'Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed -------- What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected? In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it's something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn't even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed. In Risk: A User's Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He lays out ten dimensions of control which we can adjust at any given time, no matter the context: narrative, bias, action, timing, adaptability, communication, technology, diversity, structure and leadership. Drawing on compelling examples ranging from military history to the business world, and offering infinitely practical exercises to improve preparedness, McChrystal illustrates how these ten factors are almost always in effect - and how, by considering them constantly, individuals and organizations can exert mastery over every conceivable sort of risk that they might face. We may not be able to see into the future, but Risk gives us a framework for improving our resistance and building a strong defense against what we know -- and what we don't. -------- 'A brilliant user's guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right.' - Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking In Bets and How To Decide 'Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, McChrystal's clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible.' - James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy 'An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between.' - Keith Krach, former Undersecretary of State and CEO of DocuSign

Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

In a time when the world is facing significant challenges, leaders who work for justice and equity for all people are necessary. Transformative Leadership in Action: Allyship, Advocacy, and Activism challenges the reader to do the essential self-work required of a 21st century leader, and provides the road map to developing the skills necessary to take on increasing public leadership roles to support causes related to justice and equity. Shining a light on unexplored, yet crucial, components of the discussion around the apex of leadership and social justice, Bruce and McKee first investigate the tie between social justice work and leadership competencies grounded in theory. Second, they put forward a pedagogical guide in teaching at this apex-engaging both the instructor and student(s) in unique learning journeys. Offering insight for educators, current leaders, and future leaders, this book is a crucial resource - providing go-to support for engaging in allyship, advocacy, and activism for justice and equity. If you want your learners to be leaders and not just think about leadership, this is the book you need.

A systematic review of the most current decision models and techniques for disease prevention and treatment Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment offers a comprehensive resource of the most current decision models and techniques for disease prevention and treatment. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this important resource presents information on the optimization of chronic disease prevention, infectious disease control and prevention, and disease treatment and treatment technology. Designed to be accessible, in each chapter the text presents one decision problem with the related methodology to showcase the vast applicability of operations research tools and techniques in advancing medical decision making. This vital resource features the most recent and effective approaches to the quickly growing field of healthcare decision analytics, which involves cost-effectiveness analysis, stochastic modeling, and computer simulation. Throughout the book, the contributors discuss clinical applications of modeling and optimization techniques to assist medical decision making within complex environments. Accessible and authoritative, Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment: Presents summaries of the state-of-the-art research that has successfully utilized both decision analytics and optimization tools within healthcare operations research Highlights the optimization of chronic disease prevention, infectious disease control and prevention, and disease treatment and treatment technology Includes contributions by well-known experts from operations researchers to clinical researchers, and from data scientists to public health administrators Offers clarification on common misunderstandings and misnomers while shedding light on new approaches in this growing area Designed for use by academics, practitioners, and researchers, Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment offers a comprehensive resource for accessing the power of decision analytics and optimization tools within healthcare operations research.

A company's reputation is one of its most valuable assets, and reputational risk is high on the agenda at board level and amongst regulators. Rethinking Reputational Risk explains the hidden factors which can both cause crises and tip an otherwise survivable crisis into a reputational disaster. Reputations are lost when the perception of an organization is damaged by its behaviour not meeting stakeholder expectations. Rethinking Reputational Risk lays bare the actions, inactions and local 'states of normality' that can lead to perception-changing consequences and gives readers the insight to recognize and respond to the risks to their reputations. Using case studies, such as BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Volkswagen's emissions rigging scandal, Tesco, AIG, EADS Airbus A380, and Mid-Staffordshire NHS Hospital Trust, and analysis of their failures, this hard-hitting guide also applies lessons drawn from behavioural economics to the behavioural risks that underlie reputation risk. An essential read for risk professionals, business leaders and board members who need to understand and deal with business-critical threats to their reputation, this book presents a new framework that will be invaluable for all involved in safeguarding an organization's reputation.

From profiles and interviews with the world's leading venture capitalists and high-profile coaches of business founders, A Dozen Lessons distills a set of bedrock methods for approaching business questions and creating value. The veteran business writer Tren Griffin takes the reader through the investment philosophies of VC luminaries such as Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital, Marc Andreesen and Ben Horowitz of Andreesen Horowitz, and Jenny Lee of GGV Capital to draw out a set of guiding principles that successful businesses follow. With insight and verve, Griffin argues that venture capital is, at a fundamental level, a service business that depends hugely on "human factors." Griffin suggests that, among a number of common features, these investors succeeded because of their sense of hustle, keen judgment, hard work, and good luck. But most of all, they share a deep love of building businesses that goes beyond financial considerations. Griffin reminds us that success is a multidimensional phenomenon requiring talented people, customer traction, productive partnerships, and brand value. These features amplify one another, with incremental success attracting more attention, talent, and investment.

It is not easy to summarize -even in a volume -the results of a scientific study con ducted by circa 30 researchers, in four different research institutions, though cooperating between them and jointly with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, but working part-time, sponsored not only by IIASA's national currency funds, but also by several other research grants in Poland. The aims of this cooperative study were de fined broadly by its title Theory, Software and Testing Examples for Decision Support Systems. The focusing theme was the methodology of decision analysis and support related to the principle of reference point optimization (developed by the editors of this volume and called also variously: aspiration-led decision support, quasi-satisfying framework of rationality, DIDAS methodology etc. ). This focusing theme motivated extensive theoretical research - from basic methodological issues of decision analysis, through various results in mathematical programming (in the fields of large scale and stochastic optimization, nondifferentiable optimization, cooperative game theory) mo tivated and needed because of this theme, through methodological issues related to software development to issues resulting from testing and applications. We could not include in this volume all papers -theoretical, methodological, appiied, software manu als and documentation -written during this cooperative study."

People are happiest and most productive if they can choose what they work on and who they work with. Self-selecting teams give people that choice. Build well-designed and efficient teams to get the most out of your organization, with step-by-step instructions on how to set up teams quickly and efficiently. You'll create a process that works for you, whether you need to form teams from scratch, improve the design of existing teams, or are on the verge of a big team re-shuffle. Discover how New Zealand's biggest e-commerce company completely restructured their business through Self-Selection. In the process, find out how to create high-performing groups by letting people self-organize into small, cross-functional teams. Step-by-step guides, easy-to-follow diagrams, practical examples, checklists, and tools will enable you to run a Self-Selection process within your organization.If you're a manager who wants to structure your organization into small teams, you'll discover why Self-Selection is the fastest and safest way to do so. You'll prepare for and organize a Self-Selection event and make sure your Self-Selection participants and fellow managers are on board and ready.If you're a team member, you'll discover what it feels like to be part of a Self-Selection process and what the consequences are for your daily work. You'll learn how to influence your colleagues and bosses to be open to the idea of Self-Selection. You'll provide your manager with a plan for how to facilitate a Self-Selection event, and with evidence that the system works.If you're feeling the pain and chaos of adding new people to your organization, or just want to ensure that your teams have the right people with the right skills, Self-Selection will help you create the effective teams you need.

Bernard ROY Professor, University of Paris-Dauphine Director of LAMSADE 11 is not unusual for a dozen or so loosely related working papers to be published in book form as the natural outgrowth of a scientific gathering. Although many a volu- me of collected papers has come into point in this way, the homogeneity of the arti- cles included will often be more apparent than real. As the reader will quickly ob- serve, such is not the case with the present volume. As one can judge from its ti- tle, 1t is in fact an outcome of an ed~torial project by J. Kacprzyk and M. Roubens. T~ey asked contributing authors to submit recent works which would examine. within a non-traditional theoretical framework, preference analysis and preference modeliing 1n a fuzzy context oriented towards decision aid. The articles by J.P. Ooignon, B. Monjardet, T. Tanino and Ph. Vincke empnasize the analysis of oreference structures, mainly in the presence of incomparability. In- transitivlty, thresholds and, more generally, inaccurate determination. Considera- ble attention is devoted to the analysis of efficient and non-dominated (in Pareto's sense of the term) decisions in the four papers presented by S. Ovchinnikov and M.

The completion of this thesis gives me feelings of satisfaction and thankfulness. Satisfaction because its results appear to be worthwile and relevant, and thankfulness towards so many persons who contributed to the progress of the work. The project "Analysis of multilevel decisions" was granted by the common research pool of Tilburg University and Eindhoven University of Techno- logy (Samenwerkingsorgaan Brabantse Universiteiten). During the 4-year lead time, the Department of Econometrics of Tilburg University provided not only a single room but also a pleasant and inspiring environment, for which I am very grateful. The research itself, particularly the inevitable scientific struggles, was perfectly coached by my promotors, Prof. Dr. P.A. Verheyen and Prof. Dr. J.F. Benders. I cannot give even the slightest description of the unique way in which they managed to do this. In all criticism they succeeded to maintain a positive, and thus stimulating, working atmosphere. The work also benefited from the suggestions gi ven by Prof. Dr. Th.M.A. Bemelmans, Prof. Dr. J.P.C. Kleijnen, Prof. Dr. P.H.M. Ruys and Prof. Dr. A. Schrijver. Furthermore I am indebted to Dr. Adam Wofniak (Warsaw University of Technology), who made me participate in his multi- level experience and critically commented on an earlier draft of the thesis.

From columnist and bestselling author Suzy Welch comes a powerful, proven strategy for clarifying life choices.
We all want to lead a life of our own choosing. But in today's accelerated world of competing priorities, confounding options, and information overload, we can find ourselves steered by impulse, stress, or expedience. Are our decisions the right ones? Or are we being governed, time and again, and against our best intentions, by the demands of the moment? With "10-10-10, "Welch proposes a transformative solution to this pressure, helping us tease apart our deepest goals and values, candidly face our fears and dreams, and rid ourselves of frustration and regret. "10-10-10 "has shown its effectiveness in decisions large and small, routine and radical, getting us out of neutral at home, in love, and at work. Across the board, this immensely useful and revelatory idea provides us with the tools to regain control of our choices--and ultimately reclaim our lives.

This monograph is intended for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course of engineering and management science. as well as for persons in business. industry. military or in any field. who want an introductory and a capsule look into the methods of group decision making under multiple criteria. This is a sequel to our previous works entitled "Multiple Objective Decision Making--Methods and Applications (No. 164 of the Lecture Notes). and "Multiple Attribute Decision Making--Methods and Applications (No. 186 of the Lecture Notes). Moving from a single decision maker (the consideration of Lecture Notes 164 and 186) to a multiple decision maker setting introduces a great deal of complexity into the analysis. The problem is no longer the selection of the most preferred alternative among the nondominated solutions according to one individual's (single decision maker's) preference structure. The analysis is extended to account for the conflicts among different interest groups who have different objectives. goals. and so forth. Group decision making under multiple criteria includes such diverse and interconnected fields as preference analysis. utility theory. social choice theory. committee decision theory. theory of voting. game theory. expert evaluation analysis. aggregation of qualitative factors. economic equilibrium theory. etc; these are simplified and systematically classified for beginners. This work is to provide readers with a capsule look into the existing methods. their characteristics. and applicability in the complexity of group decision making.

The Challenge
Built to Last, the defining management study of the nineties, showed how great companies triumph over time and how long-term sustained performance can be engineered into the DNA of an enterprise from the very beginning.

But what about the company that is not born with great DNA? How can good companies, mediocre companies, even bad companies achieve enduring greatness?

The Study
For years, this question preyed on the mind of Jim Collins. Are there companies that defy gravity and convert long-term mediocrity or worse into long-term superiority? And if so, what are the universal distinguishing characteristics that cause a company to go from good to great?

The Standards
Using tough benchmarks, Collins and his research team identified a set of elite companies that made the leap to great results and sustained those results for at least fifteen years. How great? After the leap, the good-to-great companies generated cumulative stock returns that beat the general stock market by an average of seven times in fifteen years, better than twice the results delivered by a composite index of the world's greatest companies, including Coca-Cola, Intel, General Electric, and Merck.

The Comparisons
The research team contrasted the good-to-great companies with a carefully selected set of comparison companies that failed to make the leap from good to great. What was different? Why did one set of companies become truly great performers while the other set remained only good?

Over five years, the team analyzed the histories of all twenty-eight companies in the study. After sifting through mountains of data and thousands of pages of interviews, Collins and his crew discovered the key determinants of greatness'why some companies make the leap and others don't.

The Findings
The findings of the Good to Great study will surprise many readers and shed light on virtually every area of management strategy and practice. The findings include:

• Level 5 Leaders: The research team was shocked to discover the type of leadership required to achieve greatness.
• The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity within the Three Circles): To go from good to great requires transcending the curse of competence.
• A Culture of Discipline: When you combine a culture of discipline with an ethic of entrepreneurship, you get the magical alchemy of great results. Technology Accelerators: Good-to-great companies think differently about the role of technology.
• The Flywheel and the Doom Loop: Those who launch radical change programs and wrenching restructurings will almost certainly fail to make the leap.

“Some of the key concepts discerned in the study,” comments Jim Collins, "fly in the face of our modern business culture and will, quite frankly, upset some people.”

Perhaps, but who can afford to ignore these findings?

Stimulating and developing the creative potential of all members of an organisation is widely seen as contributing to performance and results. This prestigious textbook provides a complete overview of the creative problem-solving process and its relevance to modern managers in the private and public sectors. It introduces ideas, skills and models to help students understand how creative thinking can aid problem solving, and how different techniques may help people who have different thinking and learning styles. This updated fifth edition includes fresh case studies, exercises and suggested reading, alongside extensive diagrams and thought-provoking questions. A new chapter considers the use of heuristics in decision-making situations faced by managers, and examines how aspects of creative problem solving can relate to such situations. It also introduces a complex in-tray exercise, which demonstrates how the conflicting demands on an individual manager can be considered in practice. Supporting PowerPoint slides for lecturers are available for each chapter. Creative Problem Solving for Managers will continue to be an ideal resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students studying problem solving, strategic management, creativity and innovation management, as well as managers looking to develop their decision-making abilities.

Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. ) Several of these essays were written because of the impetus afforded by speaking invitations. An earlier version of Chapter 3 was presented in Berkeley in January 1983 at a Principal Investi gators' Conference sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis, Technology Assessment and Risk Assessment Group. In May 1982, an earlier version of Chapter 5 was presented at the meeting of the Society for Philos ophy and Technology, held in conjunction with the American Philosophical Association meeting, Western Division, in Columbus, Ohio. Finally, earlier versions of Chapter 6 were presented in Boston in December 1981 at the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science, as well as at the University of Delaware in January 1982 and at the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An earlier version of this same chapter was published in Philosophy of Science Association 82, volume 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. A number of people have helped to make this book better than it might have been."

Optimizing Digital Strategy explores the choices facing organizations in the rapidly changing world of technology-enabled business. From performance marketing through to personalization, on-demand retailing and AI, this book maps out commercial and customer-focused challenges and explains how leaders can get the most out of their digital strategies. Rather than rushing headlong into adopting the latest digital platforms, tools and technologies, the book challenges leaders to step back from the demands for constant investment in new technology and drive better returns from existing assets.

Presenting a sustainable model of e-commerce that is appropriate to any individual organization's needs, Optimizing Digital Strategy addresses the repetitive dilemma between even more investment in technology and the need to improve margins and grow revenue. Illustrated by the authors' own digital work for global brands such as The Economist, Sky, O2, Regus, the Financial Times, Lidl and L.K.Bennett, this book shows how to balance the need to remain competitive, fully deliver customer expectations, and put resources behind investments that will deliver the best return.

Over the years, there has been more and more research to test the validity of personnel assessment methods, an area which is far from easy. This book compares traditional practices against new techniques, including social media analytics, wearables, mobile phone logs, and gamification. Researchers and businesses alike know the importance of making good, and avoiding bad, selection decisions, but are unsure of how to proceed effectively. This book maps out the viable options and advises on best practice. The author combines both practical applications and academic, psychological research to explain how each method works, the theory behind it, and the extent of the evidence that supports it.

Getting what you want - even if you are the boss - isn't always easy. Almost every organization, big or small, works among a network of competing interests. Whether it's governments pushing through policies, companies trying to increase profits, or even families deciding where to move house, rarely can decisions be made in isolation from competing interests both within the organization and outside it. In this accessible and straightforward account, Hans de Bruijn and Ernst ten Heuvelhof cast light on multi-stakeholder decision-making. Using plain language, they reveal the nuts and bolts of decision-making within the numerous dilemmas and tensions at work. Drawing on a diverse range of illustrative examples throughout, their perceptive analysis examines how different interests can either support or block change, and the strategies available for managing a variety of stakeholders. The second edition of Management in Networks incorporates a wider spread of international cases, a new chapter giving an overview of different network types, and a new chapter looking at digital governance and the impact of big data on networks. This insightful text is invaluable reading for students of management and organizational studies, plus practitioners - or actors - operating in a range of contexts.

A manifesto for transforming our thinking from reactionary short-termism to the long-term, widening our scope beyond today, tomorrow, even five years from now to gain perspective, become more creative, and reclaim meaning in our lives.

Every major problem we face today, from climate change to work anxiety, is the result of short-term thinking. We are constantly bombarded by updates, notifications, and “Breaking News,” that are overwhelming our central nervous systems, forcing us to react in the moment and ultimately disconnecting us from what truly matters. But there is a solution. We must embrace what Ari Wallach, futurist and founder of Longpath Labs, calls the “longpath”—a mantra and mindset he developed to help us get beyond short-term thinking, focus on the long view, and cultivate a futureconscious mindset.

Drawing on history, philosophy, theology, neuroscience, evolutionary psychology, and technology, Longpath reframes how we see our lives and the world. Wallach teaches us how to utilize the longpath mindset to strengthen our ability to look ahead, increase our capacity for cooperation, and even boost our creativity. Every decision we make today impacts the future. Wallach helps us improve our decision-making, challenging each of us to ask, “what is my longpath?”—what is my end goal and how does my choice align with my values and needs?

Whether it’s work, marriage, parenting, or simply trying to be a good human on the planet, framing decisions from a much larger scale creates a more fulfilling and sustainable life now and for future generations. By adopting the longpath mindset, we can relieve our reaction to stressful events and occurrences, cultivate future-conscious thinking, and come up with solutions to improve our lives today and tomorrow—and those of future generations.

The Fourth International MCDM Conference follows a tradition that began with an exploratory gathering at the University of South Carolina in 1973. The First International Conference was held in Jouy-en-Josas in 1975. The second and third were held in Buffalo (1977) and KOnigswinter (1979). We are grateful to the Office of Naval Research for years of advice and funding, and to Springer-Verlag for providing a widely dispersed series of proceedings volumes. In the case of the Delaware Conference we gratefully acknowledge new support from the corporate sector, coordinated by the University of Delaware's Development Office. Now that I have attended to the formal recognitions, I wish to place my recollection of the human side of the conference into the record. This is justi fiable because multiple criteria problem solving has been nurtured by a close-knit group of people whose interactions are not fully captured by the standard journal format. This was the conference in which an animated discussion between Dave, Bell and Paul Schoemaker caused Mathilde Stephenson to stand up and say, "Don't stop it; this is the best part of the conference. " Another sort of moment occurred when Lucas Pun was asked to explain a certain Chinese character in one of his transpar encies. He replied, "No alcohol allowed. " From Erick Duesing, speaking with an historical perspective, we had the insight that multiple criteria methods lan guished because "McCarthyism had made planning suspect."

An organisation's fate hinges on its CEO - right? Not according to the authors of Senior Leadership Teams. They argue that in today's world of neck-snapping change, demands on leaders in top roles are rapidly outdistancing the capabilities of any one person - no matter how talented. Result? Chief executives are turning to their enterprise's senior leaders for help. Yet many CEOs stumble when creatinga leadership team. One major challenge is that senior executives often focus more on their individual roles than on the top team's shared work. Without the CEO's careful attention to setting the team up correctly, these high-powered managers often have difficulty pulling together to move their organisation forward. Sometimes they don't even agree about what constitutes the right path forward.The authors explain how to determine whether your organisation needs a senior leadership team. Then, drawing on their study of 100+ top teams from around the world, they explain how to create a clear and compelling purpose for your team, get the right people on it, provide structure and support, and sharpen team members' competencies - and your own. Timely and practical, this book enables you to create and sustain a leadership team whose members learn from one another while collaborating to pursue your company's objectives.

Decisions in businesses and organizations are too often based on fads, fashions and the success stories of famous CEOs. At the same time, traditional models and new cutting-edge solutions often fail to deliver on what they promise. This situation leaves managers, business leaders, consultants and policymakers with a profound challenge: how can we stay away from trends and quick fixes, and instead use valid and reliable evidence to support the organization? In response to this problem, evidence-based management has evolved with the goal of improving the quality of decision-making by using critically evaluated evidence from multiple sources - organizational data, professional expertise, stakeholder values and scientific literature. This book sets out and explains the specific skills needed to gather, understand and use evidence to make better-informed organizational decisions. Evidence-Based Management is a comprehensive guide that provides current and future managers, consultants and organizational leaders with the knowledge and practical skills to improve the quality and outcome of their decision-making. Online resources include case studies, exercises, lecture slides and further reading.