'Et moi, ..., si j' avait su comment en revenir, One service mathematics has rendered the human race. It has put common sense back je n'y serais point aIle.' Jules Verne where it belongs, on the topmost shelf next to the dusty canister labelled 'discarded non- The series is divergent; therefore we may be sense'" able 10 do something with it. Eric T. Bell O. Heaviside Mathematics is a tool for thought. A highly necessary tool in a world where both feedback and non linearities abound_ Similarly, all kinds of parts of mathematics serve as tools for other parts and for other sciences. Applying a simple rewriting rule to the quote on the right above one finds such statements as: 'One service topology has rendered mathematical physics .. .'; 'One service logic has rendered com puter science .. .'; 'One service category theory has rendered mathematics .. .'. All arguably true. And all statements obtainable this way form part of the raison d'etre of this series."

The theory of probability began in the seventeenth century with attempts to calculate the odds of winning in certain games of chance. However, it was not until the middle of the twentieth century that mathematicians de veloped general techniques for maximizing the chances of beating a casino or winning against an intelligent opponent. These methods of finding op timal strategies for a player are at the heart of the modern theories of stochastic control and stochastic games. There are numerous applications to engineering and the social sciences, but the liveliest intuition still comes from gambling. The now classic work How to Gamble If You Must: Inequalities for Stochastic Processes by Dubins and Savage (1965) uses gambling termi nology and examples to develop an elegant, deep, and quite general theory of discrete-time stochastic control. A gambler "controls" the stochastic pro cess of his or her successive fortunes by choosing which games to play and what bets to make."

The material accumulated and presented in this volume can be ex plained easily. At the start of my graduate studies in the early 1950s, I Grenander's (1950) thesis, and was much attracted to the came across entire subject considered there. I then began preparing for the neces sary mathematics to appreciate and possibly make some contributions to the area. Thus after a decade of learning and some publications on the way, I wanted to write a modest monograph complementing Grenander's fundamental memoir. So I took a sabbatical leave from my teaching position at the Carnegie-Mellon University, encouraged by an Air Force Grant for the purpose, and followed by a couple of years more learning opportunity at the Institute for Advanced Study to complete the project. As I progressed, the plan grew larger needing a substantial background material which was made into an independent initial volume in (1979). In its preface I said: "My intension was to present the following material as the first part of a book treating the In ference Theory of stochastic processes, but the latter account has now receded to a distant future," namely for two more decades Meanwhile, a much enlarged second edition of that early work has appeared (1995), and now I am able to present the main part of the original plan."

This book focuses on the class of large-scale stochastic systems, which has dominated the attention of many academic and research groups. It discusses distributed-sensor networks, decentralized detection theory, and econometric models with integrated and decentralized policymakers.

This volume presents an extensive overview of all major modern trends in applications of probability and stochastic analysis. It will be a great source of inspiration for designing new algorithms, modeling procedures and experiments. Accessible to researchers, practitioners, as well as graduate and postgraduate students, this volume presents a variety of new tools, ideas and methodologies in the fields of optimization, physics, finance, probability, hydrodynamics, reliability, decision making, mathematical finance, mathematical physics and economics.

Contributions to this Work include those of selected speakers from the international conference entitled Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications III, held on September 10 14, 2012 at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine. The conference covered the following areas of research in probability theory and its applications: stochastic analysis, stochastic processes and fields, random matrices, optimization methods in probability, stochastic models of evolution systems, financial mathematics, risk processes and actuarial mathematics and information security."

The 1991 Seminar on Stochastic Processes was held at the University of California, Los Angeles, from March 23 through March 25, 1991. This was the eleventh in a series of annual meetings which provide researchers with the opportunity to discuss current work on stochastic processes in an informal and enjoyable atmosphere. Previous seminars were held at Northwestern University, Princeton University, the University of Florida, the University of Virginia, the University of California, San Diego, and the University of British Columbia. Following the successful format of previous years there were five invited lectures. These were given by M. Barlow, G. Lawler, P. March, D. Stroock, M. Talagrand. The enthusiasm and interest of the participants created a lively and stimulating atmosphere for the seminar. Some of the topics discussed are represented by the articles in this volume. P. J. Fitzsimmons T. M. Liggett S. C. Port Los Angeles, 1991 In Memory of Steven Orey M. CRANSTON The mathematical community has lost a cherished colleague with the passing of Steven Orey. This unique and thoughtful man has left those who knew him with many pleasant memories. He has also left us with important contributions in the development of the theory of Markov processes. As a friend and former student, I wish to take this chance to recall to those who know and introduce to those who do not a portion of his lifework.

The fundamental question of characterizing continuity and boundedness of Gaussian processes goes back to Kolmogorov. After contributions by R. Dudley and X. Fernique, it was solved by the author. This book provides an overview of "generic chaining," a completely natural variation on the ideas of Kolmogorov. It takes the reader from the first principles to the edge of current knowledge and to the open problems that remain in this domain.

The maximum principle and dynamic programming are the two most commonly used approaches in solving optimal control problems. These approaches have been developed independently. The theme of this book is to unify these two approaches, and to demonstrate that the viscosity solution theory provides the framework to unify them.

Stochastic Processes: General Theory starts with the fundamental existence theorem of Kolmogorov, together with several of its extensions to stochastic processes. It treats the function theoretical aspects of processes and includes an extended account of martingales and their generalizations. Various compositions of (quasi- or semi-)martingales and their integrals are given. Here the Bochner boundedness principle plays a unifying role: a unique feature of the book. Applications to higher order stochastic differential equations and their special features are presented in detail. Stochastic processes in a manifold and multiparameter stochastic analysis are also discussed. Each of the seven chapters includes complements, exercises and extensive references: many avenues of research are suggested. The book is a completely revised and enlarged version of the author's Stochastic Processes and Integration (Noordhoff, 1979). The new title reflects the content and generality of the extensive amount of new material. Audience: Suitable as a text/reference for second year graduate classes and seminars. A knowledge of real analysis, including Lebesgue integration, is a prerequisite.

This volume contains 20 refereed research or review papers presented at the five-day Third Seminar on Stochastic Analysis, Random Fields and Applications which took place at the Centro Stefano Franscini (Monte Verit ) in Ascona, Switzerland, from September 20 to 24, 1999. The seminar focused on three topics: fundamental aspects of stochastic analysis, physical modeling, and applications to financial engineering. The third topic was the subject of a mini-symposium on stochastic methods in financial models.

This monograph on fast stochastic simulation deals with methods of adaptive importance sampling (IS). The concept of IS is introduced and described in detail with several numerical examples in the context of rare event simulation. Adaptive simulation and system parameter optimization to achieve specified performance criteria are described. The techniques are applied to the analysis and design of radar CFAR (constant false alarm rate) detectors. Development of robust detection algorithms using ensemble - or E-CFAR processing is described. A second application treats the performance evaluation and parameter optimization of digital communication systems that cannot be handled analytically or even by using standard numerical techniques.

Environmental Data Analysis with MATLAB, Third Edition, is a new edition that expands fundamentally on the original with an expanded tutorial approach, more clear organization, new crib sheets, and problem sets providing a clear learning path for students and researchers working to analyze real data sets in the environmental sciences. The work teaches the basics of the underlying theory of data analysis and then reinforces that knowledge with carefully chosen, realistic scenarios, including case studies in each chapter. The new edition is expanded to include applications to Python, an open source software environment. Significant content in Environmental Data Analysis with MATLAB, Third Edition is devoted to teaching how the programs can be effectively used in an environmental data analysis setting. This new edition offers chapters that can both be used as self-contained resources or as a step-by-step guide for students, and is supplemented with data and scripts to demonstrate relevant use cases.

This monograph introduces methods for handling filtering and control problems in nonlinear stochastic systems arising from network-induced phenomena consequent on limited communication capacity. Such phenomena include communication delay, packet dropout, signal quantization or saturation, randomly occurring nonlinearities and randomly occurring uncertainties. The text is self-contained, beginning with an introduction to nonlinear stochastic systems, network-induced phenomena and filtering and control, moving through a collection of the latest research results which focuses on the three aspects of: * the state-of-the-art of nonlinear filtering and control; * recent advances in recursive filtering and sliding mode control; and * their potential for application in networked control systems, and concluding with some ideas for future research work. New concepts such as the randomly occurring uncertainty and the probability-constrained performance index are proposed to make the network models as realistic as possible. The power of combinations of such recent tools as the completing-the-square and sums-of-squares techniques, Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs matrix inequalities, difference linear matrix inequalities and parameter-dependent matrix inequalities is exploited in treating the mathematical and computational challenges arising from nonlinearity and stochasticity. Nonlinear Stochastic Systems with Network-Induced Phenomena establishes a unified framework of control and filtering which will be of value to academic researchers in bringing structure to problems associated with an important class of networked system and offering new means of solving them. The significance of the new concepts, models and methods presented for practical control engineering and signal processing will also make it a valuable reference for engineers dealing with nonlinear control and filtering problems.

The articles in this volume present the state of the art in a variety of areas of discrete probability, including random walks on finite and infinite graphs, random trees, renewal sequences, Stein's method for normal approximation and Kohonen-type self-organizing maps. This volume also focuses on discrete probability and its connections with the theory of algorithms. Classical topics in discrete mathematics are represented as are expositions that condense and make readable some recent work on Markov chains, potential theory and the second moment method. This volume is suitable for mathematicians and students.

In the last five years or so there has been an important renaissance in the area of (mathematical) modeling, identification and (stochastic) control. It was the purpose of the Advanced Study Institute of which the present volume constitutes the proceedings to review recent developments in this area with par ticular emphasis on identification and filtering and to do so in such a manner that the material is accessible to a wide variety of both embryo scientists and the various breeds of established researchers to whom identification, filtering, etc. are important (such as control engineers, time series analysts, econometricians, probabilists, mathematical geologists, and various kinds of pure and applied mathematicians; all of these were represented at the ASI). For these proceedings we have taken particular care to see to it that the material presented will be understandable for a quite diverse audience. To that end we have added a fifth tutorial section (besides the four presented at the meeting) and have also included an extensive introduction which explains in detail the main problem areas and themes of these proceedings and which outlines how the various contributions fit together to form a coherent, integrated whole. The prerequisites needed to understand the material in this volume are modest and most graduate students in e. g. mathematical systems theory, applied mathematics, econo metrics or control engineering will qualify."

This book presents in thirteen refereed survey articles an overview of modern activity in stochastic analysis, written by leading international experts. The topics addressed include stochastic fluid dynamics and regularization by noise of deterministic dynamical systems; stochastic partial differential equations driven by Gaussian or Levy noise, including the relationship between parabolic equations and particle systems, and wave equations in a geometric framework; Malliavin calculus and applications to stochastic numerics; stochastic integration in Banach spaces; porous media-type equations; stochastic deformations of classical mechanics and Feynman integrals and stochastic differential equations with reflection. The articles are based on short courses given at the Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli of the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Switzerland, from January to June 2012. They offer a valuable resource not only for specialists, but also for other researchers and Ph.D. students in the fields of stochastic analysis and mathematical physics. Contributors: S. Albeverio M. Arnaudon V. Bally V. Barbu H. Bessaih Z. Brzezniak K. Burdzy A.B. Cruzeiro F. Flandoli A. Kohatsu-Higa S. Mazzucchi C. Mueller J. van Neerven M. Ondrejat S. Peszat M. Veraar L. Weis J.-C. Zambrini

Traditionally, randomness and determinism have been viewed as being diametrically opposed, based on the idea that causality and determinism is complicated by "noise." Although recent research has suggested that noise can have a productive role, it still views noise as a separate entity. This work suggests that this not need to be so. In an informal presentation, instead, the problem is traced to traditional assumptions regarding dynamical equations and their need for unique solutions. If this requirement is relaxed, the equations admit for instability and stochasticity evolving from the dynamics itself. This allows for a decoupling from the "burden" of the past and provides insights into concepts such as predictability, irreversibility, adaptability, creativity and multi-choice behaviour. This reformulation is especially relevant for biological and social sciences whose need for flexibility a propos of environmental demands is important to understand: this suggests that many system models are based on randomness and nondeterminism complicated with a little bit of determinism to ultimately achieve concurrent flexibility and stability. As a result, the statistical perception of reality is seen as being a more productive tool than classical determinism. The book addresses scientists of all disciplines, with special emphasis at making the ideas more accessible to scientists and students not traditionally involved in the formal mathematics of the physical sciences. The implications may be of interest also to specialists in the philosophy of science.
-Presents the ideas in an informal language.
-Provides tools for exploring data for singularities.

Stochastic ordering is a fundamental guide for decision making under uncertainty. It is also an essential tool in the study of structural properties of complex stochastic systems. This reference text presents a comprehensive coverage of the various notions of stochastic orderings, their closure properties, and their applications. Some of these orderings are routinely used in many applications in economics, finance, insurance, management science, operations research, statistics, and various other fields of study, and the value of the other notions of stochastic orderings still needs to be explored further. This book is an ideal reference for anyone interested in decision making under uncertainty and interested in the analysis of complex stochastic systems. It is suitable as a text for advanced graduate course on stochastic ordering and applications.

This text offers a mathematically rigorous exposition of the basic theory of marked point processes developing randomly over time, and shows how this theory may be used to treat piecewise deterministic stochastic processes in continuous time. The point processes are constructed from scratch with detailed proofs and their distributions characterized using compensating measures and martingale structures. The second part of the book addresses applications of the just developed theory. This analysis of various models in applied statistics and probability includes examples and exercises in survival analysis, branching processes, ruin probabilities, sports (soccer), finance and risk management (arbitrage and portfolio trading strategies), and queueing theory. Graduate students and researchers interested in probabilistic modeling and its applications will find this text an excellent resource, requiring for mastery a solid foundation in probability theory, measure and integration, as well as some knowledge of stochastic processes and martingales. portions that are crucial and those that can be omitted by non-specialists, making the material more accessible to a wider cross-disciplinary audience.

Methods of reasoning lying at the heart of rational scientific inference are explored and applied in some 55 papers by contributors from industry, defense establishments, and academia, brought together under the sponsorship of the US Navy and several European and American chemical corporations. The

Harmonic maps are solutions to a natural geometrical variational prob lem. This notion grew out of essential notions in differential geometry, such as geodesics, minimal surfaces and harmonic functions. Harmonic maps are also closely related to holomorphic maps in several complex variables, to the theory of stochastic processes, to nonlinear field theory in theoretical physics, and to the theory of liquid crystals in materials science. During the past thirty years this subject has been developed extensively. The monograph is by no means intended to give a complete description of the theory of harmonic maps. For example, the book excludes a large part of the theory of harmonic maps from 2-dimensional domains, where the methods are quite different from those discussed here. The first chapter consists of introductory material. Several equivalent definitions of harmonic maps are described, and interesting examples are presented. Various important properties and formulas are derived. Among them are Bochner-type formula for the energy density and the second varia tional formula. This chapter serves not only as a basis for the later chapters, but also as a brief introduction to the theory. Chapter 2 is devoted to the conservation law of harmonic maps. Em phasis is placed on applications of conservation law to the mono tonicity formula and Liouville-type theorems."

For many practical problems, observations are not independent. In this book, limit behaviour of an important kind of dependent random variables, the so-called mixing random variables, is studied. Many profound results are given, which cover recent developments in this subject, such as basic properties of mixing variables, powerful probability and moment inequalities, weak convergence and strong convergence (approximation), limit behaviour of some statistics with a mixing sample, and many useful tools are provided. Audience: This volume will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the field of probability and statistics, whose work involves dependent data (variables).

This volume contains the contributions of the participants of the Sixth Oslo-Silivri Workshop on Stochastic Analysis, held in Geilo from July 29 to August 6, 1996. There are two main lectures * Stochastic Differential Equations with Memory, by S.E. A. Mohammed, * Backward SDE's and Viscosity Solutions of Second Order Semilinear PDE's, by E. Pardoux. The main lectures are presented at the beginning of the volume. There is also a review paper at the third place about the stochastic calculus of variations on Lie groups. The contributing papers vary from SPDEs to Non-Kolmogorov type probabilistic models. We would like to thank * VISTA, a research cooperation between Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters and Den Norske Stats Oljeselskap (Statoil), * CNRS, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, * The Department of Mathematics of the University of Oslo, * The Ecole Nationale Superieure des Telecommunications, for their financial support. L. Decreusefond J. Gjerde B. 0ksendal A.S. Ustunel PARTICIPANTS TO THE 6TH WORKSHOP ON STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS Vestlia H yfjellshotell, Geilo, Norway, July 28 -August 4, 1996. E-mail: [email protected] Aureli ALABERT Departament de Matematiques Laurent DECREUSEFOND Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona Ecole Nationale Superieure des Telecom- 08193-Bellaterra munications CATALONIA (Spain) Departement Reseaux E-mail: alabert@mat. uab.es 46, rue Barrault Halvard ARNTZEN 75634 Paris Cedex 13 Dept. of Mathematics FRANCE University of Oslo E-mail: [email protected] Box 1053 Blindern Laurent DENIS N-0316 Oslo C.M.I.

Markov processes represent a universal model for a large variety of real life random evolutions. The wide flow of new ideas, tools, methods and applications constantly pours into the ever-growing stream of research on Markov processes that rapidly spreads over new fields of natural and social sciences, creating new streamlined logical paths to its turbulent boundary. Even if a given process is not Markov, it can be often inserted into a larger Markov one (Markovianization procedure) by including the key historic parameters into the state space. This monograph gives a concise, but systematic and self-contained, exposition of the essentials of Markov processes, together with recent achievements, working from the "physical picture" - a formal pre-generator, and stressing the interplay between probabilistic (stochastic differential equations) and analytic (semigroups) tools. The book will be useful to students and researchers. Part I can be used for a one-semester course on Brownian motion, Levy and Markov processes, or on probabilistic methods for PDE. Part II mainly contains the author's research on Markov processes. From the contents: Tools from Probability and Analysis Brownian motion Markov processes and martingales SDE, DE and martingale problems Processes in Euclidean spaces Processes in domains with a boundary Heat kernels for stable-like processes Continuous-time random walks and fractional dynamics Complex chains and Feynman integral

The 1988 Seminar on Stochastic Processes was held at the University of Florida, Gainesville, March 3 through March 5, 1988. It was the eighth seminar in a continuing series of meetings which provide opportunities for researchers to discuss current work in stochastic processes in an informal and enjoyable atmosphere. Previous seminars were held at Princeton University, Northwestern University, the University of Florida and the University of Virginia. The participants' enthusiasm and interest have created stimulating and successful seminars. We thank those participants who have permitted us to publish their research in this volume. This year's invited participants included B. Atkinson, J. Azema, D. Bakry, P. Baxendale, J. Brooks, G. Brosamler, K. Burdzy, E. Cinlar, R. Darling, N. Dinculeanu, E. Dynkin, S. Evans, N. Falkner, P. Fitzsimmons, R. Getoor, J. Glover, V. Goodman, P. Hsu, J.-F. Le Gall, M. Liao, P. March, P. McGill, J. Mitro, T. Mountford, C. Mueller, A. Mukherjea, V. Papanicolaou, E. Perkins, M. Pinsky, L. Pitt, A. O. Pittenger, Z. Pop-Stojanovic, M. Rao, J. Rosen, T. Salisbury, C. Shih, M. Taksar, J. Taylor, S. J. Taylor, E. Toby, R. Williams, Wu Rong, and Z. Zhao. The seminar was made possible through the generous support of the Department of Mathematics, the Center for Applied Mathematics, the Division of Sponsored Research and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences of the University of Florida. We extend our thanks for local arrangements to our host, Zoran Pop-Stojanovic. 1. G.