The field of communication systems is full of complex design questions concerning performance and reliability. Since data traffic and errors occur in a random fashion, stochastic models are used for developing and comparing systems. In particular, stochastic Petri nets have become a popular tool for the description and automatic evaluation of such models. The use of non-Markovian models has become important as they allow more flexibility.

• Provides a clear exposition of the use of stochastic Petri nets in communication systems engineering

• Introduces the reader to the analysis techniques and algorithms used in performance evaluation

• Provides an accompanying example to clarify the use of each definition, concept and algorithm

• Mathematica routines used for implementing the algorithms are available on the Wiley ftp site

Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Sixth Edition, uniquely emphasizes how probability informs statistical problems, thus helping readers develop an intuitive understanding of the statistical procedures commonly used by practicing engineers and scientists. Utilizing real data from actual studies across life science, engineering, computing and business, this useful introduction supports reader comprehension through a wide variety of exercises and examples. End-of-chapter reviews of materials highlight key ideas, also discussing the risks associated with the practical application of each material. In the new edition, coverage includes information on Big Data and the use of R. This book is intended for upper level undergraduate and graduate students taking a probability and statistics course in engineering programs as well as those across the biological, physical and computer science departments. It is also appropriate for scientists, engineers and other professionals seeking a reference of foundational content and application to these fields.

This book offers a systematic introduction to the optimal stochastic control theory via the dynamic programming principle, which is a powerful tool to analyze control problems. First we consider completely observable control problems with finite horizons. Using a time discretization we construct a nonlinear semigroup related to the dynamic programming principle (DPP), whose generator provides the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, and we characterize the value function via the nonlinear semigroup, besides the viscosity solution theory. When we control not only the dynamics of a system but also the terminal time of its evolution, control-stopping problems arise. This problem is treated in the same frameworks, via the nonlinear semigroup. Its results are applicable to the American option price problem. Zero-sum two-player time-homogeneous stochastic differential games and viscosity solutions of the Isaacs equations arising from such games are studied via a nonlinear semigroup related to DPP (the min-max principle, to be precise). Using semi-discretization arguments, we construct the nonlinear semigroups whose generators provide lower and upper Isaacs equations. Concerning partially observable control problems, we refer to stochastic parabolic equations driven by colored Wiener noises, in particular, the Zakai equation. The existence and uniqueness of solutions and regularities as well as Ito's formula are stated. A control problem for the Zakai equations has a nonlinear semigroup whose generator provides the HJB equation on a Banach space. The value function turns out to be a unique viscosity solution for the HJB equation under mild conditions. This edition provides a more generalized treatment of the topic than does the earlier book Lectures on Stochastic Control Theory (ISI Lecture Notes 9), where time-homogeneous cases are dealt with. Here, for finite time-horizon control problems, DPP was formulated as a one-parameter nonlinear semigroup, whose generator provides the HJB equation, by using a time-discretization method. The semigroup corresponds to the value function and is characterized as the envelope of Markovian transition semigroups of responses for constant control processes. Besides finite time-horizon controls, the book discusses control-stopping problems in the same frameworks.

Inspired by the eternal beauty and truth of the laws governing the run of stars on heavens over his head, and spurred by the idea to catch, perhaps for the smallest fraction of the shortest instant, the Eternity itself, man created such masterpieces of human intellect like the Platon's world of ideas manifesting eternal truths, like the Euclidean geometry, or like the Newtonian celestial me chanics. However, turning his look to the sub-lunar world of our everyday efforts, troubles, sorrows and, from time to time but very, very seldom, also our successes, he saw nothing else than a world full of uncertainty and tem porariness. One remedy or rather consolation was that of the deep and sage resignation offered by Socrates: I know, that I know nothing. But, happy or unhappy enough, the temptation to see and to touch at least a very small por tion of eternal truth also under these circumstances and behind phenomena charged by uncertainty was too strong. Probability theory in its most sim ple elementary setting entered the scene. It happened in the same, 17th and 18th centuries, when celestial mechanics with its classical Platonist paradigma achieved its greatest triumphs. The origins of probability theory were inspired by games of chance like roulettes, lotteries, dices, urn schemata, etc. and probability values were simply defined by the ratio of successful or winning results relative to the total number of possible outcomes."

Financial, Macro and Micro Econometrics Using R, Volume 42, provides state-of-the-art information on important topics in econometrics, including multivariate GARCH, stochastic frontiers, fractional responses, specification testing and model selection, exogeneity testing, causal analysis and forecasting, GMM models, asset bubbles and crises, corporate investments, classification, forecasting, nonstandard problems, cointegration, financial market jumps and co-jumps, among other topics.

Sojourns and Extremes of Stochastic Processes is a research monograph in the area of probability theory. During the past thirty years Berman has made many contributions to the theory of the extreme values and sojourn times of the sample functions of broad classes of stochastic processes. These processes arise in theoretical and applied models, and are presented here in a unified exposition.

The prolonged boom in the US and European stock markets has led to increased interest in the mathematics of security markets, most notably in the theory of stochastic integration. This text gives a rigorous development of the theory of stochastic integration as it applies to the valuation of derivative securities. It includes all the tools necessary for readers to understand how the stochastic integral is constructed with respect to a general continuous martingale. The author develops the stochastic calculus from first principles, but at a relaxed pace that includes proofs that are detailed, but streamlined to applications to finance. The treatment requires minimal prerequisites-a basic knowledge of measure theoretic probability and Hilbert space theory-and devotes an entire chapter to application in finances, including the Black Scholes market, pricing contingent claims, the general market model, pricing of random payoffs, and interest rate derivatives. Continuous Stochastic Calculus with Application to Finance is your first opportunity to explore stochastic integration at a reasonable and practical mathematical level. It offers a treatment well balanced between aesthetic appeal, degree of generality, depth, and ease of reading.

This book covers the history and recent developments of stochastic computing. Stochastic computing (SC) was first introduced in the 1960s for logic circuit design, but its origin can be traced back to von Neumann's work on probabilistic logic. In SC, real numbers are encoded by random binary bit streams, and information is carried on the statistics of the binary streams. SC offers advantages such as hardware simplicity and fault tolerance. Its promise in data processing has been shown in applications including neural computation, decoding of error-correcting codes, image processing, spectral transforms and reliability analysis. There are three main parts to this book. The first part, comprising Chapters 1 and 2, provides a history of the technical developments in stochastic computing and a tutorial overview of the field for both novice and seasoned stochastic computing researchers. In the second part, comprising Chapters 3 to 8, we review both well-established and emerging design approaches for stochastic computing systems, with a focus on accuracy, correlation, sequence generation, and synthesis. The last part, comprising Chapters 9 and 10, provides insights into applications in machine learning and error-control coding.

Complex stochastic systems comprises a vast area of research, from modelling specific applications to model fitting, estimation procedures, and computing issues. The exponential growth in computing power over the last two decades has revolutionized statistical analysis and led to rapid developments and great progress in this emerging field. In Complex Stochastic Systems, leading researchers address various statistical aspects of the field, illustrated by some very concrete applications. A Primer on Markov Chain Monte Carlo by Peter J. Green provides a wide-ranging mixture of the mathematical and statistical ideas, enriched with concrete examples and more than 100 references. Causal Inference from Graphical Models by Steffen L. Lauritzen explores causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems, with focus on the effect of interventions in a given system. State Space and Hidden Markov Models by Hans R. Kunschshows the variety of applications of this concept to time series in engineering, biology, finance, and geophysics. Monte Carlo Methods on Genetic Structures by Elizabeth A. Thompson investigates special complex systems and gives a concise introduction to the relevant biological methodology. Renormalization of Interacting Diffusions by Frank den Hollander presents recent results on the large space-time behavior of infinite systems of interacting diffusions. Stein's Method for Epidemic Processes by Gesine Reinert investigates the mean field behavior of a general stochastic epidemic with explicit bounds. Individually, these articles provide authoritative, tutorial-style exposition and recent results from various subjects related to complex stochastic systems. Collectively, they link these separate areas of study to form the first comprehensive overview of this rapidly developing field.

Collecting information previously scattered throughout the vast literature, including the author's own research, Stochastic Relations: Foundations for Markov Transition Systems develops the theory of stochastic relations as a basis for Markov transition systems. After an introduction to the basic mathematical tools from topology, measure theory, and categories, the book examines the central topics of congruences and morphisms, applies these to the monoidal structure, and defines bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence within this framework. The author views developments from the general theory of coalgebras in the context of the subprobability functor. These tools show that bisimilarity and behavioral and logical equivalence are the same for general modal logics and for continuous time stochastic logic with and without a fixed point operator. With numerous problems and several case studies, this book is an invaluable study of an important aspect of computer science theory.

In this monograph the narrow topology on random probability measures on Polish spaces is investigated in a thorough and comprehensive way. As a special feature, no additional assumptions on the probability space in the background, such as completeness or a countable generated algebra, are made. One of the main results is a direct proof of the random analog of the Prohorov theorem, which is obtained without invoking an embedding of the Polish space into a compact space. Further, the narrow topology is examined and other natural topologies on random measures are compared. In addition, it is shown that the topology of convergence in law-which relates to the "statistical equilibrium"-and the narrow topology are incompatible. A brief section on random sets on Polish spaces provides the fundamentals of this theory. In a final section, the results are applied to random dynamical systems to obtain existence results for invariant measures on compact random sets, as well as uniformity results in the individual ergodic theorem. This clear and incisive volume is useful for graduate students and researchers in mathematical analysis and its applications.

This volume comprises selected papers presented at the 12th Winter School on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, which was held in Siegmundsburg, Germany, in March 2000. The contents include Backward Stochastic Differential Equations; Semilinear PDE and SPDE; Arbitrage Theory; Credit Derivatives and Models for Correlated Defaults; Three Intertwined Brownian Topics: Exponential Functionals, Winding Numbers and Local Times. A unique opportunity to read ideas from all the top experts on the subject, Stochastic Processes and Related Topics is intended for postgraduates and researchers working in this area of mathematics and provides a useful source of reference.

Stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces are motivated by the theory and analysis of stochastic processes and by applications such as stochastic control, population biology, and turbulence, where the analysis and control of such systems involves investigating their stability. While the theory of such equations is well established, the study of their stability properties has grown rapidly only in the past 20 years, and most results have remained scattered in journals and conference proceedings. This book offers a systematic presentation of the modern theory of the stability of stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces - particularly Hilbert spaces. The treatment includes a review of basic concepts and investigation of the stability theory of linear and nonlinear stochastic differential equations and stochastic functional differential equations in infinite dimensions. The final chapter explores topics and applications such as stochastic optimal control and feedback stabilization, stochastic reaction-diffusion, Navier-Stokes equations, and stochastic population dynamics. In recent years, this area of study has become the focus of increasing attention, and the relevant literature has expanded greatly. Stability of Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Differential Equations with Applications makes up-to-date material in this important field accessible even to newcomers and lays the foundation for future advances.

This book introduces the reader to Six Sigma, a problem-solving technique for reducing defects and variation in processes. The author uses DMAIC phases (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control) and a data-centric approach, leveraging applied statistics with Minitab (R). Readers are enabled to solve novel problems where there isn't an apparent root cause or solution identified. The author walks readers through an (imaginary) case study, explaining both the DMAIC approach and how to use Minitab in a practical way. The presentation includes data sets and instructions on how to analyze data in the context of Six Sigma using Minitab.

This book opens a novel dimension in the 50 year history of mathematical theory of "information" since the birth of Shannon theory. First of all, it introduces, in place of the traditional notion of entropy and mutual information, the completely new and highly unconventional approach of "information-spectrum" as a basic but powerful tool for constructing the general theory of information. Reconstructing step-by-step all the essential major topics in information theory from the viewpoint of such an "information-spectrum", this comprehensive work provides an accessible introduction to the new type of mathematical theory of information that focuses mainly on general nonstationary and /or nonergodic sources and channels, in clear contrast with the traditional theories of information. This book is a new non-traditional theoretical reference for communication professionals and statisticians specializing in information theory.

This textbook explores probability and stochastic processes at a level that does not require any prior knowledge except basic calculus. It presents the fundamental concepts in a step-by-step manner, and offers remarks and warnings for deeper insights. The chapters include basic examples, which are revisited as the new concepts are introduced. To aid learning, figures and diagrams are used to help readers grasp the concepts, and the solutions to the exercises and problems. Further, a table format is also used where relevant for better comparison of the ideas and formulae. The first part of the book introduces readers to the essentials of probability, including combinatorial analysis, conditional probability, and discrete and continuous random variable. The second part then covers fundamental stochastic processes, including point, counting, renewal and regenerative processes, the Poisson process, Markov chains, queuing models and reliability theory. Primarily intended for undergraduate engineering students, it is also useful for graduate-level students wanting to refresh their knowledge of the basics of probability and stochastic processes.

Functional Gaussian Approximation for Dependent Structures develops and analyses mathematical models for phenomena that evolve in time and influence each another. It provides a better understanding of the structure and asymptotic behaviour of stochastic processes. Two approaches are taken. Firstly, the authors present tools for dealing with the dependent structures used to obtain normal approximations. Secondly, they apply normal approximations to various examples. The main tools consist of inequalities for dependent sequences of random variables, leading to limit theorems, including the functional central limit theorem and functional moderate deviation principle. The results point out large classes of dependent random variables which satisfy invariance principles, making possible the statistical study of data coming from stochastic processes both with short and long memory. The dependence structures considered throughout the book include the traditional mixing structures, martingale-like structures, and weakly negatively dependent structures, which link the notion of mixing to the notions of association and negative dependence. Several applications are carefully selected to exhibit the importance of the theoretical results. They include random walks in random scenery and determinantal processes. In addition, due to their importance in analysing new data in economics, linear processes with dependent innovations will also be considered and analysed.

This monograph focuses on those stochastic quickest detection tasks in disorder problems that arise in the dynamical analysis of statistical data. These include quickest detection of randomly appearing targets, of spontaneously arising effects, and of arbitrage (in financial mathematics). There is also currently great interest in quickest detection methods for randomly occurring intrusions in information systems and in the design of defense methods against cyber-attacks. The author shows that the majority of quickest detection problems can be reformulated as optimal stopping problems where the stopping time is the moment the occurrence of disorder is signaled. Thus, considerable attention is devoted to the general theory of optimal stopping rules, and to its concrete problem-solving methods. The exposition covers both the discrete time case, which is in principle relatively simple and allows step-by-step considerations, and the continuous-time case, which often requires more technical machinery such as martingales, supermartingales, and stochastic integrals. There is a focus on the well-developed apparatus of Brownian motion, which enables the exact solution of many problems. The last chapter presents applications to financial markets. Researchers and graduate students interested in probability, decision theory and statistical sequential analysis will find this book useful.

Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-parameter martingales.

Major topics covered in Sequential Stochastic Optimization include:

• Fundamental notions, such as essential supremum, stopping points, accessibility, martingales and supermartingales indexed by INd
• Conditions which ensure the integrability of certain suprema of partial sums of arrays of independent random variables
• The general theory of optimal stopping for processes indexed by Ind
• Structural properties of information flows
• Sequential sampling and the theory of optimal sequential control
• Multi-armed bandits, Markov chains and optimal switching between random walks

Fractional Brownian Motion (FBM) is a very classical continuous self-similar Gaussian field with stationary increments. In 1940, some works of Kolmogorov on turbulence led him to introduce this quite natural extension of Brownian Motion, which, in contrast with the latter, has correlated increments. However, the denomination FBM is due to a very famous article by Mandelbrot and Van Ness, published in 1968. Not only in it, but also in several of his following works, Mandelbrot emphasized the importance of FBM as a model in several applied areas, and thus he made it to be known by a wide community. Therefore, FBM has been studied by many authors, and used in a lot of applications.In spite of the fact that FBM is a very useful model, it does not always fit to real data. This is the reason why, for at least two decades, there has been an increasing interest in the construction of new classes of random models extending it, which offer more flexibility. A paradigmatic example of them is the class of Multifractional Fields. Multifractional means that fractal properties of models, typically, roughness of paths and self-similarity of probability distributions, are locally allowed to change from place to place.In order to sharply determine path behavior of Multifractional Fields, a wavelet strategy, which can be considered to be new in the probabilistic framework, has been developed since the end of the 90's. It is somehow inspired by some rather non-standard methods, related to the fine study of Brownian Motion roughness, through its representation in the Faber-Schauder system. The main goal of the book is to present the motivations behind this wavelet strategy, and to explain how it can be applied to some classical examples of Multifractional Fields. The book also discusses some topics concerning them which are not directly related to the wavelet strategy.

This book is about discrete-time, time-homogeneous, Markov chains (Mes) and their ergodic behavior. To this end, most of the material is in fact about stable Mes, by which we mean Mes that admit an invariant probability measure. To state this more precisely and give an overview of the questions we shall be dealing with, we will first introduce some notation and terminology. Let (X,B) be a measurable space, and consider a X-valued Markov chain ~. = {~k' k = 0, 1, ... } with transition probability function (t.pJ.) P(x, B), i.e., P(x, B) := Prob (~k+1 E B I ~k = x) for each x E X, B E B, and k = 0,1, .... The Me ~. is said to be stable if there exists a probability measure (p.m.) /.l on B such that (*) VB EB. /.l(B) = Ix /.l(dx) P(x, B) If (*) holds then /.l is called an invariant p.m. for the Me ~. (or the t.p.f. P).

Random processes are one of the most powerful tools in the study and understanding of countless phenomena in natural and social sciences.The book is a complete medium-level introduction to the subject. The book is written in a clear and pedagogical manner but with enough rigor and scope that can appeal to both students and researchers.This book is addressed to advanced students and professional researchers in many branches of science where level crossings and extremes appear but with some particular emphasis on some applications in socio-economic systems.

The book is devoted to limit theorems for nonconventional sums and arrays. Asymptotic behavior of such sums were first studied in ergodic theory but recently it turned out that main limit theorems of probability theory, such as central, local and Poisson limit theorems can also be obtained for such expressions. In order to obtain sufficiently general local limit theorem, we develop also thermodynamic formalism type results for random complex operators, which is one of the novelties of the book.

Most of the natural and biological phenomena such as solute transport in porous media exhibit variability which can not be modeled by using deterministic approaches. There is evidence in natural phenomena to suggest that some of the observations can not be explained by using the models which give deterministic solutions. Stochastic processes have a rich repository of objects which can be used to express the randomness inherent in the system and the evolution of the system over time. The attractiveness of the stochastic differential equations (SDE) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) come from the fact that we can integrate the variability of the system along with the scientific knowledge pertaining to the system. One of the aims of this book is to explaim some useufl concepts in stochastic dynamics so that the scientists and engineers with a background in undergraduate differential calculus could appreciate the applicability and appropriateness of these developments in mathematics. The ideas are explained in an intuitive manner wherever possible with out compromising rigor.
The solute transport problem in porous media saturated with water had been used as a natural setting to discuss the approaches based on stochastic dynamics. The work is also motivated by the need to have more sophisticated mathematical and computational frameworks to model the variability one encounters in natural and industrial systems. This book presents the ideas, models and computational solutions pertaining to a single problem: stochastic flow of contaminant transport in the saturated porous media such as that we find in underground aquifers. In attempting to solve this problem using stochastic concepts, different ideas and new concepts have been explored, and mathematical and computational frameworks have been developed in the process. Some of these concepts, arguments and mathematical and computational constructs are discussed in an intuititve manner in this book.

We introduce the theory of chemical reaction networks and their relation to stochastic Petri nets - important ways of modeling population biology and many other fields. We explain how techniques from quantum mechanics can be used to study these models. This relies on a profound and still mysterious analogy between quantum theory and probability theory, which we explore in detail. We also give a tour of key results concerning chemical reaction networks and Petri nets.