Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the critical need for improved methods of predicting natural disasters. Drawing on their vast practical experience and theoretical studies, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist in the modern system of science to provide the understanding required to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for such events.

Presenting a series of new understandings, theories, and a new system of methodology, Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters simplifies the world-class problem of prediction into a series of tasks that can be learned, mastered, and applied in the analysis and prediction of forthcoming changes in materials or fluids. These internationally respected authors introduce their novel method of digitization for dealing with irregular information, proven effective for predicting transitional changes in events. They also:

• Unveil a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters
• Highlight the reasons for common forecasting failures
• Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity
• Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information
• Supply proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters

This authoritative resource provides a systematic discussion of the non-evolutionality of the modern system of science analyzing its capabilities and limitations. By touching on the need for change in some of the fundamentals in basic scientific theories and relevant methodologies, this book provides the scientific community with the understanding and methodology required to forecast zero-probability major disasters with greatly improved accuracy.

Information is precious. It reduces our uncertainty in making decisions. Knowledge about the outcome of an uncertain event gives the possessor an advantage. It changes the course of lives, nations, and history itself. Information is the food of Maxwell's demon. His power comes from know ing which particles are hot and which particles are cold. His existence was paradoxical to classical physics and only the realization that information too was a source of power led to his taming. Information has recently become a commodity, traded and sold like or ange juice or hog bellies. Colleges give degrees in information science and information management. Technology of the computer age has provided access to information in overwhelming quantity. Information has become something worth studying in its own right. The purpose of this volume is to introduce key developments and results in the area of generalized information theory, a theory that deals with uncertainty-based information within mathematical frameworks that are broader than classical set theory and probability theory. The volume is organized as follows."

Risk management within law firms is a rapidly developing area. In the last year economic changes alone (the term 'credit crunch' was as yet unheard of when the second edition was written) have served to highlight the need for your risk management strategy to be under constant review. The credit crunch raises the game for all firms substantially, bringing to the fore issues involving: People; Clients; Regulatory risk; and Insurance. This report, substantially increased in size to deal with the emerging issues, aims to give you a clear understanding of how they will affect your law firm and how you need to respond, in order to manage them effectively. The third edition covers: Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) monitoring and enforcement of the Solicitor's Code of Conduct 2007; The Legal Services Act 2007 and the risks it presents; and A review of compliance with the Money Laundering Regulations 2007 - a year after their implementation on 15 December 2007. The report guides you through the distinct requirements of a risk management system including: Responsibility at senior management level; A framework for managing risk across all parts of the business; Integration of risk management processes into firm culture; Accountability in each practice area and support function; A risk evaluation process; External assessment; and Business continuity planning. Subjects covered include: Credit crunch risks; People and culture issues; Client engagement; Finance; Protecting partner assets; Compliance; File auditing; Managing your insurance; Office systems; Location and premises issues; Professional indemnity insurance; And more - Risk Management for Law Firms, 3rd Edition provides an in-depth analysis of key risk areas within the firm and aims to help firms meet new and emerging challenges with clear, practical examples.

For decades schools have invested substantial resources in boosting educational outcomes for disadvantaged students, but those investments have not always generated positive outcomes. Although many communities have expanded school choice, for example, families often choose to keep their children in failing schools. And while the federal government has increased the size of Pell Grants, many college-bound students who would be eligible for aid never apply. Then there is the troubling trend of "summer melt," in which up to 40 percent of high school graduates who have been accepted to college, mostly from under served communities, fail to show up for the fall semester. In The 160-Character Solution, Benjamin L Castleman shows how insights from behavioral economics-the study of how social, cognitive, and emotional factors affect our decisions - can be leveraged to help students complete assignments, perform to their full potential on tests, and choose schools and colleges where they are well-positioned for success. By employing behavioral strategies or "nudges," Castleman shows, administrators, teachers, and parents can dramatically improve educational outcomes from preschool to college. Castleman applies the science of decision making to explain why inequalities persist at various stages in education and to identify innovative solutions to improve students' academic achievement and attainment. By focusing on behavioral changes, Castleman demonstrates that small changes in how we ask questions, design applications, and tailor reminders can have remarkable impacts on student and school success.

Scheduling and multicriteria optimisation theory have been subject, separately, to numerous studies. Since the last twenty years, multicriteria scheduling problems have been subject to a growing interest. However, a gap between multicriteria scheduling approaches and multicriteria optimisation field exits. This book is an attempt to collect the elementary of multicriteria optimisation theory and the basic models and algorithms of multicriteria scheduling. It is composed of numerous illustrations, algorithms and examples which may help the reader in understanding the presented concepts. This book covers general concepts such as Pareto optimality, complexity theory, and general method for multicriteria optimisation, as well as dedicated scheduling problems and algorithms: just-in-time scheduling, flexibility and robustness, single machine problems, parallel machine problems, shop problems, etc. The second edition contains revisions and new material.

Most successful organizations recognize Maintenance Parts and Procurement as a critical success factor to Asset Management Excellence and their fundamental supply chain value proposition. This book works as a guide to all the stakeholders that influence the success of their Maintenance Parts Operation and their enterprise's bottom line. Maintenance Parts Management Excellence: A Holistic Anatomy defines the Maintenance Parts Managements role in Asset Management Excellence and expands on the importance of the Parts Inventory Planner role in an organization. It discusses how to create a unique Maintenance Parts Management Strategy for an organization and offers insights on the multiple strategies needed to create and maintain a Maintenance Parts inventory policy. The book also provides an organized overall approach to creating Maintenance Parts Management Excellence in an enterprise. Executives with an organization responsible for the construction, management, and disposal of all assets classes (plant, equipment, IT assets), consultants responsible for assignments associated with optimizing life cycle decisions for clients, maintenance, and reliability professionals within an organization, will benefit from this professional plus book. Upper-level undergraduate engineering students, as well as graduate students of management who focus on operations management and engineering graduate students addressing issues of maintenance and reliability engineering, may also be interested in this book.

The ability to successfully procure built assets is at the heart of the construction process and in turn at the heart of the procurement process is identifying the constantly evolving needs of the construction client.
Despite client criticism and a mountain of reports and statistics, spanning both the public and private sectors, until now the construction industry has failed to transform the diverse and often separate and inefficient processes of design and procurement of built assets into one single integrated production process. There are now signs however that the construction industry is beginning to transform its approach to built asset procurement and client care.
This book draws heavily on the experiences and best practice of other industries and market sectors who have, just as construction is now having to do, taken a critical look at their procurement practices and techniques and the inherent waste in many traditional systems. The text includes practice-based case studies, from both the public and private sectors, to demonstrate how new procurement approaches are delivering value for money over the life cycle of built assets.
This book is recommended reading for a range of students in the field of the built environment from quantity surveyors and commercial managers to architects and an essential and comprehensive guide to all construction procurement professionals seeking to familiarise themselves with the latest approaches to procurement.
*Procurement based on the needs of the client.
*Different procurement systems evaluated.
*Worldwide case studies.

This book presents a novel decision-making support system based on paraconsistent annotated evidential logic, which directly handles imprecise, incomplete and contradictory data. The authors offer insights into areas such as engineering and biomedicine, as well as related fields. Decision analysis is useful in making choices when the consequences of actions are uncertain, like in business administration, where it assists in making investment decisions, and in health care, Decision analysis is also valuable when the possible actions may lead to conflicting consequences. A fundamental tenet of decision analysis is that even though the available information is incomplete, a decision must be made. Thus, analyses often contain assumptions about or estimates of missing data. The contribution that this method can provide to professionals and companies has significant relevance in terms of the impact of information systems on productivity and quality of the companies; the lack of training companies for proper planning and management of information systems; and the need for interdisciplinary treatment of several sectors of almost all related scientific areas. This book is a valuable resource for professionals seeking a competitive edge in their performance.

This succinct and practical reference/text presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems-emphasizing the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. Offers new insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff. What Every Engineer Should Know About DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY presents new paradigms for engineering decision making covers customer-focused engineering decision making details spreadsheet simulation methods to help avoid bias and habitual behavior discusses continuous quality improvement versus business reengineering processes illustrates information value in decision making during uncertainty analyzes capital budgeting discusses the accuracy of sample estimates presents practical case studies from various engineering disciplines and shows how to tailor the illustrated methods to different applications Predicting outcomes of engineering decisions through regression analysis, this reference will benefit mechanical, civil, electrical and electronics, materials, chemical, mineral, cost, quality, reliability, industrial, product development, safety, forensic, and consulting engineers; architects; engineering managers; and project and program managers; and is an essential text for upper-level undergraduate, graduate, and continuing-education students in these disciplines.

With climate change and deforestation, debris flows and debris avalanches have become the most significant landslide hazards in many countries. In recent years there have been numerous debris flow avalanches in Southern Europe, South America and the Indian Subcontinent, resulting in major catastrophes and large loss of life. This is therefore a major high-profile problem for the world's governments and for the engineers and scientists concerned.

Matthias Jakob and Oldrich Hungr are ideally suited to edit this book. Matthias Jakob has worked on debris flow for over a decade and has had numerous papers published on the topic, as well as working as a consultant on debris flow for municipal and provincial governments. Oldrich Hungr has worked on site investigations on debris flow, avalanches and rockfall, with emphasis on slope stability analysis and evaluation of risks to roads in built-up areas. He has also developed mathematical models for landslide dynamic analysis. They have invited world-renowned experts to joint them in this book.

A practical guide, from the basic techniques, through to advanced applications, showing you what risk management is, and how you can develop a successful strategy for your company.

Mastering Risk Management provides a step-by-step guide from the basic to advanced elements of risk management. Following the 3-part framework, it covers:

1. What do we mean by risk management?
2. Risk management tools
3. What keeps management awake at night

Focusing on practical applications, it gives you the knowledge needed to understand what risk management is and puts in place a workable way of managing it.

Containing contributions from well-respected international researchers into decision making, the book examines the nature of the psychological processes underlying decision making, and addresses a range of topics including the role of emotions, coping with uncertainty, time pressure, and confidence in decisions. "Decision Making" first places the process approach to decision research in a historical and theoretical context, providing a critical evaluation of its principal research methods. The contributors then consider various influences upon decision making, risk and uncertainty; a final section examines time pressure, the effects of past decisions, and post-decision processes. Decision making is regarded as an interaction between the decision maker, problem and context, and is thus placed in a social environment.

This open access book discusses the most modern approach to auditing complex digital systems and technologies. It combines proven auditing approaches, advanced programming techniques and complex application areas, and covers the latest findings on theory and practice in this rapidly developing field. Especially for those who want to learn more about novel approaches to testing complex information systems and related technologies, such as blockchain and self-learning systems, the book will be a valuable resource. It is aimed at students and practitioners who are interested in contemporary technology and managerial implications.

This book provides an investor-friendly presentation of the premises and applications of the quantitative finance models governing investment in one asset class of publicly traded stocks, specifically real estate investment trusts (REITs). The models provide highly advanced analytics for REIT investment, including: portfolio optimization using both historic and predictive return estimation; model backtesting; a complete spectrum of risk assessment and management tools with an emphasis on early warning systems, risk budgeting, estimating tail risk, and factor analysis; derivative valuation; and incorporating ESG ratings into REIT investment. These quantitative finance models are presented in a unified framework consistent with dynamic asset pricing (rational finance). Given its scope and practical orientation, this book will appeal to investors interested in portfolio optimization and innovative tools for investment risk assessment.

State of the art risk management techniques and practices supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that "risk management" is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. * Covers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting * Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics * Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio Providing the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance, and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios are imbued with "affect." Positive and negative emotions warp investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis. Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of security, potential, and aspiration.