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Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, "single-valued" outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called `calibration'); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.
When natural disasters and emergencies strike, the short- and long-term effects of these events on first responders-the very people society relies upon in the midst of a catastrophe-are often overlooked. Policing in Natural Disasters provides a comprehensive analysis of the major challenges faced by law enforcement officers during extreme crisis events. Terri Adams and Leigh Anderson examine the dilemmas police departments face as well as the impact of the disasters on the professional and personal lives of the officers. Case studies explore the response and recovery phases of emergencies including Hurricane Katrina, the 2010 earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Santiago, Chile, and the Superstorm Tornado Outbreak in 2011. Policing in Natural Disasters was inspired by the personal accounts of triumph and tragedy shared by first responders. It provides an understanding of first-responder behaviors during disasters, as well as the preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery policy implications for first responders and emergency managers. As first responders must frequently cope with stress, uncertainty, and threats to their health and safety during high-consequence events, Adams and Anderson provide lessons from first-hand experiences of police officers that can lead to better management in times of crisis.
A lethal mix of natural disaster, dangerously flawed construction, and reckless human actions devastated San Francisco in 1906 and New Orleans in 2005. Eighty percent of the built environments of both cities were destroyed in the catastrophes, and the poor, the elderly, and the medically infirm were disproportionately among the thousands who perished. These striking similarities in the impacts of cataclysms separated by a century impelled Steve Kroll-Smith to look for commonalities in how the cities recovered from disaster. In Recovering Inequality, he builds a convincing case that disaster recovery and the reestablishment of social and economic inequality are inseparable. Kroll-Smith demonstrates that disaster and recovery in New Orleans and San Francisco followed a similar pattern. In the immediate aftermath of the flooding and the firestorm, social boundaries were disordered and the communities came together in expressions of unity and support. But these were quickly replaced by other narratives and actions, including the depiction of the poor as looters, uneven access to disaster assistance, and successful efforts by the powerful to take valuable urban real estate from vulnerable people. Kroll-Smith concludes that inexorable market forces ensured that recovery efforts in both cities would reestablish the patterns of inequality that existed before the catastrophes. The major difference he finds between the cities is that, from a market standpoint, New Orleans was expendable, while San Francisco rose from the ashes because it was a hub of commerce.
The Nile is arguably the most famous river in the world. For millennia, the search for its source defeated emperors and explorers. Yet the search for its source also contained a religious quest - a search for the origin of its divine and life-giving waters. Terje Oestigaard reveals how the beliefs associated with the river have played a key role in the cultural development and make-up of the societies and civilizations associated with it. Drawing upon his personal experience and fieldwork in Africa, including details of rites and ceremonies now fast disappearing, the author brings out in rich detail the religious and spiritual meanings attached to the life-giving waters by those whose lives are so bound to the river. Part religious quest, part exploration narrative, the author shows how this mighty river is a powerful source for a greater understanding of human nature, society and religion.
This book aims to serve as an essential reference to facilitate civil engineers involved in the design of new conventional (ordinary) reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings regulatedby the current European EC8 (EN 1998-1:2004) and EC2 (EN 1992-1-1:2004) codesof practice. The book provides unique step-by-step flowcharts which take the readerthrough all the required operations, calculations, and verification checks prescribed bythe EC8 provisions. These flowcharts are complemented by comprehensive discussionsand practical explanatory comments on critical aspects of the EC8 code-regulatedprocedure for the earthquake resistant design of R/C buildings. Further, detailedanalysis and design examples of typical multi-storey three-dimensional R/C buildingsare included to illustrate the required steps for achieving designs of real-life structures which comply with the current EC8 provisions. These examples can be readily used as verification tutorials to check the reliability of custom-made computer programs and of commercial Finite Element software developed/used for the design of earthquakeresistant R/C buildings complying with the EC8 (EN 1998-1:2004) code.This book will be of interest to practitioners working in consulting and designingengineering companies and to advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level civilengineering students attending courses and curricula in the earthquake resistant designof structures and/or undertaking pertinent design projects.
This book calls for the progressive creation of supra-national institutions intended to protect life on Earth against natural threats, be these terrestrial (pandemics, super-volcanoes, major earthquakes.) or celestial (comets, asteroids, meteor storms). The protection proffered would need to be pre-emptive though also responsive, reducing the number of adverse events but also their specific consequences. Rancid though the world scene currently looks, this may actually be a good time to look towards a planetary security programme that can build up over a century or more. It would need special international institutions that are sufficiently integrated to cope with the celestial and terrestrial contingencies anticipated yet not so much a class apart as to be a law unto themselves, a military regime able to ride roughshod over general world opinion. Such an holistic approach to planetary security might prove to be a definitive substitute for war between nations. Professor Brown comes to such questions from a broad career background. His lead qualifications are a Masters degree from Oxford in Modern History and a Doctorate of Science from Birmingham (UK) in Applied Geophysics. He has been a naval meteorologist; staff college instructor; part-time but pro-active as a defence correspondent for several of the West's leading journals; and political consultant. From 1980 to 1986, he was Chairman of the Council for Arms Control. From 1993 to 1997 he worked half-time in the Sensors and Electronic Systems directorate of Britain's Ministry of Defence. This was as the Academic Consultant in a small task force specifically created to advise the government of the day apropos what British policy to Strategic Ballistic Missile Defence should be. A declassified rendering of his 90,000-word report (published by Mansfield College, Oxford, in 1998) argued firmly against our going down this path. It could lead to a catastrophic arms race.
This book highlights studies of differentiation problems of natural geosystems because of anthropogenic impact. The systematic methodology of comprehensive ecological assessment of anthropogenic impact on natural geosystems and their differentiations on the level of technogenic conditionality for ensuring rational environmental management and environmental protection are discussed. The practical importance of this book lies in the evidence-based recommendations and actions for conservation and quality management of the environment in order to decrease the degree of anthropogenic impact and in prevention of degradation processes. The book is useful to the researchers, industrial, scientific, and other organizations in establishing the purpose of the problem and solution to environmental protection and rational environmental management.
Many countries are increasingly threatened by major landslide disasters and fatalities due to extreme weather events which have major implications for public safety and the sustainability of infrastructure and the built environment. A further increase in such a trend could come from climate change. This book helps to fill in the gap due to the fact that landslide hazards are commonly not covered under the policy debate on climate change. The book highlights the importance of raising awareness to the challenges of landslide hazards due to climate impact. It provides a holistic frame for understanding the key issues and new tools that could be used to assess and manage the landslide risks. The book gathers contributions from 21 countries and regions in the form of national reports or summaries with respect to four key aspects: a) the methods used for evaluating changing weather and changing landslide patterns; b) the changing weather patterns; c) the changing landslide patterns and hazard scenarios; d) the applications to risk management and the formulation of adaptation measures. Recommendations are made for enhanced preparedness and resilience. Improved crisis management and areas for future work are suggested.
This book explores the planning knowledge that can be gleaned from the experiences of the urban poor, a group frequently affected by floods. Further, it examines the relationship between lifeworld analysis and adaptation planning through the sociology of knowledge, which plays a significant part in determining the adaptation pathway of the urban poor. The book brings together empirical data to translate self-reflective planning theory into the practical context, examines community planning, and enriches the discourse on urban adaptation. Lastly, it provides an adaptation-planning model that can benefit academics, practitioners and policymakers who wish to provide more socially accepted plans.
Tsunami science has evolved significantly since the occurrence of two of the most destructive natural disasters in recent times: The 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunami and the 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Great East Japan) tsunami. As a result, scientists from around the world have come together to engage in tsunami research. Significant progress has been achieved in all aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics, detection, generation, and probability of occurrence. The papers presented in this second of three topical volumes of Pure and Applied Geophysics reflect the current state of tsunami science, including the further examination of the 2011 Tohoku event and its aftershocks, tsunami hydrodynamic and numerical modeling, hazard assessments and warning. In addition to underwater earthquakes, some other tsunamigenic phenomena are also discussed. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami science, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation. The volume is of interest to scientists and practitioners involved in all aspects of tsunamis from source processes to coastal impacts. Postgraduate students in geophysics, oceanography and coastal engineering - as well as students in the broader geosciences, civil and environmental engineering - will also find the book to be a valuable resource, as it combines recent case studies with advances in tsunami science and natural hazards mitigation.
Following on from her epic photographical journey behind the Iron Curtain in Soviet Ghosts The Soviet Union Abandoned: A Communist Empire in Decay Rebecca Bathory undertakes an emotional and thought provoking journey to Fukushima. As one of the first photographers to be granted access to the site, Bathory now presents never-before-seen images which provide a unique and moving meditation on human failure seen through the lens of an accomplished artist. Bathory's images take you behind the scenes of the ghost town that is Fukushima, at turns heartbreaking and devastating. These photographs ask the question - what next for a nuclear future?
This book elucidates sedimentation processes at work in the Rupnarayan River, with particular focus on the environment of sediment deposition under a tidal system. It addresses the various complexities arising from the interactions between riverine and marine processes, as well as the seasonal fluctuations in available and critical shear stress that lead to sedimentation. Logical explanations of the research findings will help readers understand the mechanisms of sedimentation and both the sources and distributional patterns of sediments in estuarine environments. The book offers a valuable guide and faithful companion for all students and researchers working on fluvial geomorphology and sedimentology, as well as engineers, hydrologists, planners and other authorities interested in sedimentation and associated problems.
London in 1952 was a still recovering from the devastation wrought by World War II: rationing was still in effect, rates of crime and unemployment were high, and the national economy was in shambles. In an effort to repay its massive war debt, the British government was selling its clean-burning coal to America, and Londoners were forced to make do with the cheap brown coal. That winter, as the weather turned bitter, buses, trucks and automobiles, and thousands of coal-burning hearths belched particulate matter into the air. But the smog that descended on December 5th of 1952 was different; it was a sulfurous type of smog that held the city hostage for five long days. Mass transit ground to a halt, criminals roamed the streets, and some 12,000 people, many of them elderly or ill, died. What would later be called the Great Smog of 1952 remains one of the greatest environmental disasters of all time. That same December, there was another killer at large in London. John Reginald Christie murdered at least seven women in his flat in Notting Hill--luring women to his home with the promise of a home remedy for bronchitis, instructing his victims to inhale carbon-monoxide laden coal gas until they passed out. He then raped and strangled them, burying two in the garden, stashing several more in a papered-over kitchen alcove, and his wife of 34 years beneath the floorboards of their parlor. The arrest of the "Beast of Rillington Place" caused a media frenzy; moreover, Christie's role in sending an innocent man to the gallows was the impetus for the abolition of the death penalty in the UK. The smog, meanwhile, was slow to be implicated. Indeed, the British government did their level best to disavow any connection between the death rate and the air quality, blaming the sudden spike in deaths on fictitious flu epidemic. Eventually, however, the media and one crusading Member of Parliament launched a fight that would be the beginning of the global clean air movement. The Clean Air Act of 1956 was a direct result of the Great Smog, and that legislation provided a model for the rest of the world, including the U.S. In a braided narrative that draws on extensive interviews, never-before published material and archival research, Kate Winkler Dawson captivatingly recounts the intersecting stories of the these two killers and their crimes.
This edited book investigates the interrelations of disaster impacts, resilience and security in an urban context. Urban as a term captures megacities, cities, and generally, human settlements, that are characterised by concentration of quantifiable and non-quantifiable subjects, objects and value attributions to them. The scope is to narrow down resilience from an all-encompassing concept to applied ways of scientifically attempting to 'measure' this type of disaster related resilience. 28 chapters in this book reflect opportunities and doubts of the disaster risk science community regarding this 'measurability'. Therefore, examples utilising both quantitative and qualitative approaches are juxtaposed. This book concentrates on features that are distinct characteristics of resilience, how they can be measured and in what sense they are different to vulnerability and risk parameters. Case studies in 11 countries either use a hypothetical pre-event estimation of resilience or are addressing a `revealed resilience' evident and documented after an event. Such information can be helpful to identify benchmarks or margins of impact magnitudes and related recovery times, volumes and qualities of affected populations and infrastructure.
New York. Athens. Boston. Tohoku. Newtown. Oslo. West. Wenzhou.
New Orleans. Dhaka. Moore. Nairobi.
These communities are just a few among the many that have been
hit hard by one of the "wicked problems" of today's world: natural
catastrophe, disease and contagion, systems or social collapse. If
you haven't been directly touched by one of these disruptions
yourself, you are sure to have been affected by them in some way.
They harm people, destabilize communities, and threaten
organizations and even whole societies.
These problems have become such a part of our world that knowing
how to prepare for them, how to respond when they happen, and how
to recover from them should be essential skills of modern life for
all of us.
We have certainly made progress in this regard, especially in
the years since 9/11, but we are still at greater risk than we
should be. We can't anticipate every disruption that might come our
way, but we can develop an overall approach for dealing with the
wicked problems, and formulate specific plans for areas where we
and our communities are particularly vulnerable.
"The Resilience Dividend" is both timely and important important
as both the severity and frequency of disruptions are increase. We
face extreme weather events, rapid population shifts, and global
interconnectedness that make us vulnerable to disruptions wherever
they take place. What's more, the list of global risks that we face
in the coming years is truly daunting: from cyber-attacks to food
shortage crises to extreme volatility in energy price. We can no
longer assume we are immune to the world's wicked problems, no
matter who we are and where we live. It develops both a way of
thinking and practical tools for taking action for protecting the
world's people and communities and shows how to create a blueprint
Our changing climate and more extreme weather events have dramatically increased the number and severity of floods across the world. Demonstrating the diversity of global flood risk management (FRM), this volume covers a range of topics including planning and policy, risk governance and communication, forecasting and warning, and economics. Through short case studies, the range of international examples from North America, Europe, Asia and Africa provide analysis of FRM efforts, processes and issues from human, governance and policy implementation perspectives. Written by an international set of authors, this collection of chapters and case studies will allow the reader to see how floods and flood risk management is experienced in different regions of the world. The way in which institutions manage flood risk is discussed, introducing the notions of realities and social constructions when it comes to risk management. The book will be of great interest to students and professionals of flood, coastal, river and natural hazard management, as well as risk analysis and insurance, demonstrating multiple academic frameworks of analysis and their utility and drawbacks when applied to real-life FRM contexts.
The book provides an overview of the floods and major hydrological changes that occurred in the medieval Hungarian kingdom (covering the majority of the Carpathian Basin) between 1000 and 1500 AD. The analysis was based on contemporary documentary evidence presented for the first time and the results of archaeological and scientific investigations. Beyond the evidence on individual flood events, the book includes a comprehensive overview of short-, medium-, and long-term changes detected in a hydrologically sensitive environment during the transition period between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. It also discusses the possible causes (including climate and human intervention) and the consequences for the physical and human environment, namely the related hydro-morphological changes, short- and long-term social response, and human perception issues.
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