Originally published in 2005, Weather Derivative Valuation covers all the meteorological, statistical, financial and mathematical issues that arise in the pricing and risk management of weather derivatives. There are chapters on meteorological data and data cleaning, the modelling and pricing of single weather derivatives, the modelling and valuation of portfolios, the use of weather and seasonal forecasts in the pricing of weather derivatives, arbitrage pricing for weather derivatives, risk management, and the modelling of temperature, wind and precipitation. Specific issues covered in detail include the analysis of uncertainty in weather derivative pricing, time-series modelling of daily temperatures, the creation and use of probabilistic meteorological forecasts and the derivation of the weather derivative version of the Black-Scholes equation of mathematical finance. Written by consultants who work within the weather derivative industry, this book is packed with practical information and theoretical insight into the world of weather derivative pricing.

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics.

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

This is a comprehensive source of official statistics for the regions and countries of the UK.It is an official publication of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), therefore providing the most authoritative collection of statistics available. It is updated annually, the type and format of the information constantly evolves to take account of new or revised material and reflects current priorities and initiatives. It contains a wide range of demographic, social, industrial and economic statistics which provide insight into aspects of life within all UK regions. Data is presented clearly in combination of tables, maps and charts providing the ideal tool for researching UK regions.Regional Trends is a comprehensive source of official statistics for the regions and countries of the UK. This edition includes a wide range of demographic, social, industrial and economic statistics, covering aspects of life within all areas of the UK. The data are presented clearly in a combination of tables, maps and charts.

This must-have manual provides detailed solutions to all of the 300 exercises in Dickson, Hardy and Waters' Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks, 3 edition. This groundbreaking text on the modern mathematics of life insurance is required reading for the Society of Actuaries' (SOA) LTAM Exam. The new edition treats a wide range of newer insurance contracts such as critical illness and long-term care insurance; pension valuation material has been expanded; and two new chapters have been added on developing models from mortality data and on changing mortality. Beyond professional examinations, the textbook and solutions manual offer readers the opportunity to develop insight and understanding through guided hands-on work, and also offer practical advice for solving problems using straightforward, intuitive numerical methods. Companion Excel spreadsheets illustrating these techniques are available for free download.

Do economics and statistics succeed in explaining human social behaviour? To answer this question. Leland Gerson Neuberg studies some pioneering controlled social experiments. Starting in the late 1960s, economists and statisticians sought to improve social policy formation with random assignment experiments such as those that provided income guarantees in the form of a negative income tax. This book explores anomalies in the conceptual basis of such experiments and in the foundations of statistics and economics more generally. Scientific inquiry always faces certain philosophical problems. Controlled experiments of human social behaviour, however, cannot avoid some methodological difficulties not evident in physical science experiments. Drawing upon several examples, the author argues that methodological anomalies prevent microeconomics and statistics from explaining human social behaviour as coherently as the physical sciences explain nature. He concludes that controlled social experiments are a frequently overrated tool for social policy improvement.

Price and quantity indices are important, much-used measuring instruments, and it is therefore necessary to have a good understanding of their properties. When it was published, this book is the first comprehensive text on index number theory since Irving Fisher's 1922 The Making of Index Numbers. The book covers intertemporal and interspatial comparisons; ratio- and difference-type measures; discrete and continuous time environments; and upper- and lower-level indices. Guided by economic insights, this book develops the instrumental or axiomatic approach. There is no role for behavioural assumptions. In addition to subject matter chapters, two entire chapters are devoted to the rich history of the subject.

Employers Can Reduce Their Employees' Health Care Costs by Thinking Out of The BoxEmployee health care costs have skyrocketed, especially for small business owners. But employers have options that medical entrepreneurs have crafted to provide all businesses with plans to improve their employees' wellness and reduce their costs. Thus, the cost of employee health care benefits can be reduced markedly by choosing one of numerous alternatives to traditional indemnity policies. The Finance of Health Care provides business decision makers with the information they need to match the optimal health care plan with the culture of their workforce. This book is a must guide for corporate executives and entrepreneurs who want to attract-and keep--the best employees in our competitive economy.

This laboratory manual is intended for business analysts who wish to increase their skills in the use of statistical analysis to support business decisions. Most of the case studies use Excel,today's most common analysis tool. They range from the most basic descriptive analytical techniques to more advanced techniques such as linear regression and forecasting. Advanced projects cover inferential statistics for continuous variables (t-Test) and categorical variables (chi-square), as well as A/B testing. The manual ends with techniques to deal with the analysis of text data and tools to manage the analysis of large data sets (Big Data) using Excel. Includes companion files with solution spreadsheets, sample files, data sets, etc. from the book. Features: Teaches the statistical analysis skills needed to support business decisions Provides projects ranging from the most basic descriptive analytical techniques to more advanced techniques such as linear regression, forecasting, inferential statistics, and analyzing big data sets Includes companion files with solution spreadsheets, sample files, data sets, etc. used in the book's case studies

This volume collects seven of Marc Nerlove's previously published, classic essays on panel data econometrics written over the past thirty-five years, together with a cogent essay on the history of the subject, which began with George Biddell Airey's monograph published in 1861. Since Professor Nerlove's 1966 Econometrica paper with Pietro Balestra, panel data and methods of econometric analysis appropriate to such data have become increasingly important in the discipline. The principal factors in the research environment affecting the future course of panel data econometrics are the phenomenal growth in the computational power available to the individual researcher at his or her desktop and the ready availability of data sets, both large and small, via the Internet. The best way to formulate statistical models for inference is motivated and shaped by substantive problems and understanding of the processes generating the data at hand to resolve them. The essays illustrate both the role of the substantive context in shaping appropriate methods of inference and the increasing importance of computer-intensive methods.

Mathematical models in the social sciences have become increasingly sophisticated and widespread in the last decade. This period has also seen many critiques, most lamenting the sacrifices incurred in pursuit of mathematical rigor. If, as critics argue, our ability to understand the world has not improved during the mathematization of the social sciences, we might want to adopt a different paradigm. This book examines the three main fields of mathematical modeling - game theory, statistics, and computational methods - and proposes a new framework for modeling. Unlike previous treatments which view each field separately, the treatment provides a framework that spans and incorporates the different methodological approaches. The goal is to arrive at a new vision of modeling that allows researchers to solve more complex problems in the social sciences. Additionally, a special emphasis is placed upon the role of computational modeling in the social sciences.

Mathematical models in the social sciences have become increasingly sophisticated and widespread in the last decade. This period has also seen many critiques, most lamenting the sacrifices incurred in pursuit of mathematical rigor. If, as critics argue, our ability to understand the world has not improved during the mathematization of the social sciences, we might want to adopt a different paradigm. This book examines the three main fields of mathematical modeling - game theory, statistics, and computational methods - and proposes a new framework for modeling. Unlike previous treatments which view each field separately, the treatment provides a framework that spans and incorporates the different methodological approaches. The goal is to arrive at a new vision of modeling that allows researchers to solve more complex problems in the social sciences. Additionally, a special emphasis is placed upon the role of computational modeling in the social sciences.

Das erfolgreiche Ubungsbuch ermoglicht es, anhand von praktischen Aufgabenstellungen eine Vielzahl von Methoden der induktiven (schliessenden) Statistik kennenzulernen und zu vertiefen. Die ausfuhrlichen Losungsteile sind so gehalten, dass kein weiteres Buch zu Hilfe genommen werden muss. Aus dem Inhalt: Zufallsereignisse und Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeit, Unabhangigkeit, Bayessche Formel und Zuverlassigkeit von Systemen. Zufallsvariablen und Verteilungen. Spezielle Verteilungen und Grenzwertsatze. Punktschatzer, Konfidenz- und Prognoseintervalle. Parametrische Tests im Einstichprobenfall. Anpassungstests und graphische Verfahren zur Uberprufung einer Verteilungsannahme. Parametrische Vergleiche im Zweistichprobenfall. Nichtparametrische, verteilungsfreie Vergleiche in Ein- und Zweistichprobenfall. Abhangigkeitsanalyse, Korrelation und Assoziation. Regressionsanalyse. Kontingenztafelanalyse. Stichprobenverfahren. Klausuraufgaben und Losungen."

This book is intended for use in a rigorous introductory PhD level course in econometrics, or in a field course in econometric theory. It covers the measure-theoretical foundation of probability theory, the multivariate normal distribution with its application to classical linear regression analysis, various laws of large numbers, central limit theorems and related results for independent random variables as well as for stationary time series, with applications to asymptotic inference of M-estimators, and maximum likelihood theory. Some chapters have their own appendices containing the more advanced topics and/or difficult proofs. Moreover, there are three appendices with material that is supposed to be known. Appendix I contains a comprehensive review of linear algebra, including all the proofs. Appendix II reviews a variety of mathematical topics and concepts that are used throughout the main text, and Appendix III reviews complex analysis. Therefore, this book is uniquely self-contained.

This book has two components: stochastic dynamics and stochastic random combinatorial analysis. The first discusses evolving patterns of interactions of a large but finite number of agents of several types. Changes of agent types or their choices or decisions over time are formulated as jump Markov processes with suitably specified transition rates: optimisations by agents make these rates generally endogenous. Probabilistic equilibrium selection rules are also discussed, together with the distributions of relative sizes of the bases of attraction. As the number of agents approaches infinity, we recover deterministic macroeconomic relations of more conventional economic models. The second component analyses how agents form clusters of various sizes. This has applications for discussing sizes or shares of markets by various agents which involve some combinatorial analysis patterned after the population genetics literature. These are shown to be relevant to distributions of returns to assets, volatility of returns, and power laws.

Economic and financial time series feature important seasonal fluctuations. Despite their regular and predictable patterns over the year, month or week, they pose many challenges to economists and econometricians. This book provides a thorough review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal time series. It is designed for an audience of specialists in economic time series analysis and advanced graduate students. It is the most comprehensive and balanced treatment of the subject since the mid-1980s.

Maintaining the innovation capabilities of firms, employees and institutions is a key component for the generation of sustainable growth, employment, and high income in industrial societies. Gaining insights into the German innovation system and the institutional framework is as important to policy making as is data on the endowment of the German economy with factors fostering innovation and their recent development. Germany's Federal Ministry of Education and Research has repeatedly commissioned reports on the competitive strength of the German innovation system since the mid-eighties. The considerable attention that the public and the political, administrative and economic actors have paid to these reports in the past few years proves the strong interest in the assessment of and indicators for the dynamics behind innovation activities. The present study closely follows the pattern of those carried out before. It has been extended, however, to include an extensive discussion on indicators for technological performance and an outline of the key features of the German innovation system.

This edition sets out recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets and discusses the region's economic outlook, the risk of another taper tantrum, and price differences between labeled and unlabeled green bonds. Emerging East Asia's local currency (LCY) bond markets expanded to an aggregate USD21.7 trillion at the end of September 2021, posting growth of 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter. LCY bond issuance rose 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD2.4 trillion in Q3 2021. Sustainable bond markets in ASEAN+3 also continued to expand to reach a size of USD388.7 billion at the end of September.

This book analyzes the institutional underpinnings of East Asia's dynamic growth by exploring the interplay between governance and flexibility. As the challenges of promoting and sustaining economic growth become ever more complex, firms in both advanced and industrializing countries face constant pressures for change from markets and technology. Globalization, heightened competition, and shorter product cycles mean that markets are increasingly volatile and fragmented. To contend with demands for higher quality, quicker delivery, and cost efficiencies, firms must enhance their capability to innovate and diversify. Achieving this flexibility, in turn, often requires new forms of governance-arrangements that facilitate the exchange of resources among diverse yet interdependent economic actors. Moving beyond the literature's emphasis on developed economies, this volume emphasizes the relevance of the links between governance and flexibility for understanding East Asia's explosive economic growth over the past quarter century. In case studies that encompass a variety of key industrial sectors and countries, the contributors emphasize the importance of network patterns of governance for facilitating flexibility in firms throughout the region. Their analyses illuminate both the strengths and limitations of recent growth strategies and offer insights into prospects for continued expansion in the wake of the East Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s. Contributions by: Richard P. Appelbaum, Lu-lin Cheng, Stephen W. K. Chiu, Frederic C. Deyo, Richard F. Doner, Dieter Ernst, Eric Hershberg, Tai Lok Lui, Rajah Rasiah, David A. Smith, and Poh-Kam Wong.

In a world where we are constantly being asked to make decisions based on incomplete information, facility with basic probability is an essential skill. This book provides a solid foundation in basic probability theory designed for intellectually curious readers and those new to the subject. Through its conversational tone and careful pacing of mathematical development, the book balances a charming style with informative discussion. This text will immerse the reader in a mathematical view of the world, giving them a glimpse into what attracts mathematicians to the subject in the first place. Rather than simply writing out and memorizing formulas, the reader will come out with an understanding of what those formulas mean, and how and when to use them. Readers will also encounter settings where probabilistic reasoning does not apply or where intuition can be misleading. This book establishes simple principles of counting collections and sequences of alternatives, and elaborates on these techniques to solve real world problems both inside and outside the casino. Pair this book with the HarvardX online course for great videos and interactive learning: https://harvardx.link/fat-chance.

Many years of teaching led Geoff Renshaw to develop Maths for Economics as a resource which builds your self-confidence in maths by using a gradual learning gradient and constantly reinforcing learning with examples and exercises. Some students embarking on this module feel that they have lost their confidence in maths, or perhaps never had any in the first place. The author has designed the book so that whether you have a maths A level, GCSE, or perhaps feel that you need to go back over the very basics, knowledge is built up in small steps, not big jumps. Once you are confident that you have firmly grasped the foundations, this book will help you to make the progression beyond the mechanical exercises and into the development of a maths tool-kit for the analysis of economic and business problems. This is a skill which will prove valuable for your degree and for your future employers. The online resource centre contains the following resources: For Students: Ask the author forum Excel tutorial Maple tutorial Further exercises Answers to further questions Expanded solutions to progress exercises For Lecturers (password protected): Test exercises Graphs from the book Answers to test exercises PowerPoint presentations Instructor manual

The important data of economics are in the form of time series; therefore, the statistical methods used will have to be those designed for time series data. New methods for analyzing series containing no trends have been developed by communication engineering, and much recent research has been devoted to adapting and extending these methods so that they will be suitable for use with economic series. This book presents the important results of this research and further advances the application of the recently developed Theory of Spectra to economics. In particular, Professor Hatanaka demonstrates the new technique in treating two problems-business cycle indicators, and the acceleration principle existing in department store data. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

A beautiful, compelling and eye-opening guide to the way we live in Britain today. ______________ How much more do we drink than we should? Why do immigrants come here? How have house prices changed in the past decade? What do we spend our money on? Britain by Numbers answers all these questions and more, vividly bringing our nation to life in new and unexpected ways by showing who lives here, where we work, who we marry, what crimes we commit and much else besides. Beautifully designed and illustrated throughout, it takes the reader on a fascinating journey up and down the land, enriching their understanding of a complex - and contradictory - country.

This Volume of "Advances in Econometrics" contains a selection of papers presented initially at the 7th Annual Advances in Econometrics Conference held on the LSU campus in Baton Rouge, Louisiana during November 14-16, 2008. The theme of the conference was 'Nonparametric Econometric Methods', and the papers selected for inclusion in this Volume span a range of nonparametric techniques including kernel smoothing, empirical copulas, series estimators, and smoothing splines along with a variety of semiparametric methods. The papers in this Volume cover topics of interest to those who wish to familiarize themselves with current nonparametric methodology. Many papers also identify areas deserving of future attention. There exist survey papers devoted to recent developments in nonparametric nance, constrained nonparametric regression, miparametric/nonparametric environmental econometrics and nonparametric models with non-stationary data. There exist theoretical papers dealing with novel approaches for partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects, xed effects semiparametric panel data models, functional coefficient models with time series data, exponential series estimators of empirical copulas, estimation of multivariate CDFs and bias-reduction methods for density estimation. There also exist a number of applications that analyze returns to education, the evolution of income and life expectancy, the role of governance in growth, farm production, city size and unemployment rates, derivative pricing, and environmental pollution and economic growth. In short, this Volume contains a range of theoretical developments, surveys, and applications that would be of interest to those who wish to keep abreast of some of the most important current developments in the field of nonparametric estimation.