Richard Pettigrew offers an extended investigation into a particular way of justifying the rational principles that govern our credences (or degrees of belief). The main principles that he justifies are the central tenets of Bayesian epistemology, though many other related principles are discussed along the way. These are: Probabilism, the claims that credences should obey the laws of probability; the Principal Principle, which says how credences in hypotheses about the objective chances should relate to credences in other propositions; the Principle of Indifference, which says that, in the absence of evidence, we should distribute our credences equally over all possibilities we entertain; and Conditionalization, the Bayesian account of how we should plan to respond when we receive new evidence. Ultimately, then, this book is a study in the foundations of Bayesianism. To justify these principles, Pettigrew looks to decision theory. He treats an agent's credences as if they were a choice she makes between different options, gives an account of the purely epistemic utility enjoyed by different sets of credences, and then appeals to the principles of decision theory to show that, when epistemic utility is measured in this way, the credences that violate the principles listed above are ruled out as irrational. The account of epistemic utility set out here is the veritist's: the sole fundamental source of epistemic utility for credences is their accuracy. Thus, Pettigrew conducts an investigation in the version of Iepistemic utility theory known as accuracy-first epistemology. The book can also be read as an extended reply on behalf of the veritist to the evidentialist's objection that veritism cannot account for certain evidential principles of credal rationality, such as the Principal Principle, the Principle of Indifference, and Conditionalization.

A framework for formalizing risk management thinking in today's complex business environment

Security Risk Management Body of Knowledge details the security risk management process in a format that can easily be applied by executive managers and security risk management practitioners. Integrating knowledge, competencies, methodologies, and applications, it demonstrates how to document and incorporate best-practice concepts from a range of complementary disciplines.

Developed to align with International Standards for Risk Management?such as ISO 31000?it enables professionals to apply security risk management (SRM) principles to specific areas of practice. Guidelines are provided for: Access Management; Business Continuity and Resilience; Command, Control, and Communications; Consequence Management and Business Continuity Management; Counter-Terrorism; Crime Prevention through Environmental Design; Crisis Management; Environmental Security; Events and Mass Gatherings; Executive Protection; Explosives and Bomb Threats; Home-Based Work; Human Rights and Security; Implementing Security Risk Management; Intellectual Property Protection; Intelligence Approach to SRM; Investigations and Root Cause Analysis; Maritime Security and Piracy; Mass Transport Security; Organizational Structure; Pandemics; Personal Protective Practices; Psych-ology of Security; Red Teaming and Scenario Modeling; Resilience and Critical Infrastructure Protection; Asset-, Function-, Project-, and Enterprise-Based Security Risk Assessment; Security Specifications and Postures; Security Training; Supply Chain Security; Transnational Security; and Travel Security.

Security Risk Management Body of Knowledge is supported by a series of training courses, DVD seminars, tools, and templates. This is an indispensable resource for risk and security professional, students, executive management, and line managers with security responsibilities.

Lara Buchak sets out an original account of the principles that govern rational decision-making in the face of risk. A distinctive feature of these decisions is that individuals are forced to consider how their choices will turn out under various circumstances, and decide how to trade off the possibility that a choice will turn out well against the possibility that it will turn out poorly. The orthodox view is that there is only one acceptable way to do this: rational individuals must maximize expected utility. Buchak's contention, however, is that the orthodox theory (expected utility theory) dictates an overly narrow way in which considerations about risk can play a role in an individual's choices. Combining research from economics and philosophy, she argues for an alternative, more permissive, theory of decision-making: one that allows individuals to pay special attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario (among other 'global features' of gambles). This theory, risk-weighted expected utility theory, better captures the preferences of actual decision-makers. Furthermore, it isolates the distinct roles that beliefs, desires, and risk-attitudes play in decision-making. Finally, contra the orthodox view, Buchak argues that decision-makers whose preferences can be captured by risk-weighted expected utility theory are rational. Thus, Risk and Rationality is in many ways a vindication of the ordinary decision-maker-particularly his or her attitude towards risk-from the point of view of even ideal rationality.

Whilst a great deal of progress has been made in recent decades, concerns persist about the course of the social sciences. Progress in these disciplines is hard to assess and core scientific goals such as discovery, transparency, reproducibility, and cumulation remain frustratingly out of reach. Despite having technical acumen and an array tools at their disposal, today's social scientists may be only slightly better equipped to vanquish error and construct an edifice of truth than their forbears - who conducted analyses with slide rules and wrote up results with typewriters. This volume considers the challenges facing the social sciences, as well as possible solutions. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of the subject matter. What are the rules and norms governing behavior in the social sciences? What kinds of research, and which sorts of researcher, succeed and fail under the current system? In what ways does this incentive structure serve, or subvert, the goal of scientific progress?

Risk analysis is not a narrowly defined set of applications. Rather, it is widely used to assess and manage a plethora of hazards that threaten dire implications. However, too few people actually understand what risk analysis can help us accomplish and, even among experts, knowledge is often limited to one or two applications. Explaining Risk Analysis frames risk analysis as a holistic planning process aimed at making better risk-informed decisions and emphasizing the connections between the parts. This framework requires an understanding of basic terms, including explanations of why there is no universal agreement about what risk means, much less risk assessment, risk management and risk analysis. Drawing on a wide range of case studies, the book illustrates the ways in which risk analysis can help lead to better decisions in a variety of scenarios, including the destruction of chemical weapons, management of nuclear waste and the response to passenger rail threats. The book demonstrates how the risk analysis process and the data, models and processes used in risk analysis will clarify, rather than obfuscate, decision-makers' options. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of risk assessment, risk management, public health, environmental science, environmental economics and environmental psychology.

When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.

The role of designers has traditionally been to design a building so that it conforms to accepted local building codes. The safety of workers is left up to the contractor building the designs. Research shows, however, that designers can have an especially strong influence on construction safety during the concept, preliminary and detailed design phases. This book establishes the new knowledge and conceptual frameworks necessary to develop a mobile computing-enabled knowledge management system that can help reduce the high rate of construction falls. There are three main objectives of this book: 1. To create a new Prevention through Design (PtD) knowledge base to model the relationships between fall risks and design decisions; 2. To develop a PtD mobile App to assist building designers in fall prevention through design; 3. To evaluate the practical implications of the PtD mobile App for the construction industry, especially for building designers and workers. The cutting edge technologies explored in this book have the potential to significantly reduce the rate of serious injuries that occur in the global construction industry. This is essential reading for researchers and advanced students of construction management with an interest in safety or mobile technologies.

Assessing Command and Control Effectiveness: Dealing with a Changing World offers a description of the current state of Command and Control (C2) research in imperfect settings, showing how a research process should assess, analyse and communicate results to the development cycle of methods, work, manning and C2-technology. Special attention is given to the development of C2 research methods to meet the current and coming needs. The authors also look forward towards a future where effective assessment of C2 abilities are even more crucial, for instance in agile organisations. The purpose of the C2 research is to improve the process and make it more effective while still saving time and money. Research methods have to be chosen carefully to be effective and simple, yet provide results of high quality. The methodological concerns are a major consideration when working under such circumstances. Furthermore, there is often a need for a swift iterative development cycle, and thus a demand to quickly deliver results from the research process. This book explains how field research experimentation can be quick, simple and effective, being able to draw valid conclusions even when sample sizes are small and resources are limited, collecting empirical data using measures and procedures that are minimally intrusive.

Today's instantaneous and ever-present news stream frequently presents a sensationalized or otherwise distorted view of the world, demanding constant critical engagement on the part of everyday citizens. The Critical Thinker's Guide to Bias, Lies, and Politics in the News reveals the power of critical thinking to make sense of overwhelming and often subjective media by detecting ideology, slant, and spin at work. Building off the Richard Paul and Linda Elder framework for critical thinking, Elder focuses on the internal logic of the news as well as societal influences on the media while illustrating essential elements of trustworthy journalism. With up-to-date discussions of social media, digital journalism, and political maneuvering inside and outside the fourth estate, Fact or Fake is an essential handbook for those who want to stay informed but not influenced by our modern news reporting systems.

Distinguished authors like Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb have written much about the flaws in the human brain when it comes time to make a decision. Our intuitions and passions frequently fail us, leading to outcomes we don't want.
In this book, Eyal Winter, Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for the Study of Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, wonders: why? If our emotions are so destructive and unreliable, why has evolution left us with them? The answer is that, even though they may not behave in a purely logical manner, our emotions frequently lead us to better, safer, more optimal outcomes.
In fact, as Winter discovers, there is often logic in emotion, and emotion in logic. For instance, many mutually beneficial commitments--such as marriage, or being a member of a team--are only possible when underscored by emotion rather than deliberate thought. The difference between pleasurable music and bad noise is mathematically precise; yet it is also the result of evolution. And our inherent overconfidence--the mathematically impossible fact that most people see themselves as above average--affords us advantages in competing for things we benefit from, like food and money and romance. Other subjects illuminated in the book include the rationality of seemingly illogical feelings like trust, anger, shame, ego, and generosity.
Already a bestseller in Israel, "Rational Emotions" brings together game theory, evolution, and behavioral science to produce a surprising and very persuasive defense of how we think, even when we don't.

Environmental Enforcement Authorities (EEAs), sometimes called Environmental Protection Agencies (EPAs), are the regulatory, monitoring and enforcement agencies of national, state/provincial and local governments worldwide responsible for implementing, monitoring and enforcing environmental legislation. This one-of-a-kind, authoritative handbook offers a comprehensive assessment of the principles and best practice of EEAs throughout the world with a focus on Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia, east and south-east Asia and various other OECD, transition and developing countries.The book assesses structures, expertise and capacity, financing, permitting, monitoring, inspection, enforcement and EEA performance and future directions. It also identifies best practice for creating or improving EEAs. It offers substantial information for industry on the nature of compliance with environmental regulations as well as vital information for professionals, consultants, NGOs and researchers working at the interface between government EEAs and industry.

Actuaries have access to a wealth of individual data in pension and insurance portfolios, but rarely use its full potential. This book will pave the way, from methods using aggregate counts to modern developments in survival analysis. Based on the fundamental concept of the hazard rate, Part I shows how and why to build statistical models, based on data at the level of the individual persons in a pension scheme or life insurance portfolio. Extensive use is made of the R statistics package. Smooth models, including regression and spline models in one and two dimensions, are covered in depth in Part II. Finally, Part III uses multiple-state models to extend survival models beyond the simple life/death setting, and includes a brief introduction to the modern counting process approach. Practising actuaries will find this book indispensable, and students will find it helpful when preparing for their professional examinations.

What is a fair distribution of resources and other goods when individuals are partly responsible for their achievements? This book develops a theory of fairness incorporating a concern for personal responsibility, opportunities and freedom. With a critical perspective, it makes accessible the recent developments in economics and philosophy that define social justice in terms of equal opportunities. It also proposes new perspectives and original ideas. The book separates mathematical sections from the rest of the text, so that the main concepts and ideas are easily accessible to non-technical readers. It is often thought that responsibility is a complex notion, but this monograph proposes a simple analytical framework that makes it possible to disentangle the different concepts of fairness that deal with neutralizing inequalities for which the individuals are not held responsible, rewarding their effort, respecting their choices, or staying neutral with respect to their responsibility sphere. It dwells on paradoxes and impossibilities only as a way to highlight important ethical options and always proposes solutions and reasonable compromises among the conflicting values surrounding equality and responsibility. The theory is able to incorporate disincentive problems and is illustrated in the examination of applied policy issues such as: income redistribution when individuals may be held responsible for their choices of labor supply or education; social and private insurance when individuals may be held responsible for their risky lifestyle; second chance policies; the measurement of inequality of opportunities and social mobility.

This book outlines risk management theory systematically and comprehensively while distinguishing it from academic fields such as insurance theory. In addition, the book builds a risk financing theory that is independent of insurance theory. Until now, risk management (RM) theory has been discussed while the framework of the theory has remained unclear. However, this book, unlike previous books of this type, provides risk management theory after presenting a framework for it. Enterprise risk management (ERM) is seen differently depending on one's position. For accountants, it is a means for internal control to prevent accounting fraud, whereas for financial institutions, it quantifies the risk that administrators can take to meet supervisory standards. Therefore, most of the ERM outlines are written to suit the intended uses or topics, with no systematic RM overviews. This book discusses a systematic RM theory linked to the framework of it, unlike previous books that were written according to topic. After the Enron scandal in December 2001 and WorldCom accounting fraud in June 2002, several laws were enacted or revised throughout the world, such as the SOX Act(Sarbanes-Oxley Act) in the United States and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law and Companies Act in Japan. In this process, the COSO(Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of Treadway Commission) published their ERM framework, while the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) published their RM framework. The author believes that the competition between these frameworks was an opportunity to systematize RM theory and greatly develop it as an independent discipline from insurance. On the other hand, the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, caused enormous losses. Also, because pandemics and cyber risks are increasing, businesses must have a comprehensive and systematic ERM for these risks associated with their business activities

Planning and management is increasingly problematic in the real-world environment of spiralling change and uncertainty. Knowledge is incomplete, values are in dispute and the decisions of others are often unpredictable.

Problem structuring methods (PSMs) are now widely accepted within Operational Research and the systems movement, and have generated an impressive record of high-profile applications. This new edition provides easier access to PSMs. Each of five methods is presented from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. The justification for each approach is explained, and an illustration of applying each method is given in a practical case study. New topics in line with the many advances in the field of problem structuring methods are explored and multimethodology is introduced for the first time.

This book does not peddle methods for optimum solutions, but instead shows you how to facilitate an enriched and fluid decision-making process. Participatory methods are explained to assist the formulation and re-formulation of problem solving in an uncertain world.

Offering contributions from leading thinkers in the field and building on the success of the first edition, this theoretical guide and practical source will prove invaluable to students of management, systems and OR and to practitioners negotiating real-life problems in today's complex, conflicting and uncertain business climate.

Reviews of the first edition:

'.....probably the most referenced book by JORS authors over the last 10 years.'
J. Ranyard, Journal of Operational Research Society 51 (12), 2001

' . . . a thought provoking collection of articles, delivering a strong message about the way decision analysis is moving.'
Helen Couclelis, University of California at Santa Barbara, USA

' . . .sets out extremely clearly what soft OR is about . . . the editor and authors deserve all credit.'
M.C. Jackson, Systems Practice

The Handbook of Rational and Social Choice provides an overview of issues arising in work on the foundations of decision theory and social choice over the past three decades. Drawing on work by economic theorists mainly, but also with contributions from political science, philosophy and psychology, the collection shows how the related areas of decision theory and social choice have developed in their applications and moved well beyond the basic models of expected utility and utilitarian approaches to welfare economics.
Containing twenty-three contributions, in many cases by leading figures in their fields, the handbook shows how the normative foundations of economics have changed dramatically as more general and explicit models of utility and group choice have been developed. This is perhaps the first time these developments have been brought together in a manner that seeks to identify and make accessible the recent themes and developments that have been of particular interest to researchers in recent years. The collection will be of particular value to researchers in economics with interests in utility or welfare but it will also be of interest to any social scientist or philosopher interested in theories of rationality or group decision-making.