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Books > Science & Mathematics > Physics > Applied physics & special topics > Geophysics
New Edition: Introduction to Earth Sciences (2nd Edition)Geophysics is concerned with the physical processes and properties of the Earth and its surrounding environment, and with the use of quantitative methods for their analysis. This book provides the general public, including students, faculties, and universities with a comprehensive presentation of geophysics suitable for first year undergraduate classes. The key focus is to familiarize readers with the concepts of elastic and electromagnetic wave propagation, which are central to geophysical studies. Elastic waves and electromagnetic waves are two important ways that energy is transported in the world around us. These important concepts are presented through examples giving readers a more comprehensive understanding of geophysics and what geophysicists do. Special focus is on earthquakes, volcanoes, energy resources, and climate which are the present and future challenges of our times.
New Edition: Introduction to Earth Sciences (2nd Edition)Geophysics is concerned with the physical processes and properties of the Earth and its surrounding environment, and with the use of quantitative methods for their analysis. This book provides the general public, including students, faculties, and universities with a comprehensive presentation of geophysics suitable for first year undergraduate classes. The key focus is to familiarize readers with the concepts of elastic and electromagnetic wave propagation, which are central to geophysical studies. Elastic waves and electromagnetic waves are two important ways that energy is transported in the world around us. These important concepts are presented through examples giving readers a more comprehensive understanding of geophysics and what geophysicists do. Special focus is on earthquakes, volcanoes, energy resources, and climate which are the present and future challenges of our times.
Basic Principles of Induction Logging provides geoscientists with the information required to survey the electrical conductivity of rocks surrounding a borehole. The formation conductivity distribution in the borehole vicinity is critical information required in formation evaluation and geosteering applications. Developing a theory of EM logging and on understanding basic physics for both wireline and LWD logging tools, this reference furnishes valuable insights for development and use of EM techniques in practical logging applications. Basic Principles of Induction Logging will be vital for anyone attempting to investigate, invent, and develop the next generation of EM logging tools. It will provide information required to enable operation in more challenging environments such as logging while drilling, anisotropic and thinly laminated formations, high angle and horizontal wells.
A 360-degree view of the response to flood risk As major flooding events around the world show, the impact of flooding on the built environment can cause widespread chaos. These flood events form part of a wider pattern of increasing flood frequency coupled with increased vulnerability of the built environment to flood hazard. Flood risk can unite or divide communities and the responses to potential risk can range from denial to perfect adaptation. Drawing on the experience of communities and experts, Flood Hazards: Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment offers guidance on managing urban flooding and flood risk. It brings together a diversity of viewpoints and experiences on flood impacts and responses from leading academics, flood restoration specialists, emergency responders, architects, planning consultants, insurers, policymakers, and community representatives. By including the perspective of the community and the views of households and businesses at risk, this volume makes a unique contribution to the literature on flood management. The chapter organization loosely corresponds to the phases of the disaster management cycle, covering emergency preparation and response; recovery, repair, and reconstruction; and mitigation and adaptation. Contributors examine the types of impacts and discuss forecasting and emergency warning. They describe processes and good practice in recovery of flood-damaged property from the perspectives of the insurance industry, restorers, and loss adjusters. The book also deals with business continuity, land-use planning, property-level and infrastructure protection, and urban drainage, looking at the regulation and design of the built environment as one way to reduce risk. A section on community response to flooding sheds light on the experiences of flood-affected families. Written for students, practitioners, and researchers in flood risk management, as well as for professionals who may encounter flood-related issues in the course of their work, this cross-disciplinary book makes a valuable contribution towards designing a future built environment that is more resilient to flood risk.
Estuaries in every country exemplify the same paradox - they are among the most productive ecosystems and also among the most impacted by anthropogenic activities. And although estuarine biodiversity is key to the ecological and economic health of coastal regions, estuaries are exposed to toxic effluents transported by rivers from remote and nearby conurbations and industrial and agricultural concerns, putting them at risk. Increased attention to environmental issues highlights the fragility and importance of estuaries and brings to the forefront the need for an up-to-date assessment of techniques. Environmental Assessment of Estuarine Ecosystems: A Case Study describes a comparative, multidisciplinary ecotoxicological study of two contrasting estuaries in France. Based on the results of this study, the book presents generalizations about how different techniques might be applied and interpreted in future, similar studies assessing the ecotoxicological status of these vital coastal systems. With contributions from international experts, this reference covers all aspects of estuaries from the physiological to the economical. It introduces the state-of-the-art science required to investigate ecotoxicological problems in many estuaries all over the world. Although carefully focused on a specific region, this book covers a broad range of environmental issues and solutions, demonstrating how various pieces of information can be integrated into a sound assessment. Understanding the observations about this region and the techniques used for its assessment provide a benchmark for assessing, remediating, and applying new developments to other estuaries.
Whether addressing pollution problems or helping protect a specific use, watershed associations are finding that the competition for funds is getting harder. While we can grasp the value of our streams for fishing or kayaking and other services, or their cultural value, or their value to an ecosystem, putting a dollar value on those benefits is not an easy task, but it is sometimes a necessary one. A handbook for advocates and stakeholders, Environmental Economics for Watershed Restoration provides guidance to those who are interested in understanding and incorporating economic valuation in project prioritization and other decision-making aspects of stream or watershed restoration. It provides background on the types of ecological goods and services that are often valued and details the types of questions that must be asked in watershed project analysis. The book allows those who are not economists to be comfortable discussing things like contingent valuation, marginal costs, nonmarket goods, and other terms needed to satisfy the economic analysis requirements often needed to secure funding for projects. In some cases, economic analysis does require input from a trained economist, but in many cases the analysis needed to get a grip on the problem can be tackled by someone familiar with the situation, as long as he or she has access to essential economic guidance. Environmental Economics for Watershed Restoration can provide that guidance.
While current methods used in ecological risk assessments for pesticides are largely deterministic, probabilistic methods that aim to quantify variability and uncertainty in exposure and effects are attracting growing interest from industries and governments. Probabilistic methods offer more realistic and meaningful estimates of risk and hence, potentially, a better basis for decision-making. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides examines the applicability of probabilistic methods for ecological risk assessment for pesticides and explores their appropriateness for general use. The book presents specific methods leading to probabilistic decisions concerning the registration and application of pesticides and includes case studies illustrating the application of statistical methods. The authors discuss Bayesian inference, first-order error analysis, first-order (non-hierarchical) Monte Carlo methods, second-order Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods, interval analysis, and probability bounds analysis. They then examine how these methods can be used in assessments for other environmental stressors and contaminants. There are many methods of analyzing variability and uncertainty and many ways of presenting the results. Inappropriate use of these methods leads to misleading results, and experts differ on what is appropriate. Disagreement about which methods are appropriate will result in wasted resources, conflict over findings, and reduced credibility with decision makers and the public. There is, therefore, a need to reach a consensus on how to choose and use appropriate methods, and to present this in the form of guidance for prospective users. Written in a clear and concise style, the book examines how to use probabilistic methods within a risk-based decision paradigm.
Environmental policy is often practiced reactively with each crisis addressed as an isolated event. Focusing on development of proactive policies, Global Environment Policy: Concepts, Principles, and Practice provides the essential scientific and socioeconomic framework for formulating pragmatic and comprehensive environmental policies. It discusses topics of interest to American and international audiences. Beginning with basic concepts, the book proceeds successively on to more advanced principles, theories, and practices for developing and implementing comprehensive environmental policy solutions. Topics are introduced in a logical, yet connected, user-friendly manner. Using practical case studies and examples, the book illustrates both the power and limitations of theoretical approaches. It defines the scope and nature of the environmental policy problem, outlining its origins and evolution, and introduces the policy frameworks of the United Nations, European Union, and the United States. Each chapter begins with a case study and ends with a problem set; the questions are designed to elicit practical and critical thinking. The book ends with two capstone problems that exemplify nearly every major topic and aspect presented in this book. Upon completion, students should possess the competency required to examine a real world problem, evaluate it in terms of the concepts, principles, and tools described throughout the book, and develop a practical policy solution for resolving that problem.
Helping you better understand the processes, instruments, and methods of aerosol spectroscopy, Fundamentals and Applications in Aerosol Spectroscopy provides an overview of the state of the art in this rapidly developing field. It covers fundamental aspects of aerosol spectroscopy, applications to atmospherically and astronomically relevant problems, and several aspects that need further research and development. Chapters in the book are arranged in order of decreasing wavelength of the light/electrons. The text starts with infrared spectroscopy, one of the most important aerosol characterization methods for laboratory studies, field measurements, remote sensing, and space missions. It then focuses on Raman spectroscopy for investigating aerosol processes in controlled laboratory studies and for analyzing environmental particles and atmospheric pollution. The next section discusses the use of cavity ring-down spectroscopy to measure light extinction, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy to identify and classify biological aerosol particles, and ultrafast laser techniques to improve the specificity of bioaerosol detection. The final section examines recent developments involving novel techniques based on UV, x-ray, and electron beam studies. This book offers the first comprehensive overview of the spectroscopy of aerosols. It includes some results for the first time in the literature and presents a unique link between fundamental aspects and applications.
The world's food production is undergoing a rapid and revolutionary transformation, but little is known about it and less is being done to question the wisdom of it. Within a very few years, much of what we eat will have been genetically engineered, without proper consideration of the issues of public health, consumer choice and ecological stability. Against the Grain argues that the consequences of this huge experiment could be catastrophic, and at the very least have been underestimated or ignored by the industries exploiting the new technologies. The authors have unearthed government and industry documents which show these new methods to be far from fail-safe or risk free. Comprehensively supported with facts and references, the book provides a full account of the science and technologies involved in producing 'transgenic plants'. It also explains the scale and speed of what is going on, and argues for full public accountability and control of new developments - before it is too late.
The ability to effectively monitor the atmosphere on a continuous basis requires remote sensing in microwave. Written for physicists and engineers working in the area of microwave sensing of the atmosphere, Ground-Based Microwave Radiometry and Remote Sensing: Methods and Applications is completely devoted to ground-based remote sensing. This text covers the fundamentals of microwave remote sensing, and examines microwave radiometric measurements and their applications. The book discusses the atmospheric influences on the electromagnetic spectrum, addresses the measurement of incoherent electromagnetic radiation from an object obeying the laws of radiation fundamentals, and explores the height limits in both the water vapor band and the oxygen band. The author describes the measurement technique of water vapor in the polar region, details studies of the measurement of integrated water vapor content by deploying a microwave radiometer, and presents several real-time pictures of radiometric and disdrometer measurements. Includes integrated water vapor and cloud liquid water models Contains measurements in adverse weather conditions Illustrates measurement technique in the Antarctic and Arctic regions Describes rain models in different locations including tropical, temperate regions along with radiometric measurement techniques Presents a definite model for measurement of propagation path delay The book summarizes the latest research results obtained in the area of measurements and modeling, describes the atmospheric influences on electromagnetic spectrum along with different gaseous and cloud models, and provides examples of radiometric retrievals from a variety of dynamic weather phenomena.
Around the world, on average, four coal miners die for each million tons of coal recovered. Improving the safety of mining work while responding to the need for increased coal production, however, is impossible without further development of the physics of mining processes. A relatively new branch of science, it tackles problems that arise during mineral products recovery, particularly safety issues such as rock failures, coal and gas outbursts, and methane explosions. The first book to present a unifying methodology for addressing problems such as outbursts and explosions of methane in coal mining, Physics of Coal and Mining Processes integrates theoretical and experimental research on coal and bearing rocks and examines the anthropogenic processes that occur during deep underground mining. The book summarizes the results of recent and established research, including studies conducted at the Institute of Physics of Mining Processes of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, headed by the author. Key topics covered include rock mass in multi-component compressive stress fields and phase conditions of methane in coal. The book also examines state-of-the-art instrumentation and physical methods of analysis, among them x-ray analysis of coal structures combined with computer simulation and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy combined with gas chromatography. Bridging the gap between the academic theory and the practice of coal mining, the book proposes novel methods to predict rock mass condition, control gas-dynamic phenomena, and estimate safe mining loads. A useful reference for scientists, technicians, and engineers working in the coal industry, it also offers an overview of the physics of mining processes for students pursuing careers in the field.
Develop a Greater Understanding of How and Why Surface Wave Testing Works Using examples and case studies directly drawn from the authors' experience, Surface Wave Methods for Near-Surface Site Characterization addresses both the experimental and theoretical aspects of surface wave propagation in both forward and inverse modeling. This book accents the key facets associated with surface wave testing for near-surface site characterization. It clearly outlines the basic principles, the theoretical framework and the practical implementation of surface wave analysis. In addition, it also describes in detail the equipment and measuring devices, acquisition techniques, signal processing, forward and inverse modeling theories, and testing protocols that form the basis of modern surface wave techniques. Review Examples of Typical Applications for This Geophysical Technique Divided into eight chapters, the book explains surface wave testing principles from data measurement to interpretation. It effectively integrates several examples and case studies illustrating how different ground conditions and geological settings may influence the interpretation of data measurements. The authors accurately describe each phase of testing in addition to the guidelines for correctly performing and interpreting results. They present variants of the test within a consistent framework to facilitate comparisons, and include an in-depth discussion of the uncertainties arising at each stage of surface wave testing. Provides a comprehensive and in-depth treatment of all the steps involved in surface wave testing Discusses surface wave methods and their applications in various geotechnical conditions and geological settings Explains how surface wave measurements can be used to estimate both stiffness and dissipative properties of the ground Addresses the issue of uncertainty, which is often an overlooked problem in surface wave testing Includes examples with comparative analysis using different processing techniques and inversion algorithms Outlines advanced applications of surface wave testing such as joint inversion, underwater investigation, and Love wave analysis Written for geotechnical engineers, engineering seismologists, geophysicists, and researchers, Surface Wave Methods for Near-Surface Site Characterization offers practical guidance, and presents a thorough understanding of the basic concepts.
Poor Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) practice leads to poorly planned projects, and ultimately poor environmental protection. Written by recognized NEPA authority Charles H. Eccleston, The EIS Book: Managing and Preparing Environmental Impact Statements supplies focused direction on preparing an EIS, highlighting best professional practices (BBP) and lessons learned from case law that provide valuable direction for preparing legally defensible documents. The book is not about preparing bigger or more complicated EISs-but better ones. Beginning with fundamental topics and advancing into successively more advanced subjects, Eccleston describes EIS preparation as a comprehensive framework for planning future actions, rather than merely a document preparation procedure. He supplies direction for preparing defensible analyses that facilitate well-planned projects and improved decision-making. Discusses EIS document requirements including the Council of Environmental Quality's NEPA regulations and related guidelines, EPA guidance and requirements, presidential executive orders, and case law Covers how to perform a legally sufficient cumulative impact assessment and how to evaluate greenhouse emissions and climate change Details a step-by-step approach for navigating the entire EIS process that includes all pertinent process requirements from issuing the notice of intent, through public scoping, to issuing the final record of decision (ROD) Includes analytical requirements for preparing the EIS analysis and guidance for performing various types of analyses Provides tools, techniques, and best professional practices for preparing the EIS and performing the analysis Presents a case study that reinforces key EIS regulatory requirements, and integrates lessons learned from this case study with appropriate regulatory requirements The book gives readers a firm grasp of the process for preparing an EIS, including all key regulatory requirements that a legally sufficient EIS document must satisfy. No other book synthesizes all such requirements and guidance into a single source for easy and rapid access.
Because prevailing atmospheric/troposcopic conditions greatly influence radio wave propagation above 10 GHz, the unguided propagation of microwaves in the neutral atmosphere can directly impact many vital applications in science and engineering. These include transmission of intelligence, and radar and radiometric applications used to probe the atmosphere, among others. Where most books address either one or the other, Microwave Propagation and Remote Sensing: Atmospheric Influences with Models and Applications melds coverage of these two subjects to help readers develop solutions to the problems they present. This reference offers a brief, elementary account of microwave propagation through the atmosphere and discusses radiometric applications in the microwave band used to characterize and model atmospheric constituents, which is also known as remote sensing. Summarizing the latest research results in the field, as well as radiometric models and measurement methods, this book covers topics including: Free space propagation Reflection, interference, polarization, and other key aspects of electromagnetic wave propagation Radio refraction and its effects on propagation delay Methodology of estimating water vapor attenuation using radiosonde data Knowledge of rain structures and use of climatological patterns to estimate/measure attenuation of rain, snow, fog, and other prevalent atmospheric particles and human-made substances Dual/multifrequency methodology to deal with the influence of clouds on radiometric attenuation Deployment of microwaves to ascertain various tropospheric conditions Composition and characteristics of the troposphere, to help readers fully understand microwave propagation Derived parameters of water, free space propagation, and conditions and variable constituents such as water vapor and vapor pressure, density, and ray bending
There are thousands of environmental analyses prepared each year to meet the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and similar programs. Written by an expert with 35 years of experience in environmental consulting, research, and education, Environmental Impact Analysis: Process and Methods makes the preparation of EIAs not only easier but more thorough. It provides a guide to successfully preparing analyses that are legally defensible; establish the base for environmental protection; and produce better projects, plans, and policies. Following an informal description of the legal requirements, the book breaks down the analysis process into a logical flow of steps and available methods to identify impacts, compare alternatives, and develop impact mitigation measures. The author illustrates each step and analysis method with examples from case studies he managed, providing insight not available from an independent review of the cases. He offers a comprehensive and consistent approach to analysis with each chapter building on information presented in previous sections. The book also describes methods from other programs such as hazardous waste clean-up and Natural Resources Damage Assessment and explains how they can be adapted for use in environmental impact analysis. It compares a diverse array of multi-level environmental impact analysis approaches. Readers learn not only how to produce an environmental document that meets regulations but also clearly maximizes the benefits of the analysis and results in a more useful product with strong stakeholder support.
Under the best of circumstances, preparing an environmental impact assessment (EIA) can be a complex and challenging task. Experience indicates that the scope and quality of such analyses varies widely throughout the U.S. as well as internationally. Written to help practitioners and decision-makers apply best professional practices in the development of EIAs, Environmental Impact Assessment: A Guide to Best Professional Practices provides an in depth, yet practical direction for developing a defensible analysis that meets best professional practices. The book describes preparation of five distinct types of assessments: Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) Preparing Greenhouse Emission Assessments Preparing Risk Assessments and Accident Analyses Social Impact Assessment (SIA) and Environmental Justice The International Environmental Impact Assessment Process Guiding Principles To date, there is significant variation and disagreement about how such analyses should be prepared. The author introduces best professional practices (BPP) for preparing such EIAs that is intended to meet decision-making and regulatory expectations. He supplies a comprehensive and balanced skill set of tools, techniques, concepts, principles, and practices for preparing these assessments. He also includes directions for developing a comprehensive Environmental Management Systems which can be used to monitor and implement final decisions for such analyses. While the book references the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), most of this guidance is generally applicable to any international EIA process consistent with NEPA. With thorough coverage of all aspects of assessments, the book presents a theoretical introduction to the subject as well as practical guidance. It delivers state-of-the-art tools, techniques, and approaches for resolving EIA problems.
This book describes the discovery of the stratosphere itself and of various unexpected phenomena in the stratosphere: e.g., a manned balloon flight in 1901 as high as 11 km; an expedition to Lake Victoria in Africa in 1908 which found inexplicable west winds in the stratosphere above the equator; and the discovery of the ozone layer in the 1930s, the Berlin Phenomenon in 1952, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in 1960, the influence of volcanic eruptions in 1970, the ozone hole in 1984, and the influence of the 11-year solar cycle in 1987. The book also describes how these phenomena are connected with each other and how they create variability in the climate system, in addition to man-made changes, such as the decrease in ozone. We use the stratosphere as one example of Nature's complexity and of how often discoveries are ignored because they do not fit prevalent concepts.
This book provides an analysis of an actual problem of the evolution of deep matter under the conditions of the upper mantle, transition zone, and uppermost lower mantle. This issue has a fundamental importance in geochemistry, petrology, mineralogy, and crystalochemistry of the mantle, at different depths. The authors discuss new experimental research on the composition and conditions of the chromium-bearing minerals genesis and their associations in the Earth's mantle. The experimental data are compared with the natural mineral assemblages, allowing a refinement of the structure and composition of the deep Geospheres of the Earth. The results of the physicochemical experiments in the "MgO-SiO2-Cr2O3" model and the multicomponent systems play a major role in understanding the phase diagrams of these systems, the structural patterns of chromium-bearing phases and the influence of Cr on P-T parameters in the Earth's mantle.
Social trust is a crucial issue to many aspects of modern society. Policy makers continually aspire to winning it and corporations frequently run the risk of losing it. The 'trust deficit' raises vital questions and problems to which until recently there have been few answers or solutions. Experts from both sides of the Atlantic explore the importance for trust of various influences, from individual perceptions to organizational systems, and consider the conditions involved in building or undermining trust. Several authors examine practical hazard management issues, including medical vaccination programmes and popular participation in pollution control and waste management as strategies for enhancing social trust. This book provides insightful analysis for researchers and students of environmental and social sciences and is essential reading for those engaged in risk management in both the public and private sectors.
Written as a reference for geophysicists, seismic surveyors and engineers in the mining, hydrocarbon and water industries this book attempts to recommend solutions to problems commonly experienced in the field. It recommends careful planning and executions of operations at this stage of resources exploration, results in large cost and time saving.
This book presents in a concise format a simplified and coherent geological-dynamical history of the Indian subcontinent (including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Southern Tibet and Pakistan). Encompassing a broad array of information related to structure and tectonics, stratigraphy and palaeontology, sedimentation and palaeogeography, petrology and geochemistry, geomorphology and geophysics, it explores the geodynamic developments that took place from the beginning around 3.4 billion years ago to the last about 5,000 years before present. Presented in a distilled form, the observations and deductions of practitioners, this book is meant for teachers, researchers and students of geology, geophysics and geomorphology and practitioners of earth sciences. A comprehensive list of references to original works provides guidance for those seeking further details and who wish to examine selected problems in depth. The book is illustrated with a wealth of maps, cross sections and block diagrams - all simplified and redesigned.
This newly-translated book takes the reader from the basic principles and conservation laws of hydrodynamics to the description of general atmospheric circulation. Among the topics covered are the Kelvin, Ertel and Rossby-Obukhov invariants, quasi-geostrophic equation, thermal wind, singular Helmholtz vortices, derivation of the Navier-Stokes equation, Kolmogorov's flow, hydrodynamic stability, and geophysical boundary layers. Generalizing V. Arnold's approach to hydrodynamics, the author ingeniously brings in an analogy of Coriolis forces acting on fluid with motion of the Euler heavy top and shows how this is used in the analysis of general atmospheric circulation. This book is based on popular graduate and undergraduate courses given by F.V.Dolzhansky at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, and is the result of the author's highly acclaimed work in Moscow's Laboratory of Geophysical Hydrodynamics. Each chapter is full of examples and figures, exercises and hints, motivating and illustrating both theoretical and experimental results. The exposition is comprehensive yet user-friendly in engaging and exploring the broad range of topics for students and researchers in mathematics, physics, meteorology and engineering. "
China Satellite Navigation Conference (CSNC 2020) Proceedings presents selected research papers from CSNC 2020 held during 22nd-25th November in Chengdu, China. These papers discuss the technologies and applications of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and the latest progress made in the China BeiDou System (BDS) especially. They are divided into 13 topics to match the corresponding sessions in CSNC2020, which broadly covered key topics in GNSS. Readers can learn about the BDS and keep abreast of the latest advances in GNSS techniques and applications.
Uncertainty in Policy Making explores how uncertainty is interpreted and used by policy makers, experts and politicians. It argues that conventional notions of rational, evidence-based policy making - hailed by governments and organisations across the world as the only way to make good policy - is an impossible aim in highly complex and uncertain environments; the blind pursuit of such a 'rational' goal is in fact irrational in a world of competing values and interests. The book centres around two high-profile and important case studies: the Iraq war and climate change policy in the US, UK and Australia. Based on three years' research, including interviews with experts such as Hans Blix, Paul Pillar, and Brian Jones, these two case studies show that the treatment of uncertainty issues in specialist advice is largely determined by how well the advice fits with or contradicts the policy goals and orientation of the policy elite. Instead of allowing the debates to be side-tracked by arguments over whose science or expert advice is 'more right', we must accept that uncertainty in complex issues is unavoidable and recognise the values and interests that lie at the heart of the issues. The book offers a 'hedging' approach which will enable policy makers to manage rather than eliminate uncertainty. |
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