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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
The purpose of this book is to articulate an aspirational vision for education, one that deeply engages students in complex and meaningful work and prepares students for the personal, social, and societal problems and opportunities facing them and our society. However, simply adopting an aspirational vision for a high quality learning environment isn't the real challenge. Most educators, students, and parents don't need a lot of convincing that schools can and should do more. Many educators espouse ambitious goals for their students, articulating the need for "21st century skills," and classrooms that are more innovative, responsive, and collaborative. However, so many of our classrooms fall woefully short of these goals. That's because knowing the why and the what is sometimes not enough. Teachers need help with the how. Accordingly, this book does not stop at simply articulating a vision of the possible; the book also helps individuals visualize what it can look like, and supports teachers, parents, and other engaged community members as they work towards closing the gap between what is possible and what is currently realized.
Society at large tends to misunderstand what safety is all about. It is not just the absence of harm. When nothing bad happens over a period of time, how do you know you are safe? In reality, safety is what you and your people do moment by moment, day by day to protect assets from harm and to control the hazards inherent in your operations. This is the purpose of risk-based thinking, the key element of the six building blocks of Human and Organizational Performance (H&OP). Generally, H&OP provides a risk-based approach to managing human performance in operations. But, specifically, risk-based thinking enables foresight and flexibility-even when surprised-to do what is necessary to protect assets from harm but also achieve mission success despite ongoing stresses or shocks to the operation. Although you cannot prepare for every adverse scenario, you can be ready for almost anything. When risk-based thinking is integrated into the DNA of an organization's way of doing business, people will be ready for most unexpected situations. Eventually, safety becomes a core value, not a priority to be negotiated with others depending on circumstances. This book provides a coherent perspective on what executives and line managers within operational environments need to focus on to efficiently and effectively control, learn, and adapt.
Risk management and contingency planning has really come to the fore since the first edition of this book was originally published. Computer failure, fire, fraud, robbery, accident, environmental damage, new regulations - business is constantly under threat. But how do you determine which are the most important dangers for your business? What can you do to lessen the chances of their happening - and minimize the impact if they do happen? In this comprehensive volume Kit Sadgrove shows how you can identify - and control - the relevant threats and ensure that your company will survive. He begins by asking 'What is risk?', 'How do we assess it?' and 'How can it be managed?' He goes on to examine in detail the key danger areas including finance, product quality, health and safety, security and the environment. With case studies, self-assessment exercises and checklists, each chapter looks systematically at what is involved and enables you to draw up action plans that could, for example, provide a defence in law or reduce your insurance premium. The new edition reflects the changes in the global environment, the new risks that have emerged and the effect of macroeconomic factors on business profitability and success. The author has also included a set of case studies to illustrate his ideas in practice.
This companion to the bestselling Introduction to Health and Safety at Work will help you prepare for the written assessments on the NEBOSH National General Certificate in Occupational Health and Safety (2019 specification). It provides complete coverage of the syllabus in bite-sized chunks and will help you learn and memorise the most important areas, with links provided back to the main Introduction to Health and Safety at Work text to help you consolidate your learning. Small and portable, making it ideal for use anywhere: at home, in the classroom or on the move Includes specimen questions and answers based on recent examination papers Everything you need for productive revision in one handy reference source This revision guide is written by an experienced lecturer and former Vice Chairman of NEBOSH, who has spent many years helping students become accredited by NEBOSH.
Experienced base jumpers and other extreme sports athletes have one unwritten rule: self-knowledge. The way you think and the choices you make determine who you are and who you will become. If you know yourself, you will dare to take risks, to go your own way and to change. This rule goes for professionals who aim for high performances too. If you want your performances to have a positive drive, you first have to get to know yourself. Dare to Jump helps you to overcome your fears and gives you three power skills with which you can become the best version of yourself. Someone with a boundless mind-set, a sharp focus and a great amount of trust. You learn why focus is the new IQ, how to train yourself to enter the right flow, and how you build the level of trust within your team.
The consequences of taking on risk can be ruinous to personal finances, professional careers, corporate survivability, and even nation states. Yet many risk managers do not have a clear understanding of the basics. Requiring no statistical or mathematical background, The Fundamental Rules of Risk Management gives you the knowledge to successfully handle risk in your organization. The book begins with a deep investigation into the behavioral roots of risk. Using both historical and contemporary contexts, author Nigel Da Costa Lewis carefully details the indisputable truths surrounding many of the behavioral biases that induce risk. He exposes the fallacy of the wisdom of experts, explains why you cannot rely on regulators, outlines the characteristics of the "glad game," and demonstrates how high intelligence or lack thereof can lead to loss of hard-earned wealth. He also discusses the weaknesses and failures of modern risk management. Moving on to elements often overlooked by risk managers, Dr. Lewis traces the link between corporate governance and risk management. He then covers core lessons surrounding the role of risk managers as well as the difficult subject of integrated, single lens analysis of risk. The book also explores aspects of spreadsheet risk and draws on lessons learned in the information systems and software engineering communities to provide guidance on selecting the right risk management system. It concludes with a discussion on the most dominant of risk measures-value at risk. Having a clear understanding about risk separates successful professionals, companies, and economies from history's forgotten failures. Through examples and case studies, this thought-provoking book shows how the rules of risk can work to protect and enhance investor value.
Global competition is forcing reliability and other professionals to work closely during the product design and manufacturing phase. Because of this collaboration, reliability, usability, and quality principles are being applied across many diverse sectors of the economy. This book offers the principles, methods, and procedures for these areas in one resource. This book brings together the areas of reliability, usability, and quality for those working in diverse areas to allow them to be exposed to activities that can help them perform their tasks more effectively. This is the only book that covers these areas together in this manner and written in such a way that no previous knowledge is required to understand it. The sources of the material presented are included in the reference section at the end of each chapter along with examples and solutions to test reader comprehension. Applied Reliability, Usability, and Quality for Engineers is useful to design, manufacturing, and systems engineers, as well as manufacturing managers, reliability, usability and, quality specialists. It can also be helpful to graduate, senior undergraduate students, and instructors.
If a major event such as a terrorist attack, 7.2 earthquake, tsunami, or hacker attack were to disrupt business operations, would your organization be prepared to respond to the financial, political, and social impacts? In order for your company to be resilient, it must be ready to respond and recover quickly from the impact of such events. Business continuity is the discipline that can help your organization become truly resilient.
Non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods have dominated most of
the fields of applied research and technology over the last twenty
years. These techniques provide information on the functional
efficiency of materials and structures without causing any
structural impact on the structure itself. Their use enables the
monitoring of the structural integrity, the structural condition as
well as the service in-duced degradation of materials and
structures during their service life. In this respect, they address
a vast field of applications ranging from the aerospace and
automotive industry to civil engineering structures and
material This volume comprises scientific papers presented during the Fifth Conference on Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing (Ioannina, Greece, 19 21 September 2011). A broad spectrum of related research was presented during the course of the conference, including optical, acoustic, thermal, electrical and electromagnetic methods together with imaging tomographic and signal processing techniques. Special attention was given to NDE for Civil Engineering Structures and for the first time in the conference series, a multiple session on NDE for the protection of cultural heritage was organized. Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing V contains contributions by experts in this field from 22 different countries worldwide. Reflecting the stateof-the-art in Non-Destructive Evaluation, the book will prove to be a valuable companion to students, engineers and industrial partners who are active in the field of non-destructive evaluation and testing. This volume will also provide students and researchers with insight into the focal points of contemporary research efforts in the field of non-destructive evaluation.
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
Across the world, organizations continue to be damaged and brought down by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This is despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers that have been put in place in response. So why isn't compliance working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and succeed. Written for any organization and businesses, this book provides clear, thorough and practical guidance for practitioners and decision-makers. It explains in layman's terms the skills, tools and mindset needed to develop and deliver a best practice compliance and ethics programme - one that meets the requirements made by law, stakeholders and society, and protects your organization from risk of fines, penalties and reputational damage. But this is also a book for all those interested in how to build employee engagement and motivation. The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics demonstrates the value - including competitive advantage, career satisfaction, employee and customer loyalty, and brand enhancement - that a truly effective compliance and ethics programme can bring, when it works hand in hand with a values-based culture of shared ownership.
Most approaches that contribute to the design of life-critical systems almost only consider nominal situations where procedures can be developed and used to achieve satisfactory operations. These kinds of approaches lead to rigid ways of doing things and poorly address the needs for flexibility, especially when things go wrong. It is not a matter of human adaptation but of human systems integration (HSI) flexibility. HSI flexibility requires cross-fertilization of appropriate experiences combined with creativity. This book provides risk-management approaches and methods for combining prevention and design. Features: Discusses risk-management approaches and methods for combining prevention and design Examines a transdisciplinary approach to risk management in design and operations of safer life-critical systems Proposes an approach of work analysis during design, which enables design teams to consider HSI issues early enough to fix organizational problems upstream Teaches the combination of prevention and design for safety management This book gathers and analyzes relevant field data to rationalize human and systems activity in various life-critical environments and workplaces, in a systemic manner, and in a variety of safety domains (e.g., aviation, road, navy, manufacturing, hospital, transportation, defense, sport). It further formalizes and analyzes risk-taking experience, expertise, stories about critical events, and scientific and professional literature data to help engineering designers, managers, and health and safety specialists. The text is primarily written for graduate students and professionals working in the fields of occupational health and safety, ergonomics, human factors, cognitive engineering, and human-system integration.
One of the seventeen critical infrastructures vital to the security of the United States, the water supply system remains largely unprotected from the threat of terrorism, including possible revenge by Al Qaeda over the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Recognizing and identifying prospective events of terrorism against the water infrastructure is critical to the protection of the nation, as the consequences triggered by a terrorist attack on the water supply would be devastating. Risk Assessment for Water Infrastructure: Safety and Security provides a unique quantitative risk assessment methodology for protection and security against terrorist contamination, vandalism, attacks against dams, and other threats to water supply systems. Focusing on the human safety, environmental, and economic consequences triggered by potential terrorist attacks and other threats, the book presents: The development of an integrated approach of risk assessment based upon the cumulative prospect theory The qualitative/quantitative processes and models for security and safe facility operations as required by EPA, DHS, and other governmental and regulatory agencies The application of an integrated model to the risk assessment of surface water, dams, wells, wastewater treatment facilities, reservoirs, and aqueducts of large urban regions The development of intelligence analysis incorporating risk assessment for terrorism prevention Finally, the book presents the legal and regulatory requirements and policy related to the protection and security of water infrastructure from terrorism and natural hazards to both human health and the environment. By analyzing potential terrorist risks against the water supply, strategic improvements in U.S. water infrastructure security may be achieved, including changes in policy, incorporation of intrusion detection technology, increased surveillance, and increased intelligence. More information can be found on the author's website.
Large-Scale Evacuation introduces the reader to the steps involved in evacuation modelling for towns and cities, from understanding the hazards that can require large-scale evacuations, through understanding how local officials decide to issue evacuation advisories and households decide whether to comply, to transportation simulation and traffic management strategies. The author team has been recognized internationally for their research and consulting experience in the field of evacuations. Collectively, they have 125 years of experience in evacuation, including more than 140 projects for federal and state agencies. The text explains how to model evacuations that use the road transportation network by combining perspectives from social scientists and transportation engineers, fields that have commonly approached evacuation modelling from distinctly different perspectives. In doing so, it offers a step-by-step guide through the key questions needed to model an evacuation and its impacts to the evacuation route system as well as evacuation management strategies for influencing demand and expanding capacity. The authors also demonstrate how to simulate the resulting traffic and evacuation management strategies that can be used to facilitate evacuee movement and reduce unnecessary demand. Case studies, which identify key points to analyze in an evacuation plan, discuss evacuation termination and re-entry, and highlight challenges that someone developing an evacuation plan or model should expect, are also included. This textbook will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students.
The purpose of this book is to share with teachers a successful coaching model that has been researched, designed, piloted, evaluated and used across a range of schools. It is a peer coaching model which teachers use with teachers. It is a model which, as a coach or coachee, both parties will learn from. While the model is directed to teachers, it is equally applicable and transferable to other professions.The book is clear and concise with relevant background information, a step-by-step process, and includes case studies.
In today's world, deep learning source codes and a plethora of open access geospatial images are readily available and easily accessible. However, most people are missing the educational tools to make use of this resource. Deep Learning for Remote Sensing Images with Open Source Software is the first practical book to introduce deep learning techniques using free open source tools for processing real world remote sensing images. The approaches detailed in this book are generic and can be adapted to suit many different applications for remote sensing image processing, including landcover mapping, forestry, urban studies, disaster mapping, image restoration, etc. Written with practitioners and students in mind, this book helps link together the theory and practical use of existing tools and data to apply deep learning techniques on remote sensing images and data. Specific Features of this Book: The first book that explains how to apply deep learning techniques to public, free available data (Spot-7 and Sentinel-2 images, OpenStreetMap vector data), using open source software (QGIS, Orfeo ToolBox, TensorFlow) Presents approaches suited for real world images and data targeting large scale processing and GIS applications Introduces state of the art deep learning architecture families that can be applied to remote sensing world, mainly for landcover mapping, but also for generic approaches (e.g. image restoration) Suited for deep learning beginners and readers with some GIS knowledge. No coding knowledge is required to learn practical skills. Includes deep learning techniques through many step by step remote sensing data processing exercises.
A challenge to the conventional wisdom surrounding financial risk, providing insight into why easy solutions to control the financial system are doomed to fail Finance plays a key role in the prosperity of the modern world-but it also brings grave dangers. We seek to manage those threats with a vast array of sophisticated mathematical tools and techniques of financial risk management. Too often, though, we fail to address the greatest risk-the peril posed by our own behavior. Jon Danielsson argues that critical risk is generated from within, through the interactions of individuals and perpetuated by their beliefs, objectives, abilities, and prejudices. He asserts that the widespread belief that risk originates outside the financial system frustrates our ability to measure and manage it, and the likely consequences of new regulations will help alleviate small-scale risks but, perversely, encourage excessive risk taking. Danielsson uses lessons from past and recent crises to show that diversity is the best way to safeguard our financial system.
Enterprise Risk Management: Advances on its Foundation and Practice relates the fundamental enterprise risk management (ERM) concepts and current generic risk assessment and management principles that have been influential in redefining the risk field over the last decade. It defines ERM with a particular focus on understanding the nexus between risk, uncertainty, knowledge and performance. The book argues that there is critical need for ERM concepts, principles and methods to adapt to the latest and most influential risk management developments, as there are several issues with outdated ERM theories and practices; problems include the inability to effectively and systematically balance both opportunity and downside performance, or relying too much on narrow probability-based perspectives for risk assessment and decision-making. It expands traditional loss-based risk principles into new and innovative performance-risk frameworks, and presents fundamental risk principles that have recently been developed by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). All relevant statistical and risk concepts are clearly explained and interpreted using minimal mathematical notation. The focus of the book is centered around ideas and principles, more than technicalities. The book is primarily intended for risk professionals, researchers and graduate students in the fields of engineering and business, and should also be of interest to executive managers and policy makers with some background in quantitative methods such as statistics.
"Financial Risk Forecasting" is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use - that risk is exogenous - and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com - which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Kids love exploring new ways of solving problems, especially in fun and challenging puzzle formats. In Math and Logic Puzzles That Make Kids Think!, the author presents several variations on Sudoku-the most well-known type of logic puzzle-in an easy-to-use, exciting format perfect for any math classroom. These language-independent logic puzzles provide kids with great problems to stretch how they think and reason. Each puzzle variation utilizes some of the basic strategies of Sudoku puzzles, but each one also draws upon other areas of mathematics-ordering of numbers, properties of geometric shapes, basic operations, or enriched number sense. This book provides teachers with puzzles arranged by difficulty level that can be used to support and enhance students' mathematical investigations. It also provides a new and exciting context for the development of students' deductive reasoning skills, which can lay the foundation for further mathematical exploration. Grades 6-8
From the bestselling author of The Black Swan, a bold book that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer: too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In his inimitable, pugnacious style, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't. As Taleb says, "The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster," and "Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them". |
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