Containing contributions from well-respected international researchers into decision making, the book examines the nature of the psychological processes underlying decision making, and addresses a range of topics including the role of emotions, coping with uncertainty, time pressure, and confidence in decisions. "Decision Making" first places the process approach to decision research in a historical and theoretical context, providing a critical evaluation of its principal research methods. The contributors then consider various influences upon decision making, risk and uncertainty; a final section examines time pressure, the effects of past decisions, and post-decision processes. Decision making is regarded as an interaction between the decision maker, problem and context, and is thus placed in a social environment.

This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance, and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios are imbued with "affect." Positive and negative emotions warp investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis. Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of security, potential, and aspiration.

Explores SMS as it is implemented in aviation based on examples from several countries and regions, namely the UK, USA, and Australia. Presents a socio-historical analysis of how SMSs emerged in high-risk industries. Provides insights to explain the existing limitations of SMS. Proposes new avenues to reach beyond the limitations of SMS. Discusses the COVID-19 pandemic within the framework of risk analysis.

State of the art risk management techniques and practices supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that "risk management" is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. * Covers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting * Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics * Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio Providing the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit is a groundbreaking work of economic theory, distinguishing between risk, which is by nature measurable and quantifiable, and uncertainty, which can be neither be measured nor quantified. We begin with an analysis of the functions of profit, risk and uncertainty in the economy. Frank H. Knight introduces his work with a discussion on profit and how there are conflicts about its nature between various economic theorists. As the title implies, the author's chief concern is the interplay between making a profit, incurring risk, and determining if there is uncertainty. Risks are different from uncertainty in that they can be measured and protected against. For example a location chosen for a factory or farm may have a measured risk of flooding in a given year. Businesses, insurers and investors alike can be made aware of this, and behave according to the quantified risk.

Intangible, invisible and worth trillions, risk is everywhere. Its quantification and management are key to the success and failure of individuals, businesses and governments. Whether you're an interested observer or pursuing a career in risk, this book delves into the complex and multi-faceted work that actuaries undertake to quantify, manage and commodify risk-supporting our society and servicing a range of multi-billion-dollar industries. Starting at the most basic level, this book introduces key concepts in actuarial science, insurance and pensions. Through case studies, explanations and mathematical examples, it fosters an understanding of current industry practice. This book celebrates the long history of actuarial science and poses the problems facing actuaries in the future, exploring complex global risks including climate change, aging populations, healthcare models and pandemic epidemiology from an actuarial perspective. It gives practical advice for new and potential actuaries on how to identify an area of work to go into, how best to navigate (and pass!) actuarial exams and how to develop your skills post-qualification. A Risky Business illuminates how actuaries are central to society as we know it, revealing what they do and how they do it. It is the essential primer on actuarial science.

This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments of product design. It discusses how business and government can work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on environmental studies for engineering and applied science students.

The completely updated, final edition of the global bestseller - one of the most influential books of the 21st century 'Few books can be said to have changed the world, but Nudge did. The Final Edition is marvellous: funny, useful, and wise' Daniel Kahneman Nudge has transformed the way individuals, companies and governments look at the world - and in the process has become one of the most important books of the twenty-first century. This completely updated edition offers a wealth of new insights for fans and newcomers alike - about COVID-19, diet, personal finance, retirement savings, medical care, organ donation, and climate change. Every day we make decisions: about the things we buy or the meals we eat; about the investments we make and the time we spend; about our health and that of the planet. Unfortunately, we often choose badly. We are all susceptible to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions that make us poorer, less healthy and less happy. And, as Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein show, no choice is ever presented to us in a neutral way. But by knowing how people think, we can make it easier for them to choose what is best for themselves, for their families and for society. With brilliant insight and wonderful levity, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how best to nudge us in the right directions, without ever restricting our freedom of choice.

This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

How do educators build High Reliability Schools (HRS) and boost academic achievement? By implementing interdependent systems of operation and performance assessment for student-centered learning. A critical commitment to becoming an HRS is the PLC at Work(TM) process of collaborative learning and teaching. This user-friendly teaching resource focuses on: (1) a safe and collaborative culture, (2) effective teaching in every classroom, (3) a guaranteed and viable curriculum, (4) standards-referenced reporting of student progress (standards-based grading), and (5) a competency-based system. Marzano, Warrick, Rains, and DuFour will help you: Increase school effectiveness through a focus on student-centered learning and the implementation of research-based leading indicators of operation. Monitor effective practices through the use of lagging indicators and quick data sources. Explore the three big ideas associated with the PLC at Work(TM) process to implement student-centered learning, collaborative teaching strategies, and data-driven instruction. Engage in periodic reflection on effective school leadership and instructional coaching practices. Understand how to balance and achieve school and district goals using data to improve students' academic achievement and college- and career-readiness skills. Contents: Foreword Introduction Chapter 1: High Reliability Organizations and School Leadership Chapter 2: Safe and Collaborative Culture Chapter 3: Effective Teaching in Every Classroom Chapter 4: Guaranteed and Viable Curriculum Chapter 5: Standards-Referenced Reporting Chapter 6: Competency-Based Education Chapter 7: District Leadership in High Reliability Schools Appendix References and Resources Index

A prominent scholar once noted that lotteries in politics and society-to break vote ties, assign students to schools, draft people into the military, select juries-are "at first thought absurd, and at second thought obvious." Lotteries have been part of politics since the Greek and Roman times, and they are used frequently in American politics today. When there is a two-to-two vote tie for prospective school board members, officials will often resort to flipping a coin (as happened recently in California). And in military drafts, the conventional wisdom is that random selection is far more just than non-lottery drafts. Northerners rioted against the perceived injustice of the non-random draft during the Civil War, and Americans by and large believed that student deferments subverted the justice of the draft during the Vietnam War. Over the years, people who study and practice politics have devoted considerable effort to thinking about the legitimacy of lotteries and whether they are just or not under certain circumstances. Yet they have really only focused on lotteries on a case-by-case basis, and no one has ever developed a substantial and comprehensive political theory of lotteries. In The Luck of the Draw, Peter Stone does just that. Examining the wide range of arguments for and against lotteries, Stone comes to the startling conclusion that lotteries have only one crucial effect relevant to decision-making: they have the "sanitizing effect" of preventing decisions from being made on the basis of reasons. Stone readily admits that this rationale might sound absurd to us, but contends that in many instances it is vital for people to make decisions without any reasoned rationale to compel them. Sometimes, justice can only be carried out through random selection-a fundamental principle of the practice of lottery that Stone comes to call "The Just Lottery Rule." By developing innovative ways for interpreting this pervasive form of political practice, Stone provides us with a foundation for understanding how to best make use of lottery when making political decisions both large and small.

Critical thinking requires a deep understanding of the topic at hand and the ability to look at content from diverse, and often unfamiliar, perspectives. Critical thinkers engage with material in innovative and creative ways to analyze, synthesize and assess it in order to reach their own informed conclusions. Critical Thinking: From Theory to Classroom Practice invites readers to revisit their pedagogy to promote this type of inquiry. Scholars and practitioners from several content areas introduce several examples of instructional strategies, classroom practices, and projects at multiple grade levels. Their experiences come together to highlight practical ways to foster students' critical thinking skills and encourage them to engage in learning in new ways.

This volume offers new, convincing empirical evidence on topical risk- and risk management-related issues in diverse settings, using an interdisciplinary approach. The authors advance compelling arguments, firmly anchored to well-accepted theoretical frameworks, while adopting either qualitative or quantitative research methodologies. The book presents interviews and surveys with risk managers to gather insights on risk management and risk disclosure in practice. Additionally, the book collects and analyzes information contained in public reports to capture risk disclosure and perceptions on risk management impacts on companies' internal organization. It sheds light on financial and market values to understand the effect of risk management on actual and perceived firm's performance, respectively. Further, it examines the impacts of risk and risk management on society and the economy. The book improves awareness and advances knowledge on the complex and changeable risk and risk management fields of study. It interweaves among topical, up-to-date issues, peculiar, under-investigated contexts, and differentiated, complementary viewpoints on the same themes. Therefore, the book is a must-read for scholars and researchers, as well as practitioners and policy makers, interested in a better understanding of risk and risk management studies in different fields.

This is a book about the development of dependable, embedded software. It is for systems designers, implementers, and verifiers who are experienced in general embedded software development, but who are now facing the prospect of delivering a software-based system for a safety-critical application. It is aimed at those creating a product that must satisfy one or more of the international standards relating to safety-critical applications, including IEC 61508, ISO 26262, EN 50128, EN 50657, IEC 62304, or related standards. Of the first edition, Stephen Thomas, PE, Founder and Editor of FunctionalSafetyEngineer.com said, "I highly recommend Mr. Hobbs' book."

Provides an insight to safety managers in analyzing bad events and the ways to deal with them. Covers randomness, uncertainty, and predictability in detail. Explains concepts including reverse stress testing, real-time monitoring, and predictive maintenance in a comprehensive manner. Presents mathematical analysis of incidents and accidents using statistics and probabilities theories.

Residential Exposure Assessment: A Source Book is the result of a multiyear effort known as the Residential Exposure Assessment Project (REAP) which was initiated by the Society for Risk Analysis and the International Society of Exposure Analysis. This textbook is the primary product of the REAP and it contains contributions from over 30 professionals from a variety of disciplines such as chemistry, biology, physics, engi neering, industrial hygiene, toxicology, pharmacology, and environmental law, reflecting the diverse knowledge and resources necessary to assess and manage potential exposures occurring in and around the home. Expert working groups were organized for each of the 13 chapters to address such issues as U. S. legislation relevant to products used in and around the residence, methods for measuring and modeling exposures across multiple pathways and routes, and distributional data available for key residential exposure factors. This volume is a compendium of information about predictive methods and tools, monitoring methods, data sources, and key variables that characterize exposures in the residential setting. It presents approaches for doing exposure assessments in and around all types of residences. The purpose of the Source Book is to provide a resource for use in educational programs and for "practitioners" of residential exposure assessment. Accordingly, this book is intended for risk assessors, exposure assessors, students, initi ates new to the concept of risk assessment, industrial hygienists assessing health hazards in the home, engineers, and monitoring specialists."

Wallowing in Mediocrity: Or Rising Above the Dismal State of Education provides a comprehensive comparative look at educational programs in several key countries across the globe. The myriad advantages of these countries' programs are counterpoised to the many fault lines in education as practiced in the United States. To offset these problematic areas, this book takes a critical look at how the United States could rectify the many problems associated with its system of education, especially concerning inefficient and unsustainable practices at the secondary and postsecondary levels. Examples include the lack of universally-accepted parameters for admission to most schools of higher education; the lack of exit exams from both secondary and post-secondary schools; the illogical repetition of propaedeutic courses the first two years at the university; the misdirection of community colleges, forcing them to make up for the shortfall of too many students not prepared for acceptance to a 4 year university; the shenanigans associated with for-profit schools, which, for the most part, prey on veterans and those seeking a better job through education; and the almost preposterous system in place for students to finance their education. Most of these shortcomings concerning the American educational system are not part and parcel of systems across the globe. For one, the Bologna Process unified degrees among participants, providing a logical means for member states to collaborate and, most important, to provide students the opportunity to transfer from one institution to another without penalty. Several countries do not charge any tuition whatsoever; others have established a fair and logical means for repayment.

Most university undergraduate and graduate audit classes are geared towards educating prospective auditors but do not provide education for those who will be audit clients and subjected to audits. Future audit clients need to be educated as well as future auditors to ensure that there is a level playing field. Those being audited do not receive the same level of formal education as internal auditors- most client education occurs during the audit itself. The client, once subjected to an audit and faced with the consequences of a failed audit, will learn via trial and error. If left unprepared, managers can suffer financial losses and promotional setbacks; the preparation and education that is needed to be audit ready is lacking. Of interest to accounting, finance or business students and entry-level practitioners, this book provides the audit education and preparation that has been missing. It shows how to interface with auditors, helping to identify issues, exposures and risks, and adequately position current and future managers to achieve successful audits. The book also provides mock audit simulation exercises to further prepare prospective audit clients.

This book provides an overview of the latest developments in the field of risk analysis (RA). Statistical methodologies have long-since been employed as crucial decision support tools in RA. Thus, in the context of this new century, characterized by a variety of daily risks - from security to health risks - the importance of exploring theoretical and applied issues connecting RA and statistical modeling (SM) is self-evident. In addition to discussing the latest methodological advances in these areas, the book explores applications in a broad range of settings, such as medicine, biology, insurance, pharmacology and agriculture, while also fostering applications in newly emerging areas. This book is intended for graduate students as well as quantitative researchers in the area of RA.

Wallowing in Mediocrity: Or Rising Above the Dismal State of Education provides a comprehensive comparative look at educational programs in several key countries across the globe. The myriad advantages of these countries' programs are counterpoised to the many fault lines in education as practiced in the United States. To offset these problematic areas, this book takes a critical look at how the United States could rectify the many problems associated with its system of education, especially concerning inefficient and unsustainable practices at the secondary and postsecondary levels. Examples include the lack of universally-accepted parameters for admission to most schools of higher education; the lack of exit exams from both secondary and post-secondary schools; the illogical repetition of propaedeutic courses the first two years at the university; the misdirection of community colleges, forcing them to make up for the shortfall of too many students not prepared for acceptance to a 4 year university; the shenanigans associated with for-profit schools, which, for the most part, prey on veterans and those seeking a better job through education; and the almost preposterous system in place for students to finance their education. Most of these shortcomings concerning the American educational system are not part and parcel of systems across the globe. For one, the Bologna Process unified degrees among participants, providing a logical means for member states to collaborate and, most important, to provide students the opportunity to transfer from one institution to another without penalty. Several countries do not charge any tuition whatsoever; others have established a fair and logical means for repayment.

Despite the growing interest in security amongst governments, organizations and the general public, the provision of much security is substandard. This book explores the problems facing security, and sets out innovative proposals to enhance the effectiveness of security in society, at national and organizational levels.

In the next wave of conduct regulation in financial markets, from 2021 conduct regulators in the UK and elsewhere expect firms to produce evidence on how they are improving behaviour and culture. Facing this, many practitioners are anxious that their current reporting and management information (MI) are irrelevant to meeting as-yet unclear regulatory expectations. This book provides the insights and tools firms need to report on culture, securing both enhanced business value and the regulator's approval. Culture is now seen as a key contributor to good governance, feeding into existing discourse on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and the emerging dialogue on 'non-financial (mis)conduct', but conventional measures of business quality are unfit for the new reporting agenda. Culture Audit in Financial Services follows the arc of 'behavioural regulation' to examine what the regulator really wants, before offering guidance on how culture audit differs from conventional auditing, how to put the latest pure-research findings to work, and the key features of well-designed conduct and culture reports. Written by an impartial author and a variety of contributors with extensive experience working with practitioners, regulators, and many of the world's finest academic initiatives, this book is filled with practical, grounded advice on how best to approach this new challenge and avoid infractions.