Stochastic games have an element of chance: the state of the next round is determined probabilistically depending upon players' actions and the current state. Successful players need to balance the need for short-term payoffs while ensuring future opportunities remain high. The various techniques needed to analyze these often highly non-trivial games are a showcase of attractive mathematics, including methods from probability, differential equations, algebra, and combinatorics. This book presents a course on the theory of stochastic games going from the basics through to topics of modern research, focusing on conceptual clarity over complete generality. Each of its chapters introduces a new mathematical tool - including contracting mappings, semi-algebraic sets, infinite orbits, and Ramsey's theorem, among others - before discussing the game-theoretic results they can be used to obtain. The author assumes no more than a basic undergraduate curriculum and illustrates the theory with numerous examples and exercises, with solutions available online.

Compliance has become key to our contemporary markets, societies, and modes of governance across a variety of public and private domains. While this has stimulated a rich body of empirical and practical expertise on compliance, thus far, there has been no comprehensive understanding of what compliance is or how it influences various fields and sectors. The academic knowledge of compliance has remained siloed along different disciplinary domains, regulatory and legal spheres, and mechanisms and interventions. This handbook bridges these divides to provide the first one-stop overview of what compliance is, how we can best study it, and the core mechanisms that shape it. Written by leading experts, chapters offer perspectives from across law, regulatory studies, management science, criminology, economics, sociology, and psychology. This volume is the definitive and comprehensive account of compliance.

The Christoffel-Darboux kernel, a central object in approximation theory, is shown to have many potential uses in modern data analysis, including applications in machine learning. This is the first book to offer a rapid introduction to the subject, illustrating the surprising effectiveness of a simple tool. Bridging the gap between classical mathematics and current evolving research, the authors present the topic in detail and follow a heuristic, example-based approach, assuming only a basic background in functional analysis, probability and some elementary notions of algebraic geometry. They cover new results in both pure and applied mathematics and introduce techniques that have a wide range of potential impacts on modern quantitative and qualitative science. Comprehensive notes provide historical background, discuss advanced concepts and give detailed bibliographical references. Researchers and graduate students in mathematics, statistics, engineering or economics will find new perspectives on traditional themes, along with challenging open problems.

Provides a range of up-to-date case studies to help students understand the real world practice of risk management in organisations Includes an overview situating the subject of risk management in the wider context of corporate governance, aiding student understanding The case studies on Tesco and Birmingham City Council are radically updated to reflect recent controversies, whilst a case study on cyber risk is added for the new edition

Extensively updated for the second edition, this handy guide covers the safety engineering of ship-shaped offshore installations at every stage of design, construction, operation, lifetime healthcare and decommissioning. New sections cover additional types of offshore structures, including offshore power plants, as well as cutting-edge technologies and all the latest advances in the field. The text focuses on minimising accidents and the effects of extreme conditions, with new chapters covering earthquakes, hurricanes and terrorist attacks, as well as traditional types of accidental events such as hull girder collapse, collisions, fires and explosions. This is an invaluable resource for students who will be approaching the subject for the first time as well as practising engineers and researchers.

If a major event such as a terrorist attack, 7.2 earthquake, tsunami, or hacker attack were to disrupt business operations, would your organization be prepared to respond to the financial, political, and social impacts? In order for your company to be resilient, it must be ready to respond and recover quickly from the impact of such events. Business continuity is the discipline that can help your organization become truly resilient. Business Continuity Planning: A Project Management Approach explains how to deploy project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness methods in a manner that will ensure organizational resiliency. With an emphasis on building business preparedness plans, it covers the fundamental principles of project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness. Upon reading this book, you will learn how to apply project management to institute business continuity governance and to build and maintain business preparedness plans. You will also learn what's required to conduct an effective business impact analysis. Detailing a proven plan for achieving business continuity and business preparedness, the book includes numerous diagrams, checklists, and tools to help you determine exactly what you must do to prepare for a serious event. It also explains how to test your continuity plans and evaluate preparedness processes to ensure your organization will be truly prepared to withstand or recover from the next emergency, disaster, or catastrophic event to affect your organization.

'Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed -------- What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected? In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it's something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn't even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed. In Risk: A User's Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He lays out ten dimensions of control which we can adjust at any given time, no matter the context: narrative, bias, action, timing, adaptability, communication, technology, diversity, structure and leadership. Drawing on compelling examples ranging from military history to the business world, and offering infinitely practical exercises to improve preparedness, McChrystal illustrates how these ten factors are almost always in effect - and how, by considering them constantly, individuals and organizations can exert mastery over every conceivable sort of risk that they might face. We may not be able to see into the future, but Risk gives us a framework for improving our resistance and building a strong defense against what we know -- and what we don't. -------- 'A brilliant user's guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right.' - Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking In Bets and How To Decide 'Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, McChrystal's clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible.' - James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy 'An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between.' - Keith Krach, former Undersecretary of State and CEO of DocuSign

Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems.
Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms
* Includes extensive use of case studies
* Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials
* No comparable texts available
Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors-including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck-are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.

Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies.

Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.

This comprehensive, yet accessible, guide to enterprise risk management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal and external contexts with which risk management must be carried out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks. This new edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect new legislation and the creation of the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. It includes new content on Bayesian networks, expanded coverage of Basel III, a revised treatment of operational risk and a fully revised index. Over 100 diagrams are used to illustrate the range of approaches available, and risk management issues are highlighted with numerous case studies. This book also forms part of the core reading for the UK actuarial profession's specialist technical examination in enterprise risk management, ST9.

This book aims to encourage a more reflective, multidisciplinary approach to public safety, and the 'reenfranchisement' of those affected by this new phenomenon. Over the past decade health and safety has become a major issue of public interest. There are countless stories of health and safety activities interfering with public life, preventing some beneficial activity from taking place - even creating absurd or dangerous situations. On the one hand, risk assessment, properly conducted, is highly beneficial - it save lives and prevents injuries. But on the other, it can damage public life. Why has this come about, and does it have to be like that? The authors examine the origins of the problem, look critically at the tools used by safety assessors and their underlying assumptions, and consider important differences between public life and industry (where the approaches largely originated). They illuminate the whole with an analysis of legal requirements, attitudes of stakeholders, and recent research on risk perception and decision making. The result is a profound and important analysis of risk and safety culture and a framework for managing public safety more effectively.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

"Financial Risk Forecasting" is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques.

Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use - that risk is exogenous - and what happens when those assumptions are violated.

Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book.

The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing.

The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com - which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

The Money Shot provides a real look into the lives of a professional athlete and how this new-found fame and fortune can change their lives. Walking through the financial maze can be challenging for athletes who really need to focus on game performance. The tips and tools in the Money Shot allows athletes and their families to clearly identify how to find success in the money game so they can focus on career success as an athlete. Exploring the "do's" and "don'ts" of saving, spending, using, and growing money, the Money Shot is designed to provide the roadmap to successful financial performance by laying out the steps play byplay. Athletes and their families gain knowledge to make the right moves for their financial present and future, and confidence to know they are performing at peak levels in the money game.

Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) is of worldwide significance, and is strongly related to the detection of damage in engineering structures (buildings, bridges, aircrafts, ships, pressure vessels, etc.) using non-invasive techniques (ultrasound, X-rays, Radar, neutrons, thermography, vibrations, acoustic emission, etc.). Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing VI includes the contributions to the 6th International Conference in Non-Destructive Testing (Brussels, Belgium, 27-29 May 2015). The book intends to give the latest updates in the field of NDT, and is organized in chapters on high impact subjects, such as: - Applications of NDT methods related to cultural heritage structures; - Materials like ceramics, polymer and composites; - Railways; - Glass panels; - Steel structures; - Wind turbines, and - Aerospace structures. Other subjects include the monitoring of 3D-printed components, self-healing mechanisms in concrete, and applications of NDT in biological materials. Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing VI provides insight in the latest developments in the different techniques with a huge social impact. In addition, it facilitates the exchange of ideas among scientists and the industry, disseminating academic knowledge to society - and the other way around: giving feedback from the experience of practitioners to academia.

This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and tools in tests run on a number of buildings of worship are also reported.

Focusing on what actuaries need in practice, this introductory account provides readers with essential tools for handling complex problems and explains how simulation models can be created, used and re-used (with modifications) in related situations. The book begins by outlining the basic tools of modelling and simulation, including a discussion of the Monte Carlo method and its use. Part II deals with general insurance and Part III with life insurance and financial risk. Algorithms that can be implemented on any programming platform are spread throughout and a program library written in R is included. Numerous figures and experiments with R-code illustrate the text. The author's non-technical approach is ideal for graduate students, the only prerequisites being introductory courses in calculus and linear algebra, probability and statistics. The book will also be of value to actuaries and other analysts in the industry looking to update their skills.

We find risks everywhere-from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Across the world, organizations continue to be damaged and brought down by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This is despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers that have been put in place in response. So why isn't compliance working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and succeed. Written for any organization and businesses, this book provides clear, thorough and practical guidance for practitioners and decision-makers. It explains in layman's terms the skills, tools and mindset needed to develop and deliver a best practice compliance and ethics programme - one that meets the requirements made by law, stakeholders and society, and protects your organization from risk of fines, penalties and reputational damage. But this is also a book for all those interested in how to build employee engagement and motivation. The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics demonstrates the value - including competitive advantage, career satisfaction, employee and customer loyalty, and brand enhancement - that a truly effective compliance and ethics programme can bring, when it works hand in hand with a values-based culture of shared ownership.