The basis for much of medical public health practice comes from epidemiological research. This text describes current statistical tools that are used to analyse the association between possible risk factors and the actual risk of disease. Beginning with a broad conceptual framework on the disease process, it describes commonly used techniques for analysing proportions and disease rates. These are then extended to model fitting, and the common threads of logic that bind the two analytic strategies together are revealed. Each chapter provides a descriptive rationale for the method, a worked example using data from a published study, and an exercise that allows the reader to practice the technique. Each chapter also includes an appendix that provides further details on the theoretical underpinnings of the method. Among the topics covered are Mantel-Haenszel methods, rates, survival analysis, logistic regression, and generalised linear models. Methods for incorporating aspects of study design, such as matching, into the analysis are discussed, and guidance is given for determining the power or the sample size requirements of a study. This text will give readers a foundation in applied statistics and the concepts of model fitting to develop skills in the analysis of epidemiological data.

Risk is the single most prevalent and enduring factor that influences every individual, organization, and society. We often seek protection from negative risk events, but also seek to take advantage of opportunities arising from positive risk events. We may feel overwhelmed by messages encountered in daily interactions with media and society, contributing to a sense of ambiguity over how to act in response to risk-related information and misinformation. We seek to leverage evidence and reason to find our own balance between both positive and negative outcomes in an uncertain world. This ground-breaking book delivers practical concepts and tools that empower readers to leverage innovations in risk science to improve their abilities to interpret, assess, communicate, and handle risk. It provides a practical non-quantitative approach to understanding risk and to making better decisions involving risk. Think RISK covers several key themes in risk science: a) The main goals and strategies for understanding and managing risk b) How readers can inform their risk stances by considering their own individual values and mission c) The difference between risk and safety, and how that difference is critical for managing risk d) The role of psychological factors when understanding and managing risk e) The role of communication when understanding and managing risk, and f) The general importance and incentives for effectively understanding and managing risk. Written for business professionals in all private and public sectors, this book will also be relevant to non-business professionals such as medical practitioners and policymakers and would be an ideal fit for executive education and seminar-style courses in universities, corporate books clubs and training seminars. Because it's based on foundational and scientifically accepted ideas and principles, the book should remain relevant for many years.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

Winner of best smart thinking book 2022 (Business Book Awards) Guardian best books of 2021 'Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read' Tim Harford 'Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book' Rutger Bregman When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a 'soldier' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don't. But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world - which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think. 'With insights that are both sharp and actionable, The Scout Mindset picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often' Adam Grant

This companion to the bestselling Introduction to Health and Safety in Construction is an essential revision aid for students preparing for their written assessments on the NEBOSH National Certificate in Construction Health and Safety. Fully updated to the April 2015 specification, the revision guide provides complete coverage of the syllabus in bite-sized chunks, helping readers to learn and memorise the most important topics. Throughout the book, the guide links back to the Introduction to Health and Safety in Construction textbook, helping students to consolidate their learning. * Small and portable making it ideal for use anywhere: at home, in the classroom or on the move * Suggests useful tips on study and examination technique * Includes practice questions and answers based on NEBOSH exam questions * Everything you need for productive revision in one handy reference The Health and Safety in Construction Revision Guide, written by the renowned health and safety author and former NEBOSH Vice Chairman Ed Ferrett, will be an invaluable tool for students as they prepare for their NEBOSH exam and for their subsequent health and safety work.

Implement practical solutions in business continuity management and organizational resilience guided by international best practice from ISO 22301:2019. Business continuity management and resilience are critical to maintaining a healthy business, but many organizations either do nothing (leaving themselves exposed to disruption), take short cuts (leaving major gaps) or fail to properly engage senior stakeholders. This book is a straightforward guide to delivering an effective business continuity capability, including practical solutions built from the author's personal experience managing hundreds of projects in a variety of business settings. Business Continuity Management compares incident management, crisis response and business continuity and how to explain their importance to senior decision makers to ensure appropriate investment. Readers will benefit from case studies of organizational crises and disruptions, including Home Depot, Nissan, RBS, Facebook, Equifax and KFC, and an exploration of lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. With key performance indicators, templates and checklists covering planning, response, reporting and assurance, this book is the essential reference for business continuity and resilience which can be tailored to any organization.

Risk and danger are culturally conditioned ideas. They are shaped by pressures of social life and accepted notions of accountability. The risk analyses that are increasingly being utilised by politicians, aid programmes and business ignore the insights to be gained from social anthropology which can be applied to modern industrial society.
In this collection of recent essays, Mary Douglas develops a programme for studying risk and blame that follows from ideas originally proposed in Purity and Danger. She suggests how political and cultural bias can be incorporated into the study of risk perception and in the discussion of responsibility in public policy.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203430867

Your business reputation can take years to build--and mere minutes to destroy

The range of business threats is evolving rapidly but your organization can thrive and gain a competitive advantage with your business vision for enterprise risk management. Trends affecting markets--events in the global financial markets, changing technologies, environmental priorities, dependency on intellectual property--all underline how important it is to keep up to speed on the latest financial risk management practices and procedures.

This popular book on enterprise risk management has been expanded and updated to include new themes and current trends for today's risk practitioner. It features up-to-date materials on new threats, lessons from the recent financial crisis, and how businesses need to protect themselves in terms of business interruption, security, project and reputational risk management.

Project risk management is now a mature discipline with an international standard for its implementation. This book reinforces that project risk management needs to be systematic, but also that it must be embedded to become part of an organization's DNA. This book promotes techniques that will help you implement a methodical and broad approach to risk management.The author is a well-known expert and boasts a wealth of experience in project and enterprise risk managementEasy-to-navigate structure breaks down the risk management process into stages to aid implementationExamines the external influences that bring sources of business risk that are beyond your controlProvides a handy chapter with tips for commissioning consultants for business risk management services

It is a business imperative to have a clear vision for risk management. "Simple Tools and Techniques for Enterprise Risk Management, Second Edition" shows you the way.

This book helps break down and analyze the process of solid decision-making. From the examination of decisions that went poorly, to a concrete set of steps to consider when making new decisions, the process in this book helps decision makers feel confident in their decisions and be able to communicate their process clearly. Using the process of moral imagination to make decision includes gathering all perspectives, imagining creative solutions and choosing empathetically. While looking at real world, predominantly education-based examples, readers are encouraged to see where decisions fell apart and learn how to plan around blind spots. This process includes solutions for common decision-making mistakes and ways to reflect and improve on what is to come.

Bow Tie Methodology (BTM) consists of two methods, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA), which are connected by a single event. The methodology is holistic and provides the tools and pre-event analysis, which is also called the risk calculations, and post-event analysis, also called the risk mitigations, of quality and safety related events. There are plenty of articles or chapters on this methodology, however there is no book that covers everything in one place. The book is filled with examples taken from the aviation industry and elaborates theory implemented in practice, which gives quality and safety practitioners a guidance on how to use and apply BTM in practice.

Bow Tie Methodology (BTM) consists of two methods, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA), which are connected by a single event. The methodology is holistic and provides the tools and pre-event analysis, which is also called the risk calculations, and post-event analysis, also called the risk mitigations, of quality and safety related events. There are plenty of articles or chapters on this methodology, however there is no book that covers everything in one place. The book is filled with examples taken from the aviation industry and elaborates theory implemented in practice, which gives quality and safety practitioners a guidance on how to use and apply BTM in practice.

The Environmental Management Revision Guide: For the NEBOSH Certificate in Environmental Management is the perfect revision aid for students preparing to take their NEBOSH Certificate in Environmental Management. As well as being a handy companion volume to Brian Waters' NEBOSH-endorsed textbook Introduction to Environmental Management, it will also serve as a useful aide-memoire for those in environmental management roles. The book aims to: Provide practical revision guidance and strategies for students Highlight the key information for each learning outcome of the current NEBOSH syllabus Give students opportunities to test their knowledge based on NEBOSH style questions and additional exercises Provide details of guidance documents publically available that students will be able to refer to. The revision guide is fully aligned to the current NEBOSH syllabus, providing complete coverage in bite-sized chunks, helping students to learn and memorise the most important topics. Throughout the book, the guide refers back to the Introduction to Environmental Management, helping students to consolidate their learning.

Artificial lighting has become so commonplace that it can sometimes be taken for granted and therein lies a possible minefield of related health and safety problems. Lighting for Health and Safety guides the reader through the fundamentals of vision and lighting. It highlights the potential health and safety problems that can develop as a consequence of inadequate lighting and, further, advises of the necessary remedies available, in order to produce optimum lighting conditions for the workplace.This book will therefore assist the practitioner in compliance with legislation.First book to address this fieldWritten for the practising professional

If our goal is Education for Knowing, as the title says, then we need to be guided by a conception of what knowing is. For example, we can all agree that there are "math facts" that students need to learn, and we can agree that there are general concepts and laws that students should be acquainted with. But is there more involved, perhaps something like nurturing in students a desire to probe deeper into the workings of thing? Or developing a capacity to explain why things work the way they do? Our conceptions of what genuine knowing is serve as guides to what we think the goal of education is, and they tell us how to "build a student." However, as it turns out, there are multiple conceptions of what knowing truly involves, and these conceptions tend to be different for different sets of education stakeholders such as parents and their children, school administrators, and educational researchers. Understanding this diversity of conceptions of knowing will make it easier for representatives of the different stakeholder groups to work together to accomplish the goal of building knowing students.

This book presents a practical framework for the teaching of thinking skills and problem-solving with children across Key Stages 2 and 3. Using examples of topics from the National Curriculum, teachers are presented with classroom techniques and activities, which systematically develop these skills. While accommodating the needs of all learners, the book caters for the need to differentiate learning activities to extend the more able learners. Included are suggested activities for developing thinking and problem-solving skills relating to the National Numeracy Curriculum, the National Literacy Strategy and the National Science Curriculum. The book also includes activities to support the development of thinking and problem-solving skills in information communication technology (ICT), models of successful practice, and photocopiable activities. The skills and strategies suggested all derive from real classrooms and teachers and as such are practical and useful. There is clear guidance on adopting certain teaching techniques, lesson planning and organization. This book will be useful for teachers and headteachers working at Key Stages 2 and 3, all SENCOs and Advisory Teachers.

Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: * An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas * Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions * Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management * Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified * Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Threats to an organization's operations, such as fraud, IT disruption or poorly designed products, could result in serious losses. Understand the key components of effective operational risk management with this essential book for risk professionals and students. Fundamentals of Operational Risk Management outlines how to implement a sound operational risk management framework which is embedded in day-to-day business activities. It covers the main operational risk tools including categorisation, risk and control self-assessment and scenario analysis, and explores the importance of risk appetite and tolerance. With case studies of major operational risk events to illustrate each concept, this book demonstrates the value of ORM and how it fits with other types of risk management. There is also guidance on the regulatory treatment of operational risk and the importance of risk culture in any organization. Master the essentials and improve the practice of operational risk management with this comprehensive guide.

In Occupational Risk Control, Derek Viner brings together the historical and theoretical aspects of his subject into a coherent whole and then connects them with the needs both of practitioners and educators. The historical background, from early societies through the industrial revolution and into the early 20th Century is discussed as a means of understanding the individual and community prejudices and presumptions that underly society and that impede our effective control of risk. The author then brings together and develops the practical application of three hitherto disparate strands of scientific understanding of risk: energy damage, risk philosophy and engineering risk analysis. He also draws attention to the fact that the geological and botanical sciences can contribute much to our understanding of how to set about classifying (and hence better understanding) the phenomenon of damage and loss. To this mix, is added the contribution of law to our understanding of moral obligations for the control of risk and that of statistics to our understanding of the management of uncertainty. Viner argues that amongst the observable consequences of the absence of a holistic and science-based approach is ineffective legislation with limited vision as well as the prevalence of belief-based commercial risk and safety management systems of unproven value. The net effect of this absence, he suggests, is to be seen in the periodic occurrence of disasters of the magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico explosion and oil spill.

Policy-making has always involved uncertainty; however the presence of unknowns has become far more conspicuous and problematic in recent times. One important way in which policy-makers have increasingly sought to deal with such uncertainty is through approaches rooted in understandings of risk. This book comprises a rather diverse collection of six chapters, alongside one more explicitly theoretical introduction, each taking up a distinct perspective in scrutinising the relationship between policy, risk and uncertainty. Important concerns addressed within these different studies include: how risk-governance policies are shaped by risk awareness (or a lack thereof) and the mediating role of trust; the framing of policy through an emphasis on particular risks and the corresponding impact on societal beliefs, discourses and institutional power; the organisational processes which lead to some risks being tackled while others are neglected; and processes of (de-) politicising uncertainty at the interface between scientists and policy-makers. Contributors explore trans-national institutions, national bodies, and local government - within diverse geographical contexts including China, Brazil, the Baltic Sea, Australia, the UK, and Europe. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Risk Research.

American schools should be laboratories for modeling democratic concepts. However, our school systems are the antithesis of democratically run organizations. Teaching professionals, students and parents have very little power or genuine influence in decision making. Reframing Decision Making in Education begins by describing the current status of American schools and concludes with a description of the organizational structure, leadership, and decision making practices necessary to make our schools operate in a manner congruent with those democratic principles we espouse as a country. This book describe a democratic structure and a decision making matrix to help reform leaders begin such an endeavor. Woven through each chapter is a fictional story of Principal Samantha Levy. We see Ms. Levy's struggles as she begins the process of making change in her high school and its impact on those around her.

When faced with a 'human error' problem, you may be tempted to ask 'Why didn't these people watch out better?' Or, 'How can I get my people more engaged in safety?' You might think you can solve your safety problems by telling your people to be more careful, by reprimanding the miscreants, by issuing a new rule or procedure and demanding compliance. These are all expressions of 'The Bad Apple Theory' where you believe your system is basically safe if it were not for those few unreliable people in it. Building on its successful predecessors, the third edition of The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error' will help you understand a new way of dealing with a perceived 'human error' problem in your organization. It will help you trace how your organization juggles inherent trade-offs between safety and other pressures and expectations, suggesting that you are not the custodian of an already safe system. It will encourage you to start looking more closely at the performance that others may still call 'human error', allowing you to discover how your people create safety through practice, at all levels of your organization, mostly successfully, under the pressure of resource constraints and multiple conflicting goals. The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error' will help you understand how to move beyond 'human error'; how to understand accidents; how to do better investigations; how to understand and improve your safety work. You will be invited to think creatively and differently about the safety issues you and your organization face. In each, you will find possibilities for a new language, for different concepts, and for new leverage points to influence your own thinking and practice, as well as that of your colleagues and organization. If you are faced with a 'human error' problem, abandon the fallacy of a quick fix. Read this book.

In this book, two experts on the topic raise the question of why many ERM programmes end up as box-checking silos with almost no connection to important decision-making processes, whereas others are empowered and end up having a profound impact on the firm's culture, governance structures, and strategy process. The book establishes a path to empowered ERM by drawing on insights from theory and hard-won lessons from practice. Success factors enabling this transition are thoroughly discussed in a start-to-finish narrative describing the theoretical underpinnings of ERM, its proven best practices, and onto more advanced topic such as risk budgeting and the integration of ERM into strategic decision-making.

DLP denotes a dynamic-linear modeling and optimization approach to computational decision support for resource planning problems that arise, typically, within the natural resource sciences and the disciplines of operations research and operational engineering. It integrates techniques of dynamic programming (DP) and linear programming (LP) and can be realized in an immediate, practical and usable way. Simultaneously DLP connotes a broad and very general modeling/ algorithmic concept that has numerous areas of application and possibilities for extension. Two motivating examples provide a linking thread through the main chapters, and an appendix provides a demonstration program, executable on a PC, for hands-on experience with the DLP approach.

A Toolkit for Department Chairs is designed to give academic administrators the skills they need in order to do their jobs more effectively. Combining case studies, scenarios, practical advice, and problem solving activities, the book offers chairs a valuable resource for negotiating the real-life challenges they face as academic leaders. Many of the case studies and scenarios included in this book have been field tested by the co-authors in over thirty years of administrative training workshops. Current and aspiring department chairs will discover many new tools that they can include in their administrative toolkits from this practical, accessible book. A Toolkit for Department Chairs works well as a personal resource as well as a training manual for leadership programs and textbook for pre- and in-service education for department chairs. Some additional key features of this book include: *Practicality in that it offers specific strategies to address the many challenges faced by department chairs. *Adaptability for use as an individual study guide, textbook for leadership programs, or discussion guide for groups of academic administrators. *Utility in that it fills a demonstrated need in the field of higher education since 96-97% of current department chairs have received no formal training in their administrative responsibilities. *Easy of use through short, sometimes humorous scenarios and case studies that cause readers to reflect on their own administrative approaches.