Over the last decades, we have seen more than three dozen new infectious diseases appear, some of which could kill millions of people with one or two unlucky gene mutations or one or two unfavourable environmental changes. The risks of pandemics only increase as the human population grows; therefore to direct our future we should examine our past. Howard Phillips provides the first look into the history of epidemics in South Africa, probing lethal episodes which significantly shaped this society over three centuries.

Focusing on devastating diseases such as smallpox, bubonic plague, Spanish influenza, polio and HIV/Aids, Plague, Pox and Pandemics probes their origin, their catastrophic course and their consequences in both the short and long term. Their impact ranges from the demographic to the political, the social, the economic, the spiritual, the psychological and the cultural. As each of these epidemics occurred at crucial moments in the country's history - early in European colonisation, in the midst of the mineral revolution, during the South African War and World War I, as industrialisation was getting under way, and within the eras of apartheid and post-apartheid - the book also examines how these processes affected and were affected by the five epidemics, thereby adding important dimensions to an understanding of each.

To those who read this book, South African history will not look the same again.

A provocative, original and compelling history of catastrophes and their consequences.

Disasters are by their very nature hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all. Yet the responses of a number of devloped countries to a new pathogen from China were badly bungled. Why?

The facile answer is to blame poor leadership. While populist rulers have certainly performed poorly in the face of the pandemic, more profund problems have been exposed by COVID-19. Only when we understand the central challenge posed by disaster in history can we see that this was also a failure of an administrative state and of economic elites that had grown myopic over much longer than just a few years. Why were so many Cassandras for so long ignored? Why did only some countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? Why do appeals to 'the science' often turn out to be mere magical thinking?

Drawing from multiple disciplines, including history, economics and network science, Doom: The Politics Of Catastrophe is a global post mortem for a plague year. Drawing on preoccupations that have shaped his books for some twenty years, Niall Ferguson describes the pathologies that have done us so much damage: from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online schism. COVID-19 was a test failed by countries who must learn some serious lessons from history if they are to avoid the doom of irreversible decline.

For those who could read between the lines, the censored news out of China was terrifying. But the president insisted there was nothing to worry about. Fortunately, we are still a nation of skeptics. Fortunately, there are those among us who study pandemics and are willing to look unflinchingly at worst-case scenarios.

Michael Lewis’s taut and brilliant nonfiction thriller pits a band of medical visionaries against the wall of ignorance that was the official response of the Trump administration to the outbreak of COVID-19. The characters you will meet in these pages are as fascinating as they are unexpected.

A thirteen-year-old girl’s science project on transmission of an airborne pathogen develops into a very grown-up model of disease control. A local public-health officer uses her worm’s-eye view to see what the CDC misses, and reveals great truths about American society. A secret team of dissenting doctors, nicknamed the Wolverines, has everything necessary to fight the pandemic: brilliant backgrounds, world-class labs, prior experience with the pandemic scares of bird flu and swine flu…everything, that is, except official permission to implement their work.

Michael Lewis is not shy about calling these people heroes for their refusal to follow directives that they know to be based on misinformation and bad science. Even the internet, as crucial as it is to their exchange of ideas, poses a risk to them. They never know for sure who else might be listening in.

WHO DECIDES WHICH FACTS ARE TRUE?
In 1998 Andrew Wakefield, a British gastroenterologist with a history of self-promotion, published a paper with a shocking allegation: the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might cause autism. The media seized hold of the story and, in the process, helped to launch one of the most devastating health scares ever. In the years to come Wakefield would be revealed as a profiteer in league with class-action lawyers, and he would eventually lose his medical license. Meanwhile one study after another failed to find any link between childhood vaccines and autism.
Yet the myth that vaccines somehow cause developmental disorders lives on. Despite the lack of corroborating evidence, it has been popularized by media personalities such as Oprah Winfrey and Jenny McCarthy and legitimized by journalists who claim that they are just being fair to "both sides" of an issue about which there is little debate. Meanwhile millions of dollars have been diverted from potential breakthroughs in autism research, families have spent their savings on ineffective "miracle cures," and declining vaccination rates have led to outbreaks of deadly illnesses like Hib, measles, and whooping cough. Most tragic of all is the increasing number of children dying from vaccine-preventable diseases.
In "The Panic Virus "Seth Mnookin draws on interviews with parents, public-health advocates, scientists, and anti-vaccine activists to tackle a fundamental question: How do we decide what the truth is? The fascinating answer helps explain everything from the persistence of conspiracy theories about 9/11 to the appeal of talk-show hosts who demand that President Obama "prove" he was born in America.
"The Panic Virus "is a riveting and sometimes heart-breaking medical detective story that explores the limits of rational thought. It is the ultimate cautionary tale for our time.

Contains all you need to know to understand statistics in medicine. Medical Statistics Made Easy has been a perennial bestseller since the first edition was published (it is consistently a #1 bestseller in medical statistics on Amazon). It is recommended worldwide on a variety of courses and programmes, from undergraduate medicine, through to professional medical qualifications. It is a book of key statistics principles for anyone studying or working in medicine and healthcare who needs a basic overview of the subject. It is ideal for non-statisticians who need to understand how statistics are used and applied in medicine and medical research. Using a consistent format, the authors describe the most common statistical methods in turn and then rate them on how difficult they are to understand and how common they are. The worked examples that demonstrate the statistical method in action have been updated to include current articles from the medical literature and now feature a wider range of medical journals. This fourth edition continues with the same structure as the previous editions, with new sections on cut-off points and ROC curves, as well as a new chapter on choosing the right statistical test. It also features a completely revised and updated 'Statistics at work' section.

The book provides a general background in matrix, determinant and vector calculus, followed by some very important aspects in mathematics such as Dirac Delta Function, Analyticity, Orthogonality, Singularity, etc., along with 'complex functions and series analysis' are considered very useful in mathematical physics. Important 'special functions' such as Hermite, Legendre, Laguerre, Chebyshev are also discussed in terms of their applications in quantum mechanics. Important 'integral transforms', such as Fourier, Laplace and Hilbert are also described with an inclination towards 'applications' for both undergraduate and postgraduate students in various branches of engineering as well as for readers in postgraduate studies in general and applied sciences. A chapter on Tensor Analysis is also included to briefly introduce the subject. This is a book where the technologist meets the mathematicians.

Epidemiology: A Research Manual for South Africa offers an applied introduction to epidemiological research methods, for students of various health science disciplines who are required to conduct or reference epidemiological research. Directed at readers who are new to epidemiological theory and practice, the text explains fundamental concepts and methods in a manner that is clear and accessible. The text offers a step-by-step guide to the development of a research protocol and the application of epidemiological methods, and addresses specific content areas and methodologies that are important in contemporary epidemiological research. Examples focus on the South African setting, highlighting regional conditions, diseases and health services.

IN THE WAR AGAINST DISEASES, THEY ARE THE SPECIAL FORCES.

They always keep a bag packed. They seldom have more than twenty-four hours' notice before they are dispatched. The phone calls that tell them to head to the airport, sometimes in the middle of the night, may give them no more information than the country they are traveling to and the epidemic they will tackle when they get there.

The universal human instinct is to run from an outbreak of disease. These doctors run toward it.

They are the disease detective corps of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the federal agency that tracks and tries to prevent disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks around the world. They are formally called the Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) -- a group founded more than fifty years ago out of fear that the Korean War might bring the use of biological weapons -- and, like intelligence operatives in the traditional sense, they perform their work largely in anonymity. They are not household names, but over the years they were first to confront the outbreaks that became known as hantavirus, Ebola virus, and AIDS. Now they hunt down the deadly threats that dominate our headlines: West Nile virus, anthrax, and SARS.

In this riveting narrative, Maryn McKenna -- the only journalist ever given full access to the EIS in its fifty-three-year history -- follows the first class of disease detectives to come to the CDC after September 11, the first to confront not just naturally occurring outbreaks but the man-made threat of bioterrorism. They are talented researchers -- many with young families -- who trade two years of low pay and extremely long hours for the chance to be part of the group that has helped eradicate smallpox, push back polio, and solve the first major outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease, toxic shock syndrome, and "E. coli" O157.

Urgent, exhilarating, and compelling, "Beating Back the Devil" goes with the EIS as they try to stop epidemics -- before the epidemics stop us.

The evolution of a classic The new 12th edition of Introduction to Genetic Analysis takes this cornerstone textbook to the next level. The hallmark focuses on genetic analysis, quantitative problem solving, and experimentation continue in this new edition while incorporating robust updates to the science. Introduction to Genetic Analysis is now supported in Achieve, Macmillan's new online learning platform. Achieve is the culmination of years of development work put toward creating the most powerful online learning tool for biology students. It houses all of our renowned assessments, multimedia assets, e-books, and instructor resources in a powerful new platform.

'Magisterial ... Immensely readable' Douglas Alexander, Financial Times 'Insightful, productively provocative and downright brilliant' New York Times A compelling history of catastrophes and their consequences, from 'the most brilliant British historian of his generation' (The Times) Disasters are inherently hard to predict. But when catastrophe strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all. Yet the responses of many developed countries to a new pathogen from China were badly bungled. Why? While populist rulers certainly performed poorly in the face of the pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work - pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters. Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics and network science, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe offers not just a history but a general theory of disaster. As Ferguson shows, governments must learn to become less bureaucratic if we are to avoid the impending doom of irreversible decline. 'Stimulating, thought-provoking ... Readers will find much to relish' Martin Bentham, Evening Standard

The definitive story of COVID-19 and how global politics shape our health - from a world-leading expert and the pandemic's go-to science communicator

Professor Devi Sridhar has risen to prominence for her vital roles in communicating science to the public and speaking truth to power. In Preventable she highlights lessons learned from outbreaks past and present in a narrative that traces the COVID-19 pandemic - including her personal experience as a scientist - and sets out a vision for how we can better protect ourselves from the inevitable health crises to come.

In gripping and heartfelt prose, Sridhar exposes the varied realities of those affected and puts you in the room with key decision makers at crucial moments. She vibrantly conveys the twists and turns of a plot that saw: deadlier varients emerge (contrary to the predictions of social media pundits who argued it would mutate to a milder form); countries with weak health systems like Senegal and Vietnam fare better than countries like the US and UK (which were consistently ranked as the most prepared); and the quickest development of game-changing vaccines in history (and their unfair distribution)

Combining science, politics, ethics and economics, this definitive book dissects the global structures that determine our fate, and reveals the deep-seated economic and social inequalities at their heart - it will challenge, outrage and inspire.

This book considers Sweden's pandemic management which differed so significantly from much of the rest of the world: it provoked intense and wide-reaching interest, curiosity and criticism. Trans-disciplinary Swedish authors from the humanities, life sciences, social sciences, and cultural studies use a variety of tools to mine deeper into some of the central elements and dimensions in their country's pandemic management such as understandings of freedom, the execution of power, denialism, exceptionalism, patriotism, the role of expertise and trust in the national state to give a deeper understanding of Sweden's decisions, failures, successes, and the lessons to be learned. Aimed at readers with interest in global health and politics it will also be of interest in disciplines such as virology,epidemiology, history, cultural studies, ethics, media studies, medicine and economics. The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

This volume investigates mediated lives and media narratives during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Asia as a focus point. It shows how the pandemic has created an unprecedented situation in this globalized world marked by many disruptions in the social, economic, political and cultural lives of individuals and communities - creating a 'new normal'. It explores the different media vocabularies of fear, panic, social distancing, and contagion from across Asian nations. It focuses on the role media played as most nations faced lockdowns and unique challenges during this crisis. From healthcare workers to sex workers, from racism to nationalism, from the plight of migrant workers in news reporting to state propaganda, this book brings critical questions confronting media professionals into focus. The volume will be of critical interest to scholars and researchers of media and communication studies, politics, especially political communication, social and public policy, and Asian studies.

Tamoxifen Tales: Suggestions for Scientific Survival presents a case study describing the academic journey of teams behind major advances in medical sciences, highlighting lessons learned that are applicable to the next generation of scientists. This book provides a manual on the successful mentoring of young scientists, including stories describing how training experience shaped careers to become leaders in academia and the pharmaceutical industry. The book documents Professor V. Craig Jordan's 50-year career in medical sciences that led to the discovery and development of Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators (SERMs), which became the standard of women's healthcare around the world. Additionally, it illustrates the versatility of a scientist with a commitment to serving societies. This important resource will be a useful and interesting book for established medical scientists, research mentors and advanced students wanting to chart a successful and impactful research career.

Sample Sizes for Clinical Trials, Second Edition is a practical book that assists researchers in their estimation of the sample size for clinical trials. Throughout the book there are detailed worked examples to illustrate both how to do the calculations and how to present them to colleagues or in protocols. The book also highlights some of the pitfalls in calculations as well as the key steps that lead to the final sample size calculation. Features: Comprehensive coverage of sample size calculations, including Normal, binary, ordinal, and survival outcome data Covers superiority, equivalence, non-inferiority, bioequivalence and precision objectives for both parallel group and crossover designs Highlights how trial objectives impact the study design with respect to both the derivation of sample formulae and the size of the study Motivated with examples of real-life clinical trials showing how the calculations can be applied New edition is extended with all chapters revised, some substantially, and four completely new chapters on multiplicity, cluster trials, pilot studies, and single arm trials The book is primarily aimed at researchers and practitioners of clinical trials and biostatistics, and could be used to teach a course on sample size calculations. The importance of a sample size calculation when designing a clinical trial is highlighted in the book. It enables readers to quickly find an appropriate sample size formula, with an associated worked example, complemented by tables to assist in the calculations.

Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Fourth Edition describes the analysis of survival data, illustrated using a wide range of examples from biomedical research. Written in a non-technical style, it concentrates on how the techniques are used in practice. Starting with standard methods for summarising survival data, Cox regression and parametric modelling, the book covers many more advanced techniques, including interval-censoring, frailty modelling, competing risks, analysis of multiple events, and dependent censoring. This new edition contains chapters on Bayesian survival analysis and use of the R software. Earlier chapters have been extensively revised and expanded to add new material on several topics. These include methods for assessing the predictive ability of a model, joint models for longitudinal and survival data, and modern methods for the analysis of interval-censored survival data. Features: Presents an accessible account of a wide range of statistical methods for analysing survival data Contains practical guidance on modelling survival data from the author's many years of experience in teaching and consultancy Shows how Bayesian methods can be used to analyse survival data Includes details on how R can be used to carry out all the methods described, with guidance on the interpretation of the resulting output Contains many real data examples and additional data sets that can be used for coursework All data sets used are available in electronic format from the publisher's website Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Fourth Edition is an invaluable resource for statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry and biomedical research centres, research scientists and clinicians who are analysing their own data, and students following undergraduate or postgraduate courses in survival analysis.

Covid-19 has given renewed, urgent attention to 'the pandemic' as a devastating, recurrent global phenomenon. Today the term is freely and widely used-but in reality, it has a long and contested history, centred on South Asia. Pandemic India is an innovative enquiry into the emergence of the idea and changing meaning of pandemics, exploring the pivotal role played by-or assigned to-India over the past 200 years. Using the perspectives of the social historian and the historian of medicine, and a wide range of sources, it explains how and why past pandemics were so closely identified with South Asia; the factors behind outbreaks' exceptional destructiveness in India; responses from society and the state, both during and since the colonial era; and how such collective catastrophes have changed lives and been remembered. Giving a 'long history' to India's current pandemic, the book offers comparisons with earlier epidemics of cholera, plague and influenza. David Arnold assesses the distinctive characteristics and legacies of each episode, tracking the evolution of public health strategies and containment measures. This is a historian's reflection on time as seen through the pandemic prism, and on the ways the past is used-or misused-to serve the present.

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, medical statistics and public health data have become staples of newsfeeds worldwide, with infection rates, deaths, case fatality and the mysterious R figure featuring regularly. However, we don't all have the statistical background needed to translate this information into knowledge. In this lively account, Stephen Senn explains these statistical phenomena and demonstrates how statistics is essential to making rational decisions about medical care. The second edition has been thoroughly updated to cover developments of the last two decades and includes a new chapter on medical statistical challenges of COVID-19, along with additional material on infectious disease modelling and representation of women in clinical trials. Senn entertains with anecdotes, puzzles and paradoxes, while tackling big themes including: clinical trials and the development of medicines, life tables, vaccines and their risks or lack of them, smoking and lung cancer, and even the power of prayer.

Features Includes multiple case studies. Suitable for scientists and professionals working on methods for mosquito control. Provides a much-needed focal point for interdisciplinary discussion.

Over the past decade, there have been many international calls to strengthen and support/sustain research capacity in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This capacity is considered an essential foundation for cost-effective healthcare systems. While there have been long-standing investments by many countries and research funding organisations in the training of individuals for this purpose, in many LMICs research capacity remains fragmented, uneven and fragile. There is growing recognition that a more systems-oriented approach to research capacity-building is required. Nonetheless, there are considerable gaps in the evidence for approaches to capacity-building that are effective and sustainable. This book addresses these gaps, capturing what was learned from teams working on The Global Health Research Initiative. This book brings together the experiences of research capacity-building teams co-led by Canadians and LMIC researchers in several regions of the world, including Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, South Africa and Uganda.

A "health disparity" refers to a higher burden of illness, injury, disability, or mortality experienced by one group relative to another. These disparities may be due to many factors including age, income, race, etc. This book will focus on their estimation, ranging from classical approaches including the quantification of a disparity, to more formal modelling, to modern approaches involving more flexible computational approaches. Features: * Presents an overview of methods and applications of health disparity estimation * First book to synthesize research in this field in a unified statistical framework * Covers classical approaches, and builds to more modern computational techniques * Includes many worked examples and case studies using real data * Discusses available software for estimation The book is designed primarily for researchers and graduate students in biostatistics, data science, and computer science. It will also be useful to many quantitative modelers in genetics, biology, sociology, and epidemiology.

One of the first books on Covid-19 from an expert in emerging infectious disease.

The Coronavirus pandemic has devastated lives and livelihoods around the world - and continues to do so. These personal tragedies will, and must, be told and heard. There is, however, also a truthful and objective scientific narrative to be written about how the virus played out and how the world set about dealing with it. Spike is that story - from the inside. Its author, Jeremy Farrar, is one of the UK's leading scientists and a ? member of the SAGE emergency committee.

As head of the Wellcome Trust, and an expert in emerging infectious diseases, Jeremy Farrar was one of the first people in the world to hear about a mysterious new respiratory disease in China - and to learn that it could readily spread between people. Farrar describes how it feels as one of the key scientists at the sharp end of a fast-moving situation, when complex decisions must be made quickly amid great uncertainty. His book casts light on the UK government's claims to be 'following the science' in its response to the virus, and is informed not just by Farrar's views but by interviews with other top scientists and political figures.

Farrar, who has spent his career on the frontlines of epidemics including Nipah virus in Malaysia, bird flu in Vietnam and Ebola in West Africa, also reflects on the wider issues of Covid-19: the breath-taking scientific advances in creating tests, treatments and vaccines; the challenge to world leaders to respond for the global good and the need to address inequalities that hold back success against the virus. All these shape how the world ultimately fares not just against Covid-19, but against all the major health challenges we face globally.

Description of basic ROC methodology; R and STATA code Example Datasets Not too technical Many topics not included in other books