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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
Risk is the single most prevalent and enduring factor that influences every individual, organization, and society. We often seek protection from negative risk events, but also seek to take advantage of opportunities arising from positive risk events. We may feel overwhelmed by messages encountered in daily interactions with media and society, contributing to a sense of ambiguity over how to act in response to risk-related information and misinformation. We seek to leverage evidence and reason to find our own balance between both positive and negative outcomes in an uncertain world. This ground-breaking book delivers practical concepts and tools that empower readers to leverage innovations in risk science to improve their abilities to interpret, assess, communicate, and handle risk. It provides a practical non-quantitative approach to understanding risk and to making better decisions involving risk. Think RISK covers several key themes in risk science: a) The main goals and strategies for understanding and managing risk b) How readers can inform their risk stances by considering their own individual values and mission c) The difference between risk and safety, and how that difference is critical for managing risk d) The role of psychological factors when understanding and managing risk e) The role of communication when understanding and managing risk, and f) The general importance and incentives for effectively understanding and managing risk. Written for business professionals in all private and public sectors, this book will also be relevant to non-business professionals such as medical practitioners and policymakers and would be an ideal fit for executive education and seminar-style courses in universities, corporate books clubs and training seminars. Because it's based on foundational and scientifically accepted ideas and principles, the book should remain relevant for many years.
The stories in the book are stitched together like a quilt giving you an overview of the mosaic of failure but also shining a light on the components of failure. The stories provide an insight into how you can create the conditions where you're going to take risks together and then experience failure together. The narratives are from people who examined their favorite failures, pulled the stories apart and provided us with an opportunity to understand how failure is not just one moment or one set of emotions. These stories provide us with a glimpse into how we can approach teaching, learning and setbacks with more humility and more humanity. It's more than just about getting unstuck, because failure has its own shape, it's own momentum, and shapes who we are all trying to become.
This cutting-edge book presents the theory and practice of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), which is used for strategically investigating disputes in any field to enable informed decision making. It clearly explains how GMCR can determine what is the best a particular decision maker (DM) can independently achieve in dynamic interaction with others. Moves and counter-moves follow various stability definitions reflecting human behavior under conflict. The book defines a wide range of preference structures to represent a DM's comparisons of states or scenarios: equally preferred, more or less preferred; unknown; degrees of strength of preference; and hybrid. It vividly describes how GMCR can ascertain whether a DM can fare even better by cooperating with others in a coalition. The book portrays how a conflict can evolve from the status quo to a desirable resolution, and provides a universal design for a decision support system to implement the innovative decision technologies using the matrix formulation of GMCR. Further, it illustrates the key ideas using real-world conflicts and supplies problems at the end of each chapter. As such, this highly instructive book benefits teachers, mentors, students and practitioners in any area where conflict arises.
Doug Campbell was about to enter college and he had a serious problem-he was extremely introverted, socially awkward, and terrified of public speaking. Why was this an issue? Because he knew that he would probably need these skills to find any level of personal or professional success. So, he decided to get serious about improving. The results of his journey are staggering. By the end of college, Doug was able to enter into a career that was mostly public speaking-high school teaching. He later became a regular networker and now has a reputation in his city for being a "never met a stranger" type. He has been completely transformed. This book is a record of many of the secrets of public speaking and social success that Doug learned along the way-writing as if he could go back and coach the 18-year-old version of himself who struggled so much. Whether you wish your communication skills were just a little better or if you need to make drastic improvements, this book is for you. Written to be practical and entertaining, The 200 Communication Commandments: Practical Tips for Personal and Professional Situations may be just the help you need to make life-changing changes just like Doug has done.
State school finance formula cause funding inadequacy, allocative inefficiency, and educational resource equity gaps. Legislative and court-ordered remedies have failed to solve the disparities among schools and districts. This book's ground-breaking innovation shows how to shift the public education finance paradigm to fund K-12 public education properly, fully, and equitably by eliminating the duplicative and unnecessary layer of county government nationwide and repurposing those tax dollars while implementing economies of scale to achieve allocative efficiency.
The concept of school turnaround-rapidly improving schools and increasing student achievement outcomes in a short period of time-has become politicized despite the relative newness of the idea. Unprecedented funding levels for school improvement combined with few examples of schools substantially increasing student achievement outcomes has resulted in doubt about whether or not turnaround is achievable. Skeptics have enumerated a number of reasons to abandon school turnaround at this early juncture. This book is the first in a new series on school turnaround and reform intended to spur ongoing dialogue among and between researchers, policymakers, and practitioners on improving the lowestperforming schools and the systems in which they operate. The "turnaround challenge" remains salient regardless of what we call it. We must improve the nation's lowest-performing schools for many moral, social, and economic reasons. In this first book, education researchers and scholars have identified a number of myths that have inhibited our ability to successfully turn schools around. Our intention is not to suggest that if these myths are addressed school turnaround will always be achieved. Business and other literatures outside of education make it clear that turnaround is, at best, difficult work. However, for a number of reasons, we in education have developed policies and practices that are often antithetical to turnaround. Indeed, we are making already challenging work harder. The myths identified in this book suggest that we still struggle to define or understand what we mean by turnaround or how best, or even adequately, measure whether it has been achieved. Moreover, it is clear that there are a number of factors limiting how effectively we structure and support low-performing schools both systemically and locally. And we have done a rather poor job of effectively leveraging human resources to raise student achievement and improve organizational outcomes. We anticipate this book having wide appeal for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in consideration of how to support these schools taking into account context, root causes of lowperformance, and the complex work to ensure their opportunity to be successful. Too frequently we have expected these schools to turn themselves around while failing to assist them with the vision and supports to realize meaningful, lasting organizational change. The myths identified and debunked in this book potentially illustrate a way forward.
Praise for "Enterprise Risk Management and COSO: " "A Guide for Directors, Executives, and Practitioners" ""Enterprise Risk Management and COSO" is a comprehensive
reference book that presents core management of risk tools in a
helpful and organized "This book represents a unique guide on how to manage many of
the critical components that constitute an organization's corporate
defense program." "This book provides a comprehensive analysis of enterprise risk
management and is invaluable to anyone working in the risk
management arena. It provides excellent information regarding the
COSO framework, control components, control environment, and
quantitative risk assessment methodologies. It is a great piece of
work." "As digital information continues its exponential growth and
more systems become interconnected, the demand and need for proper
risk management will continue to increase. I found the book to be
very informative, eye-opening, and very pragmatic with an approach
to risk management that will not only add value to all boards who
are maturing and growing this capability, but also will provide
them with competitive advantage in this important area of
focus." Optimally manage your company's risks, even in the worst of economic conditions. There has never been a stronger need for sound risk management than now. Today's organizations are expected to manage a variety of risks that were unthinkable a decade ago. Insightful and compelling, "Enterprise Risk Management and COSO" reveals how to: Successfully incorporate enterprise risk management into your organization's culture Foster an environment that rewards open discussion of risks rather than concealment of them Quantitatively model risks and effectiveness of internal controls Best discern where risk management resources should be dedicated to minimize occurrence of risk-based events Test predictive models through empirical data
The information in this book will provide board members with simple tools to become an effective member of the board, even in the first term. Board members are introduced to Values Governance (R) system that incorporates community process techniques, curricular, and instructional innovations. This new model provides greater efficiency, effectiveness, and coherence in the governance of the board. With the completion of this survival guide, the new board member is ready to join the board with some skills in hand.
In an age of globalization, widely distributed systems, and rapidly advancing technological change, IT professionals and their managers must understand that risk is ever present. The key to project success is to identify risk and subsequently deal with it. The CIO's Guide to Risk addresses the many faces of risk, whether it be in systems development, adoption of bleeding edge tech, the push for innovation, and even the march toward all things social media. Risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, contingency planning, and risk monitoring and control are all addressed on a macro as well as micro level. The book begins with a big-picture view of analyzing technology trends to evaluate risk. It shows how to conceptualize trends, analyze their effect on infrastructure, develop metrics to measure success, and assess risk in adapting new technology. The book takes an in-depth look at project-related risks. It explains the fundamentals of project management and how project management relates to systems development and technology implementation. Techniques for analyzing project risk include brainstorming, the Delphi technique, assumption analysis, and decision analysis. Metrics to track and control project risks include the Balance Scorecard, project monitoring and reporting, and business and technology metrics. The book also takes an in-depth look at the role of knowledge management and innovation management in identifying, assessing, and managing risk. The book concludes with an executive's guide to the legal and privacy issues related to risk management, as well overviews of risks associated with social media and mobile environments. With its checklists, templates, and worksheets, the book is an indispensable reference on risk and information technology.
Critical thinking requires a deep understanding of the topic at hand and the ability to look at content from diverse, and often unfamiliar, perspectives. Critical thinkers engage with material in innovative and creative ways to analyze, synthesize and assess it in order to reach their own informed conclusions. Developing Critical Thinking: From Theory to Classroom Practice invites readers to revisit their pedagogy to promote this type of inquiry. Scholars and practitioners from several content areas introduce several examples of instructional strategies, classroom practices, and projects at multiple grade levels. Their experiences come together to highlight practical ways to foster students' critical thinking skills and encourage them to engage in learning in new ways.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Highly practical and useful for practitioners - cuts through a highly technical and complex subject in a useable and easy to follow way but without 'dumbing down'. Focuses on the facilitation of risk management, an area that is glossed over or simply ignored in other books on risk management. Brand new chapters on virtual facilitation and the role of group bias in the assessment of risk.
This book is about realistic solutions for the threat of zero-interest rates and excessive liquidity. Central banks do not print growth. The financial crisis was much more than the result of an excess of risk. The same policies that created each subsequent bust are the ones that have been implemented in recent years. This book is about realistic solutions for the threat of zero-interest rates and excessive liquidity. The United States needs to take the first step, defending sound money and a balanced budget, recovering the middle-class by focusing on increasing disposable income. The rest will follow. Our future should not be low growth and high debt. Cheap money becomes very expensive in the long run. There is an escape from the central bank trap.
This book will serve as a "Think Button" for any educator who has ever heard a student say, "I can't think" or "I can't decide!" Fifty prompts or thinking conduits are the catalysts that will give students a chance to practice thinking. The prompts (many with option answers) are formatted as brief stories, exercises, poems, and activities and are designed so kids can use the same thinking skill sets that are essential in making everyday decisions. Whether the prompts pose silly questions, "Would you rather bathe a gorilla or take an elephant for a walk?" or practical ones, "What's the best way to express your opinion?" they are all crafted to spur children to think hard and sensibly so they can make levelheaded decisions and defend their thinking in a stress-free think forum environment. The intention is for students to take the essence of something they've learned from a prompt and adapt it, stretch it, and use it to help solve a problem or make a tough decision. Every prompt comes with guidance, explanations, and suggestions so educators can clarify why certain options or decisions are better than others, and respond to thinking choices and decisions students may have made.
Hazard Mitigation in Emergency Management introduces readers to mitigation, one of the four foundational phases of emergency management, and to the hazard mitigation planning process. Authors Islam and Ryan review the hazard mitigation framework in both private sector and governmental agencies, covering the regulatory and legal frameworks for mitigation, as well as risk assessment processes and strategies, and tools and techniques that can prevent, or lessen, the impact of disasters. The book specifically addresses hazards posed by human activity, including cyber threats and nuclear accidents, as well as hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. Readers will learn about the framework for the mitigation process, hazard identification, risk assessment, and the tools and techniques available for mitigation. Coverage includes both GIS and HAZUS, with tutorials on these technologies, as well as case studies of best practices in the United States and around the world. The text is ideal for students, instructors, and practitioners interested in reducing, or eliminating, the effects of disasters.
This book statistically confirms that complexity and changing technologies that affect the way operators interact within the systems of the nuclear facili-ties exacerbate the severity of incidents caused by human error and details the application of the systems engineering process to reduce human error given industries' rapidly advancing technology. Technology, Human Performance, and Nuclear Facilities: A Systems Engineering Approach to Reduce Human Error provides a basic understand-ing of Human Error/ P erformance and its relation to industrial operations and advancing technologies incorporated into facilities. The book discusses the context surrounding the complexity of changing technologies at nuclear facili-ties and the potential worsening of problems caused by human error when technology advancements concerning operator interaction with control sys-tems are implemented. It presents how to reduce human error propensity given the incorporation of advanced technology and covers ways to reduce human error using the systems engineering process. Also offered are several concepts related to the operator's involvement in the systems engineering process and the human performance integration with system operational requirements and system testing, evaluation, and validation, and the procedures and training development in the systems engineering process. This book presents empirical evidence for the importance of human performance management in the con-text of nuclear facilities and offers practical recommendations for the improve-ment of this function. Systems engineers, plant/ design engineers, the nuclear industry, plant operations management, and those involved in industrial and nuclear safety will find something of interest in this book.
Explores SMS as it is implemented in aviation based on examples from several countries and regions, namely the UK, USA, and Australia. Presents a socio-historical analysis of how SMSs emerged in high-risk industries. Provides insights to explain the existing limitations of SMS. Proposes new avenues to reach beyond the limitations of SMS. Discusses the COVID-19 pandemic within the framework of risk analysis.
Existing research methods textbooks emphasize the mechanics of HOW to conduct research studies. However, many students fail to see WHY it is important to learn about research because they will never conduct research studies. These students do not become engaged in learning and believe that research courses and textbooks are useless. They do not see the need of developing "research literacy" to understand the applications and limitations of research to their daily lives. This book engages students with a nonmathematical presentation that includes real examples of the consequences of research errors in daily life. The organization facilitates learning with objectives, concepts, description of errors, best practices, and examples. This is a research methods textbook for students who fear research textbooks. The diversity of topics in this book permits application to research methods courses in these academic fields: Economics, Education, Political Science, Psychology, and Sociology. This should be the first book for all students to introduce research and develop "research literacy".
School leaders know that instructional leadership is a crucial aspect of education. However, many of those leaders lack the knowledge and credibility to lead this work. Leaders must be empowered to enter into and guide instructional conversations while building leadership capacity of their teachers in the process. It is easy for administrators to get caught up in the daily managerial tasks of running a school. Passionate educators become principals, however, to make a positive impact on the classroom opportunities and experiences of young people. Because principals may not be experts in all areas of instruction, they must develop their own skills to become genuine participants in instructional conversations. However, the task of a true leader is also to develop the leadership capacity of those around them to ensure that best practices are embraced in all classrooms. The most important and consequential work in schools is happening in the trenches. Principals must commit to join their teachers in that space. With these new skills and a renewed commitment to genuine instructional leadership, administrators can work collaboratively with teachers to transform the educational experience of all students.
1) Demonstrates alternative definitions of the fuzzy safety factor 2) Explains properties of materials and their structural deterioration 3) Covers optimal probabilistic design 4) Aids the reader in solving problems associated with uncertainty
Most approaches that contribute to the design of life-critical systems almost only consider nominal situations where procedures can be developed and used to achieve satisfactory operations. These kinds of approaches lead to rigid ways of doing things and poorly address the needs for flexibility, especially when things go wrong. It is not a matter of human adaptation but of human systems integration (HSI) flexibility. HSI flexibility requires cross-fertilization of appropriate experiences combined with creativity. This book provides risk-management approaches and methods for combining prevention and design. Features: Discusses risk-management approaches and methods for combining prevention and design Examines a transdisciplinary approach to risk management in design and operations of safer life-critical systems Proposes an approach of work analysis during design, which enables design teams to consider HSI issues early enough to fix organizational problems upstream Teaches the combination of prevention and design for safety management This book gathers and analyzes relevant field data to rationalize human and systems activity in various life-critical environments and workplaces, in a systemic manner, and in a variety of safety domains (e.g., aviation, road, navy, manufacturing, hospital, transportation, defense, sport). It further formalizes and analyzes risk-taking experience, expertise, stories about critical events, and scientific and professional literature data to help engineering designers, managers, and health and safety specialists. The text is primarily written for graduate students and professionals working in the fields of occupational health and safety, ergonomics, human factors, cognitive engineering, and human-system integration.
Over the last three decades, higher education institutions have experienced massive changes. In particular, institutions of higher education have been positioned as a means to contribute to the knowledge economy and gain a level of competitive advantage in the global marketplace. Advancing Knowledge in Higher Education: Universities in Turbulent Times addresses ways in which knowledge is shaped, produced, and reworked to meet international demands for productive workforces. Divided into three sections that interrogate the higher education policy context, knowledge production, and knowledge workers, this reference publication focuses on the role of higher education in business value creation and competitive advantage, serving as a useful reference for academicians, professionals, researchers, and students. |
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