Esiste una cosa chiamata "destino"? o e solo un mito, come quello di Cassandra?

Si fa sempre un po fatica ovvio a pensare che il mito (nella fattispecie quello di Cassandra) racconti fatti realmente accaduti. Infatti "non" sono realmente accaduti.

Ma e difficile che il mito racconti fatti totalmente "impossibili."

Nessuno sa perche, ma il mito verte sempre intorno ad accadimenti che un giorno magari si riveleranno "un po " veri. Non del tutto veri: solo "un po ." Ma veri.

E cosi del resto anche per molte verita scientifiche, presagite nel passato, e verificate in seguito usando la fisica e le altre scienze che, sviluppate, sono poi state capaci di affrontarle.

Ma esiste allora una matematica del destino, qualcosa come il principio di minima azione di Hamilton, che date le condizioni iniziali di un mondo macroscopico determina in maniera univoca lo stato futuro del mondo stesso? Per quanto increduli, la risposta deve essere: si."

This new edition updates Durbin & Koopman's important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions to this second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series. Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations. Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.

Diese erste umfangreiche Sammlung versicherungsoekonomischer UEbungsaufgaben deckt ein breites Themenspektrum ab: u. a. versicherungstechnische Grundlagen, Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit, Theorie von Versicherungsnachfrage und -angebot sowie staatliche Regulierung und Sozialversicherung. Zu allen Aufgaben prasentieren die Autoren umfangreiche Musterloesungen. Das UEbungsbuch ist besonders fur versicherungsoekonomische Lehrveranstaltungen an Universitaten und Fachhochschulen geeignet. Es unterstutzt gezielt die Klausurvorbereitung.

Wirtschaftsinformatik ist heute im Berufsleben fur alle Studierenden und alle Fach - und Fuhrungskrafte wichtig. AEhnlich wie Kenntnisse der englischen Sprache ist Wissen in diesem Bereich unerlasslich, wenn man im Beruf erfolgreich sein will. Ein Thema, dem sich Manager nicht entziehen koennen, weil es eine gestalterische Aufgabe von zentraler Bedeutung ist.

Dieses Lehr- und Ubungsbuch richtet sich an alle Studierenden, die das Fach Statistik im Studienplan haben. Es umfasst die Themen "deskriptive Statistik," "Kombinatorik und Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung" sowie "induktive Statistik." Es hilft dabei, Prufungen bestmoglichst zu bestehen. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, werden die wichtigsten Formeln moglichst unkompliziert vorgestellt und an Hand ausfuhrlicher Beispiele erlautert. Rund 100 Ubungsaufgaben mit unterschiedlichem Schwierigkeitsgrad bieten die Moglichkeit, erworbenes Wissen anzuwenden und den Kenntnisstand zu uberprufen. Fur alle Aufgaben werden im Anhang nachvollziehbare Schritt-fur-Schritt-Losungen und viele praktische Tipps angeboten"

How can organizations ensure that they can get best value for money in their procurement decisions? How can they stimulate innovations from their dedicated suppliers? With contributions from leading academics and professionals, this 2006 handbook offers expert guidance on the fundamental aspects of successful procurement design and management in firms, public administrations, and international institutions. The issues addressed include the management of dynamic procurement; the handling of procurement risk; the architecture of purchasing systems; the structure of incentives in procurement contracts; methods to increase suppliers' participation in procurement contests and e-procurement platforms; how to minimize the risk of collusion and of corruption; pricing and reputation mechanisms in e-procurement platforms; and how procurement can enhance innovation. Inspired by frontier research, it provides practical recommendations to managers, engineers and lawyers engaged in private and public procurement design.

This volume provides a general framework for a macroeconomic theory of income distribution and wealth distribution and accumulation. The book is divided into two parts. In the first the author surveys the sets of literature on the subject and relates them to each other. In the second part he makes his own contribution by presenting a new model which uses both neo-classical and post-Keynesian analytical tools. The author focuses on the laws which regulate the behavior of individuals and social groups within a given institutional set-up, and in particular those which regulate the accumulation of inter-generational wealth and life-cycle savings of families or dynasties, both in a deterministic and stochastic context. The theoretical issue of savings accumulation is reconsidered, alongside income distribution, and profit determination by concentrating on the historical reasons that are at the basis of "class distinction," as well as "generation distinction," in modern economic analysis.

Anhand vieler Praxisbeispiele aus den Wirtschaftswissenschaften bietet dieses Buch einen praktischen Einstieg in die Lineare Optimierung. Dabei werden dem Leser insbesondere die zugrunde liegenden Ideen nahe vermittelt. Zu den zahlreichen Aufgaben werden ausfuhrliche Musterlosungen angeboten. Daruber hinaus helfen Ihnen die Beispielklausuren bei der gezielten Vorbereitung auf Klausuren."

Software-as-a-Service ist eines der meistdiskutierten Themen im IT-Umfeld. Was verbirgt sich hinter dem Hype? Wo liegen Chancen und Risiken fur Unternehmen und Berater? Antworten auf diese Fragen geben namhafte Autoren aus Wissenschaft und Praxis.

Unternehmen koennen notwendige Entwicklungsarbeiten an Anwendungssystemen durch eigene Mitarbeiter erbringen oder externe Dienstleister beauftragen (Make or Buy). Bjoern Brandt entwickelt eine Systematik von Make-or-Buy-Entscheidungen und stellt dar, welche Kriterien bei der Partnerwahl zugrunde liegen.

Diese Einfuhrung beschreibt erstmals klassische Regressionsansatze und moderne nicht- und semiparametrische Methoden in einer integrierten, einheitlichen und anwendungsorientierten Form. Die Darstellung wendet sich an Studierende der Statistik in Wahl- und Hauptfach sowie an empirisch-statistisch und interdisziplinar arbeitende Wissenschaftler und Praktiker, zum Beispiel in Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Bioinformatik, Biostatistik, OEkonometrie und Epidemiologie. Die praktische Anwendung der vorgestellten Konzepte und Methoden wird anhand ausfuhrlich vorgestellter Fallstudien demonstriert, um Lesern die Analyse eigener Fragestellungen zu ermoeglichen.

Das Buch bietet eine Einfuhrung in die wichtigsten Methoden der beschreibenden Statistik und ausgewahlte Kapitel der Wirtschaftsstatistik, insbesondere in die Indexzahlen und die Messung von Konzentration und Disparitat. Die Darstellung zielt auf klare Begriffe, nachvollziehbare Verfahren und Motivation aus den Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Sie enthalt zahlreiche durchgerechnete Beispiele, zum Teil mit aktuellen realen Wirtschaftsdaten. Anleitungen zur Datenanalyse am Computer mit Excel(r) erganzen den Text. Das Lehrbuch richtet sich an Studierende insbesondere der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften im Bachelorstudium. Es ist auch zum Selbststudium geeignet."

This is a concise and elementary introduction to stochastic control and mathematical modelling. This book is designed for researchers in stochastic control theory studying its application in mathematical economics and those in economics who are interested in mathematical theory in control. It is also a good guide for graduate students studying applied mathematics, mathematical economics, and non-linear PDE theory. Contents include the basics of analysis and probability, the theory of stochastic differential equations, variational problems, problems in optimal consumption and in optimal stopping, optimal pollution control, and solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with boundary conditions. Major mathematical prerequisites are contained in the preliminary chapters or in the appendix so that readers can proceed without referring to other materials.

Negli ultimi dieci anni ca (TM)A] stata una (TM)ampia fase della (TM)innovazione tecnologica che ha portato alla diffusione di grandi quantitA di dati in diversi campi applicativi. Le aziende in primo luogo hanno a disposizione moltissimi elementi informativi riguardanti i loro clienti, ma anche nella medicina, nella genetica, nella biologia, e in molti altri ambienti applicativi sono ora a disposizioni grandi masse di dati. Tale realtA porta con sA(c) la necessitA di sviluppare e conoscere nuovi strumenti di analisi statistica.

In questo contesto molti strumenti e metodi di analisi hanno origini diverse, in particolare dalla statistica e dal machine learning, ma condividono molti aspetti. Questo libro descrive i concetti piA importanti di queste aree in una (TM)impostazione unificata. Seppure la (TM)approccio sia statistico, la (TM)enfasi A] sui concetti piuttosto che sulla formulazione matematica.

Vengono presentati molti esempi corredati da una (TM)ampia varietA di illustrazioni grafiche. Il libro dovrebbe quindi costituire un utile strumento per gli statistici e per chiunque altro A] interessato al data mining sia nel mondo aziendale che in quello scientifico.

Ausgehend von den Grundbegriffen der Statistik beschreiben die Autoren die Herangehensweise an die Datenerfassung und die verschiedenen Darstellungsmoglichkeiten der erfassten Daten. Die Methoden der Datenanalyse und die damit verbundene Komprimierung von Informationen werden anhand der statistischen Masszahlen, der Verhaltnis- und Indexzahlen und der Zeitreihenanalyse erlautert. Zahlreiche Beispiele und Fragen mit Musterlosungen machen die Zusammenhange klar. Weitere Aufgaben mit ausfuhrlichen Losungen unterstutzen bei der Umsetzung des Wissens.
Fur die 8. Auflage wurde der aktuelle Verbraucherpreisindex angepasst.
Erganzend zu dieser deskriptiven Statistik liegt von den Autoren auch ein Werk zur induktiven Statistik mit dem Titel "Grundlagen statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeiten" vor.
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Running Regressions introduces first-year social science undergraduates, particularly those studying economics and business, to the practical aspects of simple regression analysis, without adopting an esoteric, mathematical approach. It shows that statistical analysis can be simultaneously straightforward, useful and interesting, and can deal with topical, real-world issues. Each chapter introduces an economic theory or idea by relating it to an issue of topical interest, and explains how data and econometric analysis can be used to test it. The book can be used as a self-standing text or to supplement conventional econometric texts. It is also ideally suited as a guide to essays and project work.

Running Regressions introduces first-year social science undergraduates, particularly those studying economics and business, to the practical aspects of simple regression analysis, without adopting an esoteric, mathematical approach. It shows that statistical analysis can be simultaneously straightforward, useful and interesting, and can deal with topical, real-world issues. Each chapter introduces an economic theory or idea by relating it to an issue of topical interest, and explains how data and econometric analysis can be used to test it. The book can be used as a self-standing text or to supplement conventional econometric texts. It is also ideally suited as a guide to essays and project work.

In diesem Buch werden die methodischen Grundlagen von Planungs- und Kontrollsystemen sowie von Informationssystemen im engeren Sinn (Fuhrungsinformationssysteme, Management-Informationssysteme, Business-Intelligence-Systeme, Online-Analytical-Processing-Systeme) systematisch und kompakt aufbereitet. Ein deutlicher Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf der Darstellung der Informationsinhalte. Die Autoren vermitteln einen Uberblick zu allen wichtigen betrieblichen Funktionsbereichen sowie zu funktions- und prozessubergreifenden Themen. Zu allen Bereichen finden sich aktuelle Beispiele, etwa zur Balanced-Scorecard-Methodik, zu einem Redaktions-Leitstand fur die Unternehmensfuhrung, zu Systemen zur Integration von Marktforschungs- und Controllingdaten, zur Analyse der Fertigungslogistik oder zum Beschwerdemanagement. Bei der Auswahl der Praxisbeispiele berucksichtigen die Autoren die starke Verbreitung von SAP-Systemen.
Fur die 10. Auflage wurden die Praxisbeispiele sowie die Kapitel zur Gestaltung von Berichten und zur Kategorisierung der typischen Fuhrungsinformationen auf den neuesten Stand gebracht.

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Statistical designs, sample surveys and evaluation designs are fundamental tools for solving queries related to population parameters and the effects of public programs and policies. This book explores the concepts of effective sampling and evaluation techniques in a cohesive and concise manner. Sampling design techniques, including simple random sampling, stratified sampling, systematic sampling and cluster sampling, are presented in detail. These techniques play a vital role when choosing an appropriate sample survey design. The concepts of multistage design, non-sampling errors and evaluation techniques including before-after design, one-time treatment and control design are discussed extensively. The book focuses on different methods of estimation, including multiple regression analysis and logistic regression. It covers the issue of bias in a design, the source of such bias and ways to overcome it. Clear guidelines with remedial measures are outlined to facilitate choosing a suitable sampling design.

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Il libro Demand Planning analizza metodi quantitativi, modelli matematici e processi aziendali per la gestione e la pianificazione della domanda commerciale delle aziende, relativa ai prodotti ed ai servizi realizzati. Fattori competitivi quali la proliferazione della gamma di prodotti, la (TM)introduzione continua di nuovi prodotti presso nuovi mercati o canali distributivi, il limitato ciclo di vita dei prodotti, la progettazione di attivitA promozionali rivolte a fidelizzare i clienti e ad accrescere la quota di mercato aziendale, indicano il processo di Demand Planning come cruciale e strategico per la competitivitA delle aziende. La stima accurata e precisa della futura domanda commerciale, definita sotto forma di piano previsionale, consente alla (TM)azienda di definire in modo ottimale piani finanziari, piani strategici, piani operativi di produzione, distribuzione ed approvvigionamento dei materiali. Il libro affronta la complessitA inerente la progettazione, la gestione e la manutenzione di un sistema di Demand Planning, attraverso le fasi di conduzione dei processi ad esso afferenti. Dopo aver inquadrato la disciplina del Demand Planning nella (TM)ambito del contesto dei sistemi produttivi e logistici, noti come Supply Chain Management, vengono esplicitate le tre macrofasi in cui il Demand Planning A] articolato: pre-forecasting, forecasting e post-forecasting, mediante la (TM)analisi approfondita delle metodologie e dei modelli matematici di riferimento (Business Intelligence e Data Mining per la (TM)analisi dei dati storici relativi alle vendite, Demand Forecasting per la generazione dei piano previsionale delle vendite, metodologie di Qualitative Forecasting e di analisicollaborativa del piano previsionale a" quali ad esempio gestione delle promozioni, degli assortimenti, introduzione di nuovi prodotti a" per la modifica della baseline statistica di forecast). Vengono da ultimo illustrate applicazioni di Demand Planning, relative alla progettazione ed al dimensionamento delle reti logistiche di fornitura (Supply Chain Networks), alla preparazione del piano principale di produzione e di distribuzione dei prodotti finiti (Supply Chain Planning), al dimensionamento ottimale delle scorte alla (TM)interno della filiera logistica (Inventory Planning).