What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? 'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator 'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.

Information is precious. It reduces our uncertainty in making decisions. Knowledge about the outcome of an uncertain event gives the possessor an advantage. It changes the course of lives, nations, and history itself. Information is the food of Maxwell's demon. His power comes from know ing which particles are hot and which particles are cold. His existence was paradoxical to classical physics and only the realization that information too was a source of power led to his taming. Information has recently become a commodity, traded and sold like or ange juice or hog bellies. Colleges give degrees in information science and information management. Technology of the computer age has provided access to information in overwhelming quantity. Information has become something worth studying in its own right. The purpose of this volume is to introduce key developments and results in the area of generalized information theory, a theory that deals with uncertainty-based information within mathematical frameworks that are broader than classical set theory and probability theory. The volume is organized as follows."

Risks are everywhere in the business world. "Mastering Risk Modelling" provides the busy financial manager with useful tips andpractical templates for assessing, applying and modelling risk and uncertainty in Excel. The book is designed specifically to be of help to you if you don't have time to start from scratch - it will improve your abilities in Excel and give you a library of basic examples that you can use as a basis for further development.

It covers:

- Review of model design

- Risk and uncertainty

- Credit risk

- Project finance

- Financial analysis

- Valuation

- Options

- Bonds

- Equities

- Value at risk

- Simulation

This second edition contains brand new chapters:

- Revised models

- More material on credit risk modelling e.g. portfolios, bankruptcy models

- Shows dual 2003/2007 Excel key strokes

- More theory especially on statistics in Excel

- Basic statistics in Excel - tools and methods

- Capacity to borrow and repay

- Finding optimum mix of risk and return

- Fixed income risk models

- Visual Basic approach

Straight Choices provides a fascinating introduction to the psychology of decision making, enhanced by discussion of relevant examples of decision problems faced in everyday life. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, this edition provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. The book emphasizes the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decision making. This edition highlights advances made in judgment and decision making research, with additional coverage of behavioral insights, nudging, artificial intelligence, and explanation-based decision making. Written in a non-technical manner, this book is an essential read for all students and researchers in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and the decision sciences, as well as anyone interested in the nature of decision making.

'Risk Governance is a tour de force. Every risk manager, every risk analyst, every risk researcher must read this book - it is the demarcation point for all further advances in risk policy and risk research. Renn provides authoritative guidance on how to manage risks based on a definitive synthesis of the research literature. The skill with which he builds practical recommendations from solid science is unprecedented.'Thomas Dietz, Director, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University, USA 'A masterpiece of new knowledge and wisdom with illustrative examples of tested applications to realworld cases. The book is recommendable also to interested students in different disciplines as a timely textbook on 'risk beyond risk'.'Norio Okada, Full Professor and Director at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan 'There are classic environmental works such as The Tragedy of the Commons by Hardin, Risk Society by Beck, The Theory of Communicative Action by Habermas, and the seminal volumes by Ostrom on governing the commons. Renn's book fits right into this series of important milestones of environmental studies.'Jochen Jaeger, Professor at Concordia University, Montreal, Canada 'Risk Governance provides a valuable survey of the whole field of risk and demonstrates how scientific, economic, political and civil society actors can participate in inclusive risk governance.'Jobst Conrad, Senior Scientist, Social Science Research Center Berlin, Germany 'Renn offers a remarkably fair-minded and systematic approach to bringing together the diverse fields that have something to say about 'risk'. Risk Governance moves us along the path from the noisy, formative stage of thinking about risk to one with a stronger empirical, theoretical, and analytical foundation.'Baruch Fischhoff, PhD, Howard Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA 'I cannot describe how impressed I am at the breadth and coherence of Renn's career's work! Written with remarkable clarity and minimal technical jargon... [this] should be required reading in risk courses!' John Graham, former director of the Harvard Risk Center and former deputy director of the Office of Budget and Management of the Unites States Administration This book, for the first time, brings together and updates the groundbreaking work of renowned risk theorist and researcher Ortwin Renn, integrating the major disciplinary concepts of risk in the social, engineering and natural sciences. The book opens with the context of risk handling before flowing through the core topics of assessment, evaluation, perception, management and communication, culminating in a look at the transition from risk management to risk governance and a glimpse at a new understanding of risk in (post)modern societies.

The Risk Management Handbook offers readers knowledge of current best practice and cutting-edge insights into new developments within risk management. Risk management is dynamic, with new risks continually being identified and risk techniques being adapted to new challenges. Drawing together leading voices from the major risk management application areas, such as political, supply chain, cybersecurity, ESG and climate change risk, this edited collection showcases best practice in each discipline and provides a comprehensive survey of the field as a whole. This second edition has been updated throughout to reflect the latest developments in the industry. It incorporates content on updated and new standards such as ISO 31000, MOR and ISO 14000. It also offers brand new chapters on ESG risk management, legal risk management, cyber risk management, climate change risk management and financial risk management. Whether you are a risk professional wanting to stay abreast of your field, a student seeking a broad and up-to-date introduction to risk, or a business leader wanting to get to grips with the risks that face your business, this book will provide expert guidance.

Scheduling and multicriteria optimisation theory have been subject, separately, to numerous studies. Since the last twenty years, multicriteria scheduling problems have been subject to a growing interest. However, a gap between multicriteria scheduling approaches and multicriteria optimisation field exits. This book is an attempt to collect the elementary of multicriteria optimisation theory and the basic models and algorithms of multicriteria scheduling. It is composed of numerous illustrations, algorithms and examples which may help the reader in understanding the presented concepts. This book covers general concepts such as Pareto optimality, complexity theory, and general method for multicriteria optimisation, as well as dedicated scheduling problems and algorithms: just-in-time scheduling, flexibility and robustness, single machine problems, parallel machine problems, shop problems, etc. The second edition contains revisions and new material.

Risk management within law firms is a rapidly developing area. In the last year economic changes alone (the term 'credit crunch' was as yet unheard of when the second edition was written) have served to highlight the need for your risk management strategy to be under constant review. The credit crunch raises the game for all firms substantially, bringing to the fore issues involving: People; Clients; Regulatory risk; and Insurance. This report, substantially increased in size to deal with the emerging issues, aims to give you a clear understanding of how they will affect your law firm and how you need to respond, in order to manage them effectively. The third edition covers: Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) monitoring and enforcement of the Solicitor's Code of Conduct 2007; The Legal Services Act 2007 and the risks it presents; and A review of compliance with the Money Laundering Regulations 2007 - a year after their implementation on 15 December 2007. The report guides you through the distinct requirements of a risk management system including: Responsibility at senior management level; A framework for managing risk across all parts of the business; Integration of risk management processes into firm culture; Accountability in each practice area and support function; A risk evaluation process; External assessment; and Business continuity planning. Subjects covered include: Credit crunch risks; People and culture issues; Client engagement; Finance; Protecting partner assets; Compliance; File auditing; Managing your insurance; Office systems; Location and premises issues; Professional indemnity insurance; And more - Risk Management for Law Firms, 3rd Edition provides an in-depth analysis of key risk areas within the firm and aims to help firms meet new and emerging challenges with clear, practical examples.

The Nordic welfare states have found themselves in the firing line of post-industrial developments, resulting in fundamental changes in societal institutions at all levels. In particular, changes in the labour market and family, reinforced by processes of migration and international market integration, have presented the welfare states with new social needs to attend to. This book critically explores responses to changing social risks across areas such as structural unemployment, entrepreneurship, immigration, single parenthood, education and health. It explores critical changes in the structure of the Nordic welfare states and the social policy strategies for alleviating social risks. While the Nordic countries are shining in most international comparisons, such changes and their wider implications have often been overlooked in the literature. The book raises the question whether certain risks are even being evoked actively through new social policies instating incentive structures concomitant with policy goals in order to encourage certain behaviour among citizens.

The ability to successfully procure built assets is at the heart of the construction process and in turn at the heart of the procurement process is identifying the constantly evolving needs of the construction client.
Despite client criticism and a mountain of reports and statistics, spanning both the public and private sectors, until now the construction industry has failed to transform the diverse and often separate and inefficient processes of design and procurement of built assets into one single integrated production process. There are now signs however that the construction industry is beginning to transform its approach to built asset procurement and client care.
This book draws heavily on the experiences and best practice of other industries and market sectors who have, just as construction is now having to do, taken a critical look at their procurement practices and techniques and the inherent waste in many traditional systems. The text includes practice-based case studies, from both the public and private sectors, to demonstrate how new procurement approaches are delivering value for money over the life cycle of built assets.
This book is recommended reading for a range of students in the field of the built environment from quantity surveyors and commercial managers to architects and an essential and comprehensive guide to all construction procurement professionals seeking to familiarise themselves with the latest approaches to procurement.
*Procurement based on the needs of the client.
*Different procurement systems evaluated.
*Worldwide case studies.

This book provides a hands-on introduction to Machine Learning (ML) from a multidisciplinary perspective that does not require a background in data science or computer science. It explains ML using simple language and a straightforward approach guided by real-world examples in areas such as health informatics, information technology, and business analytics. The book will help readers understand the various key algorithms, major software tools, and their applications. Moreover, through examples from the healthcare and business analytics fields, it demonstrates how and when ML can help them make better decisions in their disciplines. The book is chiefly intended for undergraduate and graduate students who are taking an introductory course in machine learning. It will also benefit data analysts and anyone interested in learning ML approaches.

First published in 1985, Mary Douglas intended Risk and Acceptability as a review of the existing literature on the state of risk theory. Unsatisfied with the current studies of risk, which she found to be flawed by individualistic and psychologistic biases, she instead uses the book to argue risk analysis from an anthropological perspective. Douglas raises questions about rational choice, the provision of public good and the autonomy of the individual.

This succinct and practical reference/text presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems-emphasizing the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. Offers new insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff. What Every Engineer Should Know About DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY presents new paradigms for engineering decision making covers customer-focused engineering decision making details spreadsheet simulation methods to help avoid bias and habitual behavior discusses continuous quality improvement versus business reengineering processes illustrates information value in decision making during uncertainty analyzes capital budgeting discusses the accuracy of sample estimates presents practical case studies from various engineering disciplines and shows how to tailor the illustrated methods to different applications Predicting outcomes of engineering decisions through regression analysis, this reference will benefit mechanical, civil, electrical and electronics, materials, chemical, mineral, cost, quality, reliability, industrial, product development, safety, forensic, and consulting engineers; architects; engineering managers; and project and program managers; and is an essential text for upper-level undergraduate, graduate, and continuing-education students in these disciplines.

This book presents a novel decision-making support system based on paraconsistent annotated evidential logic, which directly handles imprecise, incomplete and contradictory data. The authors offer insights into areas such as engineering and biomedicine, as well as related fields. Decision analysis is useful in making choices when the consequences of actions are uncertain, like in business administration, where it assists in making investment decisions, and in health care, Decision analysis is also valuable when the possible actions may lead to conflicting consequences. A fundamental tenet of decision analysis is that even though the available information is incomplete, a decision must be made. Thus, analyses often contain assumptions about or estimates of missing data. The contribution that this method can provide to professionals and companies has significant relevance in terms of the impact of information systems on productivity and quality of the companies; the lack of training companies for proper planning and management of information systems; and the need for interdisciplinary treatment of several sectors of almost all related scientific areas. This book is a valuable resource for professionals seeking a competitive edge in their performance.

This open access book discusses the most modern approach to auditing complex digital systems and technologies. It combines proven auditing approaches, advanced programming techniques and complex application areas, and covers the latest findings on theory and practice in this rapidly developing field. Especially for those who want to learn more about novel approaches to testing complex information systems and related technologies, such as blockchain and self-learning systems, the book will be a valuable resource. It is aimed at students and practitioners who are interested in contemporary technology and managerial implications.

This book provides an investor-friendly presentation of the premises and applications of the quantitative finance models governing investment in one asset class of publicly traded stocks, specifically real estate investment trusts (REITs). The models provide highly advanced analytics for REIT investment, including: portfolio optimization using both historic and predictive return estimation; model backtesting; a complete spectrum of risk assessment and management tools with an emphasis on early warning systems, risk budgeting, estimating tail risk, and factor analysis; derivative valuation; and incorporating ESG ratings into REIT investment. These quantitative finance models are presented in a unified framework consistent with dynamic asset pricing (rational finance). Given its scope and practical orientation, this book will appeal to investors interested in portfolio optimization and innovative tools for investment risk assessment.

With climate change and deforestation, debris flows and debris avalanches have become the most significant landslide hazards in many countries. In recent years there have been numerous debris flow avalanches in Southern Europe, South America and the Indian Subcontinent, resulting in major catastrophes and large loss of life. This is therefore a major high-profile problem for the world's governments and for the engineers and scientists concerned.

Matthias Jakob and Oldrich Hungr are ideally suited to edit this book. Matthias Jakob has worked on debris flow for over a decade and has had numerous papers published on the topic, as well as working as a consultant on debris flow for municipal and provincial governments. Oldrich Hungr has worked on site investigations on debris flow, avalanches and rockfall, with emphasis on slope stability analysis and evaluation of risks to roads in built-up areas. He has also developed mathematical models for landslide dynamic analysis. They have invited world-renowned experts to joint them in this book.

This book presents new theory and empirical studies on the roles of cognitive workload and fatigue on repeated financial decisions. The mathematical models that are developed here utilize two cusp catastrophe functions for discontinuous changes in performance and integrate objective measures of workload, subjective experiences, and individual differences among the decision makers. Additional nonlinear dynamical processes are examined with regard to persistence and antipersistence in decisions, entropy, further explanations of overall performance, and the identification of risk-optimization profiles for long sequences of decisions.

Containing contributions from well-respected international researchers into decision making, the book examines the nature of the psychological processes underlying decision making, and addresses a range of topics including the role of emotions, coping with uncertainty, time pressure, and confidence in decisions. "Decision Making" first places the process approach to decision research in a historical and theoretical context, providing a critical evaluation of its principal research methods. The contributors then consider various influences upon decision making, risk and uncertainty; a final section examines time pressure, the effects of past decisions, and post-decision processes. Decision making is regarded as an interaction between the decision maker, problem and context, and is thus placed in a social environment.