Actuaries have access to a wealth of individual data in pension and insurance portfolios, but rarely use its full potential. This book will pave the way, from methods using aggregate counts to modern developments in survival analysis. Based on the fundamental concept of the hazard rate, Part I shows how and why to build statistical models, based on data at the level of the individual persons in a pension scheme or life insurance portfolio. Extensive use is made of the R statistics package. Smooth models, including regression and spline models in one and two dimensions, are covered in depth in Part II. Finally, Part III uses multiple-state models to extend survival models beyond the simple life/death setting, and includes a brief introduction to the modern counting process approach. Practising actuaries will find this book indispensable, and students will find it helpful when preparing for their professional examinations.

Environmental Enforcement Authorities (EEAs), sometimes called Environmental Protection Agencies (EPAs), are the regulatory, monitoring and enforcement agencies of national, state/provincial and local governments worldwide responsible for implementing, monitoring and enforcing environmental legislation. This one-of-a-kind, authoritative handbook offers a comprehensive assessment of the principles and best practice of EEAs throughout the world with a focus on Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia, east and south-east Asia and various other OECD, transition and developing countries.The book assesses structures, expertise and capacity, financing, permitting, monitoring, inspection, enforcement and EEA performance and future directions. It also identifies best practice for creating or improving EEAs. It offers substantial information for industry on the nature of compliance with environmental regulations as well as vital information for professionals, consultants, NGOs and researchers working at the interface between government EEAs and industry.

An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Hakan Jankensgard delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of "black swan" risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.

'Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed -------- What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected? In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it's something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn't even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed. In Risk: A User's Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He lays out ten dimensions of control which we can adjust at any given time, no matter the context: narrative, bias, action, timing, adaptability, communication, technology, diversity, structure and leadership. Drawing on compelling examples ranging from military history to the business world, and offering infinitely practical exercises to improve preparedness, McChrystal illustrates how these ten factors are almost always in effect - and how, by considering them constantly, individuals and organizations can exert mastery over every conceivable sort of risk that they might face. We may not be able to see into the future, but Risk gives us a framework for improving our resistance and building a strong defense against what we know -- and what we don't. -------- 'A brilliant user's guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right.' - Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking In Bets and How To Decide 'Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, McChrystal's clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible.' - James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy 'An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between.' - Keith Krach, former Undersecretary of State and CEO of DocuSign

Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.

This book outlines risk management theory systematically and comprehensively while distinguishing it from academic fields such as insurance theory. In addition, the book builds a risk financing theory that is independent of insurance theory. Until now, risk management (RM) theory has been discussed while the framework of the theory has remained unclear. However, this book, unlike previous books of this type, provides risk management theory after presenting a framework for it. Enterprise risk management (ERM) is seen differently depending on one's position. For accountants, it is a means for internal control to prevent accounting fraud, whereas for financial institutions, it quantifies the risk that administrators can take to meet supervisory standards. Therefore, most of the ERM outlines are written to suit the intended uses or topics, with no systematic RM overviews. This book discusses a systematic RM theory linked to the framework of it, unlike previous books that were written according to topic. After the Enron scandal in December 2001 and WorldCom accounting fraud in June 2002, several laws were enacted or revised throughout the world, such as the SOX Act(Sarbanes-Oxley Act) in the United States and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law and Companies Act in Japan. In this process, the COSO(Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of Treadway Commission) published their ERM framework, while the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) published their RM framework. The author believes that the competition between these frameworks was an opportunity to systematize RM theory and greatly develop it as an independent discipline from insurance. On the other hand, the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, caused enormous losses. Also, because pandemics and cyber risks are increasing, businesses must have a comprehensive and systematic ERM for these risks associated with their business activities

This book serves as a technical yet practical risk management manual for professionals working with water and wastewater organizations. It provides readers with a functional comprehension of water and wastewater operations as well as a broad understanding of industry derivations and various stakeholder interconnectivity. This knowledge is imperative, as most administrative professionals are proficient in their respective areas of expertise but sometimes lack fluency on the broader technical aspects of their organization's purpose, operations, and externalities. It also examines risk management best practices and provides an actionable review of doing the right thing, the right way, every time through a combination of core risk management principles. These include enterprise, strategic, operational, and reputational risk management, as well as risk assessments, risk/frequency matrixes, checklists, rules, and decision-making processes. Finally, the book addresses the importance of risk transfer through insurance policies and provides best practices for the prudent selection of these policies across different scenarios. Features: Provides an understanding of water and wastewater technical operations to properly implement sound risk management and insurance programs. Emphasizes the importance of building well-designed, resilient systems, such as policies, processes, procedures, protocol, rules, and checklists that are up to date and fully implemented across a business. Offers a detailed look into insurance policy terms and conditions and includes practical checklists to assist readers in structuring and negotiating their own policies. Handbook of Risk and Insurance Strategies for Certified Public Risk Officers and Other Water Professionals combines practical knowledge of technical water/wastewater operations along with the core subjects of risk management and insurance for practicing and aspiring professionals charged with handling these vital tasks for their organizations. Readers will also gain invaluable perspective and knowledge on best-in-class risk management and insurance practices in the water and wastewater industries.

Planning and management is increasingly problematic in the real-world environment of spiralling change and uncertainty. Knowledge is incomplete, values are in dispute and the decisions of others are often unpredictable.

Problem structuring methods (PSMs) are now widely accepted within Operational Research and the systems movement, and have generated an impressive record of high-profile applications. This new edition provides easier access to PSMs. Each of five methods is presented from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. The justification for each approach is explained, and an illustration of applying each method is given in a practical case study. New topics in line with the many advances in the field of problem structuring methods are explored and multimethodology is introduced for the first time.

This book does not peddle methods for optimum solutions, but instead shows you how to facilitate an enriched and fluid decision-making process. Participatory methods are explained to assist the formulation and re-formulation of problem solving in an uncertain world.

Offering contributions from leading thinkers in the field and building on the success of the first edition, this theoretical guide and practical source will prove invaluable to students of management, systems and OR and to practitioners negotiating real-life problems in today's complex, conflicting and uncertain business climate.

Reviews of the first edition:

'.....probably the most referenced book by JORS authors over the last 10 years.'
J. Ranyard, Journal of Operational Research Society 51 (12), 2001

' . . . a thought provoking collection of articles, delivering a strong message about the way decision analysis is moving.'
Helen Couclelis, University of California at Santa Barbara, USA

' . . .sets out extremely clearly what soft OR is about . . . the editor and authors deserve all credit.'
M.C. Jackson, Systems Practice

Behind heart disease and cancer, medical error is now listed as one of the leading causes of death. Of the many medical errors that may lead to injury and death, diagnostic failure is regarded as the most significant. Generally, the majority of diagnostic failures are attributed to the clinicians directly involved with the patient, and to a lesser extent, the system in which they work. In turn, the majority of errors made by clinicians are due to decision making failures manifested by various departures from rationality. Of all the medical environments in which patients are seen and diagnosed, the emergency department is the most challenging. It has been described as a "wicked" environment where illness and disease may range from minor ailments and complaints to severe, life-threatening disorders. The Cognitive Autopsy is a novel strategy towards understanding medical error and diagnostic failure in 42 clinical cases with which the author was directly involved or became aware of at the time. Essentially, it describes a cognitive approach towards root cause analysis of medical adverse events or near misses. Whereas root cause analysis typically focuses on the observable and measurable aspects of adverse events, the cognitive autopsy attempts to identify covert cognitive processes that may have contributed to outcomes. In this clinical setting, no cognitive process is directly observable but must be inferred from the behavior of the individual clinician. The book illustrates unequivocally that chief among these cognitive processes are cognitive biases and other flaws in decision making, rather than knowledge deficits.

The Handbook of Rational and Social Choice provides an overview of issues arising in work on the foundations of decision theory and social choice over the past three decades. Drawing on work by economic theorists mainly, but also with contributions from political science, philosophy and psychology, the collection shows how the related areas of decision theory and social choice have developed in their applications and moved well beyond the basic models of expected utility and utilitarian approaches to welfare economics.
Containing twenty-three contributions, in many cases by leading figures in their fields, the handbook shows how the normative foundations of economics have changed dramatically as more general and explicit models of utility and group choice have been developed. This is perhaps the first time these developments have been brought together in a manner that seeks to identify and make accessible the recent themes and developments that have been of particular interest to researchers in recent years. The collection will be of particular value to researchers in economics with interests in utility or welfare but it will also be of interest to any social scientist or philosopher interested in theories of rationality or group decision-making.

There is an increasing dissatisfaction about how risk is regulated, leading to vivid debates about the use of 'risk assessment' and 'precaution'. As a result, academics, government officials and industry leaders are calling for new approaches and fresh ideas. This book provides a historical and topical perspective on the alternative concept of 'Tolerability of Risk' and its concrete regulatory applications. In the UK, Tolerability of Risk has been developed into a sophisticated framework, particularly within the health and safety sectors. It is expected to guide decision-makers when applying their legal obligation of keeping risks as low as practically reasonable. Could Tolerability of Risk become a wider source of inspiration across the full scope of risk analysis and management? Written by leading academics and risk practitioners from industry and government, The Tolerability of Risk presents a summary of theoretical perspectives on risk approaches, providing a detailed elicitation of the methods and approaches used to build the Tolerability of Risk framework and examining the prospect of universal application of that framework. From nuclear power to environmental pollution, climate change and drug testing, the Tolerability of Risk framework may offer a workable, pragmatic solution for balancing risks against the costs involved in controlling them, as well as developing the institutional capacity to make effective decisions in all jurisdictions worldwide.

Nils Brunsson is one of the leading European organization theorists who has written and researched decision-making in organizations. He has often questioned the rationality of decision-making, and argued that it is as important to understand other consequences of decision-making apart from choice - such things as mobilizing action, allocating responsibility, and legitimizing organizations. These consequences of decisions can influence decision-making and the assumptions about feasible norms that provide their context. Decisions often run counter to actions and are part of what Brunsson calls organizational hypocrisy. Decisions can substitute for action, or decrease the probability of the action they call for. The norm of rationality is far from obvious: sometimes decision-makers can recommend systematic irrationality. This book collects together a wide-range of Nils Brunsson's most important writing on decision-making, brought together in one volume for the first time, with an introduction from the author.

From natural disasters to cyber-attacks to global pandemics, the modern risk environment is highly complex and challenges our fundamental understanding of risk and crisis management. All senior risk and crisis managers face a similar challenge: maximizing their organization's ability to prepare for a potential high-impact event. Blending practical insights with rigorous research, Strategic Risk and Crisis Management provides a range of realistic solutions for any operational environment. It introduces concepts, frameworks and processes that will allow businesses to not only survive but respond and recover at a time of maximum chaos and confusion. Authored by a recognized global authority on the strategic management of complex events, the book covers the integration of multiple stakeholders and the importance of information exchange and critical decision-making under pressure at strategic, tactical and operational levels. It also includes material on leadership, sense-making, resilience, wicked problems and the challenges of global urban resilience, as well as case studies with detailed analysis of organizational failures and the lessons learned, including COVID-19, the WannaCry attack, the Texas snowstorm, and the Gatwick Airport Drone Incident. Strategic Risk and Crisis Management is an essential read for professionals working in security, risk, crisis management and emergency response. It will also be a valuable text for university students taking modules on security, risk, emergency response and crisis management.

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.

Featuring a substantial new introduction and two new chapters in the Postscript, this new edition makes one of the most significant works on power available in paperback and online for the first time. The author extensively engages with a body of new literature to elucidate and expand upon the original work, using rational choice theory to provide: * An examination of how, due to the collective action problem, groups can be powerless despite not facing any resistance * Timely engagement with feminist accounts of power * An explanation of the relationship of structure and agency and how to measure power comparatively across societies This book's unique interaction with both classical and contemporary debates makes it an essential resource for anyone teaching or studying power in the disciplines of sociology, philosophy, politics or international relations.

Game theory explains how to make good choices when different decision makers have conflicting interests. The classical approach assumes that decision makers are committed to making the best choices for themselves regardless of the effect on others, but such an approach is less appropriate when cooperation, compromise and negotiation are important. This book describes conditional games, a form of game theory that accommodates multiple stakeholder decision-making scenarios where cooperation and negotiation are significant issues and where notions of concordant group behavior are important. Using classical binary preference relations as a point of departure, the book extends the concept of a preference ordering that permits stakeholders to modulate their preferences as functions of the preferences of others. As these conditional preferences propagate through a group of decision makers, they create social bonds that lead to notions of group concordance. This book is intended for all students and researchers of decision theory and game theory.

While there are many features of a response-to-intervention framework, two stand out as solid reasons why school personnel should be familiar with its basic structure. One reason is that it provides a sound protocol to account for the performance of every student. A second reason is that it provides a structure that is useful for figuring out how to refine instruction so that it is individualized to meet each student's needs. While this book can be useful to both beginning and experienced teachers, as well as other professionals who provide direct and indirect services to students, it has been written first and foremost with preservice teachers in mind. It should prove to be useful to these teachers by enabling them to identify the following: 1. the knowledge and skills they need to acquire in their preparation program, 2. the questions they need to be prepared to ask and answer during a job interview, and 3. the work they need to perform in the role they will fill in a school that uses a response-to-intervention framework.

This volume offers new, convincing empirical evidence on topical risk- and risk management-related issues in diverse settings, using an interdisciplinary approach. The authors advance compelling arguments, firmly anchored to well-accepted theoretical frameworks, while adopting either qualitative or quantitative research methodologies. The book presents interviews and surveys with risk managers to gather insights on risk management and risk disclosure in practice. Additionally, the book collects and analyzes information contained in public reports to capture risk disclosure and perceptions on risk management impacts on companies' internal organization. It sheds light on financial and market values to understand the effect of risk management on actual and perceived firm's performance, respectively. Further, it examines the impacts of risk and risk management on society and the economy. The book improves awareness and advances knowledge on the complex and changeable risk and risk management fields of study. It interweaves among topical, up-to-date issues, peculiar, under-investigated contexts, and differentiated, complementary viewpoints on the same themes. Therefore, the book is a must-read for scholars and researchers, as well as practitioners and policy makers, interested in a better understanding of risk and risk management studies in different fields.