Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods have fundamental, central roles in scientific inference, and, with the growing availability of computer power, are being successfully applied in an increasing number of applications in many disciplines. This volume contains selected papers presented at the Thirteenth International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. It includes an extensive tutorial section, and a variety of contributions detailing application in the physical sciences, engineering, law, and economics. Audience: Researchers and other professionals whose work requires the application of practical statistical inference.

Point processes and random measures find wide applicability in telecommunications, earthquakes, image analysis, spatial point patterns, and stereology, to name but a few areas. The authors have made a major reshaping of their work in their first edition of 1988 and now present their Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes in two volumes with sub-titles Elementary Theory and Models and General Theory and Structure. Volume One contains the introductory chapters from the first edition, together with an informal treatment of some of the later material intended to make it more accessible to readers primarily interested in models and applications. The main new material in this volume relates to marked point processes and to processes evolving in time, where the conditional intensity methodology provides a basis for model building, inference, and prediction. There are abundant examples whose purpose is both didactic and to illustrate further applications of the ideas and models that are the main substance of the text. Volume Two returns to the general theory, with additional material on marked and spatial processes. The necessary mathematical background is reviewed in appendices located in Volume One. Daryl Daley is a Senior Fellow in the Centre for Mathematics and Applications at the Australian National University, with research publications in a diverse range of applied probability models and their analysis; he is co-author with Joe Gani of an introductory text in epidemic modelling. David Vere-Jones is an Emeritus Professor at Victoria University of Wellington, widely known for his contributions to Markov chains, point processes, applications in seismology, and statistical education. He is a fellow and Gold Medallist of the Royal Society of New Zealand, and a director of the consulting group "Statistical Research Associates."

This book originated from our interest in sea surface temperature variability. Our initial, though entirely pragmatic, goal was to derive adequate mathemat ical tools for handling certain oceanographic problems. Eventually, however, these considerations went far beyond oceanographic applications partly because one of the authors is a mathematician. We found that many theoretical issues of turbulent transport problems had been repeatedly discussed in fields of hy drodynamics, plasma and solid matter physics, and mathematics itself. There are few monographs concerned with turbulent diffusion in the ocean (Csanady 1973, Okubo 1980, Monin and Ozmidov 1988). While selecting material for this book we focused, first, on theoretical issues that could be helpful for understanding mixture processes in the ocean, and, sec ond, on our own contribution to the problem. Mathematically all of the issues addressed in this book are concentrated around a single linear equation: the stochastic advection-diffusion equation. There is no attempt to derive universal statistics for turbulent flow. Instead, the focus is on a statistical description of a passive scalar (tracer) under given velocity statistics. As for applications, this book addresses only one phenomenon: transport of sea surface temperature anomalies. Hopefully, however, our two main approaches are applicable to other subjects."

This work focuses on analyzing and presenting solutions for a wide range of stochastic problems that are encountered in applied mathematics, probability, physics, engineering, finance, and economics. The approach used reduces the gap between the mathematical and engineering literature. Stochastic problems are defined by algebraic, differential or integral equations with random coefficients and/or input. However, it is the type, rather than the particular field of application, that is used to categorize these problems.

An introductory chapter outlines the types of stochastic problems under consideration in this book and illustrates some of their applications. A user friendly, systematic exposition unfolds as follows: The essentials of probability theory, random processes, stochastic integration, and Monte Carlo simulation are developed in chapters 2--5. The Monte Carlo method is used extensively to illustrate difficult theoretical concepts and solve numerically some of the stochastic problems in chapters 6--9.

Key features:

* Computational skills developed as needed to solve realistic stochastic problems

* Classical mathematical notation used, and essential theoretical facts boxed

* Numerous examples from applied sciences and engineering

* Complete proofs given; if too technical, notes clarify the idea and/or main steps

* Problems at the end of each chapter reinforce applications; hints given.

* Good bibliography at the end of every chapter

* Comprehensive index

This work is unique, self-contained, and far from a collection of facts and formulas. The analytical and numerical methods approach for solving stochastic problems may be used for self-study by avariety of researchers, and in the classroom by first year graduate students.

This volume is devoted to stochastic and chaotic oscillations in dissipative systems. It first deals with mathematical models of deterministic, discrete and distributed dynamical systems. It then considers the two basic trends of order and chaos, and describes stochasticity transformers, amplifiers and generators, turbulence and phase portraits of steady-state motions and their bifurcations. The books also treats the topics of stochastic and chaotic attractors, as well as the routes to chaos and the quantitative characteristics of stochastic and chaotic motions. Finally, in a chapter which comprises more than one-third of the book, examples are presented of systems having chaotic and stochastic motions drawn from mechanical, physical, chemical and biological systems.

A self-contained treatment of stochastic processes arising from models for queues, insurance risk, and dams and data communication, using their sample function properties. The approach is based on the fluctuation theory of random walks, L vy processes, and Markov-additive processes, in which Wiener-Hopf factorisation plays a central role. This second edition includes results for the virtual waiting time and queue length in single server queues, while the treatment of continuous time storage processes is thoroughly revised and simplified. With its prerequisite of a graduate-level course in probability and stochastic processes, this book can be used as a text for an advanced course on applied probability models.

This monograph presents the geoscientific context arising in decorrelative gravitational exploration to determine the mass density distribution inside the Earth. First, an insight into the current state of research is given by reducing gravimetry to mathematically accessible, and thus calculable, decorrelated models. In this way, the various unresolved questions and problems of gravimetry are made available to a broad scientific audience and the exploration industry. New theoretical developments will be given, and innovative ways of modeling geologic layers and faults by mollifier regularization techniques are shown. This book is dedicated to surface as well as volume geology with potential data primarily of terrestrial origin. For deep geology, the geomathematical decorrelation methods are to be designed in such a way that depth information (e.g., in boreholes) may be canonically entered. Bridging several different geo-disciplines, this book leads in a cycle from the potential measurements made by geoengineers, to the cleansing of data by geophysicists and geoengineers, to the subsequent theory and model formation, computer-based implementation, and numerical calculation and simulations made by geomathematicians, to interpretation by geologists, and, if necessary, back. It therefore spans the spectrum from geoengineering, especially geodesy, via geophysics to geomathematics and geology, and back. Using the German Saarland area for methodological tests, important new fields of application are opened, particularly for regions with mining-related cavities or dense development in today's geo-exploration.

This volume has its origin in the Seventeenth International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, MAXENT 97. The workshop was held at Boise State University in Boise, Idaho, on August 4 -8, 1997. As in the past, the purpose of the workshop was to bring together researchers in different fields to present papers on applications of Bayesian methods (these include maximum entropy) in science, engineering, medicine, economics, and many other disciplines. Thanks to significant theoretical advances and the personal computer, much progress has been made since our first Workshop in 1981. As indicated by several papers in these proceedings, the subject has matured to a stage in which computational algorithms are the objects of interest, the thrust being on feasibility, efficiency and innovation. Though applications are proliferating at a staggering rate, some in areas that hardly existed a decade ago, it is pleasing that due attention is still being paid to foundations of the subject. The following list of descriptors, applicable to papers in this volume, gives a sense of its contents: deconvolution, inverse problems, instrument (point-spread) function, model comparison, multi sensor data fusion, image processing, tomography, reconstruction, deformable models, pattern recognition, classification and group analysis, segmentation/edge detection, brain shape, marginalization, algorithms, complexity, Ockham's razor as an inference tool, foundations of probability theory, symmetry, history of probability theory and computability. MAXENT 97 and these proceedings could not have been brought to final form without the support and help of a number of people.

'Et moi *...* si j'avait su comment en rcvenir. One service mathematics has rendered the je n'y serais point alle.' human race. It has put common sense back Jules Verne where it belongs, on the topmost shelf next to the dusty canistcr labelled 'discarded non- sense'. The scries is divergent; therefore we may be Eric T. Bell able to do something with it. O. Heaviside Mathematics is a tool for thought. A highly necessary tool in a world where both feedback and non- linearities abound. Similarly, all kinds of parts of mathematics serve as tools for other parts and for other sciences. Applying a simple rewriting rule to the quote on the right above one finds such statements as: 'One service topology has rendered mathematical physics ...'; 'One service logic has rendered com- puter science ...'; 'One service category theory has rendered mathematics ...'. All arguably true. And all statements obtainable this way form part of the raison d'etre of this series.

This book presents various results and techniques from the theory of stochastic processes that are useful in the study of stochastic problems in the natural sciences. The main focus is analytical methods, although numerical methods and statistical inference methodologies for studying diffusion processes are also presented. The goal is the development of techniques that are applicable to a wide variety of stochastic models that appear in physics, chemistry and other natural sciences. Applications such as stochastic resonance, Brownian motion in periodic potentials and Brownian motors are studied and the connection between diffusion processes and time-dependent statistical mechanics is elucidated. The book contains a large number of illustrations, examples, and exercises. It will be useful for graduate-level courses on stochastic processes for students in applied mathematics, physics and engineering. Many of the topics covered in this book (reversible diffusions, convergence to equilibrium for diffusion processes, inference methods for stochastic differential equations, derivation of the generalized Langevin equation, exit time problems) cannot be easily found in textbook form and will be useful to both researchers and students interested in the applications of stochastic processes.

This book gives an overview of affine diffusions, from Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes to Wishart processes and it considers some related diffusions such as Wright-Fisher processes. It focuses on different simulation schemes for these processes, especially second-order schemes for the weak error. It also presents some models, mostly in the field of finance, where these methods are relevant and provides some numerical experiments. The book explains the mathematical background to understand affine diffusions and analyze the accuracy of the schemes.

Computations with Markov Chains presents the edited and reviewed proceedings of the Second International Workshop on the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains, held January 16--18, 1995, in Raleigh, North Carolina. New developments of particular interest include recent work on stability and conditioning, Krylov subspace-based methods for transient solutions, quadratic convergent procedures for matrix geometric problems, further analysis of the GTH algorithm, the arrival of stochastic automata networks at the forefront of modelling stratagems, and more. An authoritative overview of the field for applied probabilists, numerical analysts and systems modelers, including computer scientists and engineers.

This monograph surveys the theory of quantitative homogenization for second-order linear elliptic systems in divergence form with rapidly oscillating periodic coefficients in a bounded domain. It begins with a review of the classical qualitative homogenization theory, and addresses the problem of convergence rates of solutions. The main body of the monograph investigates various interior and boundary regularity estimates that are uniform in the small parameter e>0. Additional topics include convergence rates for Dirichlet eigenvalues and asymptotic expansions of fundamental solutions, Green functions, and Neumann functions. The monograph is intended for advanced graduate students and researchers in the general areas of analysis and partial differential equations. It provides the reader with a clear and concise exposition of an important and currently active area of quantitative homogenization.

Generalising classical concepts of probability theory, the investigation of operator (semi)-stable laws as possible limit distributions of operator-normalized sums of i.i.d. random variable on finite-dimensional vector space started in 1969. Currently, this theory is still in progress and promises interesting applications. Parallel to this, similar stability concepts for probabilities on groups were developed during recent decades. It turns out that the existence of suitable limit distributions has a strong impact on the structure of both the normalizing automorphisms and the underlying group. Indeed, investigations in limit laws led to contractable groups and - at least within the class of connected groups - to homogeneous groups, in particular to groups that are topologically isomorphic to a vector space. Moreover, it has been shown that (semi)-stable measures on groups have a vector space counterpart and vice versa. The purpose of this book is to describe the structure of limit laws and the limit behaviour of normalized i.i.d. random variables on groups and on finite-dimensional vector spaces from a common point of view. This will also shed a new light on the classical situation. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to stability problems on vector spaces. Chapter II is concerned with parallel investigations for homogeneous groups and in Chapter III the situation beyond homogeneous Lie groups is treated. Throughout, emphasis is laid on the description of features common to the group- and vector space situation. Chapter I can be understood by graduate students with some background knowledge in infinite divisibility. Readers of Chapters II and III are assumed to be familiar with basic techniques from probability theory on locally compact groups.

Over the last fifteen years fractal geometry has established itself as a substantial mathematical theory in its own right. The interplay between fractal geometry, analysis and stochastics has highly influenced recent developments in mathematical modeling of complicated structures. This process has been forced by problems in these areas related to applications in statistical physics, biomathematics and finance.

This book is a collection of survey articles covering many of the most recent developments, like Schramm-Loewner evolution, fractal scaling limits, exceptional sets for percolation, and heat kernels on fractals. The authors were the keynote speakers at the conference "Fractal Geometry and Stochastics IV" at Greifswald in September 2008.

This book gives a self-contained introduction to the dynamic martingale approach to marked point processes (MPP). Based on the notion of a compensator, this approach gives a versatile tool for analyzing and describing the stochastic properties of an MPP. In particular, the authors discuss the relationship of an MPP to its compensator and particular classes of MPP are studied in great detail. The theory is applied to study properties of dependent marking and thinning, to prove results on absolute continuity of point process distributions, to establish sufficient conditions for stochastic ordering between point and jump processes, and to solve the filtering problem for certain classes of MPPs.

The 1992 Seminar on Stochastic Processes was held at the Univer sity of Washington from March 26 to March 28, 1992. This was the twelfth in a series of annual meetings which provide researchers with the opportunity to discuss current work on stochastic processes in an informal and enjoyable atmosphere. Previous seminars were held at Northwestern University, Princeton University, University of Florida, University of Virginia, University of California, San Diego, University of British Columbia and University of California, Los An geles. Following the successful format of previous years, there were five invited lectures, delivered by R. Adler, R. Banuelos, J. Pitman, S. J. Taylor and R. Williams, with the remainder of the time being devoted to informal communications and workshops on current work and problems. The enthusiasm and interest of the participants cre ated a lively and stimulating atmosphere for the seminar. A sample of the research discussed there is contained in this volume. The 1992 Seminar was made possible through the support of the National Science Foundation, the National Security Agency, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the University of Washing ton. We extend our thanks to them and to the publisher Birkhauser Boston for their support and encouragement. Richard F. Bass Krzysztof Burdzy Seattle, 1992 SUPERPROCESS LOCAL AND INTERSECTION LOCAL TIMES AND THEIR CORRESPONDING PARTICLE PICTURES Robert J."

This thesis is concerned with establishing a rigorous, modern theory of the stochastic and dissipative forces on crystal defects, which remain poorly understood despite their importance in any temperature dependent micro-structural process such as the ductile to brittle transition or irradiation damage. The author first uses novel molecular dynamics simulations to parameterise an efficient, stochastic and discrete dislocation model that allows access to experimental time and length scales. Simulated trajectories are in excellent agreement with experiment. The author also applies modern methods of multiscale analysis to extract novel bounds on the transport properties of these many body systems. Despite their successes in coarse graining, existing theories are found unable to explain stochastic defect dynamics. To resolve this, the author defines crystal defects through projection operators, without any recourse to elasticity. By rigorous dimensional reduction, explicit analytical forms are derived for the stochastic forces acting on crystal defects, allowing new quantitative insight into the role of thermal fluctuations in crystal plasticity.

Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance offers a thorough yet accessible reference for researchers and practitioners of insurance mathematics. Building on recent and rapid developments in applied probability the authors describe in general terms models based on Markov processes, martingales and various types of point processes. Discussing frequently asked insurance questions, the authors present a coherent overview of the subject and specifically address:

• the principal concepts of insurance and finance
• practical examples with real life data
• numerical and algorithmic procedures essential for modern insurance practices

This book presents a comprehensive development of effective numerical methods for stochastic control problems in continuous time. The process models are diffusions, jump-diffusions, or reflected diffusions of the type that occur in the majority of current applications. All the usual problem formulations are included, as well as those of more recent interest such as ergodic control, singular control and the types of reflected diffusions used as models of queuing networks. Applications to complex deterministic problems are illustrated via application to a large class of problems from the calculus of variations. The general approach is known as the Markov Chain Approximation Method. The required background to stochastic processes is surveyed, there is an extensive development of methods of approximation, and a chapter is devoted to computational techniques. The book is written on two levels, that of practice (algorithms and applications) and that of the mathematical development. Thus the methods and use should be broadly accessible. This update to the first edition will include added material on the control of the 'jump term' and the 'diffusion term.' There will be additional material on the deterministic problems, solving the Hamilton-Jacobi equations, for which the authors' methods are still among the most useful for many classes of problems. All of these topics are of great and growing current interest.

Nonlinear statistical modelling is an area of growing importance. This monograph presents mostly new results and methods concerning the nonlinear regression model. Among the aspects which are considered are linear properties of nonlinear models, multivariate nonlinear regression, intrinsic and parameter effect curvature, algorithms for calculating the L2-estimator and both local and global approximation. In addition to this a chapter has been added on the large topic of nonlinear exponential families. The volume will be of interest to both experts in the field of nonlinear statistical modelling and to those working in the identification of models and optimization, as well as to statisticians in general.

This book provides, as simply as possible, sound foundations for an in-depth understanding of reliability engineering with regard to qualitative analysis, modelling, and probabilistic calculations of safety and production systems. Drawing on the authors' extensive experience within the field of reliability engineering, it addresses and discusses a variety of topics, including: * Background and overview of safety and dependability studies; * Explanation and critical analysis of definitions related to core concepts; * Risk identification through qualitative approaches (preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, FMECA, etc.); * Modelling of industrial systems through static (fault tree, reliability block diagram), sequential (cause-consequence diagrams, event trees, LOPA, bowtie), and dynamic (Markov graphs, Petri nets) approaches; * Probabilistic calculations through state-of-the-art analytical or Monte Carlo simulation techniques; * Analysis, modelling, and calculations of common cause failure and uncertainties; * Linkages and combinations between the various modelling and calculation approaches; * Reliability data collection and standardization. The book features illustrations, explanations, examples, and exercises to help readers gain a detailed understanding of the topic and implement it into their own work. Further, it analyses the production availability of production systems and the functional safety of safety systems (SIL calculations), showcasing specific applications of the general theory discussed. Given its scope, this book is a valuable resource for engineers, software designers, standard developers, professors, and students.

This book describes methods for calculating magnetic resonance spectra which are observed in the presence of random processes. The emphasis is on the stochastic Liouville equation (SLE), developed mainly by Kubo and applied to magnetic resonance mostly by J H Freed and his co-workers. Following an introduction to the use of density matrices in magnetic resonance, a unified treatment of Bloch-Redfield relaxation theory and chemical exchange theory is presented. The SLE formalism is then developed and compared to the other relaxation theories. Methods for solving the SLE are explained in detail, and its application to a variety of problems in electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is studied. In addition, experimental aspects relevant to the applications are discussed. Mathematical background material is given in appendices.

This is the standard textbook for courses on probability and statistics, not substantially updated. While helping students to develop their problem-solving skills, the author motivates students with practical applications from various areas of ECE that demonstrate the relevance of probability theory to engineering practice. Included are chapter overviews, summaries, checklists of important terms, annotated references, and a wide selection of fully worked-out real-world examples. In this edition, the Computer Methods sections have been updated and substantially enhanced and new problems have been added.

1 2 Jean-Dominique Deuschel and Andreas Greven 1 Fakult] at II - Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften, Institut fur ] Mathematik, Technische Universit] at Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 136, D-10623 Berlin Tel. (0049 30) 314-25193, Fax: (0049 30) 314-21695 deuschel@math. tu-berlin. de 2 1 Mathematisches Institut, Bismarckstr. 1, D-91054 Erlangen, 2 Tel. (0049 9131) 85-22454, Fax (0049 9131) 85-26214 This volume collects original work and reviews on work in the ?eld of pro- bilitywhichtookplacewithintheframeworkoftheDFG-Schwerpunkt: Int- acting stochastic systems of high complexity. This research network started in May 1997 and was funded till May 2003. In this network between 20 30 (depending on the 2-year periods of grant renewal) groups from probab- ity, statistical physics and mathematical statistics within Germany were - tive. An extensive international collaboration was an essential part of this network and here particularly intense contacts were built up between the DFG-Schwerpunkt and EURANDOM, a European institute for research in stochastics, which was founded in 1997. This partnership reached from joint workshops and colloquia to collaborations on speci?c projects. The key scienti?c idea which was behind the research network was to - plore and develop the connections between research in in?nite dimensional stochastic analysis, statistical physics (Gibbs measures, random media), s- tial population models from mathematical biology, complex models of ?n- cial markets or of stochastic models with interacting components in other sciences as for example in climatology."