This volume provides more evidence against the Random Walk Hypothesis and offers insights into market inefficiency through systematically trading exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The book is organized to answer the following three questions: Do ETF prices follow random walks? If not, what are some of the factors that impact their non-random walk behavior? How can investors take advantage of such price dynamics in trading ETFs?

This book exploits the classification of a class of linear bounded operators with rank-one self-commutators in terms of their spectral parameter, known as the principal function. The resulting dictionary between two dimensional planar shapes with a degree of shade and Hilbert space operators turns out to be illuminating and beneficial for both sides. An exponential transform, essentially a Riesz potential at critical exponent, is at the heart of this novel framework; its best rational approximants unveil a new class of complex orthogonal polynomials whose asymptotic distribution of zeros is thoroughly studied in the text. Connections with areas of potential theory, approximation theory in the complex domain and fluid mechanics are established. The text is addressed, with specific aims, at experts and beginners in a wide range of areas of current interest: potential theory, numerical linear algebra, operator theory, inverse problems, image and signal processing, approximation theory, mathematical physics.

This book provides a comprehensive and unified introduction to stochastic differential equations and related optimal control problems. The material is new and the presentation is reader-friendly. A major contribution of the book is the development of generalized Malliavin calculus in the framework of white noise analysis, based on chaos expansion representation of stochastic processes and its application for solving several classes of stochastic differential equations with singular data involving the main operators of Malliavin calculus. In addition, applications in optimal control and numerical approximations are discussed. The book is divided into four chapters. The first, entitled White Noise Analysis and Chaos Expansions, includes notation and provides the reader with the theoretical background needed to understand the subsequent chapters. In Chapter 2, Generalized Operators of Malliavin Calculus, the Malliavin derivative operator, the Skorokhod integral and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator are introduced in terms of chaos expansions. The main properties of the operators, which are known in the literature for the square integrable processes, are proven using the chaos expansion approach and extended for generalized and test stochastic processes. Chapter 3, Equations involving Malliavin Calculus operators, is devoted to the study of several types of stochastic differential equations that involve the operators of Malliavin calculus, introduced in the previous chapter. Fractional versions of these operators are also discussed. Finally, in Chapter 4, Applications and Numerical Approximations are discussed. Specifically, we consider the stochastic linear quadratic optimal control problem with different forms of noise disturbances, operator differential algebraic equations arising in fluid dynamics, stationary equations and fractional versions of the equations studied - applications never covered in the extant literature. Moreover, numerical validations of the method are provided for specific problems."

Taking readers with a basic knowledge of probability and real analysis to the frontiers of a very active research discipline, this textbook provides all the necessary background from functional analysis and the theory of PDEs. It covers the main types of equations (elliptic, hyperbolic and parabolic) and discusses different types of random forcing. The objective is to give the reader the necessary tools to understand the proofs of existing theorems about SPDEs (from other sources) and perhaps even to formulate and prove a few new ones. Most of the material could be covered in about 40 hours of lectures, as long as not too much time is spent on the general discussion of stochastic analysis in infinite dimensions. As the subject of SPDEs is currently making the transition from the research level to that of a graduate or even undergraduate course, the book attempts to present enough exercise material to fill potential exams and homework assignments. Exercises appear throughout and are usually directly connected to the material discussed at a particular place in the text. The questions usually ask to verify something, so that the reader already knows the answer and, if pressed for time, can move on. Accordingly, no solutions are provided, but there are often hints on how to proceed. The book will be of interest to everybody working in the area of stochastic analysis, from beginning graduate students to experts in the field.

The purpose of this volume is to give an up-to-date introduction to tensor valuations and their applications. Starting with classical results concerning scalar-valued valuations on the families of convex bodies and convex polytopes, it proceeds to the modern theory of tensor valuations. Product and Fourier-type transforms are introduced and various integral formulae are derived. New and well-known results are presented, together with generalizations in several directions, including extensions to the non-Euclidean setting and to non-convex sets. A variety of applications of tensor valuations to models in stochastic geometry, to local stereology and to imaging are also discussed.

This volume in the SpringerBriefs in Energy series offers a systematic review of unit commitment (UC) problems in electrical power generation. It updates texts written in the late 1990s and early 2000s by including the fundamentals of both UC and state-of-the-art modeling as well as solution algorithms and highlighting stochastic models and mixed-integer programming techniques. The UC problems are mostly formulated as mixed-integer linear programs, although there are many variants. A number of algorithms have been developed for, or applied to, UC problems, including dynamic programming, Lagrangian relaxation, general mixed-integer programming algorithms, and Benders decomposition. In addition the book discusses the recent trends in solving UC problems, especially stochastic programming models, and advanced techniques to handle large numbers of integer- decision variables due to scenario propagation

Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the gambler's ruin chain, branching processes, symmetric random walks, and queueing systems. The third, more research-oriented part of the text, discusses special stochastic processes of interest in physics, biology, and sociology. Additional emphasis is placed on minimal models that have been used historically to develop new mathematical techniques in the field of stochastic processes: the logistic growth process, the Wright -Fisher model, Kingman's coalescent, percolation models, the contact process, and the voter model. Further treatment of the material explains how these special processes are connected to each other from a modeling perspective as well as their simulation capabilities in C and Matlab (TM).

The objective of this book is to introduce the elements of stochastic processes in a rather concise manner where we present the two most important parts - Markov chains and stochastic analysis. The readers are led directly to the core of the main topics to be treated in the context. Further details and additional materials are left to a section containing abundant exercises for further reading and studying.In the part on Markov chains, the focus is on the ergodicity. By using the minimal nonnegative solution method, we deal with the recurrence and various types of ergodicity. This is done step by step, from finite state spaces to denumerable state spaces, and from discrete time to continuous time. The methods of proofs adopt modern techniques, such as coupling and duality methods. Some very new results are included, such as the estimate of the spectral gap. The structure and proofs in the first part are rather different from other existing textbooks on Markov chains.In the part on stochastic analysis, we cover the martingale theory and Brownian motions, the stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations with emphasis on one dimension, and the multidimensional stochastic integral and stochastic equation based on semimartingales. We introduce three important topics here: the Feynman-Kac formula, random time transform and Girsanov transform. As an essential application of the probability theory in classical mathematics, we also deal with the famous Brunn-Minkowski inequality in convex geometry.This book also features modern probability theory that is used in different fields, such as MCMC, or even deterministic areas: convex geometry and number theory. It provides a new and direct routine for students going through the classical Markov chains to the modern stochastic analysis.

The mathematical implications of personal beliefs and values in science and commerce
Amid a worldwide resurgence of interest in subjectivist statistical method, this book offers a fresh look at the role of personal judgments in statistical analysis. Frank Lad demonstrates how philosophical attention to meaning provides a sensible assessment of the prospects and procedures of empirical inferential learning.
Operational Subjective Statistical Methods offers a systematic investigation of Bruno de Finetti's theory of probability and logic of uncertainty, which recognizes probability as the measure of personal uncertainty at the heart of its mathematical presentation. It identifies de Finetti's "fundamental theorem of coherent provision" as the unifying structure of probabilistic logic, and highlights the judgment of exchangeability rather than causal independence as the key probabilistic component of statistical inference.
Broad in scope, yet firmly grounded in mathematical detail, this text/reference
Invites readers to address the subjective personalist meaning of probability as motivating the mathematical construction
* Contains numerous examples and problems, including computing problems using Matlab, assuming no background in Matlab
* Explains how to use the material in three distinct sequential courses in math and statistics, as well as in courses at the graduate level in applied fields
* Provides an introductory basis for understanding more complex structures of statistical analysis

Complete with fifty illustrations, Operational Subjective Statistical Methods makes an intriguing discipline accessible to professionals, students, and the interested general reader. It contains a wealth of teaching and research material, and offers profound insight into the relationship between philosophy, faith, and scientific method.

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the theory of stochastic calculus and some of its applications. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises with complete solutions. After explaining the basic elements of probability, the author introduces more advanced topics such as Brownian motion, martingales and Markov processes. The core of the book covers stochastic calculus, including stochastic differential equations, the relationship to partial differential equations, numerical methods and simulation, as well as applications of stochastic processes to finance. The final chapter provides detailed solutions to all exercises, in some cases presenting various solution techniques together with a discussion of advantages and drawbacks of the methods used. Stochastic Calculus will be particularly useful to advanced undergraduate and graduate students wishing to acquire a solid understanding of the subject through the theory and exercises. Including full mathematical statements and rigorous proofs, this book is completely self-contained and suitable for lecture courses as well as self-study.

This book presents a treatise on the theory and modeling of second-order stationary processes, including an exposition on selected application areas that are important in the engineering and applied sciences. The foundational issues regarding stationary processes dealt with in the beginning of the book have a long history, starting in the 1940s with the work of Kolmogorov, Wiener, Cramér and his students, in particular Wold, and have since been refined and complemented by many others. Problems concerning the filtering and modeling of stationary random signals and systems have also been addressed and studied, fostered by the advent of modern digital computers, since the fundamental work of R.E. Kalman in the early 1960s. The book offers a unified and logically consistent view of the subject based on simple ideas from Hilbert space geometry and coordinate-free thinking. In this framework, the concepts of stochastic state space and state space modeling, based on the notion of the conditional independence of past and future flows of the relevant signals, are revealed to be fundamentally unifying ideas. The book, based on over 30 years of original research, represents a valuable contribution that will inform the fields of stochastic modeling, estimation, system identification, and time series analysis for decades to come. It also provides the mathematical tools needed to grasp and analyze the structures of algorithms in stochastic systems theory.

This monograph introduces methods for handling filtering and control problems in nonlinear stochastic systems arising from network-induced phenomena consequent on limited communication capacity. Such phenomena include communication delay, packet dropout, signal quantization or saturation, randomly occurring nonlinearities and randomly occurring uncertainties. The text is self-contained, beginning with an introduction to nonlinear stochastic systems, network-induced phenomena and filtering and control, moving through a collection of the latest research results which focuses on the three aspects of: * the state-of-the-art of nonlinear filtering and control; * recent advances in recursive filtering and sliding mode control; and * their potential for application in networked control systems, and concluding with some ideas for future research work. New concepts such as the randomly occurring uncertainty and the probability-constrained performance index are proposed to make the network models as realistic as possible. The power of combinations of such recent tools as the completing-the-square and sums-of-squares techniques, Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs matrix inequalities, difference linear matrix inequalities and parameter-dependent matrix inequalities is exploited in treating the mathematical and computational challenges arising from nonlinearity and stochasticity. Nonlinear Stochastic Systems with Network-Induced Phenomena establishes a unified framework of control and filtering which will be of value to academic researchers in bringing structure to problems associated with an important class of networked system and offering new means of solving them. The significance of the new concepts, models and methods presented for practical control engineering and signal processing will also make it a valuable reference for engineers dealing with nonlinear control and filtering problems.

The dynamics of population systems cannot be understood within the framework of ordinary differential equations, which assume that the number of interacting agents is infinite. With recent advances in ecology, biochemistry and genetics it is becoming increasingly clear that real systems are in fact subject to a great deal of noise. Relevant examples include social insects competing for resources, molecules undergoing chemical reactions in a cell and a pool of genomes subject to evolution. When the population size is small, novel macroscopic phenomena can arise, which can be analyzed using the theory of stochastic processes. This thesis is centered on two unsolved problems in population dynamics: the symmetry breaking observed in foraging populations and the robustness of spatial patterns. We argue that these problems can be resolved with the help of two novel concepts: noise-induced bistable states and stochastic patterns.

This book examines optimization problems that in practice involve random model parameters. It details the computation of robust optimal solutions, i.e., optimal solutions that are insensitive with respect to random parameter variations, where appropriate deterministic substitute problems are needed. Based on the probability distribution of the random data and using decision theoretical concepts, optimization problems under stochastic uncertainty are converted into appropriate deterministic substitute problems. Due to the probabilities and expectations involved, the book also shows how to apply approximative solution techniques. Several deterministic and stochastic approximation methods are provided: Taylor expansion methods, regression and response surface methods (RSM), probability inequalities, multiple linearization of survival/failure domains, discretization methods, convex approximation/deterministic descent directions/efficient points, stochastic approximation and gradient procedures and differentiation formulas for probabilities and expectations. In the third edition, this book further develops stochastic optimization methods. In particular, it now shows how to apply stochastic optimization methods to the approximate solution of important concrete problems arising in engineering, economics and operations research.

This volume presents an extensive overview of all major modern trends in applications of probability and stochastic analysis. It will be a great source of inspiration for designing new algorithms, modeling procedures and experiments. Accessible to researchers, practitioners, as well as graduate and postgraduate students, this volume presents a variety of new tools, ideas and methodologies in the fields of optimization, physics, finance, probability, hydrodynamics, reliability, decision making, mathematical finance, mathematical physics and economics. Contributions to this Work include those of selected speakers from the international conference entitled "Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications III," held on September 10 -14, 2012 at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine. The conference covered the following areas of research in probability theory and its applications: stochastic analysis, stochastic processes and fields, random matrices, optimization methods in probability, stochastic models of evolution systems, financial mathematics, risk processes and actuarial mathematics and information security.

Considering Poisson random measures as the driving sources for stochastic (partial) differential equations allows us to incorporate jumps and to model sudden, unexpected phenomena. By using such equations the present book introduces a new method for modeling the states of complex systems perturbed by random sources over time, such as interest rates in financial markets or temperature distributions in a specific region. It studies properties of the solutions of the stochastic equations, observing the long-term behavior and the sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the initial data. The authors consider an integration theory of measurable and adapted processes in appropriate Banach spaces as well as the non-Gaussian case, whereas most of the literature only focuses on predictable settings in Hilbert spaces. The book is intended for graduate students and researchers in stochastic (partial) differential equations, mathematical finance and non-linear filtering and assumes a knowledge of the required integration theory, existence and uniqueness results and stability theory. The results will be of particular interest to natural scientists and the finance community. Readers should ideally be familiar with stochastic processes and probability theory in general, as well as functional analysis and in particular the theory of operator semigroups.

This book, which is based on several courses of lectures given by the author at the Independent University of Moscow, is devoted to Sobolev-type spaces and boundary value problems for linear elliptic partial differential equations. Its main focus is on problems in non-smooth (Lipschitz) domains for strongly elliptic systems. The author, who is a prominent expert in the theory of linear partial differential equations, spectral theory and pseudodifferential operators, has included his own very recent findings in the present book. The book is well suited as a modern graduate textbook, utilizing a thorough and clear format that strikes a good balance between the choice of material and the style of exposition. It can be used both as an introduction to recent advances in elliptic equations and boundary value problems and as a valuable survey and reference work. It also includes a good deal of new and extremely useful material not available in standard textbooks to date. Graduate and post-graduate students, as well as specialists working in the fields of partial differential equations, functional analysis, operator theory and mathematical physics will find this book particularly valuable.

In some cases, certain coherent structures can exist in stochastic dynamic systems almost in every particular realization of random parameters describing these systems. Dynamic localization in one-dimensional dynamic systems, vortexgenesis (vortex production) in hydrodynamic flows, and phenomenon of clustering of various fields in random media (i.e., appearance of small regions with enhanced content of the field against the nearly vanishing background of this field in the remaining portion of space) are examples of such structure formation. The general methodology presented in Volume 1 is used in Volume 2 Coherent Phenomena in Stochastic Dynamic Systems to expound the theory of these phenomena in some specific fields of stochastic science, among which are hydrodynamics, magnetohydrodynamics, acoustics, optics, and radiophysics. The material of this volume includes particle and field clustering in the cases of scalar (density field) and vector (magnetic field) passive tracers in a random velocity field, dynamic localization of plane waves in layered random media, as well as monochromatic wave propagation and caustic structure formation in random media in terms of the scalar parabolic equation.

This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology. A wide range of biological topics are covered including normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, stochastic calcium signaling, molecular motors, intracellular transport, signal transduction, bacterial chemotaxis, robustness in gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, cell polarization, polymerization, cellular length control, and branching processes. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic process - Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, master equations and jump Markov processes, diffusion approximations and the system size expansion, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, reaction-diffusion equations, exclusion processes, WKB methods, martingales and branching processes, stochastic calculus, and numerical methods. This text is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers working in mathematical biology and applied mathematicians interested in stochastic modeling. Applied probabilists and theoretical physicists should also find it of interest. It assumes no prior background in statistical physics and introduces concepts in stochastic processes via motivating biological applications. The book is highly illustrated and contains a large number of examples and exercises that further develop the models and ideas in the body of the text. It is based on a course that the author has taught at the University of Utah for many years.

Offering a viable solution to the long-standing problem of estimating the abundance of rare, clustered populations, adaptive sampling designs are rapidly gaining prominence in the natural and social sciences as well as in other fields with inherently difficult sampling situations. In marked contrast to conventional sampling designs, in which the entire sample of units to be observed is fixed prior to the survey, adaptive sampling strategies allow for increased sampling intensity depending upon observations made during the survey. For example, in a survey to assess the abundance of a rare animal species, neighboring sites may be added to the sample whenever the species is encountered during the survey. In an epidemiological survey of a contagious or genetically linked disease, sampling intensity may be increased whenever prevalence of the disease is encountered.

Written by two acknowledged experts in this emerging field, this book offers researchers their first comprehensive introduction to adaptive sampling. An ideal reference for statisticians conducting research in survey designs and spatial statistics as well as researchers working in the environmental, ecological, public health, and biomedical sciences.

Adaptive Sampling:

• Provides a comprehensive, fully integrated introduction to adaptive sampling theory and practice
• Describes recent research findings
• Introduces readers to a wide range of adaptive sampling strategies and techniques
• Includes numerous real-world examples from environmental pollution studies, surveys of rare animal and plant species, studies of contagious diseases, marketing surveys, mineral and fossil-fuel assessments, and more

This volume highlights the main results of the research performed within the network "Harmonic and Complex Analysis and its Applications" (HCAA), which was a five-year (2007-2012) European Science Foundation Programme intended to explore and to strengthen the bridge between two scientific communities: analysts with broad backgrounds in complex and harmonic analysis and mathematical physics, and specialists in physics and applied sciences. It coordinated actions for advancing harmonic and complex analysis and for expanding its application to challenging scientific problems. Particular topics considered by this Programme included conformal and quasiconformal mappings, potential theory, Banach spaces of analytic functions and their applications to the problems of fluid mechanics, conformal field theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian mechanics, and signal processing. This book is a collection of surveys written as a result of activities of the Programme and will be interesting and useful for professionals and novices in analysis and mathematical physics, as well as for graduate students. Browsing the volume, the reader will undoubtedly notice that, as the scope of the Programme is rather broad, there are many interrelations between the various contributions, which can be regarded as different facets of a common theme.

This book studies some of the groundbreaking advances that have been made regarding analytic capacity and its relationship to rectifiability in the decade 1995-2005. The Cauchy transform plays a fundamental role in this area and is accordingly one of the main subjects covered. Another important topic, which may be of independent interest for many analysts, is the so-called non-homogeneous Calderon-Zygmund theory, the development of which has been largely motivated by the problems arising in connection with analytic capacity. The Painleve problem, which was first posed around 1900, consists in finding a description of the removable singularities for bounded analytic functions in metric and geometric terms. Analytic capacity is a key tool in the study of this problem. In the 1960s Vitushkin conjectured that the removable sets which have finite length coincide with those which are purely unrectifiable. Moreover, because of the applications to the theory of uniform rational approximation, he posed the question as to whether analytic capacity is semiadditive. This work presents full proofs of Vitushkin's conjecture and of the semiadditivity of analytic capacity, both of which remained open problems until very recently. Other related questions are also discussed, such as the relationship between rectifiability and the existence of principal values for the Cauchy transforms and other singular integrals. The book is largely self-contained and should be accessible for graduate students in analysis, as well as a valuable resource for researchers.

The concept of a system as an entity in its own right has emerged with increasing force in the past few decades in, for example, the areas of electrical and control engineering, economics, ecology, urban structures, automaton theory, operational research and industry. The more definite concept of a large-scale system is implicit in these applications, but is particularly evident in fields such as the study of communication networks, computer networks and neural networks. The Wiley-Interscience Series in Systems and Optimization has been established to serve the needs of researchers in these rapidly developing fields. It is intended for works concerned with developments in quantitative systems theory, applications of such theory in areas of interest, or associated methodology. Of related interest Stochastic Programming Peter Kall, University of ZA1/4rich, Switzerland and Stein W. Wallace, University of Trondheim, Norway Stochastic Programming is the first textbook to provide a thorough and self-contained introduction to the subject. Carefully written to cover all necessary background material from both linear and non-linear programming, as well as probability theory, the book draws together the methods and techniques previously described in disparate sources. After introducing the terms and modelling issues when randomness is introduced in a deterministic mathematical programming model, the authors cover decision trees and dynamic programming, recourse problems, probabilistic constraints, preprocessing and network problems. Exercises are provided at the end of each chapter. Throughout, the emphasis is on the appropriate use of the techniques, rather than on the underlying mathematicalproofs and theories, making the book ideal for researchers and students in mathematical programming and operations research who wish to develop their skills in stochastic programming.

A unified methodology for categorizing various complex objects is presented in this book. Through probability theory, novel asymptotically minimax criteria suitable for practical applications in imaging and data analysis are examined including the special cases such as the Jensen-Shannon divergence and the probabilistic neural network. An optimal approximate nearest neighbor search algorithm, which allows faster classification of databases is featured. Rough set theory, sequential analysis and granular computing are used to improve performance of the hierarchical classifiers. Practical examples in face identification (including deep neural networks), isolated commands recognition in voice control system and classification of visemes captured by the Kinect depth camera are included. This approach creates fast and accurate search procedures by using exact probability densities of applied dissimilarity measures. This book can be used as a guide for independent study and as supplementary material for a technically oriented graduate course in intelligent systems and data mining. Students and researchers interested in the theoretical and practical aspects of intelligent classification systems will find answers to: - Why conventional implementation of the naive Bayesian approach does not work well in image classification? - How to deal with insufficient performance of hierarchical classification systems? - Is it possible to prevent an exhaustive search of the nearest neighbor in a database?

This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.