Aspects of Safety Management contains the invited papers presented at the ninth annual Safety-critical Systems Symposium, held in Bristol, February 2001. For some time, it has been recognised that technical issues are only one side of the safety coin. The other, often dominant feature, is active, informed and committed management. An understanding of risk, emphasis on education and the use of language, attention to learning lessons from both research and other industry sectors, and the development of the appropriate staff competences, are all aspects of safety management. The papers contained within this volume cover a broad range of subjects, but all have the common link of safety management. They present a great deal of industrial experience, as well as some recent academic research.

This book reports on an operational management approach to improving bike-sharing systems by compensating for fluctuating demand patterns. The aim is to redistribute bikes within the system, allowing it to be "actively" balanced. The book describes a mathematical model, as well as data-driven and simulation-based approaches. Further, it shows how these elements can be combined in a decision-making support system for service providers. In closing, the book uses real-world data to evaluate the method developed and demonstrates that it can successfully anticipate changes in demand, thus supporting efficient scheduling of transport vehicles to manually relocate bikes between stations.

A company's reputation is one of its most valuable assets, and reputational risk is high on the agenda at board level and amongst regulators. Rethinking Reputational Risk explains the hidden factors which can both cause crises and tip an otherwise survivable crisis into a reputational disaster. Reputations are lost when the perception of an organization is damaged by its behaviour not meeting stakeholder expectations. Rethinking Reputational Risk lays bare the actions, inactions and local 'states of normality' that can lead to perception-changing consequences and gives readers the insight to recognize and respond to the risks to their reputations. Using case studies, such as BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Volkswagen's emissions rigging scandal, Tesco, AIG, EADS Airbus A380, and Mid-Staffordshire NHS Hospital Trust, and analysis of their failures, this hard-hitting guide also applies lessons drawn from behavioural economics to the behavioural risks that underlie reputation risk. An essential read for risk professionals, business leaders and board members who need to understand and deal with business-critical threats to their reputation, this book presents a new framework that will be invaluable for all involved in safeguarding an organization's reputation.

Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.

This long-awaited textbook provides a unified perspective of a rich and varied field. It recognises that in order to develop strategies for improving the decision-making process one needs to understand how decisions are made in practice and in what ways behaviour differs from guidelines implied by normative theories of choice. It is the interplay between descriptive, normative, and prescriptive analysis that gives this book a special flavour. Using a set of illustrative examples, Decision Sciences synthesises current research about different types of decision making, including individual, group, organisational, and societal. Special attention is given to the linkage between problem finding and problem solving. The principal message emerging from the book is that decision making entails a complex set of processes that need to be understood in order to develop sound prescriptions or policy advice.

This practical 'how-to'book describes all the key operations of ARIS Toolset - the market leading Business Process Modelling Tool. Using lots of screen shots and plenty of practical examples, Rob Davis shows how ARIS can be used to model 'your' business processes.Based on his experience of using ARIS in British Telecommunications plc, the author describes practical ways of using ARIS Toolset:- Explaining the models and techniques that will enable new users to start modelling quickly and effectively.- Introducing tips and short cuts which make using the tool much easier.- Giving insights into the ARIS concepts.- Explaining the rationale behind alternative ways of using the tool, their benefits and the trade-offs involved.- Tackling issues found in real projects (e.g. complex model structures, handling variety, etc), as opposed to the simple examples given in many books.In addition to describing how to use the tool, Rob Davis discusses how to create standards for using ARIS as well as giving guidance on how to use ARIS for process capture and design.Business Process Modelling with ARIS is a 'must have'for every user of ARIS.

During the past two decades, the consideration of mUltiple objectives in modeling and decision making has grown by leaps and bounds. The nineties in particular have seen the emphasis shift from the dominance of single-objective modeling and optimization toward an emphasis on multiple objectives. The proceedings of this Conference epitomize these evolutionary changes and contribute to the important role that the tield of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) now plays in planning, design, operational, management, and policy decisions. Of special interest are the contributions of MCDM to manufacturing engineering. For example, it has recently been recognized that optimal, single-objective solutions have often been pursued at the expense of the much broader applicability of designs and solutions that satisfy multiple objectives. In particular, the theme (MCDM and Its Worldwide Role in Risk-Based Decision Making) of the XIVth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making (Charlottesville, Virginia, USA, June 8-12, 1998) represents the growing importance of risk-cost-benefit analysis in decision making and in engineering design and manufacturing. In such systems, minimizing the of rare and extreme events emerges as an essential objective that risk complements the minimization of the traditional expected value of risk, along with the objectives attached to cost and performance. These proceedings include forty-five papers that were presented at the Conference. A variety of techniques have been proposed for solving multiple criteria decision-making problems. The emphasis and style of the different techniques largely reflect the fields of expertise of their developers.

Sociotechnical principles are now widely used around the world in both information systems and organisational design. First established in the 1940s to examine the effect of mechanised, mass-production systems on workers in the coal mining industry, they are now an important tool for ensuring that people and technology work together to optimal effect within an organisation. One of their main aims is the development of organisations where small groups work independently, handling sets of varied tasks, and managing their own activities.
The main features of this book include: Practical experiences of applying sociotechnical approaches from around the world; Focus on future directions for the topic and modern applications of existing principles; Contributions from leading figures such as Enid Mumford; A Foreword by Frank Land.

Mathematical models are being increasingly used to estimate the concentrations of a wide range of substances in the environment for a variety of reasons, including government control and legislation, and risk and hazard estimation. Exposure assessment has to be performed for many types of substances, including pesticides, industrial chemicals, pollutants, accidental discharges, etc. The interpretation of the results of model equations should always bear in mind the purpose for which the model used was built in the first place. Further, models are always an abstraction of reality, requiring simplifying assumptions to keep the models within the restraints posed by computer performance and/or scientific knowledge. The present book treats the theme of modelling chemical exposure and risk in terms of four main topics: model characteristics, applications, comparison of estimated with measured concentrations, and modelling credibility.

This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Symposium on Operations Research 2000 (OR 2000) held at the Dresden University of Technology, September 9-12, 2000. This international Symposium was organized by the German Operations Research Society GOR in the series of its annual conferences. The Symposium had 354 participants from IS countries around the world. The 210 lectures reflected the broad spectrum of Operations Research and its interdisciplinarity, involving economics, mathematics and computer science. The volume is arranged in 14 Sections, like the conference, and a special section with the papers of the winners of the GOR Diploma Thesis award. The 86 papers have been selected by the chairpersons of the sections and the editors. Compared to previous conferences, the number of sections has been reduced by combining some overlapping sections: The former sections for linear and nonlinear programming are now contained in the 'Continuous Optimization' Section, the graph theory has been included in the 'Discrete and Combinatorial Optimization' Section. The traditional application fields are growing together in the scope of the current 'Supply Chain Management' thinking. This is considered in a corresponding section. Its high number of papers at the conference and in this volume underlines the importance of Operations Research for this modem management concept. For the first time, the conference included a section on 'Didactics of Operations Research', which found a great echo and is represented by four papers in this volume.

That's what every business wants to be.  And that's why the U.S. Marines excel in every mission American throws at them, no matter how tough the odds.  In Corps Business, journalist David H. Freeman identifies the Marine's simple but devastatingly effective principles for managing people and resources -- and ultimately winning.  Freedman discusses such techniques as "the rule of three," "managing by end state," and the "70% solution," to show how they can be applied to business solutions.

'The New Knowledge Management' is the story of the birth of "second-generation knowledge management," told from the perspective of one its chief architects, Mark W. McElroy. Unlike its first-generation cousin, second-generation Knowledge Management seeks to enhance knowledge production, not just knowledge sharing. As a result, 'The New Knowledge Management' expands the overall reach of knowledge management to include "innovation management" for the very first time.
'The New Knowledge Management' introduces the concept of "second-generation knowledge management" to the business community. Mark W. McElroy has assembled a collection of his own essays, written over the past four years, chronicling the development of related thinking in the field.
Unlike first-generation KM, mainly focusing on value derived from knowledge sharing, second-generation thinking formally adds knowledge making to the scope of KM. In this way second-generation KM expands the overall reach of KM to include "innovation management" for the very first time. 'The New Knowledge Management' finally begins to bridge the gap between KM and the field of organizational learning, which up until now have been viewed as miles apart.
* Charts the next generation of knowledge management thinking by the President of KMCI: the leading KM organization
* Expands the overall reach of knowledge management to include "innovation management" for the very first time
* Mark W. McElroy, chief architect of second-generation Knowledge Management, shares his vast experience in a collection of his own essays

Concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere have increased dramatically over the last century and many of these changes are attributable to anthropogenic activities. The influence of acid rain has been well studied, but there has been no extensive exploration of other pollutants, such as toxic chemicals, heavy metals and radionuclides. Natural ecosystems, especially forests, tend to accumulate many of these pollutants which subsequently can affect ecosystem health. These contaminants may be very damaging to the environment in Eastern Europe, where the rapid disappearance of forest is the result not only of contamination but also of poor forest management practices. The current book is designed to reduce the uncertainty in our current knowledge of forest radioecology. The three topics it embraces are (a) Modelling, (b) Measurements and Data, and (c) Countermeasures and Risk Assessment.

Human health as well as aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are threatened from increa sing levels of environmental radiation of various sources, many of them of anthropoge nic causality: large areas of the former Soviet Union suffer from radioactive pollution, in particular after the Chemobyl accident; the increase in the incidence of UVB radiati on at the Earth's surface as a result of a progressive depletion of stratospheric ozone is a global problem that requires international concerted actions; in areas of former uranium mining the natural radiation level is substantially increased due to elevated radon levels; a growing portion of the population involved in air traffic is exposed to increased levels of natural radiation; and with the International Space Station an increasing number of astronauts will be exposed to the complex field of cosmic radiation. To estimate the corresponding risks, a better knowledge of the underlying radiobiological mechanisms at the molecular, cellular and system level is required. This book is the result of a multidisciplinary effort to discuss the current state of knowledge of the fundamental processes that result from interactions of environmental radiation -ionizing as well as UV radiation -with living matter and the existing radiati on protection concepts, and then to define future research work needed as fundamental information for the assessment of risks from increased levels of environmental radiation to human health and ecosystem balance. It comprises the key lectures and statements presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop.

This volume brings together the best-known and most influential articles on sensemaking by one of its most distinguished exponents, Karl Weick.

Weick explores the process of how organizations discover that they face important decisions. Often organizations have discussions in order to see what they think, or act in order to see what they want - before they are even aware that a decision has to be made. The effective organization is one that understands this process of sensemaking and learns to manage it with wisdom. The ways in which people do that are demonstrated in chapters of this book.

This important collection provides a valuable addition to the international literature on organization theory and will be welcomed by students and researchers alike.

This volume contains selected papers that were presented at the International Conference COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE 1997 held at London Business School on December 15-17 1997. Formerly known as Neural Networks in the Capital Markets (NNCM), this series of meetings has emerged as a truly multi-disciplinary international conference and provided an international focus for innovative research on the application of a multiplicity of advanced decision technologies to many areas of financial engineering. It has drawn upon theoretical advances in financial economics and robust methodological developments in the statistical, econometric and computer sciences. To reflect its multi-disciplinary nature, the NNCM conference has adopted the new title COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE. The papers in this volume are organised in six parts. Market Dynamics and Risk, Trading and Arbitrage strategies, Volatility and Options, Term-Structure and Factor models, Corporate Distress Models and Advances on Methodology. This years' acceptance rate (38%) reflects both the increasing interest in the conference and the Programme Committee's efforts to improve the quality of the meeting year-on-year. I would like to thank the members of the programme committee for their efforts in refereeing the papers. I also would like to thank the members of the computational finance group at London Business School and particularly Neil Burgess, Peter Bolland, Yves Bentz, and Nevil Towers for organising the meeting.

This book seeks to explain why the changes produced by the new managerialism have been more radical in some countries than in others. Saint-Martin shows that the reception given by states to managerialist ideas depends on the openness of policy-making institutions to outside expert knowledge and on the organization, development, and social recognition of management consultancy.

Many organizations are embracing knowledge management as a source of strategic advantage. But already people are asking: "what comes next?" Likewise almost every large organization is heavily involved in e-commerce and turning their organizations into e-businesses. At the moment most e-commerce is focused on selling traditional products and services through the new medium of the Internet. However, the more an organization evolves into an e-business, the more they can exploit knowledge flows between themselves and their marketplace. This book draws together the two strands of knowledge and e-business into the emerging field that this book has called k-business. A k-business is one that turns an organization's knowledge assets into knowledge products and services and uses the Internet to market and deliver them online. Despite its newness, the Delphi Group have forecast that within 5 years person-to-person information e-commerce (a major aspect of k-business) will be a $5 billion business leveraging $50 billion in sales of other products and services.
Capitalizing on Knowledge aims to give professionals and managers early insights into how to develop successful k-businesses. It takes a critical and balanced view of the building blocks of a k-business including knowledge productizing, e-commerce enablers and Internet marketing. It draws on lessons from successes and failures in the dot.com landscape and of the early pioneers of knowledge markets. The writing style engenders interest and readability supported by diagrams, screen images, check lists and frameworks. There are 'points to ponder' to stimulate thinking and decision-making. Five case studies and over 50 illustrative examplesprovide insights into the application of the book's concepts. No other book brings all the elements of a k-business together in one place to provide a thought provoking yet practical companion for those who want to capitalize on their knowledge.
Demonstrates how the overlap of the two high profile strands of e-business and knowledge management is creating new k-business opportunities
Describes new business models for marketing knowledge over the Internet
Provides practical guidelines for packaging knowledge and participating in knowledge markets.

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

How do managers of a firm choose between alternative finan cial policies? Can the choice of a particular financial policy affect the value of the firm? Since the early 1960s, the debate on these questions has been lively and interesting as economists have inves tigated the effect on the value of the firm of relaxing the various assumptions in the celebrated Modigliani-Miller theory. Further more, even if we stick to the MM-assumptions (that is, we assume perfect and complete capital markets, no taxes and symmetric information), and we therefore know that only optimally chosen investments determine firm's value, another interesting question arises: How does the structure of ownership affect investment de cisions (and, in turn, values)? This research monograph attempts to analyze some of the issues involved in this debate. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics and is intended to appeal to mathematical economists as well as economists and mathemati cians. It is meant to deal with economically relevant problems in a mathematically adequate way. To decide whether or not it succeeds in this task, it is up to the reader. I am greatly indebted to Dr. Margaret Bray for her supervi sion of my PhD thesis in Economics at the London School of Eco nomics from which this book resulted. She helped me as friend and adviser through many struggles in the last three years and invested a great amount of work in this thesis."

This book helps readers develop a comprehensive understanding of diagnostics for strategic decision-making, with a focus on a method called rapid due diligence. This method presents a compelling solution to the need for effective diagnostics, drawing on academic rigor, critical thinking, systems dynamics, and advanced practicum to enable sound strategic decision-making. Guiding the reader through the six stages of the process from discovery, through analysis, synthesis, and interpretation, Thompsen engages all typical postgraduate disciplines in producing insights for practical application. Drawing on similarities with applied social science research, the rapid due diligence method is supported with scores of techniques, tools, instructions, guidelines, practical advice, and examples. Detailed cases and abbreviated examples of a variety of real strategic situations are provided from organizations operating in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and Australia. Ideal for graduate students, organizational leaders, and decision makers, this book is designed to invite deeper understanding and practical application of a strategic diagnostic process that discovers insights for achieving positive results.

This volume contains a collection of papers presented at the 13th Interna- tional Conference on MUltiple Criteria Decision Making held in Cape Town during 6--10 January 1997. This was one of the regular conferences of the International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, which are held at approximately two-yearly intervals. The 13th conference was attended by 143 delegates from 35 countries, and 123 papers were presented. Some of the papers which were presented are included in another volume published by Springer, namely the "festschrift" for Professor Stanley Zionts of Buffalo, New York, entitled Essays in Decision rnaJcing: A Volume in Honour of Stan- ley Zionts (edited by Mark H Karwan, Jaap Spronk and Jyrki Wallenius). The present volume provides a record of the technical part of the pro- ceedings of the conference. In reflecting back on January 1997, however, memories return of the social occasions, and the camaraderie which devel- oped amongst the MCDM community. Early January, at the height of the southern summer, is carnival time in Cape Town, and the mood is infectious, and was enhanced amongst those from the northern hemisphere (the major- ity of delegates) who overnight went from winter'chills (as low as -30 C) to over 30 C.

New and expanded edition. An International Bestseller - Over One Million Copies Sold! Shortlisted for the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award. Since Aristotle, we have fought to understand the causes behind everything. But this ideology is fading. In the age of big data, we can crunch an incomprehensible amount of information, providing us with invaluable insights about the what rather than the why. We're just starting to reap the benefits: tracking vital signs to foresee deadly infections, predicting building fires, anticipating the best moment to buy a plane ticket, seeing inflation in real time and monitoring social media in order to identify trends. But there is a dark side to big data. Will it be machines, rather than people, that make the decisions? How do you regulate an algorithm? What will happen to privacy? Will individuals be punished for acts they have yet to commit? In this groundbreaking and fascinating book, two of the world's most-respected data experts reveal the reality of a big data world and outline clear and actionable steps that will equip the reader with the tools needed for this next phase of human evolution.

Recent debate in both Europe and North America has focussed on how clinicians make judgments and decisions, how these may be evaluated and how they could be improved. This volume provides students, teachers and practitioners with a comprehensive introduction to the main descriptive and prescriptive approaches to judgment and decision making in clinical medicine. The contributors, who include psychologists, economists, decision theorists, statisticians, lawyers and sociologists, as well as medical specialists, provide examples of recent empirical research and its applications, as well as outlining the relevant concepts and theories. Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert ('knowledg-based') systems and decision analysis are the main techniques introduced, with attention to both their methodological bases and practical evaluation. Also included in the collection are a series of papers which consider the economic, ethical and legal contexts of clinical activity and the education and wider socialization of clinicians. Issues surrounding the 'cost-effective' use of resources, the obtaining of 'informed consent' from patients and ethical behaviour under uncertainty are highlighted.

Network optimization is important in the modeling of problems and processes from such fields as engineering, computer science, operations research, transportation, telecommunication, decision support systems, manufacturing, and airline scheduling. Recent advances in data structures, computer technology, and algorithm development have made it possible to solve classes of network optimization problems that until recently were intractable. The refereed papers in this volume reflect the interdisciplinary efforts of a large group of scientists from academia and industry to model and solve complicated large-scale network optimization problems.