This pioneering book addresses the entirety of river flooding issues in the Upper Vistula Basin, where considerable flood generation potential exists. It analyses the factors influencing flood risk, investigates variations in observation records and discusses projections for the future and adaptation to changing risk. It serves the general interest in understanding the floods that cause massive destruction in Europe, with dozens of fatalities and tremendous material damages. This interdisciplinary book, which covers aspects of climatology, geomorphology, hydrology, and water and flood risk management, unveils the complexity of the current situation. Access to reliable and accurate information can help solve important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies, and is at the core of the EU Floods Directive. As such, the book offers a valuable resource for scientists, educators and practitioners involved in water management, natural disaster reduction and adaptation to climate change.

This book is for geoscience researchers and students with interests in climate change, paleohydrology, and sedimentology. "Studies of Cave Sediments" is unique in that it is the first comprehensive volume on cave sediments, provides case-studies from around the world, gives guidance on appropriate applications of techniques, and their limitations, synthesizes methods that can be used to decipher complex deposits, and includes chemical deposits (speleothems) as well as clastic sediments.

This book presents review papers and research articles focusing on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China, discussing cross-disciplinary and multiple thematic aspects of modern seismological, geophysical, geological and stochastic methodology and technology. Resulting from international and regional earthquake research and disaster mitigation collaborations, and written by international authors from multiple institutions and disciplines, it describes methods and techniques in earthquake science based on investigations of the Wenchuan earthquake. It also includes extensive reference lists to aid further research. The book helps both senior researchers and graduate students in earthquake science to broaden their horizons in data analysis, numerical modeling and structural retrieval for the tectonic, geological, geophysical and mechanical interpretation of the 2008 M8 Wenchuan earthquake to support a global and regional cooperation for preparedness, and the mitigation and management of seismic risk.

On April 1, 1946, shortly after sunrise, the town of Hilo on the island of Hawai'i was devastated by a series of giant waves. Traveling 2,300 miles from the Aleutian Islands in less than five hours, the waves struck without warning and claimed 159 lives. Fourteen years later, on May 22, 1960, a massive earthquake occurred off of the coast of Chile. The earthquake generated giant waves that sped across the Pacific at 442 miles per hour, reaching Hilo in just fifteen hours. The first wave to hit the town was a modest four feet higher than normal, the second nine feet. Before the third wave could arrive, a tidal phenomenon known as a bore smashed into the Hilo bayfront, with thirty-five foot waves that wrenched buildings off their foundations. That day several city blocks were swept clean of all structures and 61 people died. The first edition of Tsunami!, published in 1988, provided readers with a complete examination of the tsunami phenomenon in Hawai'i. This second edition adds many eyewitness accounts of the tsunamis of 1946 and 1960 and expands its coverage to include major tsunamis in the Mediterranean and off the coasts of Japan, Chile, Indonesia, Fiji, Alaska, California, Newfoundland, and the Caribbean, as well as the 1998 devastation in Papua New Guinea. Dramatic photographs and accounts of experiencing a tsunami firsthand are placed within the framework of the how and why of tsunamis, our scientific understanding of these phenomena, and the current status of the Tsunami Warning System, which is widely used to forecast and measure tsunamis and prepare coastal areas for potentially deadly tsunami strikes.

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Man s intensifying use of the Earth s habitat has led to an urgent need for scientifically advanced geo-prediction systems that accurately locate subsurface resources and forecast the timing and magnitude of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and land subsidence.

As advances in the earth sciences lead to process-oriented ways of modeling the complex processes in the solid Earth, the papers in this volume provide a survey of some recent developments at the leading edge of this highly technical discipline. The chapters cover current research in predicting the future behavior of geologic systems as well as the mapping of geologic patterns that exist now in the subsurface as frozen evidence of the past. Both techniques are highly relevant to humanity s need for resources such as water, and will also help us control environmental degradation.

The book also discusses advances made in seismological methods to obtain information on the 3D structure of the mantle and the lithosphere, and in the quantitative understanding of lithospheric scale processes. It covers recent breakthroughs in 3D seismic imaging that have enhanced the spatial resolution of these structural processes, and the move towards 4D imaging that measures these processes over time.

The new frontier in modern Earth sciences described in this book has major implications for oceanographic and atmospheric sciences and our understanding of climate variability. It brings readers right up to date with the research in this vital field."

This book presents an overview of volcanic debris avalanche deposits, which are produced by partial volcanic edifice collapse, a catastrophic natural phenomenon. It has been 40 years since the volcanic debris avalanche associated with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, and our understanding of these events has grown considerably in the interim. Drawing on these advances, the book addresses all aspects of volcanic debris avalanches. Though previously overlooked in field-based geological and volcanological studies, these deposits are now known to be associated with most volcanoes and volcanic areas around the world. The book presents state-of-the-art ideas on the triggering and emplacement mechanisms of these events, supported by field and analogue studies, as well as new simulations tools and models used to determine their physical characteristic and hazards.

Resilience and Urban Risk Management presents the latest progress made in designing resilient towns, and identifies leads to be explored for attaining the objective of systematically integrating risks into urban environments The aim of the book is to provide guidance in designing and planning future cities, and to create a new form of risk management that does not ignore what already exists, but integrates it in the same way as if it were new. Resilience and Urban Risk Management is of interest to academics, architects, town planners and engineers concerned with the relationship between urban projects and the various aspects of the urban resilience concept via concrete applications and methodological or historical reflections. Damien SERRE, HDR, Professor Assistant at the Paris-Est University, EIVP, in charge of the "urban resilience" research section. The final objective of his research is to formalize knowledge useful for decision-making and helping in designing towns that are resilient when facing risks. His research is trans-disciplinary and in service of the city. Bruno BARROCA, Architect and Professor Assistant in Urban Engineering at the Paris-Est University, a member of the urban engineering team of the LEESU laboratory (Water, Environment and Urban Systems Laboratory). His research establishes links between geography, town planning and regional development. Applications cover assessment of urban vulnerability and integration of resilience objectives in urban projects located on territories subject to natural and technological risks. Richard LAGANIER, Professor in Geography at the Universite Paris 7 Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cite, the PRODIG laboratory (Centre of Research for Organization and Distribution of Geographical Information). His research activities cover the study of relationships between risks linked with water and territories and analysis of the conditions needed for developing resilience. He is the author/co-author of a large number of works on hydrological extremes and their management.

Critical incidents all too often explode onto the social conscious and challenge our sense of security. This comprehensive handbook brings together a range of experts who provide a foundation for the field of critical incident analysis by examining specific incidents9/11, the Virginia Tech massacre, the H1N1 pandemic, the BP oil spill, and more--through various methodological and disciplinary lenses.

This book explores the nexus among food, energy and water in peri-urban areas, demonstrating how relevant this nexus is for environmental sustainability. In particular it examines the effective management of the nexus in the face of the risks and trade-offs of mitigation policies, and as a mean to create resilience to climate change. The book delineates strategies and actions necessary to develop and protect our natural resources and improve the functionality of the nexus, such as: integrated management of the major resources that characterize the metabolism of a city, stronger coordination among stakeholders who often weight differently the services that are relevant to their individual concerns, integration of efforts towards environmental protection, adaptation to and prevention of climate change and disaster risks mitigation.

A seminar on "Practical Approaches to Earthquake Prediction and Warning" was held in Tokyo and Tsukuba, Japan on November 7-11, 1983. This was the sixth seminar on earthquake prediction in the framework of the U.S.-Japan Cooperation in Science Program, a series that was initiated in 1964. The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and the National Science Foundation of the U.S.A. sponsored the seminar. The U.S. Geological Survey gave substantial additional support by sen ding a number of scientists to the seminar. C. H. Scholz, Columbia University, and T. Rikitake, Nihon University, were the co-convenors on behalf of the U.S.A. and Japan, respectively. 23 Japanese and 23 American delegates and observers took part in the seminar. Forty papers were presented during the three days of scientific sessions at the Interna tional House of Japan, Roppongi, Tokyo, November 7-9. The other two days were spent on a field trip to Tsukuba Science City, where national laboratories engaged in earthquake prediction research and other aspects of earthquake hazard reduction have been established by several agencies of the Japanese Government. The program of the scientific sessions was organized according to the following topics: 1. The national programs of Japan and the U.S.A. 2. Theory and long-term earthquake prediction. 3. Strain and stress. 4. Observation systems. 5. Various precursors. 6. Social response, public policy and earthquake engineering."

As our economic and natural systems continue on their collision course, Bruce Jennings asks whether we have the political capacity to avoid large-scale environmental disaster. Can liberal democracy, he wonders, respond in time to ecological challenges that require dramatic changes in the way we approach the natural world? Must a more effective governance be less democratic and more autocratic? Or can a new form of grassroots ecological democracy save us from ourselves and the false promises of material consumption run amok? Ecological Governance is an ethicist's reckoning with how our political culture, broadly construed, must change in response to climate change. Jennings argues that during the Anthropocene era a social contract of consumption has been forged. Under it people have given political and economic control to elites in exchange for the promise of economic growth. In a new political economy of the future, the terms of the consumptive contract cannot be met without severe ecological damage. We will need a new guiding vision and collective aim, a new social contract of ecological trusteeship and responsibility.

In all of the major challenges facing the world currently, whether it be climate change, terrorism and conflict, or urbanization and demographic change, no progress is possible without the alleviation of poverty. New approaches in development economics have in recent years started from the premise that we cannot successfully deal with poverty unless we also deal with vulnerability-but not only vulnerability to income poverty but also vulnerability to various others hazards-such as climate, conflict, macroeconomic shocks and natural disasters. This book provide insights into new approaches in conceptualising and measuring vulnerability. It includes chapters dealing with advanced issues such as the compilation of economic vulnerability indices (EVIs) on a macro-level, of conceptualizing and measuring local vulnerability across regions in a country, and of measuring the flip-side of vulnerability, namely resilience. The book also explores the sensitivities of the various measurements of vulnerability to vulnerability lines, poverty lines, and permanent income, with consideration to some of the most vulnerable groups in developing countries. Overall, the contributions in the book consolidate new approaches as far as the concept and measurement of vulnerability on different levels and outcomes are concerned, and note directions for future research. This book was published as a special issue of Oxford Development Studies.

First published in 1990, this book describes the nature of the hurricane, one of the world's most dangerous weather hazards. It examines the formation, development, movement, and impact of these tropical cyclones, and assess the ability of science to describe, forecast, and control them.

This book focuses on the earthquake source materials produced or deformed by both seismic faulting and aseismic creep within seismogenic fault zones at different levels of the crust. In particular, the mechanisms and processes involved in the formation of earthquake materials are covered. The book is intended to help bridge the gap between seismology and geology and to encourage further studies of earthquake mechanisms and seismic faulting processes.

This collection of articles provides a unique overview of the state of the science in the prediction of and response to natural disaster events. The uniqueness of this volume is that it comprises more than just the physical science perspective. For each natural hazard included in this text, social scientists have provided research summaries of how public perceptions are related to the actions that are likely to be undertaken when people are confronted with information about the existence of a natural hazard threat. In this book the reader can find a truly international characterization of both hazard perception and prediction. The American and European contributors provide state-of-the-science overviews of empirically-based research knowledge that expands beyond any national boundaries. This approach has resulted in broader understanding of what is currently known about predicting natural hazard events and predicting how those events, or warnings of them, will be responded to by different types of societies.

This book is an original and novel contribution to flood hazard assessment, climate change and land use change and is intended to serve both as an effective source of information and a valuable basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood hazard assessment. The study area is located on the floodplain of the Ubaye River in the Barcelonnette area, part of the Alpes de Haute Provence in southeast France. The book offers a comparative overview of the major challenges faced when dealing with flood hazards. The research presented is intended to promote a deeper understanding of how climate change and land use change processes have evolved from past to present, and how they affect the flow regime of the Ubaye River based on sound and reproducible scientific arguments. The methodology implemented ranges from remote sensing interpretation to hydrodynamic modeling and includes the application of spatial and statistical modeling. The results of this research provide essential information for policymaking, decision-making support and flood hazard planning in the Barcelonnette area.

Efficient and equitable policies for managing disaster risks and adapting to global environmental change are critically dependent on development of robust options supported by integrated modeling.

The book is based on research and state-of-the art models developed at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and within its cooperation network. It addresses the methodological complexities of assessing disaster risks, which call for stochastic simulation, optimization methods and economic modeling. Furthermore, it describes policy frameworks for integrated disaster risk management, including stakeholder participation facilitated by user-interactive decision-support tools.

Applications and results are presented for a number of case studies at different problem scales and in different socio-economic contexts, and their implications for loss sharing policies and economic development are discussed. Among others, the book presents studies for insurance policies for earthquakes in the Tuscany region in Italy and flood risk in the Tisza river basin in Hungary. Further, it investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on development and possible financial coping strategies; and applications are shown for selected South Asian countries.

The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involvedwith catastrophe risk management and risk mitigation policies.

Our coasts provide a home and livelihoods for millions of people; many of the world's biggest cities are along coastlines. Yet these precious areas face increasing threats from irresponsible development and the potential dangers of climate change. This volume explores the wide spectrum of coastal hazards, from high-magnitude, low-frequency events like tsunamis and hurricanes, to longer-term processes like urban regeneration and changing agricultural practices. International case studies range from mitigation measures in the Azores Archipelago to managing a coastal resort in South Wales, to tsunami early warning systems in the Indian Ocean Region. The resulting collection spans approaches from social science, engineering, planning, geology and biology and presents an integrated approach for assessing the impact of, and response to, coastal hazards. It will be of interest to all those involved in strategies for the environmental management of coastlines.

This book collects a series of review articles summarizing the outcomes of collaborative research projects on the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, two of the largest and most disastrous earthquakes in Asia in the last two decades. The articles cover a broad range of aspects,including these earthquakes' fundamental mechanisms, kinematics, and the geological and geophysical background of their fracture faults. Presenting comprehensive coverage, the book offers a valuable reference guide to these two devastating earthquakes.

This book presents a multiregional input-output model for the metropolitan area of Southern California, which helps to estimate the economic impact of simulated terrorist attacks on seaports, malls etc. as well as of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The authors also analyze the economic and social effects of metropolitan policies such as growth controls, neighborhood gentrification or road-congestion charges. The model presented in the book has evolved over a period of 25 years and requires a very substantial computer capacity.

This book critically examines the global diffusion and local reception of resilience through the implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) programmes in Pacific and Caribbean island states. Global efforts to strengthen local disaster resilience capacities have become a staple of international development activity in recent decades, yet the successful implementation of DRR projects designed to strengthen local resilience remains elusive. While there are pockets of success, a gap remains between global expectations and local realities. Through a critical realist study of global and local worldviews of resilience in the Pacific and Caribbean islands, this book argues that the global advocacy of DRR remains inadequate because of a failure to prioritise a person-orientated ethics in its conceptualization of disaster resilience. This regional comparison provides a valuable lens to understand the underlying social structures that makes resilience possible and the extent to which local governments, communities and persons interpret and modify their behaviour on risk when faced with the global message on resilience. This book will be of much interest to students of resilience, risk management, development studies, and area studies.

This book establishes a new, holistic framework for disaster recovery and mitigation, providing a multidisciplinary perspective on the field of risk management strategies and societal and communal resilience. Going beyond narrow approaches that are all too prevalent in the field, this work builds on an optimum combination of community-level networks, private market mechanisms and state-based assistance strategies. Its chapters describe best practices in the field and elucidate cutting-edge research on recovery, highlighting the interaction between government, industry and civil society. The book uses new data from a number of recent disasters across southeast and east Asia to understand the interactions among residents, the state, and catastrophe, drawing on events in Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Japan, China and Thailand. Grounded in theories of risk mitigation and empirical research, the book provides practical guidance for decision makers along with future research directions for scholars.

"The Asian region is highly prone to natural disasters which devastate large and mostly poor populations. This book deals with some of the root issues underlying the continued vulnerability of these societies to catastrophic shocks. The book is unusual in that it comprehensively covers resilience and fragilities from community levels to market mechanisms and governance and it analyses these issues in very different economic and structural settings. Recommended for development and disaster risk managers without question."

Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir

Director, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED); Professor, University of Louvain, Research Institute Health and Society."

The recent explosion of global and regional seismicity data in the world requires new methods of investigation of microseismicity and development of their modelling to understand the nature of whole earth mechanics. In this book, the author proposes a powerful tool to reveal the characteristic features of global and regional microseismicity big data accumulated in the databases of the world. The method proposed in this monograph is based on (1) transformation of stored big data to seismicity density data archives, (2) linear transformation of microseismicity density data matrixes to correlated seismicity matrixes by means of the singular value decomposition method, (3) time series analyses of globally and regionally correlated seismicity rates, and (4) the minimal non-linear equations approximation of their correlated seismicity rate dynamics. Minimal non-linear modelling is the manifestation for strongly correlated seismicity time series controlled by Langevin-type stochastic dynamic equations involving deterministic terms and random Gaussian noises. A deterministic term is composed minimally with correlated seismicity rate vectors of a linear term and of a term with a third exponent. Thus, the dynamics of correlated seismicity in the world contains linearly changing stable nodes and rapid transitions between them with transient states. This book contains discussions of future possibilities of stochastic extrapolations of global and regional seismicity in order to reduce earthquake disasters worldwide. The dataset files are available online and can be downloaded at springer.com.

Recent landslide events demonstrate the need to improve landslide forecasting and early warning capabilities in order to reduce related risks and protect human lives. In this thesis, local and regional investigations were carried out to analyse landslide characteristics in the Swabian Alb region, and to develop prototypic landslide early warning systems.
In the local study area, an extensive hydrological and slope movement monitoring system was installed on a seasonally reactivated landslide body located in Lichtenstein-
Unterhausen. Monitoring data was analysed to assess the influence of rainfall and snow-melt on groundwater conditions, and the initiation of slope movements.
The coupled hydrology-slope stability model CHASM was applied to detect areas most prone to slope failures, and to simulate slope stability using a variety of input data. Subsequently, CHASM was refined and two web-based applications were developed: a technical early warning system to constantly simulate slope stability integrating rainfall measurements, hydrological monitoring data and weather forecasts; and a decision-support system allowing for quick calculation of stability for freely selectable slope profiles. On the regional scale, available landslide inventory data were analysed for their use in evaluation of rainfall thresholds proposed in other studies. Adequate landslide events were selected and their triggering rainfall and snow-melting conditions were compared to intensity-duration and cumulative thresholds. Based on the results, a regional landslide early warning system was developed and implemented as a webbased application.
Both, the local and the regional landslide early warning systems are part of a holistic and integrative early warning chain developed by the ILEWS project, and could easily be transferred to other landslide prone areas.