The fourth edition of this successful text provides an introduction to probability and random processes, with many practical applications. It is aimed at mathematics undergraduates and postgraduates, and has four main aims. US BL To provide a thorough but straightforward account of basic probability theory, giving the reader a natural feel for the subject unburdened by oppressive technicalities. BE BL To discuss important random processes in depth with many examples.BE BL To cover a range of topics that are significant and interesting but less routine.BE BL To impart to the beginner some flavour of advanced work.BE UE OP The book begins with the basic ideas common to most undergraduate courses in mathematics, statistics, and science. It ends with material usually found at graduate level, for example, Markov processes, (including Markov chain Monte Carlo), martingales, queues, diffusions, (including stochastic calculus with Ito's formula), renewals, stationary processes (including the ergodic theorem), and option pricing in mathematical finance using the Black-Scholes formula. Further, in this new revised fourth edition, there are sections on coupling from the past, Levy processes, self-similarity and stability, time changes, and the holding-time/jump-chain construction of continuous-time Markov chains. Finally, the number of exercises and problems has been increased by around 300 to a total of about 1300, and many of the existing exercises have been refreshed by additional parts. The solutions to these exercises and problems can be found in the companion volume, One Thousand Exercises in Probability, third edition, (OUP 2020).CP

Levy processes form a wide and rich class of random process, and have many applications ranging from physics to finance. Stochastic calculus is the mathematics of systems interacting with random noise. Here, the author ties these two subjects together, beginning with an introduction to the general theory of Levy processes, then leading on to develop the stochastic calculus for Levy processes in a direct and accessible way. This fully revised edition now features a number of new topics. These include: regular variation and subexponential distributions; necessary and sufficient conditions for Levy processes to have finite moments; characterisation of Levy processes with finite variation; Kunita's estimates for moments of Levy type stochastic integrals; new proofs of Ito representation and martingale representation theorems for general Levy processes; multiple Wiener-Levy integrals and chaos decomposition; an introduction to Malliavin calculus; an introduction to stability theory for Levy-driven SDEs.

This is the first book to promote the use of stochastic, or random, processes to understand, model and predict our climate system. One of the most important applications of this technique is in the representation of comprehensive climate models of processes which, although crucial, are too small or fast to be explicitly modelled. The book shows how stochastic methods can lead to improvements in climate simulation and prediction, compared with more conventional bulk-formula parameterization procedures. Beginning with expositions of the relevant mathematical theory, the book moves on to describe numerous practical applications. It covers the complete range of time scales of climate variability, from seasonal to decadal, centennial, and millennial. With contributions from leading experts in climate physics, this book is invaluable to anyone working on climate models, including graduate students and researchers in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, numerical weather forecasting, climate prediction, climate modelling, and climate change.

Focusing on recent advances in option pricing under the SABR model, this book shows how to price options under this model in an arbitrage-free, theoretically consistent manner. It extends SABR to a negative rates environment, and shows how to generalize it to a similar model with additional degrees of freedom, allowing simultaneous model calibration to swaptions and CMSs. Since the SABR model is used on practically every trading floor to construct interest rate options volatility cubes in an arbitrage-free manner, a careful treatment of it is extremely important. The book will be of interest to experienced industry practitioners, as well as to students and professors in academia. Aimed mainly at financial industry practitioners (for example quants and former physicists) this book will also be interesting to mathematicians who seek intuition in the mathematical finance.

This book focuses on quantitative approximation results for weak limit theorems when the target limiting law is infinitely divisible with finite first moment. Two methods are presented and developed to obtain such quantitative results. At the root of these methods stands a Stein characterizing identity discussed in the third chapter and obtained thanks to a covariance representation of infinitely divisible distributions. The first method is based on characteristic functions and Stein type identities when the involved sequence of random variables is itself infinitely divisible with finite first moment. In particular, based on this technique, quantitative versions of compound Poisson approximation of infinitely divisible distributions are presented. The second method is a general Stein's method approach for univariate selfdecomposable laws with finite first moment. Chapter 6 is concerned with applications and provides general upper bounds to quantify the rate of convergence in classical weak limit theorems for sums of independent random variables. This book is aimed at graduate students and researchers working in probability theory and mathematical statistics.

This book provides a concise introduction to the behavior of mechanical structures and testing their stochastic stability under the influence of noise. It explains the physical effects of noise and in particular the concept of Gaussian white noise. In closing, the book explains how to model the effects of noise on mechanical structures, and how to nullify / compensate for it by designing effective controllers.

Josef Anton Strini analyzes a special stochastic optimal control problem. The problem under study arose from a dynamic cash management model in finance, where decisions about the dividend and financing policies of a firm have to be made. Additionally, using the dynamic programming approach, he extends the present discourse by the formal derivation of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and by examining the verification step carefully. Finally, the treatment is completed by solving the problem numerically.

This two-volume set provides a comprehensive and self-contained approach to the dynamics, ergodic theory, and geometry of elliptic functions mapping the complex plane onto the Riemann sphere. Volume I discusses many fundamental results from ergodic theory and geometric measure theory in detail, including finite and infinite abstract ergodic theory, Young's towers, measure-theoretic Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, thermodynamics formalism, geometric function theory, various conformal measures, conformal graph directed Markov systems and iterated functions systems, classical theory of elliptic functions. In Volume II, all these techniques, along with an introduction to topological dynamics of transcendental meromorphic functions, are applied to describe the beautiful and rich dynamics and fractal geometry of elliptic functions. Much of this material is appearing for the first time in book or even paper form. Both researchers and graduate students will appreciate the detailed explanations of essential concepts and full proofs provided in what is sure to be an indispensable reference.

The activity of neurons in the brain is noisy in that their firing times are random when they are firing at a given mean rate. This introduces a random or stochastic property into brain processing which we show in this book is fundamental to understanding many aspects of brain function, including probabilistic decision making, perception, memory recall, short-term memory, attention, and even creativity. In The Noisy Brain we show that in many of these processes, the noise caused by the random neuronal firing times is useful. However, this stochastic dynamics can be unstable or overstable, and we show that the stability of attractor networks in the brain in the face of noise may help to understand some important dysfunctions that occur in schizophrenia, normal aging, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. The Noisy Brain provides a unifying computational approach to brain function that links synaptic and biophysical properties of neurons through the firing of single neurons to the properties of the noise in large connected networks of noisy neurons to the levels of functional neuroimaging and behaviour. The book describes integrate-and-fire neuronal attractor networks with noise, and complementary mean-field analyses using approaches from theoretical physics. The book shows how they can be used to understand neuronal, functional neuroimaging, and behavioural data on decision-making, perception, memory recall, short-term memory, attention, and brain dysfunctions that occur in schizophrenia, normal aging, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. The Noisy Brain will be valuable for those in the fields of neuroscience, psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and biology from advanced undergraduate level upwards. It will also be of interest to those interested in neuroeconomics, animal behaviour, zoology, psychiatry, medicine, physics, and philosophy. The book has been written with modular chapters and sections, making it possible to select particular Chapters for course work. Advanced material on the physics of stochastic dynamics in the brain is contained in the Appendix.

Stochastic processes have a wide range of applications ranging from image processing, neuroscience, bioinformatics, financial management, and statistics. Mathematical, physical, and engineering systems use stochastic processes for modeling and reasoning phenomena. While comparing AI-stochastic systems with other counterpart systems, we are able to understand their significance, thereby applying new techniques to obtain new real-time results and solutions. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications in Artificial Intelligence opens doors for artificial intelligence experts to use stochastic processes as an effective tool in real-world problems in computational biology, speech recognition, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning. Covering key topics such as social media, big data, and artificial intelligence models, this reference work is ideal for mathematicians, industry professionals, researchers, scholars, academicians, practitioners, instructors, and students.

The first comprehensive graduate-level introduction to stochastic thermodynamics Stochastic thermodynamics is a well-defined subfield of statistical physics that aims to interpret thermodynamic concepts for systems ranging in size from a few to hundreds of nanometers, the behavior of which is inherently random due to thermal fluctuations. This growing field therefore describes the nonequilibrium dynamics of small systems, such as artificial nanodevices and biological molecular machines, which are of increasing scientific and technological relevance. This textbook provides an up-to-date pedagogical introduction to stochastic thermodynamics, guiding readers from basic concepts in statistical physics, probability theory, and thermodynamics to the most recent developments in the field. Gradually building up to more advanced material, the authors consistently prioritize simplicity and clarity over exhaustiveness and focus on the development of readers' physical insight over mathematical formalism. This approach allows the reader to grow as the book proceeds, helping interested young scientists to enter the field with less effort and to contribute to its ongoing vibrant development. Chapters provide exercises to complement and reinforce learning. Appropriate for graduate students in physics and biophysics, as well as researchers, Stochastic Thermodynamics serves as an excellent initiation to this rapidly evolving field. Emphasizes a pedagogical approach to the subject Highlights connections with the thermodynamics of information Pays special attention to molecular biophysics applications Privileges physical intuition over mathematical formalism Solutions manual available on request for instructors adopting the book in a course

Here is a work that adds much to the sum of our knowledge in a key area of science today. It is concerned with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes. A unique feature of the book is the use of discrete time, especially useful in some specific applications where the time scale is intrinsically discrete. The models presented in the book are specifically adapted to reliability studies and DNA analysis. The book is mainly intended for applied probabilists and statisticians interested in semi-Markov chains theory, reliability and DNA analysis, and for theoretical oriented reliability and bioinformatics engineers.

The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists.

"The book is a valuable completion of the literature in this field. It is written in an ambitious mathematical style and can be recommended to statisticians as well as biostatisticians."
--Biometrische Zeitschrift

"Not many books manage to combine convincingly topics from probability theory over mathematical statistics to applied statistics. This is one of them. The book has other strong points to recommend it: it is written with meticulous care, in a lucid style, general results being illustrated by examples from statistical theory and practice, and a bunch of exercises serve to further elucidate and elaborate on the text."
--Mathematical Reviews

"This book gives a thorough introduction to martingale and counting process methods in survival analysis thereby filling a gap in the literature."
--Zentralblatt fur Mathematik und ihre Grenzgebiete/Mathematics Abstracts

"The authors have performed a valuable service to researchers in providing this material in [a] self-contained and accessible form. . . This text [is] essential reading for the probabilist or mathematical statistician working in the area of survival analysis."
--Short Book Reviews, International Statistical Institute

Counting Processes and Survival Analysis explores the martingale approach to the statistical analysis of countingprocesses, with an emphasis on the application of those methods to censored failure time data. This approach has proven remarkably successful in yielding results about statistical methods for many problems arising in censored data. A thorough treatment of the calculus of martingales as well as the most important applications of these methods to censored data is offered. Additionally, the book examines classical problems in asymptotic distribution theory for counting process methods and newer methods for graphical analysis and diagnostics of censored data. Exercises are included to provide practice in applying martingale methods and insight into the calculus itself.

The Poisson "law of small numbers" is a central principle in modern theories of reliability, insurance, and the statistics of extremes. It also has ramifications in apparently unrelated areas, such as the description of algebraic and combinatorial structures, and the distribution of prime numbers. Yet despite its importance, the law of small numbers is only an approximation. In 1975, however, a new technique was introduced, the Stein-Chen method, which makes it possible to estimate the accuracy of the approximation in a wide range of situations. This book provides an introduction to the method, and a varied selection of examples of its application, emphasizing the flexibility of the technique when combined with a judicious choice of coupling. It also contains more advanced material, in particular on compound Poisson and Poisson process approximation, where the reader is brought to the boundaries of current knowledge. The study will be of special interest to postgraduate students and researchers in applied probability as well as computer scientists.

Encompassing both introductory and more advanced research material, these notes deal with the author's contributions to stochastic processes and focus on Brownian motion processes and its derivative white noise. Originally published in 1970. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Gegenstand der Versicherungsmathematik sind Modelle und Methoden zur Quantifizierung von Risiken in der Versicherungswirtschaft. Sie ist damit ein Teilgebiet der Stochastik mit einer anwendungsspezifischen Auspr gung. Der Schwerpunkt dieses Buches ist die Schadensversicherung. Aufbauend auf dem individuellen und dem kollektiven Modell f r den Gesamtschaden eines Bestandes behandelt es grundlegende Aspekte der Tarifierung und der Schadensreservierung sowie die wichtigsten Formen der R ckversicherung und Methoden zum Vergleich von Risiken.

Twenty-five articles have been selected from the first 14 volumes of the "SA(c)minaire de ProbabilitA(c)s," all out of print, for their historical and/or mathematical interest. Among the many articles devoted to Martingale theory in the early volumes of the SA(c)minaire, we have chosen to reprint those that are particularly significant from a historical point of view, as well as those that can still be useful today. They are reprinted here verbatim, with a short retrospective comment, for the benefit of researchers in the theory of stochastic processes, in mathematical finance, or in history of mathematics.

This third edition is a revised, updated, and greatly expanded version of previous edition of 2001. The 1300+ exercises contained within are not merely drill problems, but have been chosen to illustrate the concepts, illuminate the subject, and both inform and entertain the reader. A broad range of subjects is covered, including elementary aspects of probability and random variables, sampling, generating functions, Markov chains, convergence, stationary processes, renewals, queues, martingales, diffusions, Levy processes, stability and self-similarity, time changes, and stochastic calculus including option pricing via the Black-Scholes model of mathematical finance. The text is intended to serve students as a companion for elementary, intermediate, and advanced courses in probability, random processes and operations research. It will also be useful for anyone needing a source for large numbers of problems and questions in these fields. In particular, this book acts as a companion to the authors' volume, Probability and Random Processes, fourth edition (OUP 2020).

The fourth edition of this successful text provides an introduction to probability and random processes, with many practical applications. It is aimed at mathematics undergraduates and postgraduates, and has four main aims. US BL To provide a thorough but straightforward account of basic probability theory, giving the reader a natural feel for the subject unburdened by oppressive technicalities. BE BL To discuss important random processes in depth with many examples.BE BL To cover a range of topics that are significant and interesting but less routine. BE BL To impart to the beginner some flavour of advanced work.BE UE OP The book begins with the basic ideas common to most undergraduate courses in mathematics, statistics, and science. It ends with material usually found at graduate level, for example, Markov processes, (including Markov chain Monte Carlo), martingales, queues, diffusions, (including stochastic calculus with Ito's formula), renewals, stationary processes (including the ergodic theorem), and option pricing in mathematical finance using the Black-Scholes formula. Further, in this new revised fourth edition, there are sections on coupling from the past, Levy processes, self-similarity and stability, time changes, and the holding-time/jump-chain construction of continuous-time Markov chains. Finally, the number of exercises and problems has been increased by around 300 to a total of about 1300, and many of the existing exercises have been refreshed by additional parts. The solutions to these exercises and problems can be found in the companion volume, One Thousand Exercises in Probability, third edition, (OUP 2020).CP

All the papers in the volume are original research papers, discussing fundamental properties of stochastic processes. The topics under study (martingales, filtrations, path properties, etc.) represent an important part of the current research performed in 1996-97 by various groups of probabilists in France and abroad.

Nearly one hundred years ago Jacques Hadamard used infinite sequences of symbols to analyze the distribution of geodesics on certain surfaces. That was the beginning of symbolic dynamics. In the 1930's and 40's Arnold Hedlund and Marston Morse again used infinite sequences to investigate geodesics on surfaces of negative curvature. They coined the term symbolic dynamics and began to study sequence spaces with the shift transformation as dynamical systems. In the 1940's Claude Shannon used sequence spaces to describe infor mation channels. Since that time symbolic dynamics has been used in ergodic theory, topological dynamics, hyperbolic dynamics, information theory and complex dynamics. Symbolic dynamical systems with a finite memory are stud ied in this book. They are the topological Markov shifts. Each can be defined by transition rules and the rules can be summarized by a transition matrix. The study naturally divides into two parts. The first part is about topological Markov shifts where the alphabet is finite. The second part is concerned with topological Markov shifts whose alphabet is count ably infinite. The techniques used in the two cases are quite different. When the alphabet is finite most of the methods are combinatorial or algebraic. When the alphabet is infinite the methods are much more analytic. This book grew from notes for a graduate course taught at Wesleyan Uni versity in the fall of 1994 and is intended as a graduate text and as a reference book for mathematicians working in related fields."

The different papers contained in this volume are all research papers. The main directions of research which are being developed are: quantum probability, semimartingales and stochastic calculus.

Kiyosi Ito's greatest contribution to probability theory may be his introduction of stochastic differential equations to explain the Kolmogorov-Feller theory of Markov processes. Starting with the geometric ideas that guided him, this book gives an account of Ito's program.

The modern theory of Markov processes was initiated by A. N. Kolmogorov. However, Kolmogorov's approach was too analytic to reveal the probabilistic foundations on which it rests. In particular, it hides the central role played by the simplest Markov processes: those with independent, identically distributed increments. To remedy this defect, Ito interpreted Kolmogorov's famous forward equation as an equation that describes the integral curve of a vector field on the space of probability measures. Thus, in order to show how Ito's thinking leads to his theory of stochastic integral equations, Stroock begins with an account of integral curves on the space of probability measures and then arrives at stochastic integral equations when he moves to a pathspace setting. In the first half of the book, everything is done in the context of general independent increment processes and without explicit use of Ito's stochastic integral calculus. In the second half, the author provides a systematic development of Ito's theory of stochastic integration: first for Brownian motion and then for continuous martingales. The final chapter presents Stratonovich's variation on Ito's theme and ends with an application to the characterization of the paths on which a diffusion is supported.

The book should be accessible to readers who have mastered the essentials of modern probability theory and should provide such readers with a reasonably thorough introduction to continuous-time, stochastic processes."