Gallhofer and Saris examine the collective choice processes in different decision-making units leading to World Wars I and II as well as the Cuban Missile Crisis, colonial wars, and to major foreign policy decisions of a European government after World War II. In the unit relating to the European government, they find strong evidence for consensual decision-making. But when disagreements occurred among the participants, alternative procedures were employed, such as postponements in order to search for additional information, shifts from argumentation to find a compromise, and change from consensus to majority decision-making. How quickly these shifts were made depended on the group norms.

This book provides a theoretical framework to understand how different foreign-policy decision-making units or groups arrive at a collective choice. The qualitative and quantitative studies presented here are based on written records and deal with the choice process of four different decision-making units in situations that pertain to important foreign policy decisions. Germany's decision-making process under Hitler to initiate World War II exemplifies a group with a leader who is insensitive to advice, making the decisions himself and using the group only for acclamation. Kennedy's decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis is very different, as it shows a leader sensitive to advice where the group has the task of presenting different options and their consequences. The Austro-Hungarian cabinet's decision to initiate World War I exemplifies a homogeneous group with a dissenter, although it arrived at a collective decision quite quickly using persuasion, compromise, and some coercion. The bulk of the study deals with a heterogeneous unit in a great variety of decision situations, because most Western European governments are of this type. Where there is extreme conflict and time pressure, consensual decision-making is abandoned and a majority choice is hammered out.

As the first systematic documented study of collective decision-making, as it pertains to different decision units, this book will be of considerable importance to scholars and researchers investigating the decision-making process in government and international affairs.

The risk process commonly used in the corporate world to deal with risks may be suitable for non-catastrophic events, but not for extreme events. By analyzing a series of past disasters and the relevant 'lessons learned', this books proposes a series of prescriptive measures to cope with future disasters.

Water resources, both in terms of water quality and water quantity, are of critical importance in planning for sustainable development in Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as in other parts of the world. This NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW), entitled "Risk Assessment as a Tool for Water Resources Decision-Making in Central Asia", was conducted on September 23-25, 2002 in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The ARW addressed methods and approaches by which risk assessment methodology that has been developed in the United States, Europe and elsewhere can be applied to environmental and water resource problems in Central Asia. The stated goals of the ARWwere: * to assess the existing state of knowledge in the context of potential applications of risk assessment tools to water resources and other environmental issues in Central Asia; * to identify research gaps and directions for future research in the area of water resources which may be addressed through the application of risk assessment tools; * to promote closer working relationships between the scientists and technical experts from Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as the scientists and technical experts from the United States and Europe. Based on historical experiences of Central Asian scientists and their colleagues in other parts of the world, there is a demonstrated need in the region to provide education, training and technical assistance on environmental decision-making tools, including risk assessment.

Although interest in Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) continues to grow rapidly in a wide range of disciplines, students, planners, managers, and the research community have lacked a book that covers the fundamentals of SDSS along with the advanced design concepts required for building SDSS. Filling this need, Spatial Decision Support Systems: Principles and Practices provides a comprehensive examination of the various aspects of SDSS evolution, components, architecture, and implementation. It integrates research from a variety of disciplines, including the geosciences, to supply a complete overview of SDSS technologies and their application from an interdisciplinary perspective. This groundbreaking reference provides thorough coverage of the roots of SDSS. It explains the core principles of SDSS, how to use them in various decision making contexts, and how to design and develop them using readily available enabling technologies and commercial tools. The book consists of four major parts, each addressing different topic areas in SDSS: 1. Presents an introduction to SDSS and the evolution of SDSS 2. Covers the essential and optional components of SDSS 3. Focuses on the design and implementation of SDSS 4. Reviews SDSS applications from various domains and disciplines -- investigating current challenges and future directions The text includes numerous detailed case studies, example applications, and methods for tailoring SDSS to your work environment. It also integrates sample code segments throughout. Addressing the technical and organizational challenges that affect the success or failure of SDSS, the book concludes by considering future directions of this rapidly emerging field of study.

That risk communication ranks high on the policymaking agenda is beyond discussion today. The field is a point of intersection of social communication, practical management and policy making. It covers such diverse activities as to inform and educate the public about risk, and risk management in order to influence attitudes and behaviour, to act in situations of emergency or crises, to aid in decision-making and to assist in conflict resolution. Communication has grown into a major concern in current risk governance based on network co-ordinated management of public affairs conducted by authorities and companies and is recognized as a key component in the government of risk. This is especially salient in policy fields relating to environmental planning and resource management, urban planning, chemical and food regulation, or infrastructure planning, development and maintenance. This book explores risk communication research with a focus on new theoretical perspectives, research findings, and applied goals. It reflects on a broad range of innovative theoretical perspectives, methodological approaches and empirical areas. This book was published as a special issue of the Journal of Risk Research.

The 'Precautionary Principle' has sparked the central controversy over European and U.S. risk regulation. The Reality of Precaution is the most comprehensive study to go beyond precaution as an abstract principle and test its reality in practice. This groundbreaking resource combines detailed case studies of a wide array of risks to health, safety, environment and security; a broad quantitative analysis; and cross-cutting chapters on politics, law, and perceptions. The authors rebut the rhetoric of conflicting European and American approaches to risk, and show that the reality has been the selective application of precaution to particular risks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as a constructive exchange of policy ideas toward 'better regulation.' The book offers a new view of precaution, regulatory reform, comparative analysis, and transatlantic relations.

Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the critical need for improved methods of predicting natural disasters. Drawing on their vast practical experience and theoretical studies, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist in the modern system of science to provide the understanding required to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for such events.

Presenting a series of new understandings, theories, and a new system of methodology, Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters simplifies the world-class problem of prediction into a series of tasks that can be learned, mastered, and applied in the analysis and prediction of forthcoming changes in materials or fluids. These internationally respected authors introduce their novel method of digitization for dealing with irregular information, proven effective for predicting transitional changes in events. They also:

• Unveil a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters
• Highlight the reasons for common forecasting failures
• Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity
• Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information
• Supply proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters

This authoritative resource provides a systematic discussion of the non-evolutionality of the modern system of science analyzing its capabilities and limitations. By touching on the need for change in some of the fundamentals in basic scientific theories and relevant methodologies, this book provides the scientific community with the understanding and methodology required to forecast zero-probability major disasters with greatly improved accuracy.

The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

Most successful organizations recognize Maintenance Parts and Procurement as a critical success factor to Asset Management Excellence and their fundamental supply chain value proposition. This book works as a guide to all the stakeholders that influence the success of their Maintenance Parts Operation and their enterprise's bottom line. Maintenance Parts Management Excellence: A Holistic Anatomy defines the Maintenance Parts Managements role in Asset Management Excellence and expands on the importance of the Parts Inventory Planner role in an organization. It discusses how to create a unique Maintenance Parts Management Strategy for an organization and offers insights on the multiple strategies needed to create and maintain a Maintenance Parts inventory policy. The book also provides an organized overall approach to creating Maintenance Parts Management Excellence in an enterprise. Executives with an organization responsible for the construction, management, and disposal of all assets classes (plant, equipment, IT assets), consultants responsible for assignments associated with optimizing life cycle decisions for clients, maintenance, and reliability professionals within an organization, will benefit from this professional plus book. Upper-level undergraduate engineering students, as well as graduate students of management who focus on operations management and engineering graduate students addressing issues of maintenance and reliability engineering, may also be interested in this book.

Information is precious. It reduces our uncertainty in making decisions. Knowledge about the outcome of an uncertain event gives the possessor an advantage. It changes the course of lives, nations, and history itself. Information is the food of Maxwell's demon. His power comes from know ing which particles are hot and which particles are cold. His existence was paradoxical to classical physics and only the realization that information too was a source of power led to his taming. Information has recently become a commodity, traded and sold like or ange juice or hog bellies. Colleges give degrees in information science and information management. Technology of the computer age has provided access to information in overwhelming quantity. Information has become something worth studying in its own right. The purpose of this volume is to introduce key developments and results in the area of generalized information theory, a theory that deals with uncertainty-based information within mathematical frameworks that are broader than classical set theory and probability theory. The volume is organized as follows."

Risk management within law firms is a rapidly developing area. In the last year economic changes alone (the term 'credit crunch' was as yet unheard of when the second edition was written) have served to highlight the need for your risk management strategy to be under constant review. The credit crunch raises the game for all firms substantially, bringing to the fore issues involving: People; Clients; Regulatory risk; and Insurance. This report, substantially increased in size to deal with the emerging issues, aims to give you a clear understanding of how they will affect your law firm and how you need to respond, in order to manage them effectively. The third edition covers: Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) monitoring and enforcement of the Solicitor's Code of Conduct 2007; The Legal Services Act 2007 and the risks it presents; and A review of compliance with the Money Laundering Regulations 2007 - a year after their implementation on 15 December 2007. The report guides you through the distinct requirements of a risk management system including: Responsibility at senior management level; A framework for managing risk across all parts of the business; Integration of risk management processes into firm culture; Accountability in each practice area and support function; A risk evaluation process; External assessment; and Business continuity planning. Subjects covered include: Credit crunch risks; People and culture issues; Client engagement; Finance; Protecting partner assets; Compliance; File auditing; Managing your insurance; Office systems; Location and premises issues; Professional indemnity insurance; And more - Risk Management for Law Firms, 3rd Edition provides an in-depth analysis of key risk areas within the firm and aims to help firms meet new and emerging challenges with clear, practical examples.

'Risk Governance is a tour de force. Every risk manager, every risk analyst, every risk researcher must read this book - it is the demarcation point for all further advances in risk policy and risk research. Renn provides authoritative guidance on how to manage risks based on a definitive synthesis of the research literature. The skill with which he builds practical recommendations from solid science is unprecedented.'Thomas Dietz, Director, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University, USA 'A masterpiece of new knowledge and wisdom with illustrative examples of tested applications to realworld cases. The book is recommendable also to interested students in different disciplines as a timely textbook on 'risk beyond risk'.'Norio Okada, Full Professor and Director at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan 'There are classic environmental works such as The Tragedy of the Commons by Hardin, Risk Society by Beck, The Theory of Communicative Action by Habermas, and the seminal volumes by Ostrom on governing the commons. Renn's book fits right into this series of important milestones of environmental studies.'Jochen Jaeger, Professor at Concordia University, Montreal, Canada 'Risk Governance provides a valuable survey of the whole field of risk and demonstrates how scientific, economic, political and civil society actors can participate in inclusive risk governance.'Jobst Conrad, Senior Scientist, Social Science Research Center Berlin, Germany 'Renn offers a remarkably fair-minded and systematic approach to bringing together the diverse fields that have something to say about 'risk'. Risk Governance moves us along the path from the noisy, formative stage of thinking about risk to one with a stronger empirical, theoretical, and analytical foundation.'Baruch Fischhoff, PhD, Howard Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA 'I cannot describe how impressed I am at the breadth and coherence of Renn's career's work! Written with remarkable clarity and minimal technical jargon... [this] should be required reading in risk courses!' John Graham, former director of the Harvard Risk Center and former deputy director of the Office of Budget and Management of the Unites States Administration This book, for the first time, brings together and updates the groundbreaking work of renowned risk theorist and researcher Ortwin Renn, integrating the major disciplinary concepts of risk in the social, engineering and natural sciences. The book opens with the context of risk handling before flowing through the core topics of assessment, evaluation, perception, management and communication, culminating in a look at the transition from risk management to risk governance and a glimpse at a new understanding of risk in (post)modern societies.

Scheduling and multicriteria optimisation theory have been subject, separately, to numerous studies. Since the last twenty years, multicriteria scheduling problems have been subject to a growing interest. However, a gap between multicriteria scheduling approaches and multicriteria optimisation field exits. This book is an attempt to collect the elementary of multicriteria optimisation theory and the basic models and algorithms of multicriteria scheduling. It is composed of numerous illustrations, algorithms and examples which may help the reader in understanding the presented concepts. This book covers general concepts such as Pareto optimality, complexity theory, and general method for multicriteria optimisation, as well as dedicated scheduling problems and algorithms: just-in-time scheduling, flexibility and robustness, single machine problems, parallel machine problems, shop problems, etc. The second edition contains revisions and new material.

This safari will send students on an expedition that will result in hours of good thinking and unbridled enthusiasm. As enthusiasm soars, so do the levels of thinking skills engaged. Students love these deductive logic puzzles so much that they beg to do them, little realizing that they are building important reading comprehension and thinking skills. Teachers love these puzzles because of their ease of use in multicurricular parallels and their effortlessness in fitting into pullout programs of limited duration. Each motivating puzzle includes an introduction with student-related topics, clues, a grid, and an illustration. The goal in Logic Safari is to hunt down the clues, sort, analyze, and combine them into the correct solution. Each book represents an ever-increasing challenge to students while scenarios remain fresh, evoking renewed eagerness. The size of the grids is an indication of difficulty. This is the first book in a three-part series of deductive logic puzzles. For more advanced puzzles, see Logic Safari Book 2 and Logic Safari Book 3. Grades 2-3

The ability to successfully procure built assets is at the heart of the construction process and in turn at the heart of the procurement process is identifying the constantly evolving needs of the construction client.
Despite client criticism and a mountain of reports and statistics, spanning both the public and private sectors, until now the construction industry has failed to transform the diverse and often separate and inefficient processes of design and procurement of built assets into one single integrated production process. There are now signs however that the construction industry is beginning to transform its approach to built asset procurement and client care.
This book draws heavily on the experiences and best practice of other industries and market sectors who have, just as construction is now having to do, taken a critical look at their procurement practices and techniques and the inherent waste in many traditional systems. The text includes practice-based case studies, from both the public and private sectors, to demonstrate how new procurement approaches are delivering value for money over the life cycle of built assets.
This book is recommended reading for a range of students in the field of the built environment from quantity surveyors and commercial managers to architects and an essential and comprehensive guide to all construction procurement professionals seeking to familiarise themselves with the latest approaches to procurement.
*Procurement based on the needs of the client.
*Different procurement systems evaluated.
*Worldwide case studies.

This succinct and practical reference/text presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems-emphasizing the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. Offers new insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff. What Every Engineer Should Know About DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY presents new paradigms for engineering decision making covers customer-focused engineering decision making details spreadsheet simulation methods to help avoid bias and habitual behavior discusses continuous quality improvement versus business reengineering processes illustrates information value in decision making during uncertainty analyzes capital budgeting discusses the accuracy of sample estimates presents practical case studies from various engineering disciplines and shows how to tailor the illustrated methods to different applications Predicting outcomes of engineering decisions through regression analysis, this reference will benefit mechanical, civil, electrical and electronics, materials, chemical, mineral, cost, quality, reliability, industrial, product development, safety, forensic, and consulting engineers; architects; engineering managers; and project and program managers; and is an essential text for upper-level undergraduate, graduate, and continuing-education students in these disciplines.

With climate change and deforestation, debris flows and debris avalanches have become the most significant landslide hazards in many countries. In recent years there have been numerous debris flow avalanches in Southern Europe, South America and the Indian Subcontinent, resulting in major catastrophes and large loss of life. This is therefore a major high-profile problem for the world's governments and for the engineers and scientists concerned.

Matthias Jakob and Oldrich Hungr are ideally suited to edit this book. Matthias Jakob has worked on debris flow for over a decade and has had numerous papers published on the topic, as well as working as a consultant on debris flow for municipal and provincial governments. Oldrich Hungr has worked on site investigations on debris flow, avalanches and rockfall, with emphasis on slope stability analysis and evaluation of risks to roads in built-up areas. He has also developed mathematical models for landslide dynamic analysis. They have invited world-renowned experts to joint them in this book.

The Risk Management Handbook offers readers knowledge of current best practice and cutting-edge insights into new developments within risk management. Risk management is dynamic, with new risks continually being identified and risk techniques being adapted to new challenges. Drawing together leading voices from the major risk management application areas, such as political, supply chain, cybersecurity, ESG and climate change risk, this edited collection showcases best practice in each discipline and provides a comprehensive survey of the field as a whole. This second edition has been updated throughout to reflect the latest developments in the industry. It incorporates content on updated and new standards such as ISO 31000, MOR and ISO 14000. It also offers brand new chapters on ESG risk management, legal risk management, cyber risk management, climate change risk management and financial risk management. Whether you are a risk professional wanting to stay abreast of your field, a student seeking a broad and up-to-date introduction to risk, or a business leader wanting to get to grips with the risks that face your business, this book will provide expert guidance.