To understand public policy decisions, it is imperative to understand the capacities of the individual actors who are making them, how they think and feel about their role, and what drives and motivates them. However, the current literature takes little account of this, preferring instead to frame the decisions as the outcomes of a rational search for value-maximising alternatives; or the result of systematic and well-ordered institutional and organisational processes.

Yet understanding how personal and emotional factors interact with broader institutional and organisational influences to shape the deliberations and behaviour of politicians and bureaucrats is paramount if we are to construct a more useful, nuanced and dynamic picture of government decision making. This book draws on a variety of approaches to examine individuals working in contemporary government, from freshly-trained policy officers to former cabinet ministers and prime ministers. It provides important new insights into how those in government navigate their way through complex issues and decisions based on developed expertise that fuses formal, rational techniques with other learned behaviours, memories, emotions and practiced forms of judgment at an individual level.

This innovative collection from leading academics across Australia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and North America will be of great interest to researchers, educators, advanced students and practitioners working in the fields of political science, public management and administration and public policy.

Learn how to take risks, thrive and build your dream career. 'Sukhinder is one of Silicon Valley's most well-respected leaders. Her unique style of authenticity, optimism and hustle will help anyone unlock their career potential' - Eric Schmidt, former chairman & CEO, Google Each one of us dreams of possibility - in our careers and in our personal lives. But our pursuit of possibility is hamstrung by 'The Myth of the Single Choice' that has led us to believe that one large choice stands between us and success, and that a single failure may topple us should we choose 'wrongly'. We let fear trump possibility: we become paralyzed. Sukhinder Singh Cassidy is one of the most well-respected leaders in Silicon Valley, but her path to success has been far from linear. While she has started three companies including theBoardlist, and has served as president of StubHub, she's also encountered failed choices, misfires, and all other types of pitfalls that she had to learn how to overcome and incorporate into her new path forward. Drawing on her own experience and those of other leaders, Sukhinder shows that when people thrive, it's because their fear of missing out on an opportunity overtakes their fear of failure, and compels them to take action. Better yet, they keep acting, building a fundamental risk-taking muscle that under weighs the importance of any single choice in favour of continually 'choosing'. Choose Possibility is a thrilling and insightful new way to approach risk-taking and achieve lasting success. 'An excellent guide to help anyone learn how to take risks in their own careers and thrive' - Kai-Fu Lee, chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures and author of bestseller AI Superpowers

'The way that Ricardo Semler runs his company is impossible; except th at it works, and works splendidly for everyone. I relish this book. It revived my faith in human beings and my hope for business everywher e' Charles Handy--Workers make the decisions previously made by their bosses--Managerial staff set their own salaries and bonuses--Everyone has access to the company books--No formality - a minimum of meetings, memos and approvals--Internal walls torn down--Shopfloor workers set their own productivity targets and schedulesResu lt - Semco is one of Latin America's fastest-growing companies, acknow ledged to be the best in Brazil to work for, and with a waiting list o f thousands of applicants hoping to join it. This book offers the chanc e to learn Ricardo Semler's secrets and let some of the Semco magic ru b off on you and your company

Volume 12, Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, is a blind refereed serial publication. It presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as supply chain, health care, prospecting for donations from university alumni, and the use of clustering and regression in forecasting. The orientation of this volume is for business applications for both the researcher and the practitioner of forecasting. Volume 12 is divided into three sections: Forecasting Applications, Predictive Analytics and Time Series. An interdisciplinary group of experts explore wide-ranging topics including multi-criteria scoring models, detecting rare events, the assessment of control charts for intermittent data, and fuzzy time series models.

The corporate university is a whole-organisation endeavour for today, tomorrow and for the future, raising questions about the size and shape of your business and where you aim to reach. This book introduces you to the major areas of corporate university performance and value management, examining the evolution of the corporate university alongside emergent business challenges. It provides the pieces of a large jigsaw puzzle for you to assemble using the key disciplines and skills within your organisation. Change is an integral part of business life, and it can seriously affect your company's value. Gaining a good understanding of how all business processes add value to your company is vital. The aim of this book is to help you to access new ways to create a widespread culture of people and organisational development. You will discover effective management practices that will help you and your colleagues to become the leading agents of continuous change and development in all parts of your organisation. With the help of the corporate university model, your company can develop business solutions to resolve the challenges ahead in a changing world.

Praise for Risk budgeting

"Professor Pearson has raised the bar for books on market risk. Moving beyond descriptions of VaR calculation and stress testing, he provides careful discussions of both the refinements and the limits of the VaR technique. Even more importantly, this book provides structure to the heretofore vague idea of ‘risk budgeting.’ "
–Charles Smithson, Managing Partner, Rutter Associates

"Pearson has written an excellent resource for risk management practitioners who actually need to compute and use VaR. Numerous concrete examples make a broad range of VaR techniques accessible to the people who actually need to use them. The book also provides tangible applications of risk budgeting, a term often used but rarely made relevant. Pearson has put meat on the bones for plan sponsors who want to actually employ risk budgeting techniques."
–Bennett Golub, Co-head of Risk Management and Analytics,
Founding Partner, BlackRock

"An excellent book. This text provides a bridge from the theoretical to the practical, and clears the fog between the buzzwords of risk budgeting and the realities of a useful new portfolio management tool. Pearson’s writing is well balanced between needed academic foundation and the practicalities of managing portfolios."
–Rob Roy, Director, Cash and Investments, Adventist Health System

"I just wish I could summarize this book as ably as Professor Pearson summarizes the voluminous literature on Value-at-Risk. Unfortunately, I suspect no further compression is possible. To reduce the risk of reading rubbish, your best bet is to read this book."
–Dr. Peter Carr, Senior Consultant, Risk Capital Management

Praise for The Risk Management Process

"True to its claim, The Risk Management Process is a rigorous yet lucid and broadly accessible account of how the timeless principles of corporate finance apply to the management of risk. Written by an experienced consultant with impeccable academic credentials and incisive analytical thinking, this book is a must-read for the senior manager and corporate treasurer who aspire to integrate risk management with corporate financial management and business strategy."–George M. Constantinides, Leo Melamed Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business

"Christopher Culp’s The Risk Management Process: Business Strategy and Tactics is a comprehensive treatment of the issues that face risk managers today. His book constructs a bridge to connect the theory and the practice of risk management, and Culp leads readers over that bridge with great care."–Peter Tufano, Sylvan C. Coleman Professor of Financial Management, Harvard Business School

"An unusually simple and lucid analysis of the risk management process. This book will be valuable for anyone trying to manage financial risk."–Ken French, NTU Professor of Finance, Sloan School of Management, MIT

"As opposed to offering us another dry, one-size-fits-all, mathematical approach to measuring or managing one risk or another, this book provides a general management approach to this important facet of managing any business in the twenty-first century, yet doesn’t shy away from sharing with the reader the underlying and necessary quantitative thinking that is required to perform the role of financial risk management. Culp easily switches between a statistical approach to risk measurement and a real-world approach to the particular exposure(s). In addition, it was refreshing to see the amount of time he spent on drawing the distinction between managing risk on Wall Street and managing the same risk within a corporation, which may have very different goals and success benchmarks."–Brent Callinicos, CPA, Treasurer, Microsoft Corporation

"The Risk Management Process is at the same time scholarly and comprehensive, yet readable, realistic, and insightful. Unquestionably, this is the right book at the right time, destined to become the standard reference work in the field."–Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University, and Chairman, The Friedberg Mercantile Group, Inc.

With intensified global competition, institutional changes and reduced communication costs the propensity of firms to reconfigure their global value chain and separate their activities across national boundaries has increased markedly. It enables firms to combine the benefits arising from specialization and increased flexibility with location advantages. Consequently, large parts of manufacturing and other more standardized activities have been offshored to emerging countries. However, recent developments are challenging this traditional separation between advanced and emerging economies as host of knowledge- and production-intensive activities, respectively. Recent research has emphasized the role of intra-organizational relationships and links among the different parts of the value chain. Innovative and productive activities are affected by strong interdependencies and complementarities, and for some companies the co-location of R&D and manufacturing is critical for development and innovation. This volume will interest scholars in International Business, Economic Geography, Operations and Supply Chain Management, International Economics, and Political Science.

The past two decades were among the most prosperous in history, with over a billion people lifted out of extreme poverty. Then 2020 hit, and, along with it, the coronavirus pandemic. The effect on economies will be extreme. What can small businesses do to survive the Covid-19 crisis? Business coach and author Douglas Kruger provides actionable answers, with a list of 50 practical ways your business can survive – and even thrive – during this time of uncertainty.

Business survival entails a simple formula. You must achieve and maintain profits over costs. There are a remarkable number of creative things you can do to stay on the right side of this equation, provided you don’t lose your head. Do these things well and you’ll be able to keep your staff employed, continue to serve your customers, grow awareness of your brand, and even come out of this difficult period positioned for growth.

Right now, owners of small businesses need every smart-cut they can find. Virus-proof Your Small Business provides no fewer than 50, including how to manage and safeguard your cash flow; get your head around the size of the challenge and begin thinking in productive ways; cut costs without cutting employment; use different channels to deliver the same offering; ensure that those who supply you, and those you serve, stay open too.

An absolutely essential read for any small business owner in this challenging time.

A surprisingly simple approach to help everyday people become everyday innovators. The pressure to generate big ideas can feel overwhelming. We know that bold innovations are critical in these disruptive and competitive times, but when it comes to breakthrough thinking, we often freeze up. Instead of shooting for a $10-billion payday or a Nobel Prize, the most prolific innovators focus on Big Little Breakthroughs-small creative acts that unlock massive rewards over time. By cultivating daily micro-innovations, individuals and organizations are better equipped to tackle tough challenges and seize transformational opportunities. How did a convicted drug dealer launch and scale a massively successful fitness company? What core mindset drove LEGO to become the largest toy company in the world? How did a Pakistani couple challenge the global athletic shoe industry? What simple habits led Lady Gaga, Banksy, and Lin-Manuel Miranda to their remarkable success? Big Little Breakthroughs isn't just for propeller-head inventors, fancy-pants CEOs, or hoodie-donning tech billionaires. Rather, it's a surpassingly simple system to help everyday people become everyday innovators.

New developments in assessing and managing risk are discussed in this volume. Addressing both practitioners in the banking sector and research institutions, the book provides a manifold view on the most-discussed topics in finance. Among the subjects treated are important issues such as: risk measures and allocation of risks, factor modeling, risk premia in the hedge funds industry and credit risk management. The volume provides an overview of recent developments as well as future trends in the area of risk assessment.

In this groundbreaking working, Jack L. King, Ph.D. provides the basis for an in-depth understanding of operational risk by focusing on its measurement and modelling. Using both theoretical and practical material, he lays out a foundation theory that can be applied and refined for application in the financial sector and beyond.
Operational Risk: Measurement and Modelling is a comprehensive source for understanding the effects of risk inherent in all operations. This book:

• Provides a set of assumptions, definitions, and methodology for quantifying operational risk
• Uses comprehensive step-by-step descriptions based on real-world examples to demonstrate the application and reinforce key ideas..
• Introduces Delta-EVTTM^TM, a new technique that allows firms to deal with losses resulting from routine errors, control breakdowns, and rare events.
• Relies on causality as the key for identifying operational risk that can be controlled and provides a basis for management action.
• Explains clearly the relation between the risk assessment, process engineering, and statistical loss models.
• Includes and explains in detail the formulas and procedures for calculating many common risk measures and building causal models using Bayesian networks.

Instant knowledge for ambitious and information-hungry business people everywhere!

Risk is as inescapable as it is ubiquitous. But how far do we really understand what risk is, and how to turn its careful management to our advantage? In business and in life we tend to make broadbrush assumptions based on common sense and intuition alone rather than make any attempt to actively manage our futures in a consistent way. Risk management has evolved to become a primary ingredient for success in every organization that is bombarded by the need to make critical decisions, often with little or no solid facts available and little insight into the likely outcome. Managing risk is not just about avoiding trouble. It can also bring significant rewards.

"Smart Risk" starts from basics. It assumes no prior knowledge and gives a step-by-step approach, along with plenty of practical application and techniques, tools and models for managing risk. You will be given everything you need to become the risk master in your organization. This includes:

• understanding what risk management is and why it matters
• recognising the complete risk landscape by understanding the categories of risk
• knowing your risk appetite; the risks you are willing to take and those you aren't
• developing a risk culture by formalising the risk management process
• learning from success and failure
• understanding that risk management is closely linked to innovation, vital for the long-term survival of the organisation

Gain a strong understanding of the role of management science in the decision-making process while mastering the latest advantages of Microsoft (R) Office Excel (R) 365 with Camm/Cochran/Fry/Ohlmann/Anderson/Sweeney/Williams' AN INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE: QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO DECISION MAKING, 16E. This market-leading edition uses a proven problem-scenario approach in a new full-color design as the authors introduce each quantitative technique within an application setting. You learn to apply the management science model to generate solutions and make recommendations for management. Updates clarify concept explanations while new vignettes and problems demonstrate concepts at work. All data sets, applications and screen visuals reflect the details of Excel (R) 365 to prepare you to work with the latest spreadsheet tools. In addition, WebAssign courseware demonstrates techniques with instant feedback, problem walk-throughs and step-by-step tutorials.

Managing Knowledge is an extensive and eminently readable overview of the most important ideas, tools and current applications of knowledge management. The authors rely on an innovative 'building block' approach and provide a detailed description of the most important knowledge processes in organizations.

"We are experiencing a paradigm shift from an industrial age to a service/knowledge age. We are all looking for new answers that will give meaning and purpose to our efforts, and make sense of knowledge processes. This book is an excellent tool: it is easy to read and contains practical examples which help us to deal with the issues. I enjoyed reading it." Heinz Fischer, Vice-President (Personnel), Deutsche Bank

"Knowledge of customer needs, markets, patents, products and processes is a key strategic resource in today's business world. The use of this resource, particularly in larger companies, is becoming a matter of survival in highly competitive and innovation-driven markets. The practical approach to knowledge management offered by Gilbert Probst, Steffen Raub and Kai Romhardt should prove an extremely useful tool." Heinrich v. Pierer, President and CEO, Siemens AG

"In this book Professor Pobst and his colleagues show in a great way how to systematize and work on increasing the efficiency of strategic knowledge management." Leif Edvinsson, Director, Intellectual Capital, Skandia

"Knowledge will dominate our entire 21st century social environment. Organizations will rapidly divide into those that know and those that don't. Leaders of tomorrow must make better use than they have done in the past of what knowledge their employees hold. This book will show you how." Bob Bishop, Chairman, Silicon Graphics World Trade Corporation

For years, organizations have struggled to make sense out their data. IT projects designed to provide employees with dashboards, KPIs, and business-intelligence tools often take a year or more to reach the finish line...if they get there at all. This has always been a problem. Today, though, it's downright unacceptable. The world changes faster than ever. Speed has never been more important. By adhering to antiquated methods, firms lose the ability to see nascent trends and act upon them until it's too late. But what if the process of turning raw data into meaningful insights didn't have to be so painful, time-consuming, and frustrating? What if there were a better way to do analytics? Fortunately, you're in luck...Analytics: The Agile Way is the eighth book from award-winning author and Arizona State University professor Phil Simon. Analytics: The Agile Waydemonstrates how progressive organizations such as Google, Nextdoor, and others approach analytics in a fundamentally different way. They are applying the same Agile techniques that software developers have employed for years. They have replaced large batches in favor of smaller ones...and their results will astonish you. Through a series of case studies and examples, Analytics: The Agile Way demonstrates the benefits of this new analytics mind-set: superior access to information, quicker insights, and the ability to spot trends far ahead of your competitors.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to suce areas as finance, economics, technology, and forecasting accuracy. Volume 11 is split into four sections which address Forecasting in Marketing and Sales, Forecasting in Health Care, Forecasting in Business and Economics, and Topics in Forecasting. A number of topics are examined including brand experience, hospital bed management, population growth and online information sharing.

The fun and simple problem-solving guide that took Japan by storm
Ken Watanabe originally wrote "Problem Solving 101" for Japanese schoolchildren. His goal was to help shift the focus in Japanese education from memorization to critical thinking, by adapting some of the techniques he had learned as an elite McKinsey consultant.
He was amazed to discover that adults were hungry for his fun and easy guide to problem solving and decision making. The book became a surprise Japanese bestseller, with more than 370,000 in print after six months. Now American businesspeople can also use it to master some powerful skills.
Watanabe uses sample scenarios to illustrate his techniques, which include logic trees and matrixes. A rock band figures out how to drive up concert attendance. An aspiring animator budgets for a new computer purchase. Students decide which high school they will attend.
Illustrated with diagrams and quirky drawings, the book is simple enough for a middleschooler to understand but sophisticated enough for business leaders to apply to their most challenging problems.

****The Power of Purpose has been officially shortlisted in the 'Thought Leader' category for The Business Book Awards 2018, as announced on 17th January 2018.****

In a world where volatility is the new norm and change is a constant, the individuals and organisations that are flourishing are those with a clear sense of purpose based on authentic ethical values.

Purpose is the secret ingredient - with purpose you have the key to exceptional performance, greater wellbeing and clarity in a VUCA world. But how do you find such purpose and ensure it propels your business forward?

The Power of Purpose shares a simple 6-step framework you too can identify, clarify and shape your business purpose. You’ll gain a competitive advantage and boost your bottom line, but the benefits are not just commercial – you’ll also inspire a new generation of employees, foster innovation, simplify decisions and build customer and brand loyalty.

Based on qualitative interviews with well-established and emerging leaders on how they bring ethical purpose in business to life, as well as sharing the results from a questionnaire with purpose-led businesses you’ll find a step-by-step approach for applying purpose to simplify complexity, harness a purpose-powered workforce and create customer loyalty.

How can purpose provide clarity? How can it accelerate success? How can it build a long term sustainable business?

The Power of Purpose is your secret ingredient.

This graduate-level textbook covers modelling, programming and analysis of stochastic computer simulation experiments, including the mathematical and statistical foundations of simulation and why it works. The book is rigorous and complete, but concise and accessible, providing all necessary background material. Object-oriented programming of simulations is illustrated in Python, while the majority of the book is programming language independent. In addition to covering the foundations of simulation and simulation programming for applications, the text prepares readers to use simulation in their research. A solutions manual for end-of-chapter exercises is available for instructors.

The essence of any root cause analysis in our modern quality thinking is to go beyond the actual problem. This means not only do we have to fix the problem at hand but we also have to identify why the failure occurred and what was the opportunity to apply the appropriate knowledge to avoid the problem in the future. Essential Statistical Concepts for the Quality Professional offers a new non-technical statistical approach to quality for effective improvement and productivity by focusing on very specific and fundamental methodologies and tools for the future. Written by an expert with more than 30 years of experience in management, quality training, and consulting, the book examines the fundamentals of statistical understanding, and by doing so demonstrates the importance of using statistics in the decision making process. The author points out pitfalls to keep in mind when undertaking an experiment for improvement and explains how to use statistics in improvement endeavors. He discusses data interpretation, common tests and confidence intervals, and how to plan experiments for improvement. The book expands the notion of experimentation by dealing with mathematical models such as regression to optimize the improvement and understand the relationship between several factors. It emphasizes the need for sampling and introduces specific techniques to make sure accuracy and precision of the data is appropriate and applicable for the study at hand. The author's approach is somewhat new and unique; however, he details tools and methodologies that can be used to evaluate the system for prevention. These tools and methodologies focus on structured, repeatable processes that can be instrumental in finding real, fixable causes of the human errors and equipment failures that lead to quality issues.

This book offers a fast track route to mastering business decision making. It covers the key areas of decision making, from decision support systems and global templates to contemplation and implementation. It contains examples and lessons from some of the world's most successful businesses, including Coca Cola and Pepsi Cola, The Valio Group, Best Buy, and Scandic Hotels, and ideas from the smartest thinkers, including Mary Altomare, Mike Aristedes, David L. Cooperrider, Andre L. Delbecq, J. D. Eveland, Brian Hsieh, Don Mankin, Paul Nutt, Daniel Power, and Morris Raker. It also includes a glossary of key concepts and a comprehensive resources guide.

Even the best-run companies can get blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures. In "Predictable Surprises", Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins show you how to minimize your risk by understanding and lowering the psychological, organizational, and political barriers preventing you from foreseeing calamity. They then describe the powerful tools - including incentives and formal coalitions - that business leaders can use to ferret out and fend off threats invisible to insiders. Failure see what's coming exposes your company to predictable surprises. Given the stakes involved, this book should count among every business leader's most trusted resources.

Do you want to have great ideas? Do you want to break out of the rut of conventional thinking? Would you like to be a genius? Would presenting brilliant ideas help in your job, career and social life? How to be a Brilliant Thinker will help you to achieve all these ideals, by helping you to think in powerful new ways. It shows you how to harness techniques in lateral thinking, analytical thinking, problem analysis, idea generation and other areas so that you become much more creative. You will be able to conceive, evaluate and implement great ideas as well as improve your memory, sell your ideas and win arguments. It is packed with practical methods that you can put to immediate use, backed up by exercises, puzzles, quizzes, graphics and illustrations.