The book begins with a deep investigation into the behavioral roots of risk. Using both historical and contemporary contexts, author Nigel Da Costa Lewis carefully details the indisputable truths surrounding many of the behavioral biases that induce risk. He exposes the fallacy of the wisdom of experts, explains why you cannot rely on regulators, outlines the characteristics of the "glad game," and demonstrates how high intelligence or lack thereof can lead to loss of hard-earned wealth. He also discusses the weaknesses and failures of modern risk management. Moving on to elements often overlooked by risk managers, Dr. Lewis traces the link between corporate governance and risk management. He then covers core lessons surrounding the role of risk managers as well as the difficult subject of integrated, single lens analysis of risk. The book also explores aspects of spreadsheet risk and draws on lessons learned in the information systems and software engineering communities to provide guidance on selecting the right risk management system. It concludes with a discussion on the most dominant of risk measures-value at risk. Having a clear understanding about risk separates successful professionals, companies, and economies from history's forgotten failures. Through examples and case studies, this thought-provoking book shows how the rules of risk can work to protect and enhance investor value.

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions-even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

This book offers a practical solution for every organization that needs to monitor the effectiveness of their risk management. Written by a practising chief risk officer, Risk Maturity Models enables you to build confidence in your organization's risk management process through a tailored risk maturity model that lends itself to benchmarking. This is a management tool that is easy to design, practical and powerful, which can baseline and self-improve the maturity capabilities needed to deliver ERM benefits over time. This book guides the reader through comparing and tailoring a wealth of existing models, methods and reference standards and codes (such as ISO 31000 and COSO ERM). Covering 60 risk-related maturity models in clear comparison format, it helps risk professionals to select the approach best suited to their circumstances, and even design their own model. Risk Maturity Models provides focused messages for the risk management function, the internal audit function, and the Board. Combining proven practice and insight with realistic practitioner scenarios, this is essential reading for every risk, project, audit and board professional who wants to move their organization up the risk maturity curve.

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers.

Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. "Risk Analysis" adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications.

Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text "Foundations of Risk Analysis,"

Professor Aven's previous book "Foundations of Risk Analysis" presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field.