The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.

Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic.

Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge.

Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author's own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix.

Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including:

- Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives

- Risk analysis and assessment

- Communicating and justifying controversial decisions

- Personal life choices and political judgments

- Adapting decision aid to organizations

The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education.

An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email [email protected]) or directly from [email protected].

"Whether by design, accident or merely synchronicity, Checkland appears to have developed a habit of writing seminal publications near the start of each decade which establish the basis and framework for systems methodology research for that decade." Hamish Rennie, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1992

Thirty years ago Peter Checkland set out to test whether the Systems Engineering (SE) approach, highly successful in technical problems, could be used by managers coping with the unfolding complexities of organizational life. The straightforward transfer of SE to the broader situations of management was not possible, but by insisting on a combination of systems thinking strongly linked to real-world practice Checkland and his collaborators developed an alternative approach - Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) - which enables managers of all kinds and at any level to deal with the subtleties and confusions of the situations they face. This work established the now accepted distinction between ‘hard’ systems thinking, in which parts of the world are taken to be ‘systems’ which can be ‘engineered’, and ‘soft’ systems thinking in which the focus is on making sure the process of inquiry into real-world complexity is itself a system for learning. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981) and Soft Systems Methodology in Action (1990) together with an earlier paper Towards a Systems-based Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving (1972) have long been recognized as classics in the field. Now Peter Checkland has looked back over the three decades of SSM development, brought the account of it up to date, and reflected on the whole evolutionary process which has produced a mature SSM. SSM: A 30-Year Retrospective, here included with Systems Thinking, Systems Practice closes a chapter on what is undoubtedly the most significant single research programme on the use of systems ideas in problem solving. Now retired from full-time university work, Peter Checkland continues his research as a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellow.

Failure is always an option... For more than 50 years, NASA's Mission Control has been known for two things: perfect decision making in extreme situations and producing generations of steely-eyed missile men and women who continue that tradition. A key to that legacy of brilliant performance is a particular brand of leadership, especially at the working level in Mission Control. Take the ultimate insiders look at the leadership values and culture that created the best team on this planet. Paul Sean Hill was responsible for NASA's Mission Operations support for manned space flight from 2007-2011. In this candid book he shows that the secret to Mission Control's success has never been rocket science and that the real practice of perfect decision making can be applied to any organisation or team. By demonstrating how his Mission Control team nurtured a culture which has delivered impossible wins for decades, Hill provides a guide for all leaders to boost their company's performance at all levels. Whether failure means cost and schedule overruns, quality reduction, loss of market share, bankruptcy - or putting someone's life a risk, how we lead can determine whether even small mistakes are dealt with or are left to snowball out of control and destroy an enterprise. Discover how to take leadership from the Mission Control Room to your boardroom and beyond, and achieve this out-of-this-world leadership environment in your team.

Doug Hall shares data-proven methods that can make sales, marketing, and business development measurably more effective.

A tried and tested formula for business planning What is the one thing you need to know in business? What s the single most important aspect of business to master in order to succeed and grow? It has to be planning. Whether you re sitting down to plan a whole brand strategy or tasked with planning a single product and taking it to market, nailing the planning and decision making will ensure you have full buy-in from all stakeholders, a high level of market knowledge, know exactly what value your product or service brings and a thorough understanding of how the financials will work. In short, you ll have an idea that succeeds. Ross Lovelock and his company SCQuARE have spent the last 20 years developing a formula for such planning. Ross has shared this formula with some of the world s leading companies now he s going to share it with you. The One Thing You Need to Know is a complete business planning toolkit. * A simple, implementable explanation of how to bring a product plan or a brand strategy together * Will teach you the critical business skill of creating and selling plans * Learn how to think through a complex business problem, create the right solution and then sell it through the corporate maze * Explains exactly how to distil vast amounts of information into a compelling business story that will warrant a YES decision from the boss

This book outlines the benefits and limitations of simulation, what is involved in setting up a simulation capability in an organization, the steps involved in developing a simulation model and how to ensure that model results are implemented. In addition, detailed example applications are provided to show where the tool is useful and what it can offer the decision maker. In Simulating Business Processes for Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive Analytics, Andrew Greasley provides an in-depth discussion of Business process simulation and how it can enable business analytics How business process simulation can provide speed, cost, dependability, quality, and flexibility metrics Industrial case studies including improving service delivery while ensuring an efficient use of staff in public sector organizations such as the police service, testing the capacity of planned production facilities in manufacturing, and ensuring on-time delivery in logistics systems State-of-the-art developments in business process simulation regarding the generation of simulation analytics using process mining and modeling people's behavior Managers and decision makers will learn how simulation provides a faster, cheaper and less risky way of observing the future performance of a real-world system. The book will also benefit personnel already involved in simulation development by providing a business perspective on managing the process of simulation, ensuring simulation results are implemented, and that performance is improved.

"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.

Your brewery is much more than just a small business-it's the fulfillment of your dream to share a love for quality craft beer and beverages. Build success from start-up to expansion with a solid foundation of finance principles geared specifically toward small beverage producers. Learn how to build and interpret financial reports and create basic pro-forma financial statements for launching a brewery, purchasing additional equipment, or determining a new location. Explore the various business models available to you as a craft brewery. Discover pricing models that maximize your profits. Learn how to build a budget and how to use it to hold staff accountable. This book is written to teach complex topics in simple terms. Written in an accessible style, it will help brewery owners and their staff understand the importance of a strong financial foundation. The insights and results-oriented content will help you run a more successful brewery.

Action Learning - Activity Based Costing - Adhocracy - Agility - Balanced Scorecard - Benchmarking - Boston Matrix - Broadbanding - Channel Management - Core Competencies - Core Values - Crisis Management - Customer Relationship Management - Decision Theory - Discounted Cash Flow - Downsizing - E-commerce - Emotional Intelligence - Employability Empowerment - Four Ps of Marketing - Game Theory - Intellectual Capital Interim Management - Just-in-Time - Kaizen - Kepener-Tregoe - Knowledge Management - Leadership Theory - Lean Production - Learning Organization - Managerial Grid - Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs - Matrix Model Outsourcing - Porter's Five Forces - Psychological Contract Re-engineering - Relationship Marketing - Ringi - Scenario Planning - Scientific Management - Seven S Framework - Shamrock Organization - Shareholder Value - Strategic Inflection Points - Strategic Management Succession Planning - Supply Chain Management - Theories X Y (& Z) Thought Leadership - 60 Degree Feedback - TQM - Transnational Corporation - Value Innovation - Virtual Organization

The future of work is already here. Customers are adopting disruptive technologies faster than your company can adapt. When your customers are delighted, they can amplify your message in ways that were never before possible. But when your company's performance runs short of what you've promised, customers can seize control of your brand message, spreading their disappointment and frustration faster than you can keep up. To keep pace with today's connected customers, your company must become a connected company. That means deeply engaging with workers, partners, and customers, changing how work is done, how you measure success, and how performance is rewarded. It requires a new way of thinking about your company: less like a machine to be controlled, and more like a complex, dynamic system that can learn and adapt over time. Connected companies have the advantage, because they learn and move faster than their competitors. While others work in isolation, they link into rich networks of possibility and expand their influence. Connected companies around the world are aggressively acquiring customers and disrupting the competition. In The Connected Company, we examine what they're doing, how they're doing it, and why it works. And we show you how your company can use the same principles to adapt - and thrive - in today's ever-changing global marketplace.

Make Better Decisions, Leverage New Opportunities, and Automate Decisioning at Scale Prescriptive analytics is more directly linked to successful decision-making than any other form of business analytics. It can help you systematically sort through your choices to optimize decisions, respond to new opportunities and risks with precision, and continually reflect new information into your decisioning process. In Prescriptive Analytics, analytics expert Dr. Dursun Delen illuminates the field's state-of-the-art methods, offering holistic insight for both professionals and students. Delen's end-to-end, all-inclusive approach covers optimization, simulation, multi-criteria decision-making methods, inference- and heuristic-based decisioning, and more. Balancing theory and practice, he presents intuitive conceptual illustrations, realistic example problems, and real-world case studies-all designed to deliver knowledge you can use. Discover where prescriptive analytics fits and how it improves decision-making Identify optimal solutions for achieving an objective within real-world constraints Analyze complex systems via Monte-Carlo, discrete, and continuous simulations Apply powerful multi-criteria decision-making and mature expert systems and case-based reasoning Preview emerging techniques based on deep learning and cognitive computing

'A compelling guide for leaders grappling with the pandemic' Financial Times 'A remarkable book telling business leaders what to do when disaster strikes' The Times AN INSPIRING STORY OF RESILIENT LEADERSHIP IN THE TOUGHEST OF TIMES Louai Al Roumani was head of finance and planning at one of the largest banks in Syria, when the war broke out in 2011. In Lessons from a Warzone, Al Roumani shares his very personal account of coping with the day-to-day realities of leading an organization in dangerous and hostile conditions. His story shows how inspiration can come from the unlikeliest of places - from the timeless wisdom of merchants in ancient souks to the changing patterns of military checkpoints. During that time, not only did the bank remain robust when others faltered - it thrived and became the undisputed leading bank as people's trust in its capability to safeguard their life-long savings strengthened. In this book, Al Roumani distils the knowledge and skills he and his colleagues developed while steering the bank through four impossible years into ten lessons applicable to any leader facing a crisis today. His valuable, and often counterintuitive, advice - ranging from resisting over-planning to hacking your own IT department to cutting costs (but not morale) - will help anyone understand how to be resilient even in the most challenging of times.

This title was first published in 2000: The International Library of Management is a comprehensive core reference series comprised of the most significant and influential articles by the leading authorities in the management studies field. Volumes in the series include a full-length introduction from the editor, an internationally recognized expert, which provides an authoritative guide to the selection of essays chosen and to the wider field itself. The collections of essays is both international and interdisciplinary in scope and provides an entry point for investigating the myriad of study within the discipline.

Better Governance Across the Board is a practical guide for achieving good corporate governance of organizations regardless of whether they are for profit, listed, state-owned, family owned, or widely held. It delves into the questions boards must ask if they are to fulfill their fiduciary duties, taking account of regulatory issues. Part 1 defines corporate governance, explaining the four reasons why it matters and how it applies to a wide range of organizations. Part 2 explores the "Five P" framework of Purpose, Principles, Power, People, and Processes that helps boards to create sustainable value. Part 3 concludes by showing how the organization's long-term "license to operate" is achieved by boards focusing on the three most important assets of the organization: its reputation; its people, and its processes. This book explores the dilemmas that currently exist in modern approaches to corporate governance and suggests ways of overcoming them. Based on ten years of teaching more than 1,500 directors of publicly listed companies, it integrates key principles of leadership, ethics, branding, and governance into a unique five-factor framework to help directors make good decisions in strategy, risk management, succession planning, internal controls, and stakeholder engagement.

Provides the reader with a perspective on the efficient operation of complicated systems.
* Spreadsheets are used to employ and teach techniques.
* Includes the facets of probability that relate to decision making.

How does your team react to change? Do they dig in with their heels to resist it or do they welcome it with open arms? In this 1-hour read, Mac Anderson and Tom Feltenstein take you through each step of change - from the realization that change is a good thing, to implementing that change in every department and across all channels. You may not have a choice about change, but you can choose how you and your team react to it. Change Is Good...You Go First provides the motivation you and your team need to embrace change. The book includes 21 ways to inspire change and objectives to help your team achieve its goals.

Master data analysis, modeling and the effective use of spreadsheets with the popular BUSINESS ANALYTICS: DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING, 7E. The quantitative methods approach in this edition helps you maximize your success with a proven teach-by-example presentation, inviting writing style and complete integration of the latest version of Excel. The approach is also compatible with earlier versions of Excel for your convenience. This edition is more data-oriented than ever before with a new chapter on the two main Power BI tools in Excel -- Power Query and Power Pivot -- and a new section of data visualization with Tableau Public. Current problems and cases demonstrate the importance of the concepts you are learning. In addition, a useful Companion Website provides data and solutions files, SolverTable for optimization sensitivity analysis and Palisade DecisionTools Suite. MindTap online resources are also available.

Problems block and slow down your progress; here's how to overcome them-simply, efficiently and effectively. This book offers straightforward, empowering science-based solutions to problems, big and small, at work or in life. It takes a never before seen approach to problem solving, powerfully combining lessons from cognitive science, established problem-solving theory and vast practical experience. It includes a radical new approach to analysing problems: The Problem Matrix. This will transform your approach to problems, challenge your thinking and help you develop new, positive, solution-focussed mindsets for the long-term.

Onboarding is such an important part of an employee's success. It starts well before the employee decides to apply with an organization in the forms of employment branding and the candidate experience. It includes sourcing, interviewing, background checks, and extending the job offer. Next comes new hire paperwork, orientation, and training. Lastly, performance management. On some level much of onboarding touches every single component in the employee life cycle. Yet, when it comes to onboarding managers, we do nothing or very little. But we expect managers to help onboard new employees. They are an active part of the recruiting process. Managers are expected to train and develop employees. They are required to coach and mentor employees for exceptional performance. It's time for organizations to give managers the same foundation for success that we give new hire employees. Manager Onboarding will walk HR managers and business leaders through the process of creating a manager onboarding program. While onboarding has many touchpoints in a manager's career, this book is going to focus on the new hire or newly promoted phase. This book is for HR and business leaders who are looking for a roadmap to designing a manager onboarding program. The book touches on just a bit of theory and a whole lot of practical knowledge. It is filled with stories and examples about how companies' onboarding programs work-both for new employees as well as managers.

Evidence-Based Decision-Making: How to Leverage Available Data and Avoid Cognitive Biases examines how a wide range of factual evidence, primarily derived from a variety of data available to organizations, can be used to improve the quality of business decision-making, by helping decision makers circumvent the various cognitive biases that adversely impact how we all think. The book is built on the following premise: During the past decade, the new 'data world' emerged, in which the rush to develop competencies around business analytics and data science can be characterized as nothing less than the new commercial arms race. The ever-expanding volume and variety of data are well known, as are the great advances in data processing/analytics, data visualization, and related information production-focused capabilities. Yet, comparatively little effort has been devoted to how the informational products of business analytics and data science are 'consumed' or used in the organizational decision-making processes, as the available evidence shows that only some of that information is used to drive some business decisions some of the time. Evidence-Based Decision-Making details an explicit process describing how the universe of available and applicable evidence, which includes organizational and other data, industry benchmarks, scientific studies, and professional experience, can be assessed, amalgamated, and funneled into an objective driver of key business decisions. Introducing key concepts in relation to data and evidence, and the history of evidence-based management, this new and extremely topical book will be essential reading for researchers and students of data analytics as well as those working in the private and public sectors, and in the voluntary sector.

Global Information Technology Outsourcing In Search of Business Advantage Mary C. Lacity & Leslie P. Willcocks ‘Lacity, and Willcocks have shown us again why they are the world’s leading IT outsourcing gurus… the most comprehensive work on IT outsourcing to date.’ Sara Cullen, National Partner, Australia Business Process Management, Deloitte Touche, Tohmatsu ‘a valuable collection… readers will find here advice that premier consultants would deliver for a very large multiple of the price of this book.’ Paul A. Strassmann, former CIO of General Foods, Kraft, Xerox and the US Department of Defense ‘(a). "must read" for anyone in search of a clear understanding of what information technology outsourcing is all about… absolutely no one should jump into outsourcing prior to taking advantage of the outstanding case studies outlined in this book.’ Emmett Paige, President, OAO Corporation ‘an excellent guide to successful outsourcing, the best I have read on the topic. It should be mandatory reading for any senior executive.’ Gail Burke, Executive Director & CIO, Macquarie Bank, Australia ‘crisp and concise. The studies selected for detailed presentation are excellent and the analysis… rings with credibility.’ Rob Westcott, Vice President and CIO, General Motors Acceptance Corporation International Operations, UK ‘Lacity and Willcocks have… unrivalled access to outsourcing deals across the globe… their new book… is a powerful synthesis of their learning (and) their chapter on risk management is a groundbreaking contribution. A vitally important business guide.’ Richard Sykes, Chairman Morgan Chambers plc. - Europe’s largest independent consultancy in IT services & business process sourcing ‘Lacity and Willcocks tell it like it is and pull no punches… A must read for any organization contemplating outsourcing or trying to fix a broken outsourcing relationship… Planning for outsourcing, negotiating the deal, making the relationship work — it’s all here.’ Bob Young, Executive Director, South Australian Government Account, EDS (Electronic Data Systems) ‘For those of us with a deep knowledge and experience of outsourcing, this book is required reading. For those who are just starting out on the journey, it is essential reading.’ Robert White, CEO, Lucidus Management Technologies

In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book's simple and straightforward style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation's Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.