At this time when regulatory agencies are accepting and actively encouraging probabilistic approaches and the attribution of overall uncertainty among inputs to support Value of Information analyses, a comprehensive sourcebook on methods for addressing variability and uncertainty in exposure analysis is sorely needed. This need is adroitly met in Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment. A host of expert contributors provide a straightforward introduction to the practical tools for addressing variability and uncertainty in support of environmental and human health decision making. 151 graphs, plots, charts, and figures supplement a broad range of detailed and practical examples.

* Instant Wall Street Journal bestseller * Translated into 18 languages * #1 Most Recommended Book of the year (Bloomberg annual survey of CEOs and entrepreneurs) * An Bloomberg, Financial Times, Forbes, Inc., Newsweek, Strategy + Business, Tech Crunch, Washington Post Best Business Book of the year * Recommended by Bill Gates, Daniel Kahneman, Malcolm Gladwell, Dan Pink, Adam Grant, Susan Cain, Sid Mukherjee, Tim Ferriss Why do good teams kill great ideas? Loonshots reveals a surprising new way of thinking about the mysteries of group behavior that challenges everything we thought we knew about nurturing radical breakthroughs. Safi Bahcall, a physicist and entrepreneur, shows why teams, companies, or any group with a mission will suddenly change from embracing new ideas to rejecting them, just as flowing water will suddenly change into brittle ice. Mountains of print have been written about culture. Loonshots identifies the small shifts in structure that control this transition, the same way that temperature controls the change from water to ice. Using examples that range from the spread of fires in forests to the hunt for terrorists online, and stories of thieves and geniuses and kings, Bahcall shows how a new kind of science can help us become the initiators, rather than the victims, of innovative surprise. Over the past decade, researchers have been applying the tools and techniques of this new science--the science of phase transitions--to understand how birds flock, fish swim, brains work, people vote, diseases erupt, and ecosystems collapse. Loonshots is the first to apply this science to the spread of breakthrough ideas. Bahcall distills these insights into practical lessons creatives, entrepreneurs, and visionaries can use to change our world. Along the way, readers will learn how chickens saved millions of lives, what James Bond and Lipitor have in common, what the movie The Imitation Game got wrong about World War II, and what really killed Pan Am, Polaroid, and the Qing Dynasty. "If The Da Vinci Code and Freakonomics had a child together, it would be called Loonshots." --Senator Bob Kerrey

Concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere have increased dramatically over the last century and many of these changes are attributable to anthropogenic activities. The influence of acid rain has been well studied, but there has been no extensive exploration of other pollutants, such as toxic chemicals, heavy metals and radionuclides. Natural ecosystems, especially forests, tend to accumulate many of these pollutants which subsequently can affect ecosystem health. These contaminants may be very damaging to the environment in Eastern Europe, where the rapid disappearance of forest is the result not only of contamination but also of poor forest management practices. The current book is designed to reduce the uncertainty in our current knowledge of forest radioecology. The three topics it embraces are (a) Modelling, (b) Measurements and Data, and (c) Countermeasures and Risk Assessment.

Human health as well as aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are threatened from increa sing levels of environmental radiation of various sources, many of them of anthropoge nic causality: large areas of the former Soviet Union suffer from radioactive pollution, in particular after the Chemobyl accident; the increase in the incidence of UVB radiati on at the Earth's surface as a result of a progressive depletion of stratospheric ozone is a global problem that requires international concerted actions; in areas of former uranium mining the natural radiation level is substantially increased due to elevated radon levels; a growing portion of the population involved in air traffic is exposed to increased levels of natural radiation; and with the International Space Station an increasing number of astronauts will be exposed to the complex field of cosmic radiation. To estimate the corresponding risks, a better knowledge of the underlying radiobiological mechanisms at the molecular, cellular and system level is required. This book is the result of a multidisciplinary effort to discuss the current state of knowledge of the fundamental processes that result from interactions of environmental radiation -ionizing as well as UV radiation -with living matter and the existing radiati on protection concepts, and then to define future research work needed as fundamental information for the assessment of risks from increased levels of environmental radiation to human health and ecosystem balance. It comprises the key lectures and statements presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop.

This volume contains selected papers that were presented at the International Conference COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE 1997 held at London Business School on December 15-17 1997. Formerly known as Neural Networks in the Capital Markets (NNCM), this series of meetings has emerged as a truly multi-disciplinary international conference and provided an international focus for innovative research on the application of a multiplicity of advanced decision technologies to many areas of financial engineering. It has drawn upon theoretical advances in financial economics and robust methodological developments in the statistical, econometric and computer sciences. To reflect its multi-disciplinary nature, the NNCM conference has adopted the new title COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE. The papers in this volume are organised in six parts. Market Dynamics and Risk, Trading and Arbitrage strategies, Volatility and Options, Term-Structure and Factor models, Corporate Distress Models and Advances on Methodology. This years' acceptance rate (38%) reflects both the increasing interest in the conference and the Programme Committee's efforts to improve the quality of the meeting year-on-year. I would like to thank the members of the programme committee for their efforts in refereeing the papers. I also would like to thank the members of the computational finance group at London Business School and particularly Neil Burgess, Peter Bolland, Yves Bentz, and Nevil Towers for organising the meeting.

This volume contains a collection of papers presented at the 13th Interna- tional Conference on MUltiple Criteria Decision Making held in Cape Town during 6--10 January 1997. This was one of the regular conferences of the International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, which are held at approximately two-yearly intervals. The 13th conference was attended by 143 delegates from 35 countries, and 123 papers were presented. Some of the papers which were presented are included in another volume published by Springer, namely the "festschrift" for Professor Stanley Zionts of Buffalo, New York, entitled Essays in Decision rnaJcing: A Volume in Honour of Stan- ley Zionts (edited by Mark H Karwan, Jaap Spronk and Jyrki Wallenius). The present volume provides a record of the technical part of the pro- ceedings of the conference. In reflecting back on January 1997, however, memories return of the social occasions, and the camaraderie which devel- oped amongst the MCDM community. Early January, at the height of the southern summer, is carnival time in Cape Town, and the mood is infectious, and was enhanced amongst those from the northern hemisphere (the major- ity of delegates) who overnight went from winter'chills (as low as -30 C) to over 30 C.

"Whether by design, accident or merely synchronicity, Checkland appears to have developed a habit of writing seminal publications near the start of each decade which establish the basis and framework for systems methodology research for that decade." Hamish Rennie, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1992

Thirty years ago Peter Checkland set out to test whether the Systems Engineering (SE) approach, highly successful in technical problems, could be used by managers coping with the unfolding complexities of organizational life. The straightforward transfer of SE to the broader situations of management was not possible, but by insisting on a combination of systems thinking strongly linked to real-world practice Checkland and his collaborators developed an alternative approach - Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) - which enables managers of all kinds and at any level to deal with the subtleties and confusions of the situations they face. This work established the now accepted distinction between ‘hard’ systems thinking, in which parts of the world are taken to be ‘systems’ which can be ‘engineered’, and ‘soft’ systems thinking in which the focus is on making sure the process of inquiry into real-world complexity is itself a system for learning. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981) and Soft Systems Methodology in Action (1990) together with an earlier paper Towards a Systems-based Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving (1972) have long been recognized as classics in the field. Now Peter Checkland has looked back over the three decades of SSM development, brought the account of it up to date, and reflected on the whole evolutionary process which has produced a mature SSM. SSM: A 30-Year Retrospective, here included with Systems Thinking, Systems Practice closes a chapter on what is undoubtedly the most significant single research programme on the use of systems ideas in problem solving. Now retired from full-time university work, Peter Checkland continues his research as a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellow.

How do managers of a firm choose between alternative finan cial policies? Can the choice of a particular financial policy affect the value of the firm? Since the early 1960s, the debate on these questions has been lively and interesting as economists have inves tigated the effect on the value of the firm of relaxing the various assumptions in the celebrated Modigliani-Miller theory. Further more, even if we stick to the MM-assumptions (that is, we assume perfect and complete capital markets, no taxes and symmetric information), and we therefore know that only optimally chosen investments determine firm's value, another interesting question arises: How does the structure of ownership affect investment de cisions (and, in turn, values)? This research monograph attempts to analyze some of the issues involved in this debate. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics and is intended to appeal to mathematical economists as well as economists and mathemati cians. It is meant to deal with economically relevant problems in a mathematically adequate way. To decide whether or not it succeeds in this task, it is up to the reader. I am greatly indebted to Dr. Margaret Bray for her supervi sion of my PhD thesis in Economics at the London School of Eco nomics from which this book resulted. She helped me as friend and adviser through many struggles in the last three years and invested a great amount of work in this thesis."

Recent debate in both Europe and North America has focussed on how clinicians make judgments and decisions, how these may be evaluated and how they could be improved. This volume provides students, teachers and practitioners with a comprehensive introduction to the main descriptive and prescriptive approaches to judgment and decision making in clinical medicine. The contributors, who include psychologists, economists, decision theorists, statisticians, lawyers and sociologists, as well as medical specialists, provide examples of recent empirical research and its applications, as well as outlining the relevant concepts and theories. Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert ('knowledg-based') systems and decision analysis are the main techniques introduced, with attention to both their methodological bases and practical evaluation. Also included in the collection are a series of papers which consider the economic, ethical and legal contexts of clinical activity and the education and wider socialization of clinicians. Issues surrounding the 'cost-effective' use of resources, the obtaining of 'informed consent' from patients and ethical behaviour under uncertainty are highlighted.

Network optimization is important in the modeling of problems and processes from such fields as engineering, computer science, operations research, transportation, telecommunication, decision support systems, manufacturing, and airline scheduling. Recent advances in data structures, computer technology, and algorithm development have made it possible to solve classes of network optimization problems that until recently were intractable. The refereed papers in this volume reflect the interdisciplinary efforts of a large group of scientists from academia and industry to model and solve complicated large-scale network optimization problems.

The organizers of the 12th International Conference on Multiple Cri teria Decision Making (MCDM) held June 19-23, 1995 in Hagen received the second time the opportunity to prepare an international conference on MCDM in Germany; the first opportunity has been the 3rd International Conference on MCDM in Konigswinter, 1979. Quite a time ellapsed since then and therefore it might be interesting to compare some indicators of the development of the International Society on MCDM, which has been founded in Konigswinter. Stanley Zionts has been elected first president and all 44 participants of that Conference became founding members. Today our Society has over 1200 members and its own Journal (MCDM World Scan). In Hagen, 1996, we had 152 participants from 34 countries. It is interesting to mention that also other Groups established their organi zation, like the European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid, the German Working Group on Decision Theory and Applications, the Multi Objective Programming and Goal Programming Group, ESIGMA, and some others. It is also interesting to note that the intersection of members of all these Groups and Societies is not empty and there is quite a cooperation among them."

In a time when the world is facing significant challenges, leaders who work for justice and equity for all people are necessary. Transformative Leadership in Action: Allyship, Advocacy, and Activism challenges the reader to do the essential self-work required of a 21st century leader, and provides the road map to developing the skills necessary to take on increasing public leadership roles to support causes related to justice and equity. Shining a light on unexplored, yet crucial, components of the discussion around the apex of leadership and social justice, Bruce and McKee first investigate the tie between social justice work and leadership competencies grounded in theory. Second, they put forward a pedagogical guide in teaching at this apex-engaging both the instructor and student(s) in unique learning journeys. Offering insight for educators, current leaders, and future leaders, this book is a crucial resource - providing go-to support for engaging in allyship, advocacy, and activism for justice and equity. If you want your learners to be leaders and not just think about leadership, this is the book you need.

Most real-life problems involve making decisions to optimally achieve a number of criteria while satisfying some hard or soft constraints. In this book several methods for solving such problems are presented by the leading experts in the area. The book also contains a number of very interesting application papers which demonstrate theoretical modelling, analysing and solution of real-life problems.

This book is the cuhnination of many years' research inspired by the pioneering and seminal works of Sah and Stiglitz. We gratefully acknowledge the influence of these two authors, whose ideas and contributions have brought us together on this collabo ration, despite our divergent scientific backgrounds (while Catalani is interested in quantitative methods, Clerico is a non-quantitative economist) . We thank the Editor of the Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali for permission to use slightly modified versions of papers published in that Review (they are the content of Chapters I and III of Part I, and of Chapter I of Part II). We heartily thank Ms. Laura McLean for carefully revising our English. The publication of this book has been made possible by a grant from the Department of Economics, University of Turin, Italy. Torino, July 1995 Mario S. Catalani Giuseppe F. CIeri co CONTENTS Introduction 1 PART I Some models of decision making structures I. How and when unanimity is a superior decision rule 15 II. Majority rules and efficiency of the decision process 31 III. Team cooperation vs. independent assessment 41 IV. Leadership and dependence 59 V. The decision making process of political organizations 75 PART II Pyramid decision structures I. Pyramidal structures: a preliminary note 91 II. Other properties of pyramids 103 III. Pyramids and dependence 117 IV. Organization, loyalty, and efficiency 133 Conclusions 151 References 163 Mario S."

In practical management, a policy maker often has to make a choice from among various alternatives. Quite often, there are several conflicting criteria to take into account. In addition, some criteria are non-numeric: they can only be expressed as `more' or `less'. The QUALIFLEX method for multicriteria analysis has been developed by the Netherlands Economic Institute to handle such problems. It is designed for use at all levels of decision making, both in the public and private sector. QUALIFLEX has the following features: simultaneous use of qualitative and quantitative data; full flexibility with regard to alternatives and criteria; scores in their own, natural measures; different weighting options for the criteria; sensitivity analysis of the relative weights of the criteria; the result is an optimal ranking of the alternatives. GBP/LISTGBP The Decision Support System QUALIFLEX 2.3 is a fully revised version of the program Micro-Qualiflex. The main improvements are: now user friendly and menu driven; graphical presentation; reversibility and data editing; optional input from (dBase) files.

An insight into the latest results from the world of operations research - a wide-ranging field, as is shown by the book's 24 sections, corresponding to the conference program itself. Although problems of a primarily methodological nature are discussed, the emphasis is placed firmly on practical subjects, such as reports from the fields of healthcare, environmental protection, logistics and traffic engineering. This selection also clearly illustrates the extent to which OR is spreading into and already interwoven in other scientific disciplines.

When you start a new managerial role, there is an inevitable contrast between what you believed you would find and what you're actually faced with. And Now What? helps you manage this gap between expectation and reality, ensuring that you get off to the best possible start in your new job. This book is structured in two parts, and it begins by offering readers a panoramic perspective of what a 'landing' entails in terms of personal self-leadership and managing people and uncertainty. The first part of the book reviews the process of taking charge in your new role, from preparation through to implementation. The second part presents a range of case studies arranged in order of increasing professional responsibility, allowing the reader to take a trip from the first stages of a professional leader's life to the highest responsibilities of a chairperson's role - experiencing changes, promotions, exits, internationalizations and take-offs along the way. The most important thing for a leader is not to discover how to motivate, but to better understand their reasons for motivating others. In this way, you can think of the leadership journey as both a personal and a professional adventure.

Planning in a general sense is concerned with the design of communication and decision making mechanisms in organizations where information and choice are decentralized. Non-cooperative planning theory as it is developed in this book treats the incentive aspects hereof. It stresses how strategic behavior and opportunism may impede planning, and how this can be coped with via the organization of communication and decision making, the design of information and control systems, and the development of incentive schemes. In particular, the book contains a thorough investigation of incentive provision in information production.

From profiles and interviews with the world's leading venture capitalists and high-profile coaches of business founders, A Dozen Lessons distills a set of bedrock methods for approaching business questions and creating value. The veteran business writer Tren Griffin takes the reader through the investment philosophies of VC luminaries such as Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital, Marc Andreesen and Ben Horowitz of Andreesen Horowitz, and Jenny Lee of GGV Capital to draw out a set of guiding principles that successful businesses follow. With insight and verve, Griffin argues that venture capital is, at a fundamental level, a service business that depends hugely on "human factors." Griffin suggests that, among a number of common features, these investors succeeded because of their sense of hustle, keen judgment, hard work, and good luck. But most of all, they share a deep love of building businesses that goes beyond financial considerations. Griffin reminds us that success is a multidimensional phenomenon requiring talented people, customer traction, productive partnerships, and brand value. These features amplify one another, with incremental success attracting more attention, talent, and investment.