Advances in information technology provide opportunities for the development of computer systems that support risk managers in complex tasks. Leading experts report on the potentials and limitations concerning the use of computer systems in risk management. Their reports are based on many years of experience in their fields which include: risk analysis, systems engineering, geographic information systems, decision support systems, human--machine systems, and psychology. The book addresses four major issues in computer supported risk management: Conceptual aspects: the role, design, and use of computers in risk management Planning and policy analysis: transportation, equity analysis, emergency management, group decision making Operational decision making: nuclear power monitoring, emergency response, public safety warning, satellite tracking Commercial applications: GIS from IIASA, InterClair from IAEA, EPA software, cleanup decision support software survey. This book is meant for researchers, who will find the emerging issues in risk management that are motivated by the encounter of new tasks and novel technology; practitioners who will have descriptions and references of the state-of-the-art models and software; and students who will learn the basic concepts needed to develop advanced information and decision support systems in risk management.

Nonlinearity and stochastic structural dynamics is of common interest to engineers and applied scientists belonging to many disciplines. Recent research in this area has been concentrated on the response and stability of nonlinear mechanical and structural systems subjected to random escitation. Simultaneously the focus of research has also been directed towards understanding intrinsic nonlinear phenomena like bifurcation and chaos in deterministic systems. These problems demand a high degree of sophistication in the analytical and numerical approaches. At the same time they arise from considerations of nonlinear system response to turbulence, earthquacke, wind, wave and guidancy excitations. The topic thus attracts votaries of both analytical rigour and practical applications. This books gives important and latest developments in the field presenting in a coherent fashion the research findings of leading international groups working in the area of nonlinear random vibration and chaos.

The series Advances in Industrial Control aims to report and encourage technology transfer in control engineering. The rapid development of control technology has an impact on all areas of the control discipline. New theory, new controllers, actuators, sensors, new industrial processes, computer methods, new applications, new philosophies. . . , new challenges. Much of this development work resides in industrial reports, feasibility study papers and the reports of advanced collaborative projects. The series offers an opportunity for researchers to present an extended exposition of such new work in all aspects of industrial control for widerand rapid dissemination. Benchmarking is a technique first applied by Rank Xerox in the late 1970s for business processes. As a subject in the commercial arena, benchmarking thrives with, for example, a European Benchmarking Forum. It has taken rather longer for benchmarking to make the transfer to the technical domain and even now the subject is making a slow headway. Akey research step in this direction was taken by Harris (1989) who used minimum variance control as a benchmark for controller loop assessment. This contribution opened up the area and a significant specialist literature has now developed. Significant support for the methodologywas given by Honeywell who have controller assessment routines in their process control applications software; therefore, it is timely to welcome a (first) monograph on controller performance assessment by Biao Huang and Sirish Shah to the Advances in Industrial Control series.

The use of tritium as a basic fuel material in a thermonuclear fusion reactor raises particular safety issues due to the combined effects of its physicochemical properties and its radioactive nature. Furthermore, the possibility of attaining further significant progress in developing and demonstrating the feasibility of tritium burning devices relies on the handling of tritium macroquantities, say tens of grams, in a safe and reliable manner. It is also certain that, apart from technological constraints, any validation and exploitation of thermonuclear fusion as a source of energy will be strongly conditioned by the application of stringent operational and environmental safety criteria derived from the norms of modern legislation and public acceptance considerations. This publication illustrates the most prominent safety aspects associated with the safe operation, maintenance and experimental utilization of a tritium handling facility. Besides the need for safe and reliable systems for tritium containment, monitoring and storage, particular attention is devoted to problems linked with tritium--material interaction and tritium processing, according to the different options applicable both to the tritium handling laboratory and future fusion devices. Selected topics, such as biological hazard, dosimetry, radiological protection and environmental safety are reviewed with particular attention to implications for operators and general public. Finally, outstanding experience gained during the recent JET operation and after many years of dismantling tritiated facilities at CEN--Valduc are illustrated. The book is principally addressed to scientists concerned with tritium R&D activities, as well as to designers and operators of tritium handling plants.

This collection of papers is a state of the art presentation of theories and methods related to the problem of the behaviour of mechanical structures under variable loads beyond their elastic limit In particular, the problems of shakedown, ratchetting, transient and asymptotic cyclic states are addressed. The volume is composed of four chapters devoted to material modelling for cyclic loading conditions; general theory of accommodated states of structures; effects of changes of the geometry on the inelastic structural response; and numerical techniques with applications to particular engineering problems. It was aimed to provide a unified approach in order to understand both inelastic material and structural response under variable loading conditions. The attempt to extend the classical shakedown theory of Melan and Koiter to geometrically non-linear problems is presented in several papers. The industrial application of cyclic plasticity to the analysis and the design of pressure bellows, compensators, turbine disks, or flange connections under thermal and pressure cycles illustrates the great potential of the numerical techniques developed for this purpose using mostly min-max approaches. The treatment of railway problems and the analysis and optimisation of pavements are further examples of important areas of applications. Emphasis was laid on approaches that take into account the fact that loading histories are often not precisely known Therefore, the center of interest lies in other than step by step calculation methods.

In this global wake-up call, nuclear physicist Jeff Eerkens explores remedies for the impending energy crisis, when oil and natural gas are depleted. The Nuclear Imperative demonstrates that solar, wind, and biomass power are incapable of supplying the enormous quantities of electricity and heat needed for manufacturing portable synthetic fuels to replace our current use of fossil fuels. It offers a fresh look at uranium-produced energy as the optimal affordable solution.

This book presents thirty-one extensive and carefully edited chapters providing an up-to-date survey of new models and methods for reliability analysis and applications in science, engineering, and technology. The chapters contain broad coverage of the latest developments and innovative techniques in a wide range of theoretical and numerical issues in the field of statistical and probabilistic methods in reliability.

Industrial development is essential to improvement of the standard of living in all countries. People's health and the environment can be affected, directly or indirectly by routine waste discharges or by accidents. A series of recent major industrial accidents and the effect of pollution highlighted, once again, the need for better management of routine and accidental risks. Moreover, the existence of natural hazards complicate even more the situation in any given region. In the past effort to cope with these risks, if made at all, have been largely on a plant by plant basis; some plants are well equipped to manage environmental and health hazards, while others are not. Managing the hazards of modern technological systems has become a key activity in highly industrialised countries. Decision makers are often confronted with complex issues concerning economic and social development, industrialisation and associated infrastructure needs, population and land use planning. Such issues have to be addressed in such a way that ensures that public health will not be disrupted or substantially degraded. Due to the increasing complexity of technological systems and the higher geographical density of punctual hazard sources, new methodologies and a novel approach to these problems are challenging risk managers and regional planers. Risks from these new complex technological systems are inherently different form those addressed by the risk managers for decades ago.

Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability play a crucial role in achieving a competitive product. While manufacturing costs are important for the success of a product, they are not the sole domains in realizing its competitive edge. Improved manufacturing and operating quality and performance coupled with reduced acquisition cost and in-service cost of ownership are important in achieving business success. It is the early phase of design which offers the greatest opportunity to address these requirements, and thus create life cycle effectiveness. The main objective of Reliability, Maintenance and Logistic Support - A Life Cycle Approach is to provide an integrated approach to reliability, maintainability, maintenance and logistic support analysis. We not only look at the ways we can improve the design process to ensure the product offers value for money, but we also consider how the owners can get the most from these products once they have entered service. The approach provides a meaningful way of integrating reliability, maintenance and supportability to enhance the product performance and sales opportunities. Hence, the book covers the following objectives: (1) Introduce the concepts of reliability, maintainability and supportability and their role in the system life cycle and effectiveness. (2) Introduce the basic probability and statistical techniques that are essential for modelling reliability, maintainability and supportability problems. (3) Introduce reliability measures: how to predict them; how to determine from in-service real-world data; how to use them. (4) Analysis of advanced models in Reliability. (5) Discuss basic and advanced concepts in both maintainability and maintenance including preventive, corrective and condition based maintenance. (6) Discuss maintenance management and optimization concepts, such as reliability-centered maintenance and age-related maintenance. (7) Provide basic concepts in supportability and Integrated logistic support. (8) Discuss techniques for design for reliability, maintainability and supportability. (9) Analysis of simple and advanced models in spares forecasting and optimization. (10) Discuss data analysis, data management and data mining techniques.

Optimization in Quality Control presents a broad survey of the state of the art in optimization in quality, and focuses on industrial and national competitiveness. Each chapter has been carefully developed and refereed anonymously by experts in the area of optimization in quality control. Some of the topics covered in this volume include: * fundamentals of optimization techniques * contemporary approaches to optimization models in process control * economic design of control charts * determining optimal target values in multiple criteria economic selection models * examining quality improvement schemes by trading off between expected warranty servicing costs and increasing manufacturing costs * designing optimal inspection plans. This book will serve as an important reference source for academics, professionals and researchers.

In recent years, rapid changes and improvements have been witnessed in the field of transformer condition monitoring and assessment, especially with the advances in computational intelligence techniques. Condition Monitoring and Assessment of Power Transformers Using Computational Intelligence applies a broad range of computational intelligence techniques to deal with practical transformer operation problems. The approaches introduced are presented in a concise and flowing manner, tackling complex transformer modelling problems and uncertainties occurring in transformer fault diagnosis. Condition Monitoring and Assessment of Power Transformers Using Computational Intelligence covers both the fundamental theories and the most up-to-date research in this rapidly changing field. Many examples have been included that use real-world measurements and realistic operating scenarios of power transformers to fully illustrate the use of computational intelligence techniques for a variety of transformer modelling and fault diagnosis problems. Condition Monitoring and Assessment of Power Transformers Using Computational Intelligence is a useful book for professional engineers and postgraduate students. It also provides a firm foundation for advanced undergraduate students in power engineering.

Modern society depends heavily upon a host of systems of varying complexity to perform the services required. The importance of reliability assumes new dimensions, primarily because of the higher cost of these highly complex machines required by mankind and the implication of their failure. This is why all industrial organizations wish to equip their scientists, engineers, managers and administrators with a knowledge of reliability concepts and applications. Based on the author's 20 years experience as reliability educator, researcher and consultant, Reliability Engineering introduces the reader systematically to reliability evaluation, prediction, allocation and optimization. It also covers further topics, such as maintainability and availability, software reliability, economics of reliability, reliability management, reliability testing, etc. A reliability study of some typical systems has been included to introduce the reader to the practical aspects. The book is intended for graduate students of engineering schools and also professional engineers, managers and reliability administrators as it has a wide coverage of reliability concepts.

Looks at quality management in a new way; Offers a very different mathematical tool set than traditionally employed for quality control problems; Yao is a leading researcher in the area of stochastic modeling and the author of a previous Springer book

Margot P. C. Weijnen, Zofia Lukszo and Geert Deconinck Abstract The infrastructures for electric power and information and telecommunication services are critical enablers for all economic activity. Both of these infrastructure systems evolved over time as networks-of-networks in an institutionally fr- mented landscape. In understanding and steering the emergent behaviour of these infrastructure systems both their physical network complexity and their social n- work complexity pose a formidable challenge. On top of the socio-technical c- plexity of the electricity infrastructure and the information and telecommunication infrastructure as such, the two infrastructure systems show unprecedented mutual interdependency. Unravelling this multi-level interdependency and identifying strategies to curb the new risks and vulnerabilities it implies for the reliability of electric power services is the goal of this book. It clearly shows that technical so- tions alone will not suffice to ensure the future reliability and security of electricity infrastructure operations. Keywords Cybersecurity * infrastructure vulnerability * infrastructure depend- cies * power systems 1. 1 Infrastructures Are Critical Infrastructures are the backbone of the economy and society. Especially the network bound infrastructures operated by public utilities and network industries provide essential services that are enabling for almost every economic and social activity. M. P. C. Weijnen (*) and Z. Lukszo Technology Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P. O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands e-mail: M. P. C. Weijnen@tudelft. nl; Z. Lukszo@tudelft. nl G. Deconinck K. U.

Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems discusses the use of computer simulation-based techniques and algorithms to determine reliability and availability (R and A) levels in complex systems. The book: shares theoretical or applied models and decision support systems that make use of simulation to estimate and to improve system R and A levels, forecasts emerging technologies and trends in the use of computer simulation for R and A and proposes hybrid approaches to the development of efficient methodologies designed to solve R and A-related problems in real-life systems. Dealing with practical issues, Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems is designed to support managers and system engineers in the improvement of R and A, as well as providing a thorough exploration of the techniques and algorithms available for researchers, and for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students.

Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. This Springer Essentials version offers an overview of the in-depth handbook and highlights some of the main points covered in the Handbook of Risk Theory. The topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This brief offers the essentials of the handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research and addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. The Essentials of Risk Theory brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. The Essentials of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.

We think we have scientific knowledge when we know the cause. (Aristotle, Posterior Analytics Book II, Part 11) About 12 years ago, when I was a graduate student, many people were concerned about my Ph. D. topic - investigating the effect of the complexity of procedu- lized tasks on the performance of human operators working in nuclear power plants. Although they agreed with the fact that procedures (especially emergency operating procedures) play a crucial role in securing the safety of nuclear power plants, it was amazing that most of them pointed out a very similar issue: "I cannot understand why operating personnel see any difficulty (or complexity) in condu- ing procedures, because all that they have to do is to follow a simple IF-THEN- ELSE rule as written. " Actually, this issue is closely related to one of the main questions I was recently asked, such as "Don't you think your work is too acad- ic to apply to actual procedures?" or "I guess we don't need to consider the c- plexity of procedures, because we can develop a good procedure using many pr- tical procedure writers' guidelines. Then what is the real contribution of your work?" I absolutely agree with the latter comment. Yes, we can develop a good pro- dure with the support of many practical and excellent guidelines.

Towards Estimating Entrainment Fraction for Dust Layers closely examines the factors that can affect the assessment of a dust hazard, and outlines a new strawman method designed to help practitioners estimate the fraction of the dust accumulations that can become airborne. This book also aims to provide aid in the removal of aerodynamic disturbances of dust particles or agglomerates from layers or piles of cohesive and non-cohesive dusts. Towards Estimating Entrainment Fraction for Dust Layers is designed for practitioners as a reference guide for improving dust hazard assessment. Researchers working in a related field will also find the book valuable.

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 31 The continual effort to improve performance in business processes attracts 4 increasing attention in research and industry alike. The impact of design 5 development performance on the overall business positions this area as an 6 important performance improvement opportunity. However, design devel- 7 opment is characterised by novelty, uniqueness and non-repeatability, which 8 provides particular challenges in de?ning, measuring and managing its 9 performance to achieve improvement. 2011 This book explores the support provided by both general research in busi- 1 ness process performance and design research for supporting performance 2 improvement in design development. The nature of design development in industrial practice is further revealed, and requirements for its modelling and 3 analysis to achieve improvement are highlighted. 4 A methodology for the modelling and analysis of performance in design 5 development that encapsulates a formalism of performance and an approach 6 for its analysis is established. The formalism is composed of three models, 7 which capture the nature of design development performance and support its 8 2 measurement and management. The E model formalises and relates the key 9 3011 elements of performance, i. e. , ef?ciency and effectiveness. The Design Activity 1 Management (DAM) model distinguishes design and design management 2 activities in terms of the knowledge processed, while the Performance 3 Measurement and Management (PMM) model describes how these activities 4 relate within a process of measuring and managing performance.

In 1980, I received a grant from Aoyama-gakuin university to come to the United States to assist American Industry improve the quality of their products. In a small way this was to repay the help the US had given Japan after the war. In the summer of 1980, I visited the AT&T Bell Laboratories Quality Assurance Center, the organization that founded modern quality control. The result of my first summer at AT&T was an experiment with an orthogonal array design of size 18 (OA18) for optimization of an LSI fabrication process. As a measure of quality, the quantity "signal-ta-noise" ratio was to be optimized. Since then, this experi mental approach has been named "robust design" and has attracted the attention of both engineers and statisticians. My colleagues at Bell Laboratories have written several expository articles and a few theoretical papers on robust design from the viewpoint of statistics. Because so many people have asked for copies of these papers, it has been decided to publish them in a book form. This anthology is the result of these efforts. Despite the fact that quality engineering borrows some technical words from traditional design of experiments, the goals of quality engineering are different from those of statistics. For example, suppose there are two vendors. One vendor supplies products whose quality characteristic has a normal distribution with the mean on target (the desired value) and a certain standard deviation.

Engineering Decisions for Life Quality: How Safe is Safe Enough? provides a foundation and a theoretical basis for managing risk to an acceptable level under the real-world constraint of limited resources. The focus is not on risks as such, but on what can be done to maximize the positive outcomes of risk in terms of improvements to the quality of life. The principal focus of Engineering Decisions for Life Quality: How Safe is Safe Enough? is on the development of guidance for establishing rational standards of practice. Standards should meet the requirement of utilizing resources to achieve the maximum net overall benefit to society within society's capacity to commit such resources. The ideas discussed within this book will be of interest to engineers; advanced undergraduate and graduate students; public health officials; and risk specialists.

In many engineering design and optimisation problems, the presence of uncertainty in the data is a central and critical issue. Different fields of engineering use different ways to describe this uncertainty and adopt a variety of techniques to devise designs that are at least partly insensitive or robust to uncertainty.

Probabilistic and Randomized Methods for Design under Uncertainty examines uncertain systems in control engineering and general decision or optimisation problems for which data is not known exactly. Gathering contributions from the world s leading researchers in optimisation and robust control; this book highlights the interactions between these two fields, and focuses on new randomised and probabilistic techniques for solving design problems in the presence of uncertainty:

• Part I describes general theory and solution methodologies for probability-constrained and stochastic optimization problems, including chance-constrained optimisation, stochastic optimization and risk measures;
• Part II focuses on numerical methods for solving randomly perturbed convex programs and semi-infinite optimisation problems by probabilistic techniques such as constraint sampling and scenario-based optimisation;
• Part III details the theory and applications of randomised techniques to the analysis and design of robust control systems.

Probabilistic and Randomized Methods for Design under Uncertainty will be of interest to researchers, academics and postgraduate students in control engineering and operations research as well as professionals working in operations reasearch who are interested in decision-making, optimisation and stochastic modelling."

Topics in Toxicology Toxicology is a science that stands at the intersection of several interests and disciplines. These intersecting forces are by no means all scientific since some are legal and some are commercial. All have valid things to say about the conduct and interpretation of toxicity experiments. The practising toxicologist must bear all these sometimes conflicting forces in mind as he carries out his duties. This is especially true, of course, of the toxicologist in industry. Toxicology is also a field in which contract research particularly flourishes and a number of major contract research companies have established over the years a reputation for contributing usefully to the practice of this skill. These contract research organisations are particu larly favoured to develop an appreciation of the problems of the in dustrial toxicologist, since it is very common for such a company to service the toxicological needs of companies in several sectors of industry producing new chemical compounds, and the contract research company, therefore, is aware of a wider diversiy of problems than probably affects a single toxicologist in one industry."

Ernst G. Frankel This book has its origin in lecture notes developed over several years for use in a course in Systems Reliability f r engineers concerned with the design of physical systems such as civil structures, power plants, and transport systems of all types. Increasing public concern with the reliability of systems for reasons of human safety, environmental protection, and acceptable investment risk limitations has resulted in an increasing interest by engineers in the formal application of reliability theory to engineering design. At the same time there is a demand for more effective approaches to the design of procedures for the operation and use of man made systems, more meaningful assessment of the risks introduced, and use such a system poses both when operating as designed and when operating at below design performance. The purpose of the book is to provide a sound, yet practical, introduction to reliability analysis and risk assessment which can be used by professionals in engineering, planning, management, and economics to improve the design, operation, and risk assessment of systems of interest. The text should be useful for students in many disciplines and is designed for fourth-year undergraduates or first-year graduate students. I would like to acknowledge the help of many of my graduate students who contributed to the development of this book by offering comments and criticism. Similarly, I would like to thank Mrs. Sheila McNary who typed untold drafts of the manuscript, and Mr."