By the year 2000, world trade in merchandise goods and commercial services will probably exceed $8 trillion, or $2 trillion more than in 1995. By that date, the World Trade Organization (WTO) may well have more than 130 member countries that account for about 95 percent of world trade. The millennium also will mark an important milestone for the WTO: new WTO negotiations on agriculture and services will be under way with the goal of achieving the progressive liberalization of remaining barriers to trade. This monograph explores how WTO members should prepare for these negotiations. It discusses the Singapore ministerial meeting and its importance in starting WTO deliberations, examines how the agenda of such talks should be crafted to meet these challenges to the trading system, proposes initiatives to achieve further trade reforms and to extend WTO obligations to other trade-related aspects of government policy, and explores whether such new initiatives are feasible-that is, whether there is sufficient political support for new trade reforms in the major trading nations. The text concludes with some recommendations on how the new WTO initiative could be launched and implemented over the next five years.

The negotiation of international trade agreements has become the issue of the moment. With Brexit, a change in administration in the United States, a fragile economic recovery in the Eurozone and China facing a slowdown in its growth, nothing is more critical to the future global economy than the terms of trade between its largest economic blocs. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is Europe's most controversial trade agreement ever. Aimed at reducing regulatory barriers between the United States and the EU, it was expected to be fairly straightforward given strong business support on both sides of the Atlantic. It has not been so. The negotiations have dragged on far longer than anticipated and now look set to fail altogether. Yet the process of its negotiation, the terms of the potential agreement and its sticking points provide valuable lessons for policy-makers and academics tasked to bring future trade deals and arrangements to successful conclusions. Alasdair Young offers a penetrating analysis of the complexities of the TTIP negotiations and explores why they have proved so difficult to conclude, what motivates the different parties concerned and what implications there are for politics and policy. Young throws light on the limits of the transatlantic cooperation and the processes of globalization and teases out the implications for the UK in its post-Brexit trade negotiations and for other nations now facing a more protectionist stance from the United States.

This comprehensive study finds that tariffs and quantitative import restrictions in place in 1990 cost American consumers about $70 billion, more than 1 percent of GDP. The net national welfare loss, after deducting tariff revenues and transfers to domestic producers, was $11 billion, of which perhaps 70 percent was captured by foreign producers as quota rents. Nearly half of the consumer costs are accounted for by 21 highly protected sectors, and more than a third, $24 billion, are attributable to textiles and apparel alone. The cost to consumers of "special" protection aside from textiles and apparel dropped sharply in the 1980s, from $15 billion in 1984 to $6 billion in 1990. If it is ratified, the Uruguay Round will result in a further large reduction in these costs, particularly in textiles and apparel. Still, the annual consumer costs per American job "saved" by "special" protection range from $100,000 to over $1 million and average $170,000. Consumers thus pay over six times the average annual compensation of manufacturing workers to preserve each job. In terms of net national welfare, the cost per protected job is about $54,000. This figure far exceeds the cost per worker of the most generous adjustment program entailing income support, retraining, and relocation. This study will be indispensable to public and private sector decision makers and analysts concerned about the very high costs and small benefits of US import barriers. Teachers will find this book an engrossing way to introduce students to the cost of protection calculations that government economists and trade negotiators frequently make.

Trade experts from around the world discuss challenges confronting the World Trade Organization (WTO) as it charts its course for the years ahead. The authors offer recommendations to deal with important issues such as investment, competition and antidumping policy, environment and trade, labor standards, and Chinese accession to the WTO. Analysis of the implementation of the Uruguay Round accords, the breadth and scope of remaining barriers to trade that could be the subject of new liberalization efforts, the compatibility or inconsistency of regional and multilateral initiatives, and the political support in major trading countries for new WTO negotiations are also discussed. The overview and conclusions also appear in a separate monograph by Jeffrey J. Schott. Jeffrey J. Schott joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 1983 and is a senior fellow working on international trade policy and economic sanctions. During his tenure at the Institute, Schott was also a visiting lecturer at Princeton University (1994) and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University (1986-88). He was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1982-83) and an official of the US Treasury Department (1974-82) in international trade and energy policy. During the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations, he was a member of the US delegation that negotiated the GATT Subsidies Code. Since January 2003, he has been a member of the Trade and Environment Policy Advisory Committee of the US government. He is also a member of the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy.

On 31 July 2003, the Senate and, on July 24, the House passed H.R.2739 (United States-Singapore Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act) which is to implement the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The FTA would, with a phase-in period, eliminate tariffs on all goods traded between the United States and Singapore, cover trade in services, and protect intellectual property rights. The agreement has received support from the business community and consumer organisations but has been criticised by labour and some environmental interests. Some of the specific concerns raised deal with the restrictions on penalties for unresolvable disputes over labour and environmental issues, the Integrated Sourcing Initiative, potential capital controls, temporary visas, and access for U.S. exports of chewing gum. Since Singapore is a relatively small economy, the economic effects of the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, by themselves, are not likely to be great. The debate over implementation of the FTA is falling between business and free trade interests who would benefit from more liberalised trade, particularly in services, and labour or anti-globalisation interests who oppose more FTA's because of the overall impact of imports on jobs and the general effects of globalisation on income distribution, certain jobs, and the environment. Specific provisions of the agreement also have generated debate. This book discusses the problems and issues that the Free Trade Agreement has brought up.

Despite the disruption of the multilateral trade talks at Seattle in December 1999, the work of the World Trade Organization (WTO) continues. The trade and investment issues that have been outstanding since the Seattle events are explored in this far reaching book. The distinguished contributors combine several analytical approaches for a comprehensive assessment of the trends, problems and opportunities demanding attention in international trade negotiations.The authors discuss the principle items on the agenda for a renewed round of WTO talks, and also examine issues concerning the treatment of foreign direct investment, urging trade policymakers to adopt measures that will enhance flows of such investment, as these contribute to trade expansion. US, European and Japanese interests and perspectives are considered. The authors believe that cooperative management of international trade and investment issues could introduce greater harmony in the world trading system and overcome fears about the disruptive consequences of increased market openness. The self appointed roles of Non Government Organizations (NGOs) are examined, with emphasis on the primary responsibilities of governments as representatives of their nations. By bringing together the extensive results of research by economists, international management experts and political scientists, this book will be of immense worth to trade policymakers, policy research institutes, consulting firms, and academic communities. Of particular value will be the volume's discussions of international competition policy problems.

Trade negotiations are complex interactive processes that bring a combination of existing trade law, the pleadings of special interests and economic theory together in the give and take of compromise, bluff and strategic alliances. Trade disputes involving food and other agricultural products - controversial subjects such as genetically modified foods and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease - are the subject of newspaper headlines almost daily. As developing countries demand improved access to European and US markets for their products, international trade has moved into a new era and is now at the heart of trade negotiations. Economic Analysis for International Trade Negotiations provides an analytical framework in which to examine the complex economic issues which arise in international trade negotiations. This framework is developed using examples arising from current contentious issues in the international trade in agricultural products including market access, subsidies, non-tariff barriers, health regulations and biotechnology. The volume concludes with a discussion on the future of trade. Providing a link between economic theory and the WTO, this comprehensive volume will be of great interest to academics specialising in international trade, international relations, agri-business and international business.

The rapid emergence of China as a major industrial power poses a complex challenge for global resource markets. Backed by the Chinese government, Chinese companies have been acquiring equity stakes in natural resource companies, extending loans to mining and petroleum investors, and writing long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals. These activities have aroused concern that China might be "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining "preferential access" to available output, and extending "control" over the world's extractive industries. On the demand side, Chinese appetite for vast amounts of energy and minerals puts tremendous strain on the international supply system. On the supply side, Chinese efforts to procure raw materials can either exacerbate or help solve the problems of high demand.Evidence from the 16 largest Chinese natural resource procurement arrangements shows that Chinese efforts-like Japanese deployments of capital and purchase agreements in the late 1970s through the 1980s-fall predominantly into categories that help expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Investigation of smaller projects indicates the 16 largest do not suffer from selection bias. However, Chinese attempts to exercise control over mining of rare earth elements may constitute a significant exception. The investigative focus of this analysis is deliberately narrow and precise, assessing the impact of Chinese resource procurement on the structure of the global supply base. The broader policy discussion in the concluding chapter raises other separate important issues, including the impact of Chinese resource procurement on rogue states, on authoritarian leadership, on civil wars, on corrupt payments and the deterioration of governance standards, and on environmental damage. Such effects may make patterns of Chinese resource procurement objectionable, on grounds quite apart from the debate about possible "control" of access on the part of China and Chinese companies.

The global economic and financial crisis has awakened protectionist sentiments around the world, and policymakers have failed to actively seek trade liberalization. In light of this, some have proposed abandoning the Doha Round and starting over with a new agenda. Figuring Out the Doha Round argues that this is far from the time to drop the Doha Round and that it is now more important than ever to sustain political support for the rules-based multilateral trade system.This important new study recommends modest increments in market access commitments by G-20 countries beyond tariff and subsidy cuts in agriculture and nonagricultural market access (NAMA), and policy reforms in customs procedures and related areas that slash red tape and cut transactions costs for exporting and importing goods and services. With additional effort by the G-20 countries, WTO countries can put together a Doha package that is both ambitious and balanced between the interests of developed and developing countries. The study finds that following these recommendations can lead to a world GDP gain of almost $300 billion a year.

"The Evolution of the Trade Regime" offers a comprehensive political-economic history of the development of the world's multilateral trade institutions, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). While other books confine themselves to describing contemporary GATT/WTO legal rules or analyzing their economic logic, this is the first to explain the logic and development behind these rules.

The book begins by examining the institutions' rules, principles, practices, and norms from their genesis in the early postwar period to the present. It evaluates the extent to which changes in these institutional attributes have helped maintain or rebuild domestic constituencies for open markets.

The book considers these questions by looking at the political, legal, and economic foundations of the trade regime from many angles. The authors conclude that throughout most of GATT/WTO history, power politics fundamentally shaped the creation and evolution of the GATT/WTO system. Yet in recent years, many aspects of the trade regime have failed to keep pace with shifts in underlying material interests and ideas, and the challenges presented by expanding membership and preferential trade agreements.

NAFTA entered into force in 1994 after a bitter Congressional debate. But NAFTA in operation has proved no less controversial than NAFTA before ratification, for both supporters and opponents of trade liberalization have cited experience with the agreement to justify their positions. To provide a factual basis for this ongoing debate, the authors will evaluate NAFTA's performance over the first seven years, comparing actual experience with both the objectives of the agreement's supporters and the charges of its critics. They will then examine future challenges and opportunities in the trade and investment relationships among the three partner countries and the broader implications for new trade initiatives throughout the hemisphere. Chapter 1 will describe trade, investment, and macroeconomic developments under NAFTA, beginning inauspiciously with the Mexican economic crisis of 1994 but moving on to impressive growth in trilateral trade and Mexican GDP. Chapter 2 will trace the implementation of NAFTA's dispute settlement provisions and the progress to date in implementing reforms. Chapter 3 will distill and update the findings in the authors? recent book NAFTA and the Environment: Seven Years Later (*) and recommend how to improve the performance of NAFTA's institutions in addressing environmental problems. In Chapter 4 the authors undertake a similar assessment of the operations of the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation and the impact of NAFTA on employment and wages in the region. Chapters 5 and 6 will examine integration in the North American auto and energy markets. The final chapter will look forward and focus on the challenges facing North American economic integrationon important issues such as emigration, environment, energy, and exchange rates.

This book brings together members of the former WTO Director General's advisory group which was formed to provide him with expert advice before and after the Doha Ministerial Conference. Nine experts explore issues which are pertinent to the ongoing progress in negotiations, and their chapters are brought together with an introduction and conclusion. Key challenges which are explored include the divide between developed and developing countries, and the demand for increased transparency. Other experts write on sustainable development, corruption and labour, and the call for greater flexibility in the unanimity rule of the dispute settement mechanism. Finally, consideration is given to the impact of both China's accession and the enlargment of the EU. All in all, this volume offers an excellent summary of key issues facing the WTO as it moves forward. It should prove essential reading for trade negotiators and scholars concerned with the post-Cancoun agenda.

There is growing consensus among international trade negotiators and policymakers that a prime area for future multilateral discussion is competition policy. Competition policy includes antitrust policy (including merger regulation and control) but is often extended to include international trade measures and other policies that affect the structure, conduct, and performance of individual industries. This study includes country studies of competition policy in Western Europe, North America, and the Far East (with a focus on Japan) in the light of increasingly globalized activities of business firms. Areas where there are major differences in philosophy, policy, or practice are identified, with emphasis on those differences that could lead to economic costs and international friction. Alternatives for eliminating these costs and frictions are discussed, including unilateral policy changes, bilateral or multilateral harmonization of policies, and creation of new international regimes to supplement or replace national or regional regimes.

The Mexican peso crisis struck in late December 1994, coinciding with a new Mexican administration and the end of the first year of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The crisis poignantly highlighted the success and the inadequacy of the treaty -- success in the expansion of trade and capital flows, inadequacy in institutional capacity. The Canadian, Mexican, and US governments defined the agreement so narrowly that they failed to devise a mechanism that could monitor, anticipate, plan, or even respond to such a serious problem. The new president of Mexico, Vincente Fox Quesada, has boldly proposed transforming the free trade area into a common market like Europe's. This has evoked lukewarm responses from the Bush and Chretien administrations, which have not yet developed ways to cope with the new problems stemming from accelerated social and economic integration or to take advantage of North America's opportunities.

In this visionary study, Robert A. Pastor seizes Fox's idea and maps out the paths toward making it a reality. He analyzes NAFTA's successes and shortcomings, extracts lessons from the European Union's 40 years of reducing disparities between rich and poor countries, and proposes ways that NAFTA can adapt and incorporate those lessons. The centerpiece of the book is a detailed proposal for new institutions and "North American policies, " including plans for infrastructure and transportation, immigration and customs, a unified currency, and projects aimed to lift the poorer regions. The author addresses issues of sovereignty and national interest and concludes with a look ahead toward a broader Free Trade Area of the Americas.

This book is the first topropose a detailed approach to a North American Community -- different from the European Common Market but drawing lessons from its experience. It will be of considerable interest to policymakers in the region as well as researchers and students of international political economy, world trade, and foreign affairs.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a big deal in the making. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations at an impasse, the TPP negotiations have taken center stage as the most significant trade initiative of the 21st century. As of December 2012, negotiators have made extensive progress in 15 negotiating rounds since the talks began in March 2010, though hard work remains to finish the deal in the coming year or so. Despite this effort, however, the TPP is not well understood. In part, the reason lies in the dynamism of the TPP initiative. Unlike other free trade pacts, the growing membership as the talks have proceeded, and the broad range, complexity, and novelty of the issues on the agenda have made it difficult to track the substantive detail and progress of the talks. This Policy Analysis aims to remedy this problem by providing a reader's guide to the TPP initiative. It first assesses how much the TPP countries are alike and like-minded in their pursuit of a comprehensive trade deal. It then examines the current status of the talks, the major substantive sticking points, and the implications of Canada and Mexico joining the talks as well as prospective membership of other countries. The Policy Analysis then looks ahead to how the TPP could advance economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and the implications for trade relations with China.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries has generated the most intensive political debate about the role of trade in the United States in a generation. The TPP is one of the broadest and most progressive free trade agreements since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The essays in this Policy Analysis provide estimates of the TPP's benefits and costs and analyze more than 20 issues in the agreement, including environmental and labor standards, tariff schedules, investment and competition policy, intellectual property, ecommerce, services and financial services, government procurement, dispute settlement, and agriculture. Through extensive analysis of the TPP text, PIIE scholars present an indispensable and detailed "reader's guide" that also sheds light on the agreement's merits and shortcomings.

This report provides an analysis of the rise of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and its implications for Asia and the Pacific. Prepared jointly by ESCAP and UNCTAD, it reviews the costs and benefits associated with such measures from a sustainable development perspective, and identifies good practices to ensure that they serve their legitimate social or environmental purpose while not unnecessarily and negatively affecting trade and investment. The report focuses on the rise of NTMs and why they matter for sustainable development. It delves on the impact of NTMs in Asia and the Pacific, explores their relationship to international standards and discusses streamlining NTMs for Sustainable Development.

In Donald J. Trump and China John F. Copper examines President Trump’s views of China that developed before and after he entered office. As a businessman and as a witness to US politics and foreign policy, Trump realized China was the most important country in the world to the United States. He also recognized that one of the key difficulties in American trade policy was the imbalance between the US and China. Copper argues that Trump blamed policy makers for the disparity and was determined to rectify the imbalance. President Trump undertook formulating a new China policy in spite of nonsupporters in the Democratic Party, the media, academia, and Hollywood. Donald Trump accepted China’s rise as an economic power and felt he could negotiate with President Xi to construct a positive relationship that would benefit both countries, save the global financial system, curb nuclear proliferation, and save the environment. Ultimately, Copper asserts that Trump knew a constructive relationship with China would be challenging, however he also understood that this is the nature of big power politics and strategic negotiations and realism would ensure peace between these two powerful countries.

Despite troubled trade negotiations, global trade and trade policy will thrive in the twenty-first century, but with a bow to the past. Is the multilateral trading order of the twentieth century a historical artifact? Was the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995 the high point of multilateral cooperation on trade? This new volume, edited by Bernard M. Hoekman and Ernesto Zedillo, assesses the relevance of the WTO in the context of the rise of China and the United States' turn toward unilateral protectionism. The contributors adopt a historical perspective to discuss changes in global trade policy trends, adducing lessons from the past to help understand current trade tensions. Topics include responses to U.S. protectionism under the Trump administration, the policy dimensions of trade in services and the rise of the digital economy, how to strengthen the WTO to better negotiate new rules of the game and adjudicate disputes, managing China's integration into the global trade system, and the implications of global value chains for economic development policies. By reflecting on past episodes of protectionism and how they were resolved, Trade in the 21st Century provides both context and guidance on how trade challenges can be addressed in the coming decades.

One of the unique aspects of the WTO as an international organization is that it authorizes members to retaliate against violations by raising tariffs. These authorizations have become increasingly common and increasingly controversial. In this analysis of the retaliation system, Robert Lawrence considers the guiding principles that govern responses to WTO violations, examines how these principles are implemented in practice, and considers options for reform.

What are the choices the Asia-Pacific community will face if it proceeds farther down the path of developing preferential regional trading arrangements? Fragmentation of the region into preferential trading arrangements on a bilateral or subregional basis promises relatively little economic gain and considerable risk of increased trade conflict. Larger preferential trading blocs, spanning the whole of East Asia, the Western Pacific, or the APEC membership, offer greater potential economic benefits but also face formidable political obstacles.

In this study, Scollay and Gilbert weigh the economic consequences of the increased use of preferential trading arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region, whether these develop on the basis of trans-Pacific cooperation or solely within the East Asian or Western Pacific subregions. They evaluate the economic effects of both the existing proposals for new bilateral and multilateral agreements and of more far-reaching developments involving the creation of a substantial trading bloc or blocs in the region. Comparisons between the economic effects of establishing such bloc(s) in the region and the effects of achieving APEC's Bogor goals on the basis of "open regionalism" suggest that the latter approach continues to offer a worthwhile alternative. The study demonstrates that the benefits of global free trade dominate those available from the establishment of any combination of major blocs or from APEC's "open regionalism."

China and Taiwan have built one of the most intertwined and important economic relationships in the world, and yet that relationship is not mutually open, compliant with World Trade Organization norms, or even fully institutionalized. What's more, despite massive trade and investment flows, the boundary between the two is a serious flashpoint for potential conflict. But leaders in Beijing and Taipei have committed to normalize and deepen their economic intercourse and open a new post-Cold War era in their relationship. While the political significance of this gambit has captured attention worldwide, the scope of opening intended and the bilateral, regional, and global effects likely to ensue are as yet poorly understood. This volume attempts to remedy that uncertainty with careful modeling combined with a qualitative assessment of the implications of the cross-strait economic opening now agreed in an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The study explores the implications for Taiwan and China, for their neighbors, and for the United States if this undertaking is fully implemented by 2020.

In this conference volume, distinguished economists and trade policymakers address the US initiatives to enter into free trade negotiations with a broad range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Western Hemisphere, and Africa. The sheer number of these initiatives is unprecedented and has provoked major policy questions concerning US interests in the negotiations, the setting of priorities among the many contenders for concluding free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the objectives of those trading partners, and the implications that these agreements could have for broader initiatives such as the Doha Round in the World Trade Organization and the Free Trade Area of the Americas. The papers in the volume were presented during a conference on FTAs and US trade policy, sponsored by the Institute in May 2003. The editor, Jeffrey Schott, summarizes the policy implications drawn from the conference papers and discussions, which are organized around several topics: the conceptual case for FTAs and how they have worked in the past; what FTAs imply for the broader global system; the specific agreements that are already being pursued (Australia, Central America, Morocco, southern Africa) or considered (ASEAN, Brazil, Egypt, Korea, and Taiwan). The volume includes a technical appendix with results of GTAP and gravity model simulations of the trade and welfare effects of the prospective agreements.