This book provides a detailed examination of the complex negotiation processes surrounding intergovernmental conferences in the European Union. Since the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) and its 'appendix', the Treaty of Nice in 2002, any reform of the constitutional framework of the European Union experiences formidable difficulties. By presenting an extensive study of the Intergovernmental Conference of 1996/7 prior to the Treaty of Amsterdam, the authors argue that these negotiations reveal major challenges of European integration. They contend that multi-level negotiations require an appropriate coordination of informal administrative networks and the empowerment of administrative leadership, with these factors significantly shaping the dynamics and outcomes of negotiations. Through these findings, this book lays down the foundation for future evidence-based support and evaluation of multilateral negotiations, and delivers new insights on decision-making within the European Union. It draws on advanced statistical methods and network analysis. European Union Intergovernmental Conferences will be of interest to students and researchers of political science, sociology, administrative science, business and management studies, international law and European law.

Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents research from leaders in the field on such topics as Problem Structuring Methodologies; Measurement Theory and MCDA; Recent Developments in Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization; Habitual Domains and Dynamic MCDM in Changeable Spaces; Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis; and many more chapters.

"The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk." -Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don't wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of "crying wolf" than sound an alarm. Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet, we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction? In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses: *How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events-and how these decisions can go awry *The 6 biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives *The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them *Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less Fast-reading and critically important, The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy-makers who want to build more prepared communities.

Wiley's new "Handbook of Decision Making" is a vital reference text for all students and professionals of management, organization and decision making. The handbook offers a wide range of theoretical and empirical approaches to the understanding of organizational and strategic decisions. Contributors are internationally known experts drawn from North America, Canada and Europe who have spent many years in the study of decision making, and decision making relevant topics. We believe the handbook will become a tour de force in the understanding decision making, offering a wide variety of perspectives, topics, and summative understanding of the field. Chapters in the "Handbook" were prepared by the leading experts in their field and include cutting edge empirical, theoretical, and review chapters. The chapters bring together for the first time a critical mass of writing on decision making as an organizational and research activity. The Editors are two of the leading international experts in decision making and contribute to the "Handbook" with five original Chapters that offer an appraisal of the field and suggestions for research, as well as the current status of decision making practice and suggestion for improvement.

Risk control and derivative pricing have become of major concern to financial institutions, and there is a real need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of the financial markets. Summarising theoretical developments in the field, this 2003 second edition has been substantially expanded. Additional chapters now cover stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo methods, Black-Scholes theory, the theory of the yield curve, and Minority Game. There are discussions on aspects of data analysis, financial products, non-linear correlations, and herding, feedback and agent based models. This book has become a classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics and mathematical finance, and for quantitative analysts working on risk management, derivative pricing and quantitative trading strategies.

"The chapters in this volume offer useful case studies, technical roadmaps, lessons learned, and a few prescriptions to 'do this, avoid that.'" -From the Foreword by Joe LaCugna, Ph.D., Enterprise Analytics and Business Intelligence, Starbucks Coffee Company With the growing barrage of "big data," it becomes vitally important for organizations to make sense of this data and information in a timely and effective way. That's where analytics come into play. Research shows that organizations that use business analytics to guide their decision making are more productive and experience higher returns on equity. Big Data and Business Analytics helps you quickly grasp the trends and techniques of big data and business analytics to make your organization more competitive. Packed with case studies, this book assembles insights from some of the leading experts and organizations worldwide. Spanning industry, government, not-for-profit organizations, and academia, they share valuable perspectives on big data domains such as cybersecurity, marketing, emergency management, healthcare, finance, and transportation. Understand the trends, potential, and challenges associated with big data and business analytics Get an overview of machine learning, advanced statistical techniques, and other predictive analytics that can help you solve big data issues Learn from VPs of Big Data/Insights & Analytics via case studies of Fortune 100 companies, government agencies, universities, and not-for-profits Big data problems are complex. This book shows you how to go from being data-rich to insight-rich, improving your decision making and creating competitive advantage. Author Jay Liebowitz recently had an article published in The World Financial Review. www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=1904

Rebekka Sputtek sheds light upon the question of how the personality and emotional traits of executives influence their decision making and leadership behavior. While recent strategic management research has started to recognize the relevance of an executive's personality traits as antecedents of organizational outcomes, this stream has called for a more fine-grained clarification of the psychological processes underlying executive decision making. In order to contribute to the understanding of these processes, a holistic model integrating the role of an expedient set of personality variables and anger in executive's decision making comprehensiveness as well as authenticity of transformational leadership is developed.

The book analyzes, compares, and contrasts tools and techniques used in risk management at corporate, strategic business and project level and develops a risk management mechanism for the sequencing of risk assessment through corporate, strategic and project stages of an investment in order to meet the requirements of the 1999 Turnbull report. By classifying and categorizing risk within these levels it is possible to drill down and roll-up to any level of the organizational structure and to establish the risks that each project is most sensitive to, so that appropriate risk response strategies may be implemented to benefit all stakeholders.

"The new edition of this book provides a clear insight into the intricacies of corporate risk management and the addition of the case study exemplars aids understanding of the management of multiple projects in the real world."
--Professor Nigel Smith, Head of the School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Today's working world has become excessively demanding due to the globalisation of businesses, increasing competition, accelerated technological progress, more sophisticated and informed customers as well as a continuous need to increase innovative abilities to remain competitive. Employees with their skills, knowledge and engagement form the competitive advantage and therefore significantly contribute to the overall organisational success. Therefore, a company's ability to efficiently attract the right Generation Y talents - a culturally diverse workforce born after 1980 - through efficient target group-oriented employer branding strategies is gaining in importance. This book examines the influence of the two main phenomena - cultural and generational - on shaping the employment expectations of 459 university graduates in Economics and Business Administration of two different nationalities. Using the methods of moderated multiple regressions and simple slopes analysis, the author develops an explicit conceptual framework for examining different influences that shape employment expectations of a diverse Gen Y workforce in an international context. These expectations should be viewed as a starting point for every employer branding campaign.

DECISIONS focuses on how organizations can improve decision-making processes to improve organizational performance in a global economy. * Presents research related to problems associated with meeting requirements, schedules, and costs * Defines the scope of macro and micro decisions * Raises the issue of the role of engineering, manufacturing, and marketing in making organizational decisions * Includes references to Peter Drucker s studies on decision-making

Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders' aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

Increasingly, environmental decision making is like playing a multidimensional game of chess. With interactions between the atmosphere, the litho-hydrosphere, and the biosphere, the game is at once a measure of complexity, uncertainty, interdisciplinary acuity, social-environmental sustainability, and social justice for all generations. As such, it demands a systemic point of view. Decision Making for a Sustainable Environment: A Systemic Approach gives readers the tools to replace the dysfunctional, symptomatic decision making that has plunged the world into environmental crises with a systemic approach that fosters social-environmental sustainability. A New Paradigm for Environmental Decision Making Based on the author's more than 45 years of research and broad, international experience, this book guides policy makers and managers to work with-rather than within-theoretical and methodological frameworks to achieve multidimensional and multilayered policy decisions. It discusses systemic thinking as a rational, viable alternative to competitive, materialistic, and symptomatic decision making. Insights, Approaches, and Examples for Leadership Organized into three parts, the book begins by describing the inviolable biophysical principles that define the limitations of human choices. The second part examines in depth why the conventional command-and-control form of decision making tends to become dysfunctional and fails. It also explains how to break the cycle of such behavior. A case study by Jessica K. La Porte explores the challenges of creating a program of environmentally sustainable decision making. The third part of the book explores what it takes to be a psychologically mature decision maker. A Peaceful Path toward Social-Environmental Sustainability for All Generations Proposing new ways of thinking and problem solving, this book provides readers with the ideas, language, approaches, and examples to move toward genuine social-environmental sustainability. It offers counsel on how to be a psychologically mature trustee of planet Earth and leave a more viable legacy for future generations.

Why are vast sums spent on controlling some risks but not others? Is there any logic to the techniques we use in risk regulation? These are key questions explored in The Government of Risk. This book exposes the components of risk regulation systems and examines their interaction and explanation. The approach employed is of a high policy relevance as well as of considerable theoretical importance.

This book offers key insights into how to manage software development across international boundaries. It is based on a series of case studies looking at the relationships between firms from North America, the UK, Japan and Korea with Indian software houses. In these case studies, which have typically been compiled over a 3-4 year timespan, the authors analyse the multi-faceted challenges encountered in managing these Global Software Alliances (GSAs). These challenges range from the conflicts that managers face when dealing with distance, to the tensions of transferring knowledge across time and space, to issues in trying to establish universal standards in a context of constant change, and the problems of identity that developers and clients experience in having to deal with different organizations and countries. Throughout the book, the authors draw on their extensive research and experience to offer constructive advice on how to manage GSAs more effectively.

The ability to make the right decision is crucial to anyone who wants to advance their career. Written by Martin Manser, a leading expert on decision making in a business context, this book quickly teaches you the insider secrets you need to know to in order to choose the right path. The highly motivational 'in a week' structure of the book provides seven straightforward chapters explaining the key points, and at the end there are optional questions to ensure you have taken it all in. There are also cartoons and diagrams throughout, to help make this book a more enjoyable and effective learning experience. So what are you waiting for? Let this book put you on the fast track to success!

Artificial Intelligence is a seemingly neutral technology, but it is increasingly used to manage workforces and make decisions to hire and fire employees. Its proliferation in the workplace gives the impression of a fairer, more efficient system of management. A machine can't discriminate, after all. Augmented Exploitation explores the reality of the impact of AI on workers' lives. While the consensus is that AI is a completely new way of managing a workplace, the authors show that, on the contrary, AI is used as most technologies are used under capitalism: as a smokescreen that hides the deep exploitation of workers. Going beyond platform work and the gig economy, the authors explore emerging forms of algorithmic governance and AI-augmented apps that have been developed to utilise innovative ways to collect data about workers and consumers, as well as to keep wages and worker representation under control. They also show that workers are not taking this lying down, providing case studies of new and exciting form of resistance that are springing up across the globe.

Imagine if you could fit your business strategy on a single sheet of paper? Imagine having your plans, action points and progress report all in one place? Imagine how easy it would be to share your plans with other people? Now you can, with this innovative 4-step strategic planning tool, known as OGSM. It will help you streamline your thinking as well as your writing and develop a one-page plan that gets you results fast. With an accompanying app! "A must-read for anyone who wants to make a strategic plan that definitely delivers results." Conny Braams, Senior VP Operations, Unilever Food Solutions

The fun and simple problem-solving guide that took Japan by storm
Ken Watanabe originally wrote "Problem Solving 101" for Japanese schoolchildren. His goal was to help shift the focus in Japanese education from memorization to critical thinking, by adapting some of the techniques he had learned as an elite McKinsey consultant.
He was amazed to discover that adults were hungry for his fun and easy guide to problem solving and decision making. The book became a surprise Japanese bestseller, with more than 370,000 in print after six months. Now American businesspeople can also use it to master some powerful skills.
Watanabe uses sample scenarios to illustrate his techniques, which include logic trees and matrixes. A rock band figures out how to drive up concert attendance. An aspiring animator budgets for a new computer purchase. Students decide which high school they will attend.
Illustrated with diagrams and quirky drawings, the book is simple enough for a middleschooler to understand but sophisticated enough for business leaders to apply to their most challenging problems.

This book outlines the creative process of making environmental management decisions using the approach called "Structured Decision Making." It is a short introductory guide to this popular form of decision making and is aimed at environmental managers and scientists. ""This is a distinctly pragmatic label given to ways for helping individuals and groups think through tough multidimensional choices characterized by uncertain science, diverse stakeholders, and difficult tradeoffs. This is the everyday reality of environmental management, yet many important decisions currently are made on an ad hoc basis that lacks a solid value-based foundation, ignores key information, and results in selection of an inferior alternative. Making progress - in a way that is rigorous, inclusive, defensible and transparent - requires combining analytical methods drawn from the decision sciences and applied ecology with deliberative insights from cognitive psychology, facilitation and negotiation. The authors review key methods and discuss case-study examples based in their experiences in communities, boardrooms, and stakeholder meetings. The goal of this book is to lay out a compelling guide that will change how you think about making environmental decisions.

Visit www.wiley.com/go/gregory/sdm to access the figures and tables from the book.

Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance, Second Edition presents an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to the main concepts and methods that transform risk management into a quantitative science. Taking into account the interdisciplinary nature of risk analysis, the author discusses many important ideas from mathematics, finance, and actuarial science in a simplified manner. He explores the interconnections among these disciplines and encourages readers toward further study of the subject. This edition continues to study risks associated with financial and insurance contracts, using an approach that estimates the value of future payments based on current financial, insurance, and other information. New to the Second Edition Expanded section on the foundations of probability and stochastic analysis Coverage of new topics, including financial markets with stochastic volatility, risk measures, risk-adjusted performance measures, and equity-linked insurance More worked examples and problems Reorganized and expanded, this updated book illustrates how to use quantitative methods of stochastic analysis in modern financial mathematics. These methods can be naturally extended and applied in actuarial science, thus leading to unified methods of risk analysis and management.

Games, or contexts of strategic interaction, pervade and suffuse our lives and the lives of all organisms. How are we to make sense of and cope with such situations? How should an agent play? When will and when won't cooperation arise and be maintained? Using examples and a careful digestion of the literature, Agents, Games, and Evolution: Strategies at Work and Play addresses these encompassing themes throughout, and is organized into four parts: Part I introduces classical game theory and strategy selection. It compares ideally rational and the "naturalist" approach used by this book, which focuses on how actual agents chose their strategies, and the effects of these strategies on model systems. Part II explores a number of basic games, using models in which agents have fixed strategies. This section draws heavily on the substantial literature associated with the relevant application areas in the social sciences. Part III reviews core results and applications of agent-based models in which strategic interaction is present and for which design issues have genuine practical import. This section draws heavily on the substantial literature associated with the application area to hand. Part IV addresses miscellaneous topics in strategic interaction, including lying in negotiations, reasoning by backward induction, and evolutionary models. Modeled after the authors' Agents, Games, and Evolution course at the University of Pennsylvania, this book keeps mathematics to a minimum, focusing on computational strategies and useful methods for dealing with a variety of situations.

Together, Big Data, high-performance computing, and complex environments create unprecedented opportunities for organizations to generate game-changing insights that are based on hard data. Business Analytics: An Introduction explains how to use business analytics to sort through an ever-increasing amount of data and improve the decision-making capabilities of an organization. Covering the key areas of business analytics, the book explores the concepts, techniques, applications, and emerging trends that professionals across a wide range of industries need to be aware of. Better detection of fraud through visual analytics or better prediction of the likelihood of someone getting an infection while in the hospital are just a few examples of where analytics can play a positive role. As the field of business analytics continues to emerge rapidly, there is a need for a reliable textbook and reference on the subject. Filling this need, this book is suitable for graduate-level students and undergraduate seniors. It maintains a focus on only the key areas so the material can be covered adequately in a one-semester or one-quarter course. Each chapter includes software-generic exercises, labs, and associated answers to the exercises/labs. Author Jay Liebowitz recently had an article published in The World Financial Review. www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=1904

Collaborative decision making processes are a form of communication inside organizations. Their functioning can teach lessons for the design of electronic office systems. Those processes are open ended and therefore decide themselves on their form. Like oral deliberations which cannot be modelled in advance any open ended communication process needs means for common control over the further advancement and the ending of the process.

The history of German administrative practice and its special methods of using disposals for the control of common processes shows the creation of records as based on communication needs generated by the intention of joint actions. For electronic decision making processes the purposes remain the same, but the means have to follow the effects of electronic communication on messages.

The book is a reworked English version of a thesis for the official qualification for university professorship accepted by the German University of Administrative Sciences Speyer. Germany.