Classes of socio-technical hazards allow a characterization of the risk in technology innovation and clarify the mechanisms underpinning emergent technological risk. Emerging Technological Risk provides an interdisciplinary account of risk in socio-technical systems including hazards which highlight: * How technological risk crosses organizational boundaries, * How technological trajectories and evolution develop from resolving tensions emerging between social aspects of organisations and technologies and * How social behaviour shapes, and is shaped by, technology. Addressing an audience from a range of academic and professional backgrounds, Emerging Technological Risk is a key source for those who wish to benefit from a detail and methodical exposure to multiple perspectives on technological risk. By providing a synthesis of recent work on risk that captures the complex mechanisms that characterize the emergence of risk in technology innovation, Emerging Technological Risk bridges contributions from many disciplines in order to sustain a fruitful debate. Emerging Technological Risk is one of a series of books developed by the Dependability Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

In Decision Modelling And Information Systems: The Information Value Chain the authors explain the interrelationships between the decision support, decision modelling, and information systems. The authors borrow from Porter's value chain concept originally set out in the organizational context and apply it to a corporate IS context. Thus data, information and knowledge is seen to be the progressive value added process leading to business intelligence. The book captures key issues that are of central interest to decision support researchers, professionals, and students. The book sets out an interdisciplinary and contemporary view of Decision Support System (DSS).

The first two parts of the book focus on the interdisciplinary decision support framework, in which mathematical programming (optimization) is taken as the inference engine. The role of business analytics and its relationship with recent developments in organisational theory, decision modelling, information systems and information technology are considered in depth. Part three of the book includes a carefully chosen selection of invited contributions from internationally-known researchers. These contributions are thought-provoking and cover key decision modelling and information systems issues.

These chapters include: Arthur Geoffrion on restoring transparency to computational solutions, Bill Inmon on the concept of the corporate information factory, Louis Ma and Efraim Turban on strategic information systems, and Erik Thomsen on information impact and its relationship to the value of information technology.

The final part of the book covers contemporary developments in the related area of business intelligence considered within an organizational context. The topics cover computing delivered across the web, management decision-making, and socio-economic challenges that lie ahead. It is now well accepted that globalisation and the impact of digital economy are profound; and the role of e-business and the delivery of decision models (business analytics) across the net lead to a challenging business environment. In this dynamic setting, decision support is one of the few interdisciplinary frameworks that can be rapidly adopted and deployed to so that businesses can survive and prosper by meeting these new challenges.

This book provides a thorough development of the powerful methods of heavy traffic analysis and approximations with applications to a wide variety of stochastic (e.g. queueing and communication) networks, for both controlled and uncontrolled systems. The approximating models are reflected stochastic differential equations. The analytical and numerical methods yield considerable simplifications and insights and good approximations to both path properties and optimal controls under broad conditions on the data and structure. The general theory is developed, with possibly state dependent parameters, and specialized to many different cases of practical interest. Control problems in telecommunications and applications to scheduling, admissions control, polling, and elsewhere are treated. The necessary probability background is reviewed, including a detailed survey of reflected stochastic differential equations, weak convergence theory, methods for characterizing limit processes, and ergodic problems.

The Cold War Era left the major participants, the United States and the former Soviet Union (FSU), with large legacies in terms of both contamination and potential accidents. Facility contamination and environmental degradation, as well as the accident vulnerable facilities and equipment, are a result of weapons development, testing, and production. Although the countries face similar issues from similar activities, important differences in waste management practices make the potential environmental and health risks of more immediate concern in the FSU and Eastern Europe. In the West, most nuclear and chemical waste is stored in known contained locations, while in the East, much of the equivalent material is unconfined, contaminating the environment. In the past decade, the U.S. started to address and remediate these Cold War legacies. Costs have been very high, and the projected cost estimates for total cleanup are still increasing. Currently in Russia, the resources for starting such major activities continue to be unavailable."

Problems with high stakes, involving human perceptions and judgements, and whose resolutions have long-term repercussions, call for a rational approach to their solution. Strategic Decision Making provides an effective, formal methodology that gives assistance to such strategic level decision making problems. Focusing on applying the AHP to decision-making problems in engineering, Strategic Decision Making explores the three main endeavours of human existence: business, defence and governance. Many years of successfully applying Strategic Decision Making in these domains have created extensive results covering many complex planning, resource, allocation and priority setting problems throughout industry and business. Case studies drawn from years of successful, practical application experience. Discusses applications of decision making for real life problems. Worked examples and solutions to problems throughout. The reader will gain comprehensive exposure to the extent of assistance that a formal methodology, such as AHP, can provide to the decision maker in evolving decisions in complex and varied domains. Decision makers, in business and industry around the world, will find this valuable for practical use as a working tool.

This book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). This edition includes new chapters providing a detailed treatment of scenario logic and probabilistic models for revealing bribes. It also contains clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index, as well as more than a hundred illustrations and tables which motivate the presentation.

The present book fmds its roots in the International Conference on Methods and Applications of Multiple Criteria Decision Making held in Mons in May 1997. A small number of contributions to that conference were selected via a refereeing procedure and retained authors were requested to include in their final version their more recent results. This explains why some papers differ significantly from the original presentation. The introductory paper of Raynaud addresses the long range forecasts in Multiple Criteria Decision Making on the basis of a Delphi process that was run before and during the congress. In a second part, the French author explains how he and some of his partners could find the proof of an important conjecture : the iteration of a strongly monotonic choice function is not a strongly monotonic ranking function. The second part of the book covers methodological aspects of decision theory. The contribution of Bouyssou and Pirlot concerns the reformulation of classical conjoint measurement models that induce a complete and transitive preference binary relation on the set of alternatives which seem to be unrealistic when decision makers are asked to compare objects evaluated on several attributes. The authors propose to consider non transitive, non complete and non additive decomposable conjoint models. They define properties that characterize such models.

Introduction This book includes terms of reference and offers an augmented volume of relevant work initiated within the comprehensive concept of "Knowledge Management and Risk Governance." The latter stood for the initial title of an ad-hoc meeting held in Ascona, Switzerland, organized by the Technological Risk Management Unit of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) and the KOVERS Centre of Excellence in Risk and Safety Sciences of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich. Background Risk governance, in addition to the continuous interest of researchers, has recently attracted the attention of policy-makers and the media and the concern of the public. New and emerging risks in various fields and a number of risk-related issues increased the public interest and prompted for a new framework in dealing with risks. The Conference on Science and Governance organized by the European Commission in October 2000 is one of the international forums addressing this issue. Other recent events such as the establishment of the International Risk Governance Council outline the importance of the governance concept in relation to that of risk management (see www.irgc.org). At the same time noticeable progress has been made in Information Technologies and Decision Support, passing from the process of information PREFACE xvi to the process of knowledge. In this context new tools and methods became available, whose application in risk management may be beneficial.

This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

The book focuses on applications of belief functions to business decisions. Section I introduces the intuitive, conceptual and historical development of belief functions. Three different interpretations (the marginally correct approximation, the qualitative model, and the quantitative model) of belief functions are investigated, and rough set theory and structured query language (SQL) are used to express belief function semantics. Section II presents applications of belief functions in information systems and auditing. Included are discussions on how a belief-function framework provides a more efficient and effective audit methodology and also the appropriateness of belief functions to represent uncertainties in audit evidence. The third section deals with applications of belief functions to mergers and acquisitions; financial analysis of engineering enterprises; forecast demand for mobile satellite services; modeling financial portfolios; and economics.

Information we receive from and create together with our social networks is becoming increasingly important. Social information has a great impact on our information behaviour and there are many possible angles and layers in studying social aspects in information science. This book presents some of these angles. Social Information Research, co-edited by Gunilla Widen and Kim Holmberg communicates current research looking into different aspects of social information as part of information behaviour research. There is a special emphasis on the new innovations supporting contemporary information behavior and the social media context within which it can sit. As a concept, social information has been studied in biology, psychology and sociology among other disciplines. This book is relevant for various actors in the library and information science field and will be useful for researchers, educators, and practitioners while coordinating empirical research on social information and providing an overview of some of the present research about social information.

Gallhofer and Saris examine the collective choice processes in different decision-making units leading to World Wars I and II as well as the Cuban Missile Crisis, colonial wars, and to major foreign policy decisions of a European government after World War II. In the unit relating to the European government, they find strong evidence for consensual decision-making. But when disagreements occurred among the participants, alternative procedures were employed, such as postponements in order to search for additional information, shifts from argumentation to find a compromise, and change from consensus to majority decision-making. How quickly these shifts were made depended on the group norms.

This book provides a theoretical framework to understand how different foreign-policy decision-making units or groups arrive at a collective choice. The qualitative and quantitative studies presented here are based on written records and deal with the choice process of four different decision-making units in situations that pertain to important foreign policy decisions. Germany's decision-making process under Hitler to initiate World War II exemplifies a group with a leader who is insensitive to advice, making the decisions himself and using the group only for acclamation. Kennedy's decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis is very different, as it shows a leader sensitive to advice where the group has the task of presenting different options and their consequences. The Austro-Hungarian cabinet's decision to initiate World War I exemplifies a homogeneous group with a dissenter, although it arrived at a collective decision quite quickly using persuasion, compromise, and some coercion. The bulk of the study deals with a heterogeneous unit in a great variety of decision situations, because most Western European governments are of this type. Where there is extreme conflict and time pressure, consensual decision-making is abandoned and a majority choice is hammered out.

As the first systematic documented study of collective decision-making, as it pertains to different decision units, this book will be of considerable importance to scholars and researchers investigating the decision-making process in government and international affairs.

Water resources, both in terms of water quality and water quantity, are of critical importance in planning for sustainable development in Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as in other parts of the world. This NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW), entitled "Risk Assessment as a Tool for Water Resources Decision-Making in Central Asia", was conducted on September 23-25, 2002 in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The ARW addressed methods and approaches by which risk assessment methodology that has been developed in the United States, Europe and elsewhere can be applied to environmental and water resource problems in Central Asia. The stated goals of the ARWwere: * to assess the existing state of knowledge in the context of potential applications of risk assessment tools to water resources and other environmental issues in Central Asia; * to identify research gaps and directions for future research in the area of water resources which may be addressed through the application of risk assessment tools; * to promote closer working relationships between the scientists and technical experts from Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as the scientists and technical experts from the United States and Europe. Based on historical experiences of Central Asian scientists and their colleagues in other parts of the world, there is a demonstrated need in the region to provide education, training and technical assistance on environmental decision-making tools, including risk assessment.

That risk communication ranks high on the policymaking agenda is beyond discussion today. The field is a point of intersection of social communication, practical management and policy making. It covers such diverse activities as to inform and educate the public about risk, and risk management in order to influence attitudes and behaviour, to act in situations of emergency or crises, to aid in decision-making and to assist in conflict resolution. Communication has grown into a major concern in current risk governance based on network co-ordinated management of public affairs conducted by authorities and companies and is recognized as a key component in the government of risk. This is especially salient in policy fields relating to environmental planning and resource management, urban planning, chemical and food regulation, or infrastructure planning, development and maintenance. This book explores risk communication research with a focus on new theoretical perspectives, research findings, and applied goals. It reflects on a broad range of innovative theoretical perspectives, methodological approaches and empirical areas. This book was published as a special issue of the Journal of Risk Research.

The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

The 'Precautionary Principle' has sparked the central controversy over European and U.S. risk regulation. The Reality of Precaution is the most comprehensive study to go beyond precaution as an abstract principle and test its reality in practice. This groundbreaking resource combines detailed case studies of a wide array of risks to health, safety, environment and security; a broad quantitative analysis; and cross-cutting chapters on politics, law, and perceptions. The authors rebut the rhetoric of conflicting European and American approaches to risk, and show that the reality has been the selective application of precaution to particular risks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as a constructive exchange of policy ideas toward 'better regulation.' The book offers a new view of precaution, regulatory reform, comparative analysis, and transatlantic relations.

The risk process commonly used in the corporate world to deal with risks may be suitable for non-catastrophic events, but not for extreme events. By analyzing a series of past disasters and the relevant 'lessons learned', this books proposes a series of prescriptive measures to cope with future disasters.

Although interest in Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) continues to grow rapidly in a wide range of disciplines, students, planners, managers, and the research community have lacked a book that covers the fundamentals of SDSS along with the advanced design concepts required for building SDSS. Filling this need, Spatial Decision Support Systems: Principles and Practices provides a comprehensive examination of the various aspects of SDSS evolution, components, architecture, and implementation. It integrates research from a variety of disciplines, including the geosciences, to supply a complete overview of SDSS technologies and their application from an interdisciplinary perspective. This groundbreaking reference provides thorough coverage of the roots of SDSS. It explains the core principles of SDSS, how to use them in various decision making contexts, and how to design and develop them using readily available enabling technologies and commercial tools. The book consists of four major parts, each addressing different topic areas in SDSS: 1. Presents an introduction to SDSS and the evolution of SDSS 2. Covers the essential and optional components of SDSS 3. Focuses on the design and implementation of SDSS 4. Reviews SDSS applications from various domains and disciplines -- investigating current challenges and future directions The text includes numerous detailed case studies, example applications, and methods for tailoring SDSS to your work environment. It also integrates sample code segments throughout. Addressing the technical and organizational challenges that affect the success or failure of SDSS, the book concludes by considering future directions of this rapidly emerging field of study.